igor67
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Everything posted by igor67
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Link Report for Games of Tuesday, July 21st
igor67 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I don't really think it's fair that Helena has to play a team that gets ghost runners http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif -
JM Gold, David Krynzel, Jeff Pickler and the Rights to Rashard Griffith. That's 2 numbers ones a number 2 and a high OBP guy http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Incorporating all of the existing data and Gamel playing third in Milwaukee is still the best win now move. To a very real extent the idea that Counsel and Casey are better alternatives is based on hot streaks that have now faded. Their numbers still look solid and they haven't fallen apart be any stretch, but they've also been performing at more realistic levels. While Gamel has hardly failed in his appearance despite being asked to do a number of things he's never done before. There a small argument to be made for giving him a couple of weeks to make adjustments in the minors, but that really is scarcely any different than the adjustments that other guys have to make all the time. The difference is that with sporadic playing time Gamel's adjustment period is being stretched out over a period of months instead of a few weeks like a normal player. Betting that Lopez, Casey, and Craig will out play him is pretty risky.
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I am never really comfortable being in a position where supporting a trade is contingent on management refusing to do something else. On balance I don't feel we gave up that much. Cole had a down year at Nashville which doesn't really help his case to make it as a bench bat. A ball pitchers long on promise, but shorter on results also don't worry me too much. I'm just not that convinced that we come out ahead on the offensive side vs. other internal options. I can slightly understand not calling up Hernan since he's been up before if ever so briefly. I can't see especially with Macha being concerned about Casey's defense because of the knee why Heether doesn't get called up and let Casey take a rest to heal.
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Zach Braddock (Update: Ailing Shoulder-Reply #21)
igor67 replied to PrimeTime955's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I vote for a vicious hang nail. I'd say this could prove as a fair reminder that while Zach has crazy good potential he's not exactly the worst guy in the world to deal if something good comes along. -
I think one of the early misses of the sabermetric movement was the actual difficulty of coming off the bench. This is a sport based all on timing on the offensive side. One where guys spend years of their lives grinding it out everyday and then suddenly the big shot comes and they have to wait days in between ABs? I can believe that veteran bench guys have an edge in having learned how to handle that, but it is still a challenge in the best of circumstances. I think Macha's biggest weakness has been figuring out a system where he can keep guys fresh and regular playing time. Your fate literally seems to have rested on your first 10 ABs make a good showing and you'll be part of the regular pinch hitting and spot start club. Don't any you'll be relegated to the end of the bench where you'll likely do worse as you get fewer and fewer ABs. I really can't claim to understand or see how Macha has tried to maximize his bench at all other than trying to juggle playing time for hot bats.
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I like the discounted win value, the real trick is that different teams should have very different weighting schemes for their win amortization. For Boston and Yankees as perenial contenders you could argue that wins are wins with maybe a slight discount representing future uncertainty. While to rebuilding teams current and even next year wins might be relatively worthless compared to wins when they might be more competitive. And to almost anybody in the NL central wins now should be worth a fair bit because the marginal gain in terms of increased playoff odds is pretty high.
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I'm not anti-Dana White (nor necessairly pro either), but you just can't believe anything that comes out of his mouth at face value. The money thing is hard to guage because he has largely stuck to his guns on not getting into huge bidding wars for the star of the month. Considering he's still standing and truthfully I don't see that he can't survive without Fedor.
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I see Suppan as perfectly consistent with the old way of doing things. We'll sign a guy whose name recognition is bigger than his impact. I've been mildly surprised because he's managing to hold onto some value and has yet to decline that last step from 4th starter to emergency 6th starter.
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Unless White cheaps out you've got to figure that at this point he could easily out bid Affliction right? The pay per views have some serious momentum in a tough economy. Multiple gate draws in different divisions. Unless Fedor decides he likes the crown without the threat.
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Any ideas who a good match would be for Lesnar at this point? I would think a bulky striker of some kind who has a solid takedown defense might give an interesting fight.
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In retrospect I almost feel a lost opportunity. Dumping Hall for half the prospects would have been a great deal, it would have never occurred to me that someone else might be interested enough to actually take the contract though without giving a bad one back.
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The players acquired only have to go on the 40-man roster of the Blue Jays if they are already on the 40-man. I don't really see that as too much of an issue. I would be surprised if more than 2 of the players the Jays get need a 40-man spot right away, and they are already freeing 1 spot with Roy leaving. I think it's safe to assume that JP is hoping whomever he acquires is going to be more worth a 40-man spot than some random depth/filler/ 4A type player. Guys in the lower minors generally haven't been around long enough to have to be on the 40-man.
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It's amazing to see two separate trades on the same day that were complete ripoffs. We don't we go for the trifecta and offer Jeffress, Dykstra, Hall, and Katin for Halladay http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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I think the scouts are largely guessing. It's not like they get guys who just shift to second base from catching all that often. It's easy to say he doesn't look right based on his frame and guess he won't stick it's the low risk thing to say, so at this point I don't put a lot of stock in it. Next year will be much more informative.
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You don't want to clear the house of the lower level pitchers, but I'd be hard pressed to reject a trade idea for Halladay on the basis of us including any two pitchers in our system. There's probably a combination or two I'd hesitate on, but the failure rate on pitchers is so high that 1.5 years of Halladay is probably the best we could expect out of 2 pitching prospects. I could definitely see a package around say Lawrie, Ordorizzi, and Braddock giving Toronto a lot of what they are looking for and certainly not crippling us.
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Career totals for Sanchez .302/.338/.424. Again those aren't bad for a second basemen, but he's not a clear upgrade over Casey or what you would expect out of Heether. The .300 hitter part is just for show. He's essentially an established version of the Hurricane at his ceiling. There's probably a 50-60% chance that Sanchez hits better than Casey over the rest of the season, which also means there's a 40-50% chance he hits worse with most outcomes being a close call. You have to think about players not just being their current stat lines or their career stat lines, but also their performance variance and Sanchez's are pretty big (190 OPS points best to worst season all in the last 3 years!). On Dye that would be a very interesting stone cold win now move. Stack Gamel in the two spot and Dye 5th. They would score some serious runs.
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That's also not that much different than what Casey is giving us, and well above his last two seasons. This year represents him maxing out his talent, not what you could really expect him to give us the rest of the way or next year. Now as a challenge trade if you could find a RF to swap with Hart that could give you that it's an interesting proposition.
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You have to give to get (Fielder to ? this offseason)
igor67 replied to Hammer's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think everyone has the general sense of it. The Brewers right now have a few premium players and Fielder is one of them. They are the guys that you hold onto and generally pay the big bucks to. The strength of the farm system is a lot of guys who you can fill in cheaply around your premium guys, or who you can deal for mid-priced veterans to do the same thing in the short term. If you hold Fielder having locked in Braun you can keep a healthy string of competitive baseball going as long as you avoid getting locked into long term contracts for a number of underperformers, and you cycle in prospects a few here and there. If a Gamel or Lawrie really develops into that next set of elite player you can keep the run going, if not you still are looking at a 5-6 year run of relevance. If you dealt Prince you'd need someone back who is an equal level difference maker or Gamel has to turn into a consistent .900+ OPS guy to really have a good shot at staying afloat. -
Why do we want another second basemen with a solid, but unspectacular bat?
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I wouldn't mind seeing if one could do a creative package for Wells and Halladay except that the defensive stats suggest he is well below average as a CFer. An averagish or slightly above bat and below average defense screams albatross even more so than the money. I suspect that in the end despite a fair amount of speculation I think the package JP actually gets has only 1 premium prospect and then a number of second tier guys. We have a lot of depth on the second tier of guys that can be dealt without "gutting" the system, so I think we can be competitive. Based on last year if we are going to land him I suspect we'll know by the end of the All-star break. Doug will put forth his best offer to get that boost coming out of the break and if that's not good enough he'll switch gears.
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I've only ever seen a snippet here or there of Fedor, so I just don't have any good sense of how strong a fighter he is. I do wonder though if given a bit more seasoning Lesnar could give him a good challenge.
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Considering Mir was barely able to survive Lesnar with no octagon experience I'd be hard pressed to be against a guy who has the best power speed fighting raw talent I've seen after he's had more experience.
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Here's a fairly different idea inspired by Joe Sheehan. Build a package less about the prospects and more around taking Alex Rios. Rios is a superior defensive RF to Hart based on a a few years of UZR data. Their bats are producing similarly this year. And Rios has played a fair bit of at least competent CF, which has value in the post Mike Cameron era. If that let's you deal say Hall and Hart + a few non- Escobar/Gamel prospects for Halladay I think it's a reasonable trade-off. It lets you maximize your next two seasons by clumping 4 real difference makers (Gallardo, Halladay, Braun, and Prince) on the field in their primes with a solid group around them. And you don't have to give up too much minor league talent that you are ensured a sharp drop off either.
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Just as importantly for the performance matters argument with yesterday's walk Gamel trails Counsell by only .013 OBP points and .028 SLG points. Those are significant differences over the course of a season, but new batting stance or not Gamel is a much better bet going forward to catch and surpass Craig's numbers than not. With the number of ABs Gamel has had he could catch Counsell with 1 good day at the plate. This isn't even about Gamel's development, as in the bigger picture getting Gamel going gives you the boost of a trade and you let Casey settle in at second since he's hitting really well.