obobo55

I am not assuming anything. I just tried to point out that the Cubs dominance at home isn't all that special as the Brewers did fairly well against those same teams. If the Brewers sweep the Padres and Pirates in their next trips, the Cubs will have outpaced the Brewers 30-8 to 28-10. Will that happen? I don't expect it will, but it is not an incredible leap to think it might as we have handled the Pirates handily thus far and the Padres don't visit until after Sept 1st when they will be looking at their youngsters. How will the Cubs fare when they face the Marlins, Philly and St Louis? The Crew went 6-4 against those teams at home. The Cubs face them for 14 of their remaining 32 home games in the 2nd half. None of those challenges remain for the Brewers home slate.

Lets take a look at that 37-12 record: 2-4 against the Brewers (Brewers haven't played the Cubs at home) 2-1 against Houston (Brewers went 3-0) 4-2 against Cincy (Brewers went 2-4) 5-1 against Pitt (Brewers went 3-0) 2-0 against NYM 3-0 against Arizona (Brewers went 3-0) 3-1 against SDP 4-0 against COL (Brewers went 2-2) 3-0 against LAD (Brewers went 1-2) 3-0 against ATL (Brewers went 2-1) 3-0 against CWS 1-2 against Baltimore (Brewers went 2-1) 2-1 against SFG (Brewers went 3-0) So in comparable games (take out a 2-1 Pitt series to make it even): MIL 21-10 CHC 25-6 A 4-game lead, 2 of which we made up head-to-head already at Wrigley. We still have those 7 games against the Pirates and Padres to make up further ground, not to mention the 7 Miller Park home games with the Scrubs.

-3, -5 -2, -3 -1, -1 0, 1 1, 3 -4, -5 -3, -3 -2, -1 -1, 1 0, 3 -5, -5 -4, -3 -3, -1 -2, 1 -1, 3 -6, -5 -5, -3 -4, -1 -3, 1 -2, 3 -7, -5 -6, -3 -5, -1 -4, 1 -3, 3 That is how I look at it. We are currently a cumulative -4 in the standings. Playing 4 games on the road, even if we drop an extra game back (in some combination) it is not bad (orange). All of the blues and greens bring us closer, while the reds take us further away. The purples would all be fairly disastrous.

What's interesting (to me at least), is that out of the 25 outcomes: 11 would make us decidedly worse off 5 have us still 3 games back of somebody (but maybe in 2nd place) 9 are awesome improvements I assume the 9 awesome improvements are combinations which require 4 wins (5 possibilities) or 3-1 in favor of the crew (5 more). Wouldn't a 2-2 split, with the Cubs getting swept be an awesome improvement as well? Only 1 combination with the Brewers winning just 1 game would be even slightly helpful...Cubs getting swept, so the 11 poor outcomes is not surprising. A split works for me. Even if the Cubs somehow swept the D-backs, we remain very close to the Cards while eating into their dwindling home games. A 3-1 result in our favor would be phenomenal regardless of what the Cubs do too. So I see 12 great outcomes: any 4-0, any 3-1, and 2-2 splits with the Cubs taking 1 or 0 in Arizona. 1 outcome that is neutral but fairly positive: 2-2 split with a 2-2 split in the desert. 2 fairly neutral: 2-2 split, Cubs win 3-1 or 1-3 with Cubs getting swept. 10 that are very poor: any 0-4, 1-3 w/o Cubs getting swept, 2-2 while Cubs sweep. If we assume that the sweeps are very unlikely we end up with 5 good outcomes, one neutral, and three poor.

Yeah, the schedule differences for the teams are pretty stark. Both the Cubs and Cards have not played a game against the Marlins yet too. We managed just a 1-5 mark against the fish, but we are done with them. The games against the Padres, Nats, and Pirates (we play them 9 times, Cubs 6, Cards 5) are really what is in our favor, but we need to take advantage of those. 14 home games and 6 on the road against the teams at the bottom of each division. Wow, that is nearly a third of our remaining schedule (20 of 64). OK, lets delve a little deeper. There are 5 teams in the NL that are 10 games under .500 or worse. The Cubs, Brewers, and Cards have completed their series against SF and COL. Cards and Cubs have finished their series against SD, while the Brewers haven't started. Cards are done with WAS, while the Cubs have 3 home games and the Crew gets 4 at home. Then you have the Pittsburgh discrepancy noted above. So assuming these teams are in fact the worst teams in the NL, the Crew plays them 20 times (14 at home), the Cubs 9 (6H), and the Cards 5 (2H). Rluzinski should do a projection on our record for just those 20 games for us and see how many games we pick up in the standings... I don't think 15-5 would be too far from the realm of possibility.

Mon, Jul 21 4@ St. Louis Fri, Aug 1 3@ Atlanta Mon, Aug 4 3@ Cincinnati Tue, Aug 12 3@ San Diego Fri, Aug 15 3@ LA Dodgers Tue, Aug 26 2@ St. Louis Fri, Aug 29 3@ Pittsburgh Thu, Sep 11 4@ Philadelphia Tue, Sep 16 3@ Cubs Fri, Sep 19 3@ Cincinnati I like the Brewers to win 2 of the 4 against St Louis this week. 2 of 3 against Atlanta since we should be pitching Suppan, CC, and Sheets. 1of 3 against Cincy. 2 of 3 in SD though I hope for a sweep. Then we get swept against the Dodgers as neither Benny or Sabathia would pitch. Hope for 1 in St Louis, followed by 2 of 3 in the Steel city. That puts us at 10-11 heading into the final trip of the year. Unfortunately, I really don't like this trip. Anything better than 3-7 would be fantastic IMO. If they went 4-6 they would finish the year at 38-43 on the road. If you forced me to pick though, I would say 1 win in each city. Anyone see us doing any better than that?

I won't say what it is, but this will be the fifth time we have attempted it this year, each time we have failed. I know Lincecum will be tough, but I think we can do it tomorrow. Manny should be well rested and SF is not a great offensive team. Can't wait for the game tomorrow...

-------------------------------------- Moved to 7/20/08 in-game thread, reply #1. --1992 --------------------------------------

My only concern is that Bush loses his ability to go 7-8 strong when he is going well. I would have preferred to have him pitch as the #5 altogether, but I can understand the reasons for the experiment. As long as he can still go deep into games when pitching well, I say go for it for a few weeks and see what happens. Most likely someone gets hurt anyways and it all shakes out.

All I have to say is that we should remember Wes Obermueller. By his ERA, he was a horrible pitcher. However, he would often throw a gem for 5 innings--and I am sure our opponent's fans were tearing their hair out--then he (or our bullpen) would allow the game to blow open in the 6th inning. That is what bad pitchers generally are. They often can not extricate themselves from the bad innings. If Ben Sheets gives up a leadoff double, he does not walk two guys being too careful and give up a bloop double that scores 3. He will bear down and go after each hitter as if that guy on second isn't there. That run may score but he will usually limit the damage to that. It really does come down to trusting your stuff. When a mediocre pitcher gets rattled, he starts to nibble. That results in a couple of things, more balls lead to batter-friendly counts and it gets the pitch count up. So even if the "poor" pitcher gets out of it limiting the damage by nibbling and not giving up the nail-driver he probably threw extra pitches which cause him to come out of the game early. This is then reflected in his ERA. Suppan is an almost perfect example of this in a bunch of games I have went to. He ends up giving up only 2 or 3 runs (and we end up winning) but he can only go 5 or 6 innings because he throws so many pitches to get his outs.

My whole point in starting the discussion was simply this: 1--Nelson is putting up decent numbers at AAA after pretty much falling completely off the radar. 2--Being 25, the Brewers really need to decide what they are doing with him. 3--Since he is still our property, I would like to get some sort of value out of him if possible. My argument wasn't that he would be great, or even that we should consider having him up next year, but I would like to do one or the other (trade). Seems silly to lose a guy who still may have value for nothing. Obviously Al and Joe believe he is worth nothing at this point. They may be correct and I do like hearing their opinions on the matter. I do believe they may be discounting the effect of the injury, but I really don't know anything about it other than reading that it really saps power. That is why I was asking for the P50 guys opinions, as I expect they have a better grasp on it than most. I have always thought that spending large amounts of $$$ on 1B is something a small-market team can ill afford to do. I like Prince a lot, but he is going to be real expensive very soon. If we could flip him for young pitching talent, it makes all the sense in the world to me. Then you backfill at first with a cheap body that can put up average numbers. Whether that is Nelson or not really doesn't matter but he is ours, so I asked what people thought. (Of course if I am a MLB GM, I wouldn't trade my pitching talent anyways. Nut I can dream right?)

I really wasn't pushing for him to replace Prince. Just asking what kind of a loss would we have with him in that spot if we are overwhelmed with an offer. I agree that he probably does no better than average production if we are pressed into that choice, but would that be too much of a loss? If he gives us 2-3 years of average production at 1B, isn't that worth something? I guess it really depends on what Prince would fetch us in return. If you greatly improve your rotation, a small decrease in production at 1B should not hurt much.

This is mostly aimed at the P50 editors, but chime in if you want. Could he play 1B as a regular next year if we trade Prince? What numbers would you expect from him in that role? Do we trade him at the deadline? In the offseason? .409 OBP .492 SLG 12 stolen bases just 3 errors Just my opinion, but he appears to finally have recovered from the hamate injury and would be terrible to let go for nothing in return. If Prince is still here, could he still play in the OF? Just want to hear others opinion on how good he really is...

I think the trading pieces are there to replace Sheets/CC in the offseason, but that will require trading Prince/some of our top prospects. As such, locking up Hardy/Hart have to be a huge priority, maybe as early as the AS Break as their replacements will be 4-5 years away should we trade the Gillespe and Escobars of the world for a Greinke/Lincecum/Cain type. With two solid seasons in a row for both Hart/Hardy, i think they've proven they are worth making a commitment to. Interesting you say this, as i was looking at it in the completely opposite way... I love JJ and Corey, and think Prince is a fine option to have at 1B for the next three years. BUT all three of them look to be replaceable as early as next year. I was talking to my Dad today and speculated about how fans would react if the Crew won the World Series and proceeded to lose Sheets & Sabathia, then deal away Prince, Hardy, and Hart for pitching help and other pieces. I an sure most would scream bloody murder and curse management for having a "fire-sale", but I don't necessarily think it would hurt that badly and may turn out to be better in the long run. What would a .850 OPS SS--still in arby--bring on the market? What about an all-star OF who may be able to play CF that puts up .850+ numbers and terrorizes the basepaths--also still in arby? Then throw in perhaps the biggest slugger in the game? I know aces aren't cheap but I have to think that we could reload the staff using those chips. I'm not saying that this is something the Brewers should do. I want Corey and JJ to be here long-term if it is at all possible. But if their demands are too high, I could see this happening and as long as Melvin made good deals I don't believe it would hurt the team all that much. Nelson is IMO ready to play 1B at the major league level and could provide near what Fielder has given us this year. Escobar from all I have heard is an upgrade defensively at SS, we would likely suffer some growing pains with his bat though. Gamel might be an upgrade over Corey offensively, not sure how he would play in the OF at this point but I would appreciate his LH stick in the lineup. The way I build a team is to pay premium dollar for my pitching staff and for good hitters at tough defensive positions. If the Brewers determine that Corey can play CF and Hardy can shift to 2B, they are both very good candidates for long extensions. I just don't want to pay premium dollars at 1B, RF, or left as you can generally find a stick there fairly cheap. Again, I am all in favor of signing Hart and Hardy to deals, but the prospects we have knocking on the door make them tradeable if their demands are too high. It will be a very interesting offseason to be sure.

2007 Milwaukee 52 40 .565 - 33-14 19-26 446 405 +41 Chicago Cubs 48 43 .527 3.5 24-21 24-22 421 379 +42 2008 Chicago Cubs 55 37 .598 - 35-11 20-26 494 389 +105 Milwaukee 51 41 .554 4 30-15 21-26 430 411 +19 1 game overall difference. Over 92 games we had scored 16 more runs and given up 6 less. A bit better last year at home, but a bit worse on the road. The real difference is the Cubs have put up 73 more runs and are 6 1/2 games better than they were last year. With the addition of CC, Parra, and hopefully a healthy Sheets--not to mention an extra year of experience for our young team--one would think we will hold up better down the stretch.

Just an observation. I am going to be in Colorado in August and was hoping to take in a game at Coors. I looked at their prices and was shocked. Almost any seat there outside of the "rockpile" was over $20 and the vast majority were over $35. I have a hard time justifying paying anything over 20 for a Brewer game and take advantage of all the cheap options available (5-county, Spring madness, BP cards, etc). I truly hope that the Brewers are not forced to price their tickets like the Rockies do as it is tough enough for me to justify paying for the gas to fuel my trip from Madison.

Well, not bad. After the 5-5 trip, they are 5-2 thus far at home, could they pull off a sweep of the Reds (Parra, McClung, CC) to make my most optimistic hopes of 54-41 come true? Probably doubtful as they face Volquez on Saturday, but one can always hope. He has given up 13 runs in his last 15.2 innings...

Just read that the Reds plan to pitch Homer Bailey against us on Sunday rather than Harang. He had a rough go of it in three starts in June, can anyone find his latest game logs since going back down?. added "Homer" to title, since I didn't know who Bailey was on the Brewers until I read the thread--pitchleague

I understand you want Sheets and Sabathia to go as often as possible, but wouldn't it be better to split them up to help the bullpen? If Sabathia goes game 1 & Sheets goes in game 4 out of the break they both pitch in the Cubs and Cards series. We have 20 straight out of the break so each of the 5 starters will go 4 times in that stretch either way. Putting Ben and CC back-to-back would seem to put undue stress on the pen to shore up the backend of games for 3 days in a row. SF: Sabathia SF: Buish SF: Parra STL: Sheets STL: Suppan (this is the first day he is eligible to come off the DL) STL: Sabathia STL: Bush HOU: Parra HOU: Sheets HOU: Suppan/McClung CHC: Sabathia CHC: Bush CHC: Parra CHC: Sheets

Uecker still is OK. I do think he may just be hanging on hoping for that magical season though. Anyone think he would retire if they won it all this year? I have always thought the sausage race was pretty silly, but I am one who just wants to watch baseball and could do without all of the distractions. At times I wonder about the people that attend the games. When people are trying to start the wave during a rally, I just do not understand why they come. I will always miss County Stadium. I like Miller Park, but there just isn't the same atmosphere that you had back then. The bleachers were a blast just because it was completely separate from the rest of the park. I understand the revenue that they bring in, but I could do without all the extra kitsch vendor stands as well. Give me my beer and ballpark fare and I am happy. OK, how can any fan leave a game early? I have never understood this in all my years. I get it in football, there are some scores that get too far out of hand where the clock makes a comeback impossible, but baseball has no clock. Any game is still in play. What are you really saving in time? 10-15 minutes? For the cost of a game today, I just don't get how one could throw away the enjoyment for an extra few minutes. Besides the ninth-inning rally is the best there is in sports IMO. What if there is extra innings? You don't mind missing all that extra action? In over 30 years going as a fan, I have never left a game early. I have had friends that have tried to get me to leave, but I have simply refused and let them know that they could go and I would take a bus home.

With Sheets and CC as free agents, that would be optimum correct? Top 15 give up their 1st rounder while bottom 15 give up a second round pick? Currently the Mets sit at #15. Dodgers are 1 game back at #18. Yankees are #11. What other teams do we need to worry about? Houston (#22)? Atlanta (#20)? If #15 & #16 finish tied, how do they determine the cutoff? How are the compensation picks awarded? If Sheets and Sabathia are the highest-ranked FA targets do we get #31 and #32? What other FA targets are out there this offseason? Sorry for all the questions, but 5 of top 35 has me excited already for 2009.

Well, whomever starts the first two games out of the break (Fri 18th & Sat 19th) would also both pitch in the series against the Cards (23rd & 24th) and Cubs (28th & 29th). They would also be up for two of our road games in ATL (Aug 2-3) as we don't get an off-day until Aug 7. That has to be a combination of CC and Sheets, I would expect CC to go in the first game since Sheets has to go in the AS game. Mon-McClungTues-CC Wed-Parra Thurs-Sheets, sets him up for 4 days rest till all star appearance Fri-Bush Sat-Suppan Sun-CC So by Thursday, McClung is available for bullpen duty...ready to take over for Bush or Suppan if either struggle and Parra could probably be used in the pen next weekend as well if needed. Coming out of the break: @SF--CC.......................CC @SF--Sheets..................Suppan @SF--Suppan................Parra @Stl--Parra....................Sheets @Stl--Bush/McClung......Bush/McClung @Stl--CC.......................CC @Stl--Sheets...................Suppan HOU--Suppan.................Parra HOU--Parra....................Sheets HOU--Bush/McClung......Bush/McClung CHC--CC........................CC CHC--Sheets...................Suppan CHC--Suppan.................Parra CHC--Parra....................Sheets @Atl--Bush/McClung.....Bush/McClung @Atl--CC......................CC @Atl--Sheets..................Suppan Though for bullpen usage, it might be better to separate Benny and Sabathia, I have posted an alternative above. This would allow for our demoted starter (Bush or McClung) to be available to pitch in either Suppan's or Manny's games each week, depending on which starter lasted longer. Sort of a piggybacking type of situation, best case scenario Suppan pitches well enough so our 6th starter can come in for Parra in the 6th each time to reduce Manny's workload for a month or so. (pared back long quote --1992)

I would guess that is where the difference of opinion comes in Russ. Many here are penciling in CC as an 7-8 inning guy at 2.15 ERA they have seen the last two months. While I agree with you that he is more likely to stat out at your rates, it is possible that he posts those other numbers too (he is in a contract drive after all). What would your numbers say if he puts up a 3 ERA over 7 in comparison to Bush?

Why is that the case? It is very difficult to find LH hitters at ant other spot on the infield as it forces them to make real awkward throws from 2nd, 3rd, or SS. Unless you don't mind throwing out a lineup with 1 lefty you have to put 2 in the OF. I know there are some (Gamel, Branyan) and there are some middle IF that bat one way and throw the other, but it really does limit your options.

I know we have struggled at times in our history filling 1B, but I just don't see the loss of LaPorta as that big a loss. I don't really want to have a RH hitter in that spot as it almost requires you to fill your OF with 2 LH hitters. With Braun filling one spot, that would force Hart out of the picture. Since 1B is the easiest position on defense, I just don't think it would be too difficult to find someone to plug in there w/o a big dropoff in production. Worst case scenario I can see that you stick with Prince for 09-10 and you find someone in that time, but for those of you wanting to trade Fielder for pitching I still think we could get by next year without either one.