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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    At some point shouldn't Braun's excellent athleticism turn him into at least an average OFer?
  2. igor67
    I still think he should have offered it to Cameron with the idea in the back of his mind that he can turn around and drop Hart, so the salaries become much closer and we keep the superior player in the OF.
  3. igor67
    I'm far from convinced that emptying the farm of Impact potential bats is a good move. I like the idea of having two young guns in the rotation, but I also worry about not having a potential .900 OPS bat coming up through the system. Toss some of our pitchers in instead of all the bats.
  4. igor67
    I don't mind giving up some players for another young high quality starter, but 3 top 15 prospects seems a little steep.
  5. igor67
    I think it's the praise pattern that I find confusing from the Brewers. I can completely understand if they felt that Lucroy jumped Salome in prospect status this year. But Salome's tools for catcher are still great, and he has produced recently. The lack of them saying he had an off year, but we still think he can be both a complete catcher and an offensive force (or something like that) puzzles me. From the outside it looks like a very substantial downgrade.
  6. igor67
    Given that elite players are incredibly scarce I think by and large the best strategy for a small market team is to pay those guys the going rate (because you need a couple of truly elite players to have a shot) and then use the farm system and low end free agency to get good value elsewhere across the diamond. I don't buy into the notion that just because in the immediate term we could get equal value for Prince it's the best move. Trying to fill out a team with all above average players is not an enduring strategy. Sooner or later you are going to find your self stuck with a merely average player somewhere on that 25 man roster. Having intensely watched the Brewers drafting efforts over the last decade it's clear to me that good scouting can get you lots of good players. What they can never really predict though with great accuracy is which ones are going to hit that top level. On the other hand I've seen the fortunes of the farm system rise to the point that it can supply at least average players at every position fairly consistently.
  7. igor67
    What if you brokered a deal for both Lowe and Vasquez while giving Suppan and Hart back? What else do you think would need to be added on our side? Casey and Jeffress?
  8. igor67
    Yankees led all of baseball in HRs, Phillies were first in the NL and 3rd in all of baseball in HRs, The two teams finished 1st and 4th in runs scored, Brewers finished 9th. On the pitching side Phillies finished 7th in runs allowed, the Yankees 14th in runs allowed. My point was very simple pitching and defense can win championships, but ti is not the only way. The Yankees had the best offense in the league, very mediocre defense (Cano, Jeter Posada all mediocre to below average defenders up the middle) and good enough pitching. The Phillies actually were more balanced in terms of being good offense and pitching wise.
  9. igor67
    I'm pretty sure the Yankees just won a World Series by having a strikeout prone, homer heavy line-up of mediocre aging defenders and a pitching staff heavily dependent on a couple of strikeout pitchers. And I'm pretty sure that was more or less the formula the Phillies had the year before.
  10. igor67
    Going backwards a ways in the thread ILUVDaBush, I was not trying to have it both ways I was making very different points about the two players (Hardy has more value then given credit for, and when projecting we have to replace Cameron's actual production). I don't generally dispute the notion that Escobar is a good bet to match or Exceed JJ's overall production last year. It is entirely possible I am wrong about Gomez, but he falls directly into exactly the kind of high risk high reward prospect that needs to prove his way up the ladder and not just be handed promotions and be lauded with fluffy scout speak. All of these guys are supposed to "develop power later" and "learn the strikezone" and "are showing signs of more power in BP". Now maybe Melvin really has his pulse on the market and has decided that his only chance to get over the hump is to roll the dice and risk having a team that falls below .500. I can respect that he looked rationally at his current options and decided that his choices of potentials deals across the board and ways to improve for next year were all mediocre looking. I don't believe that at this point, but it's a possibility. I wonder if he can find a way to land Zambrano with this windfall?
  11. igor67
    It is incorrect to say that we don't have enough info on Gomez. He's a super 2, which means essentially 2 full years of Major league ABs none of which have been good compared to Hardy who has had well above average offensive years 2 of the last 3 seasons. And going from a well above average to defender to one of the two best is not a major upgrade, it's a small upgrade. And yes Cameron was going to get much closer to average one of these years, but last year he wasn't and it's last years contribution that we have to try and replace to gauge how well the team will do. Keeping him meant projecting only modest age decline on offense and defense. On the offensive side were replacing Cameron with Billy Hall. Which incidently someone else listed above to incorrectly argue the line-up would be about the same because they did not account for actually playing time last year, and then had McGee replacing someone else's contribution even though he gave us 300 great ABs that weren't accounted for. What about resigning Cameron to play RF? If your going to go defense why not go all out and get a better bat than Hart in the line-up? The marginal cost is only about 5 million. Would there be a better offense, defense combo RF out there?
  12. igor67
    A number of thoughts: Carlos Gomez: Melvin getting his fix of speed develops late. Sorry though Doug whom has that theory worked for Podsednik? 14 million saved: the most plausible idea suggested so far for spending this windfall on pitching now that we have little in the way of trading chips has been Harang. If we pick up Harang for a song and his salary my attitude will improve, but at this point I'm not seeing where the money is going to be all that useful with one of our 2 major trading chips gone. We have a serious line-up issue now. Not in a sky is falling kind of way, but can you really justify running out 3 gigantic question marks in Gomex, LuCroy, and Escobar? A largely veteran line-up you can plug LuCroy and Escobar in make all the right public statements to take the pressure off and then wait to see them hit reasonable projections. And in those cases reasonable projections could easily be a wash with the guys they are replacing. Now though you need to count on those spots improving to balance the blackhole that is Gomez.
  13. igor67
    I am certainly willing to stick with a pitcher through injury and what not, but for these big armed guys that spend multiple years battling different kinds of arm issues at some point it seems more prudent to just try and get the big power arm into the bullpen and see if at least you can get a couple of years in the big leagues out of them before their arm gives out. I put Braddock in that category.
  14. igor67
    I'm wondering how many of these injury prone pitchers we could snag relatively cheap? Say Bedard, Webb, and Sheets? It's way too many pitchers if everyone is healthy, but I'm not worried about Suppan or Looper being annoyed if they start the year in the pen. You know that your going to have these guys going down at some point, but there's also a good chance of getting stretches of of very good pitching out of more people than just Yo without hoping we can find the perfect match up to trade Hardy. It's not as clean of a solution as picking up another ace type guy, but it gets more talent in the rotation.
  15. igor67
    The Babe Ruth of announcers
  16. igor67
    The free agent market for pitching is pretty weak, so I'm not sure how directly Cameron's salary is tied to better pitchers.
  17. igor67
    There is a speed element to reaching on errors, and it does reflect making contact. Given that defense has improved quite a bit overtime and scoring has seemingly become very subjective reaching on an error isn't that different from a single (ball in play get to first safely other runners advance). I'm even guessing that the increased value for the error is due to a higher likelihood of other runners advancing an extra base on the error than a normal single.
  18. igor67
    Gamel has always had the tools to be an above average defender with his range, and he finally seemed to really harness that while he was up. I don't think it's a very good use of resources to move premium bats who are average defensively (which is what he showed at the MLB level) down the defensive spectrum. As the season has gone on we've seen Casey regress more towards a reasonable projection based on his minor league numbers. Given that we have the Hurricane and Heether I see little reason not to see if you can dangle that young established major leaguer that everyone wants and get something on the pitching side along with or in separate deals for Hardy. Maybe even Hart as well. Hart is interesting because he kind of sort of hit just well enough to go with pretty good RF defense to be a justifiable cog. And the injury is probably going to reduce his arby raise. With out spending a lot more money at the position or trading some substantial value we are unlikely to get a lot more overall production (see the Dunn discussion on the value of Hart's defense). I would say that for the most part because we've had a number of players really produce beyond expectations on the infield, going to Gamel and Weeks likely won't net us any more offense at those positions over this season (though more than other combinations for next year). I would expect that JJ or Hardy would outhit what he did this year however, and we had better make some strides at catcher (which would be really hard not to do with any solution). Still we aren't going to hit our way back into a playoff team, though it could get us back comfortably over .500.
  19. igor67
    I think it's fair to say that neither has shown definite signs they are ready to excel at the MLB level right away next year, but their minor league translations are good enough to suggest that they can outhit Kendall by a fair margin right away. So in the end it's hard for me to see how it is a better call to throw some extra money at a catcher off the free agent market, who at best is likely to be only a modest improvement over the best guess of what Salome or Lucroy can give you. There are just so many other needs that we don't have an in house option right now that makes us better for next year I don't see it as a good use of money. And then you factor in the likelihood that if you start Lucroy and Salome in AAA at least one of them is likely to do well enough by midyear to make a case for just jettisoning (or letting him block) a catcher who is ready.
  20. igor67
    I still think all things considered for next year Salome and Lucroy are close enough to let them have an open competition to make the club in the spring. Hopefully Rivera continues to hit, because I think his hitting will make it easier to break the Kendall addiction and go with a rookie for a good chunk of the games.
  21. igor67
    1) have a great offense. 2) have atleast OK enough pitching to win a lot. 3) Have atleast 1 guy you can point to as a base stealer. All 3 of these are designed to eliminate complaints, which is usually what the consistent offense argument is all about. a close loss right before or after a blow-out win naturally conjures the idea of transfering the runs to have won another game. If you have a great offense it's hard to complain, you become less motivated with fewer losses, and you aren't distracted by Tim Mccarver calling the game on Fox if you havethat base stealing threat at the top he can talk about.
  22. igor67
    Cam might be pricey, but it's not clear we have a replacement. His offense defense combo is hard to beat this side of Carlos Beltran. Hart and Hardy are the most replaceable guys who might bring something back on the pitching side and also free up some money. One of the best things that could happen the rest of the year would be for Parra to continue to settle in.
  23. igor67
    I'd want to do some work, and I would have at least some concern about how our young catchers were going to be worked in, but at this point neither one has had a year that really forces the issue. I'm kind of amenable to the Snyder angle with maybe a fringy player thrown in. Given limited options for improvement at that position it makes more sens to bring in a potential solution and spread out that cost over 2 years. Worst case your back to having to cut the guy and eat some salary. It's much easier to do that as the price tag gets smaller, and the organizational attachment is less. There is also the idea that bad contracts get easier to unload in smaller doses.
  24. igor67
    Clearly we aren't going to see Kendall dislodged this year. However for next year are there any free agent options that would be better than just letting LuCroy and Salome compete in the Spring? There are strengths and weaknesses to both players (as long as I don't have to hear anymore nonsense about how good of a game Kendall calls). I suspect that barring something fairly dramatic we would be unlikely to see Salome win. A combination of him not having really mashed in AAA the way that makes him a big difference maker yet, and the continued questions on the defense make it seem unlikely they'd go that route (counting spring and fall league there are however about 3 months to change that). LuCroy on the other hand gives you that nice conservative solid defense. So the question is what to expect offensively. Just taking his current AA numbers and translating them for difficulty gives a player whose offense would have already generated 5 more runs than Kendall. If you take a stab at a Peak performance (Baseball Prospectus) you get a current increase of between 10-15 runs. If you adjusted those numbers for an entire season you have to be figuring on a conservative increase in offense of about 10 runs up to 20 runs on the high side. And of course you save 5 million on Kendall's salary. Any other free agent ideas.
  25. igor67
    I refuse to play the game and deal Lawrie, Improve on my shot in a crowded race and have a lot of options for coming on even stronger next year.
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