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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    I think there is decent room for some criticism, but the flexibility argument is weak. At some point you have to actually try to build a team, and you can't always build a team out of cheapo mid level guys. Put another way there is a practical limit to the number of trades and FAs you can sign in an offseason. If you look at the pieces and Christina Karl suggestion that the Brewers could still deal one of Hart or Prince depending on the teams preference (short or medium term contract) there's quite a bit of roster flexibility.
  2. igor67
    I thought Hart was on his way to washing out at the start of the year as well, however while I suspect this is probably his career year, I don't think there is a go In trying to assess the legitimacy of a breakout season vs. fluke I look for things like pedigree. Hart had good minor league totals and projections on the power and batting average side. Is it a batting average driven fluke, as others have posted it doesn't seem to be. What is the spike coming in? In this case power and it looks like doubles are turning into HRs, something that tends to stick a little more from one season to the next and power can develop later. Lastly is there a physical explanation, in this case Corey's vision has arguably helped him keep the walks from being more selective and drive the ball more. I'd guess maybe an .840-.850 OPS next year.
  3. igor67
    I was looking at Ryan Ludwick and he or a player like him I think would be the key to making this work. Solid bat and very good OF defense. I think Corey is the better bet to be a good 1st basemen, but figure out away to get Ludwick, slot Gamel in at third and see what Prince brings. I see only a modest drop off in offense (and Cain, Lucroy, Escobar, and Gamel is a lot more potential upside) with defensive improvements at 3 or 4 positions (I'd argue for improvement from Escobar). Then I think there is a good chance of finding a pitcher or two for the rotation that would be good enough.
  4. igor67
    More ammo to consider seeing what Casey would fetch as a cheap guy who can actually hit might bring.
  5. igor67
    Actually if you think about the implications of the rotation analysis it pretty much demonstrates that going it all on prospects doesn't really work either. Giants and Rays that's it. The Rays benefited from years of drafting all the way at the top and the Giants frankly could be this decades A's who have a decent approach, but largely make the strategy look like a better bet than it is because of getting lucky in the draft. I found the no-trade clause data interesting. That really boxes in viable strategies. Further it needs to be clear that in practice anybody advocating a nearly strict draft and develop strategy cannot be realistically planning on having a competitive team until at least 2013, and what bats will we have then? While a good chunk of the information presented is not radically new (and why would Melvin release the really novel parts anyway?) it does seriously point to trying to solve what for most teams is a whack-a-mole style problem. Hopefully the health part works out and that will solve many issues.
  6. igor67
    I want to expand on Xcellence's comment. The price in prospects for major leaguers seems to have gotten quite low, dare I say that major leaguers are undervalued? The problem I'm seeing is that the number of pitchers who would be here for a couple of years and make a difference has shrunken dramatically. Maybe it will continue into the offseason and Melvin can find a way to trade up on the starting pitching and defense fronts.
  7. igor67
    Monty I like your approach though I still worry about the defense is their another 3rd base option that would help out the IF? If the rumored Texas proposals are close that could be a pretty good plan of attack.
  8. igor67
    My bigger concern is that looking at the secondary states on Westbrook and Jackson really suggests that in front of the Brewers defense they post similar numbers to Parra and Bush. And unless we get a bunch of real top level starters I think that the defense will continue to make everyone look bad.
  9. igor67
    There are some interesting ideas in there. I also tend to agree that Haren at the price he went for would have made this idea more doable. I think the rotation has enough strikeout guys to make a difference over the defense, but I'd be concerned about the bullpen with 3 rookies, two of whom have control concerns.
  10. igor67
    Since the rumors are pretty cold, and there appears to be a nonzero chance Prince and Hart will be around for awhile. I put forward the simple challenge how do you retool for next year to give the team a good shot at the playoffs? Ground rules: 1) you can make 2 smaller deals before this deadline, but they can't involve Hart or Prince. 2) Payroll has to be 90 million or under for next year. 3) You can make other trades, but may only deal 1 of Prince or Hart in the offseason (don't have to deal either). Please note that this doesn't imply I think this is the best strategy. I'm interested in trying to see how this could play out, so try to refrain from simple I don't think that will work comments.
  11. igor67
    I agree let's keep the train rolling. It definitely seems that the farm system has turned things around a bit after such a horrible across the board start.
  12. igor67
    I agree even if you try to retool in your trading strategy, you can still invest some big league adjustment ABs in guys like Gamel, Katin, and Cain. Katin in particular is probably not a regular, but as a high K guy should get an extended look to see if he can put enough together to be a bench guy.
  13. igor67
    For what it's worth with the high number of games left between the Reds and the Cards. A really good Brewers record has a nice shift in the odds of those teams only playing .500. It also seems like they have both played .500 ball the last month or so. It's still a very low percentage bet.
  14. igor67
    I'll agree that Hoffman an Bush could potentially make it through waivers. Riske maybe but not because of the money as much as not too many people bothering to block a middle reliever. I'm skeptical that the best deal wouldn't be right now. Two pennant races vs. one is a big value difference on top of the recent spat of OF injuries means that those two are the top bats out there. I could be led to believe that the deals were subpar because everyone was so tight fisted with their prospects that we're better off drafting our own, but I wouldn't expect that to change in the offseason or at next year's deadline.
  15. igor67
    I don't think Cain's OBP is driven by any fear of him as a slugger, and his power out put isn't so low that I see pitcher's just grooving him stuff like a Jason Tyner. He could very easily be the classic under rated player because he does everything OK to kind of good, but nothing stands out. On the flip side he does have enough tools that he could still surprise and develop some refinement on the batting side and have a nice power spike (or perhaps a batting average spike) that would make him very valuable.
  16. igor67
    Hart if he can proove he's good to go in a couple of days may now be very interesting to the Tigers. Not only do they need the bat with Ordonez down, but his injury should prevent his option from vesting, so that puts the Tigers in a position to look at Hart as a longer term option. My biggest concern is that there are actually so many players to deal that Melvin can't get all of them done that should be. We can debate the merits of shooting for a revamp next year or 2012, but at a minimum: Bush, Hoffman, Riske, Counsell, Edmonds, and at least 1 of Hart or Fielder needs to be dealt. If you can't find takers for all of the spare parts it's not the end of the world, but each is an opportunity to get a little bit better in future years, and all have at least some value (even if in Hoffman's case it might just be salary relief).
  17. igor67
    We got Josh Butler for Gross. It's a bit of a crapshoot on the type of pitching prospect you could get back, but it's better than nothing.
  18. igor67
    I'd take another Josh Butler for Edmonds. He could end up being easier to trade because he'd only take 1 prospect and costs nothing if you are looking to add some offense.
  19. igor67
    RE: Don Money Audio If Money's observation is correct a right handed 1st basemen could help Gamel a lot. On the other hand if those are Money's reports it makes it less likely that the organization will try to keep him at third.
  20. igor67
    I doubt that Axford is that completely established as a proven closer after just a couple of months. To say nothing of needing to hold onto pitchers. If he keeps going through next year than he gets that big value that might get a nice over payment.
  21. igor67
    I'm skeptical that this pat offseason was the sell high point for Casey. His performance was too out of character to get a big bite after just one year. He slid back this year, but has still been solid and productive at the plate and still has a lot of cheap years, I think he is much more valuable to more teams now that he's shown his bat won't completely disappear. Green is also heating up at the plate, so you've got 2 solid options putting Casey at first is not one of them, basically it will only highlight his defensive shortcomings and tend to pigeonhole him into a role as a averagish bat.
  22. igor67
    To get the value the Brewers are looking for this type of deal is basically a complete empty the farm type deal, I just don't know how many teams that would make sense for as a strategy. The Giants and Angels are the only two teams I can think of that need both the big offensive surge and need it at first and the OF.
  23. igor67
    I would explore what he fetches on the trade market, and bring up Gamel if there is good value. Given the mediocre defense Casey isn't that hard to replace value wise. In this world where cost controlled players might be over valued I'd see if there's a team looking for more bat and is attracted by his low cost as well. Green seems to be coming a long a bit, and you might even be able to see if Lawrie could shift over if your not satisfied with Gamel. Basically he's done enough to be a proven hitter, while still having that shiny cheap label. Those two things aren't commonly found on the market.
  24. igor67
    I like Fielder, I do think he is a great talent. However I would find it hard as a GM to invest overmuch in Fielder stock, with such a cheaper comparable model available in Dunn. Also given the trend we've seen in slugging low defense OFs I wonder. Seven years does sound like too many, given all the body type questions (valid or not). I'll bite and guess someone agrees to go 6 years and over 20 million per. I like davego's figure 6 for 135 million which includes buying out a 7th year for a few million.
  25. igor67
    Regressing triples to doubles for a 20 year old and estimating OPS seems awfully dubious, since players add power as they age. At worst it would be as accurate to turn most of those triples into HRs and re figure his OPS. Further his trajectory looks more like rapid growth than a plateau in production. He might not project as high as Rickie did when they were both drafted, but I think it's safe to say that Weeks isn't going morph into Chase Utley anymore. He's still been very good this year, but at a level that seems well within Lawrie's reach.
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