homer

It wouldn't take a lot for us to dip down to 73 wins. We won 86 but we're going to be without Nelson for an undetermined amount of time and if he gets back during the season it will probably just be to get some innings, not expecting ace like production. That's probably a 3-4 win drop and we're already down to 82 or 83 wins. If Anderson regresses to say a 1.5 WAR pitcher (last year's 3.3 WAR was more than he accumulated in 400+ innings over his career previously) then we could be in for another 2 win drop and we're down to 80 or 81. Knebel could regress, Santana could regress, Shaw could regress, Braun could get hurt and all of those things happening and they aren't as far fetched as some think, then we're probably in the 72-75 win range. Now obviously we could get breakouts from Arcia, Phillips, Brinson etc to push the win total back up but you had a lot of guys that are older doing things they never came close to doing before, so projections are probably going to have them regressing to somewhere between what they had done prior to last year and what they did last year and weighted closer to the lower end because there's more of a sample size of production or lack thereof. There is no doubt that the Brewers could win 73 games, or less. I just think projecting us there is silly. And meanwhile the Cubs and their(at the time) 3 starting pitchers are going to win 100 games? Anything less than a 78 win projection is a terrible projection in my opinion. We have so many guys that could break out. If even 1 or 2 of our many breakout candidates do indeed break out, the 73 win projection is going to look incredibly terrible. I think what they do is project what each player might do and then cumulatively figure out what that translates to in terms of wins and losses. It'd probably be a better exercise to see the individual player projections and then see where they think the regression comes from.

Yeah, Angels making some moves.

Strongly agree. Load up with a bunch of guys in the farm system that throw 98+. Thornburg alone brought back tremendous value. I don't know this for sure but it seems like you can still get unproven, high ceiling bullpen arms without giving up too much. It's like their value increases exponentially compared to starters and position players.

I wonder if AAA bullpen guys that have yet to break into the bigs is the market inefficiency. Get them cheap, flip them after a few years for a ton of value.

DBacks are trying to get a new stadium...to replace the one that opened less than 20 years ago.

Brad Davison is a heady basketball player

TJ Rubley!

Huh? I didn't realize winter meetings were the only place to make a deal. Where did I say that it was? Nothing I said was at all permanent. You called it a dud which means failure or unsatisfactory. Groundwork is oftentimes laid at these meetings and the trade comes later. Just because there isn't a headline now does not in any way mean nothing is getting done.

Huh? I didn't realize winter meetings were the only place to make a deal.

I feel like Stearns is going to avoid paying a ton for relievers. My guess is that he'd be more inclined to trade for one at the deadline than shell out a bunch of money to a guy.

Rodgers is back.

Reddit thread on bitcoin. The first commenter was so savage in his response that the original poster removed his post.

Let's try and keep this discussion about the Fangraphs article. Thanks.

This is funny for several reasons.

King is out for the year. I think he can apply for a medical red-shirt.

Yet they've had Rodgers starting for 10 years now and have one super bowl trip to show for it.... And that year they had a top ten defense. I'm not against firing Capers but a wholesale rebuild is not in the cards as long as ARodg is back there. Also, I think a lot of the issue is on Thompson. Looks like they finally hit on a few defensive picks the last couple of years but they need some pass rushers desperately.

Nope, nothing else plugged in. This was literally right after she turned it on and went through the setup. Next thing was open IE. Given that we just don't trust this computer we are probably going to just see if they'll ship a new one since she doesn't need it right away. Thanks for the suggestions guys.

Packers don't need to tear anything down. Literally just need an average defense and with Rodgers they can compete for the SB every year.

Tie game!

Which kind of stinks since it takes them out of the Harper sweepstakes (presumably). One less team to bid against the Cubs.

lol yeah I'm to go with the guy that works with him daily *knowing* exactly what he throws It's very possible he works in the 89 - 92 range and touches mid 90's occasionally. Also possible his velo was down a tick when that guy from BP scouted him.

Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez hit more homers than the San Francisco Giants did last year.

Jeter with the inside job!

Also this re: Peralta's fastball: http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/freddy-peralta-and-quality-depth/ “Peralta does not have any pitch that will wow anyone, but the whole package is quite intriguing. He is adept at changing both speeds and looks on his 88-92 fastball." https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-prospect-freddy-peralta-named-all-star/c-236881060 According to Chavarria, Peralta's fastball sits in the 91-95 mph range and is his most dangerous tool. So he throws from 88 - 95

Just noticed this: Matt Eddy’s research at Baseball America reveals that the Mudcats’ home park features the least-favorable run-scoring environment in the Carolina League, a factor that probably had some impact on player performance. It’s likely that several (if not all) of those guys bounce back.