homer

This thread got me thinking about how to value an elite reliever vs a position player(s). This was an interesting bit from a Fangraphs article about the Chapman trade from 2016 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-relievers-correction-or-bubble/: By our current valuation methods, the game’s elite relievers are worth about +2 WAR in the regular season, but as Sullivan showed, teams with those kinds of elite relief performances generally win about 1.7 games more than we’d expect, so you could argue that perhaps these guys are worth closer to +4 WAR, if the team’s clutch performance was solely due to having a great reliever. Obviously this does not take into account the contract of the reliever or years of control which is a HUGE deal when evaluating a trade. Also positional performance volatility has to be taken into account and relievers tend to be a volatile group. Digging a littler further I found this from a Forbes article https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2019/11/21/the-brewers-should-at-least-entertain-trade-offers-for-josh-hader-this-off-season/#4709ed375bda Hader is under team control for four arbitration seasons, and will earn over $30M over that span if he remains healthy and effective. If he pitches at his 2019 level, he could deliver as much as $80M in value over that span, for a total of $50M excess value. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That’s the potential reward. The risk, however, is immense. One would think that $50M in excess contract value would land Hader on Fangraphs’ annual Top 50 Trade Value list. He only made the Honorable Mentions, however. Reliever performance, as you might surmise, is extremely volatile. Hader ranked 3rd in reliever WAR in both 2018 and 2019. Going back to 2017, he is the only reliever to repeat among the top five. That’s right - there are 14 different relievers among the 15 top relief performances over the last three seasons. I put this all out there not to suggest the Brewers should trade Hader but more to see if we can come to some kind of consensus (good luck) on value.

The Chiefs may have something to say about that. I'm drunk

And that's it, folks. Houston gets a home game. Tennessee looks like NYG back in 2011.

Wow. this is amazing.

Wonder what the biggest dog was to win an NFL playoff game? I'm assuming there's been a few double digit upsets.

TD here would be huge.

I don't expect it to last, but wow! It appears that the Ravens may have been overlooking the Titans a bit. INT and stop on 4th down....nice equalizers.

Holy Titans! This is great.

San Fran looked fine on offense today. They literally passed like 3 times int he 2nd half so hard to gauge. They looked like junk in that last game against Seattle though.

Vikings line is pathetic

It's ok to disagree with each other as long as you keep it civil. Last warning.

It's ok to disagree with each other as long as you keep it civil. Last warning.

That's a nice road win. Penn St was #20.

That's a nice road win. Penn St was #20.

Favre retired, team moved on, then Favre changed his mind. Team should have traded him right there but they hemmed and hawed about what to do and tried to convince the guy not to come back. That was on GB not Favre. I'm not blaming a guy for deciding he still wants to play. What I blame Favre for is finagling his way to an NFC North team just to stick it to Thompson. So both sides were at fault.

Favre retired, team moved on, then Favre changed his mind. Team should have traded him right there but they hemmed and hawed about what to do and tried to convince the guy not to come back. That was on GB not Favre. I'm not blaming a guy for deciding he still wants to play. What I blame Favre for is finagling his way to an NFC North team just to stick it to Thompson. So both sides were at fault.

I will always respect Matt Williams for having Tom Sawyer as his walk up music back in the late 90s.

I will always respect Matt Williams for having Tom Sawyer as his walk up music back in the late 90s.

Greatest rock drummer of all time....and an incredible lyricist too.

Kids crying is one thing. They can't help it. Kids watching movies is another thing.

Please stop bringing up Brett Anderson in multiple threads. Thanks.

I've never tried it either, not one single time. I know others, who like me, have also never tried it. Not that weird to us... Cool. I am happy for you and others like you. The issue was someone saying they didn't like something they had never tried.

Yes and sometimes I try that thing and realize I was wrong. Yep, and sometimes we don't because we know we'll be correct. I have no desire to go swim in the middle of the ocean either and I will never try it. Your question made it seem like you took issue with the fact that I have no desire to even try coffee. Just seemed like a weird thing to question. Well you could die swimming in the middle of the ocean. Taking a few sips of coffee won't kill you (unless you are married to this guy: https://abcnews.go.com/US/michigan-man-poisoned-wifes-coffee-sentenced-60-weekend/story?id=64725401). Not trying it seems weird to me. Different strokes for each of us.

Yes and sometimes I try that thing and realize I was wrong. Oysters for example.

Interesting since the world knows that Gene Simmons is not, and has never been a partier himself. His party has always been women. He doesn't drink or do drugs, and never has. I never mentioned drugs or alcohol. He was referring to women.