"So while they may have impressive numbers in college, it is in part due to watered down competition (thus perhaps the college level of competition isn't that far superior to the high school level of competition)." Ehh, I think you may want to reconsider that, for although I also have no statistics to back you, me, or anything else up, I am confident that you are wrong. And basically here's my reasoning: how many HS players are there? And how many D1 players are there? Even when you add in the college age HS draftees, there's no way that the ratio is anything but extreme. Most of the best HS players may go pro, but the rest of the best, or the best of the rest, go to college or JC, where they don't stop developing. Think Angel Salome could hit .800 anywhere but HS? Unless you're thinking church softball, or some other nefarious semantic device, he can't. As far as the HS vs. College debate goes, I've come to the conclusion that it should probably be used only as a tie-breaker in the individual analysis of prospects. That is, each prospect should be evaluated individually, as I very much doubt that not going to college makes a man more injury prone, or makes it nigh impossible to become a relief pitcher. There's something in the way they're treated, something in the way they treat themselves that explains it. My guess is that younger kids hide injuries slightly more frequently, but anybody else's guess is just as good.