obobo55

It really does get interesting in the month of September with as many off-days as the team has. I went through the schedule and was trying not to have too much juggling and not any real long stretches of non-use and I ended up with 12 "extra day of rest" starts for our top 4 and only 4 starts for Narv/Estrada. I don't know how an extra day or 2 extra days affects a starter. I will be very interested to see how they wind up the last week though in trying to set up the playoff rotation if they have it sewn up at that point.

I would like the team to make a play for Washburn but I know little of what he would command in the FA market. Would his nice year this season make a type A guy? I wouldn't want to sign him for more than 2 years, but if he could be had he could be a solid addition to bridge us until we get some pitching from the minors (has to happen eventually right?). Yo Washburn Parra Bush Suppan/Looper/other

Thus far the Crew has been great on the road, putting up a 14-11 record through 25 games. They have just 17 road games left before the break: 4 @Florida (21-25) 3 @Atlanta (23-21) 3 @Cleveland (17-28) 3 @Detroit (25-18) 4 @Cubs (21-21) Florida and Atlanta also have losing records at home thus far. I am hoping the team can pull off a 9-8 mark over these games (3 over FLA, 1 vs ATL, 2 vs CLE, 1 vs DET, & 2 vs sCrUBS). I would like to think they could pull off a sweep over the tribe, but to predict such would probably be foolish. After the break, most of our remaining trips come within the division as we play just 16 of the remaining 39 outside of the division: 3 @San Diego 3 @Dodgers 4 @Washington 3 @Arizona 3 @Colorado 4 @Cincinnati 6 @Pittsburgh 3 @Houston 4 @Chicago 6 @St Louis We have already played the Mets, Phillies, & Giants trips...3 of the tougher ones in the NL this year. Thought it was interesting we play just 6 road games all year against the Reds. Should be very interesting to watch the hot Padres. We play them for all 6 of our games in a 2 week period starting 7/31 (trade deadline day). Do they continue their hot play and keep Peavy and others or do we get lucky and face them after the fire sale?

Parra pitches Wed the 6th. His next start falls on an off-day. Do they skip him in the rotation this one time? Tue, May 5 @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM Suppan (1-2) Snell (1-3) Tickets Wed, May 6 @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM Parra (0-4) Arroyo (4-1) Tickets Thu, May 7 @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM Looper (2-1) Owings (1-3) Tickets Fri, May 8 Cubs 8:05 PM Bush (1-0) Wells Tickets Sat, May 9 Cubs 7:05 PM Gallardo (3-1) Dempster (2-1) Tickets Sun, May 10 Cubs 2:05 PM Suppan (1-2) Marshall (0-1) Tickets Tue, May 12 Florida 8:05 PM Tickets Wed, May 13 Florida 8:05 PM Tickets Thu, May 14 Florida 1:05 PM Tickets Fri, May 15 @ St. Louis 8:15 PM Tickets Sat, May 16 @ St. Louis 1:10 PM Tickets Sun, May 17 @ St. Louis 2:15 PM Tickets That would give us Looper, Bush, and Yo against the Fish. Suppan, Manny, and Looper against the Cards. Not really weighing in one way or the other on this as I think Manny will be fine. I do have tickets to the game on the 12th though so I am interested to know who will be pitching that night.

This is exactly the point I was going to make. At the time of the trade, Sheets was phenomenal and the offense was dominating (prior to Hart's dropoff). When they made the deal, I was of the opinion that they had just made themselves THE team to beat. Now we know how the season ended and some may argue that they expected a Sheets injury, but in the moment it was a no-brainer IMO. As it turned out, I would tend to agree that perhaps we gave up too much for a single playoff appearance, but again I agree that there was not a position for LaPorta to play. Perhaps he should have been dealt for a longer-term solution in retrospect, but that is some real Monday-morning GM work if you ask me. Given that we still have some top prospects and we will still receive the draft picks I don't get how anyone can really argue with the deal.

Who cares where guys were drafted? Ever heard of Chad Green, David Krynzel, Nick Neugenbauer, JM Gold, Mike Jones, Antoine Williamson, Kenny Felder, Kenny Henderson, Tyrone Hill, Kyle Peterson along with countless second and third rounders that did nothing in baseball? Who cares where a guy is drafted. Your argument falls week because some of those players were drafted as HS kids. Did you know the Brewers drafted Nomar out of HS for example late? Manny Parra I believe was a 29th round pick. Does that mean that nearly 600 kids that are drafted before him should be better right now? Again, this is not football where there is clear talent. The competition and number of kids are far different in these two sports. Rant over.... Again, I understand what you are saying. Brantley, Cain, Green, Lucroy, and Gillespie are somewhat proven commodities while a draft pick could end up as a total flop. That is true whether the pick comes in the 1st round or supplemental. At the same time though, none of these guys is such a sure thing that it makes giving them up a completely idiotic move. LaPorta, Gamel, Escobar, are on that level and if the Brewers had given up two of those I would have been more upset. There are questions about each of the guys we are speculating about. Given 2 high round picks, it is my opinion that JZ will find one that ends up being as good or better than the guy Cleveland takes. I am guessing, but I think it will end up being Green. He may turn out to be a great 2B or 3B with lefty power. I would greatly miss that type of guy. It is also possible that he ends up playing the OF. Then I am not so concerned. What if we find another Yo with one of the picks? Would you still be upset if we traded a good/great OF for a dominant SP? I think too many people are looking at the greatest upside for the guy we lose as the PTBNL, while writing off any possibility of the pick doing anything.

And Brent Brewers was a 2nd round pick. Mark Rogers was a 1st round pick. Tony Gwynn Jr. was a 2nd round pick. Josh Murray was a 2nd round pick. Mike Jones was a 1st round pick. 2nd round picks come after the supplemental round. So I'll give you Rogers and Jones, but the others were all picked lower than the two we will receive this year for CC. Again, I understand that these guys have proven something beyond what any pick we make will have done. But most of them still haven't shown they can handle even AA yet. While they may be less risky than a draft choice, there is nothing to say they may not make a dent in the Majors either. I hope Cleveland takes one of the OFs too and even losing them will hurt a bit, but getting CC is worth it and if we hit on one of the 2 picks we could easily end up with a better player than what we lost. If Jack lucks out, we could have 2. Crew07, I hear your point as well, and I would love to get a young pitcher we could control as well. I think you undervalue what teams think about these players however. You can probably swing a deal for a thrower in A-ball, but once they show ability that translates to the MLB, teams know they can hold out for the world in trade if they choose to deal him. Most clubs will instead deal off a more expensive pitcher from their staff and keep the savings for themselves. I am very wary of any young pitcher that gets dealt for exactly this reason. If he is getting dealt he probably has some major flaws or has a goofy delivery that may blow out his arm.

OK, so today was poor. At the same time however, our lead in the wild card stayed at 3. If you told me coming out of the break we would go 8-2, I would have been real happy and losing 2 games to Houston is better than losing 2 to the Cards. We have CC pitching tomorrow... Thats about all I got.

Well he got a hit, but why burn Branyan in that spot? No one on, why not hit Durham there and save the Muscle for a chance to tie later in the game? WTG JJ! C'mon Braun...

These three teams are in the big picture all about the same. Dodgers are 1 game under .500, the Reds and Braves are both 5 under. How different their worlds are however, based on the divisions they play in. The Dodgers look at this as an opportunity to make noise. Most of their remaining games are against their own division and they feel they can make hay. Being just 1 game back of the D-backs allows them to think that just one piece may put them into the postseason. The Braves have a slightly clouded picture. They have a bunch of games remaining in their division as well, which could allow them to make up ground quick. 6 1/2 back in the division with 3 opponents to jump makes it tough to make bold moves, but close enough to discount being a seller. The Reds have almost no shot at 10 1/2 back and trailing the wildcard by the same number. Just found it interesting how three teams right around the same level could have completely different thoughts when considering what to do.

I just don't get this mentality. I know these guys have advanced to a level where they have proven themselves to some extent, but we will be receiving two HIGH draft picks when CC leaves in FA next year. Those picks are both going to be higher than where the prospects we are talking about were drafted. Brantley was a 7th rounder, Cain 17th, Green 25th, Lucroy 3rd. I like each of these guys and I don't want to part with any of them either, but the picks we get for CC's departure will likely be of higher talent level. They still need to move up the ladder but I would expect at least one of the two to match whichever player Cleveland picks. The way I look at it, we gave up LaPorta for CC. Trading away a very likely star player is costly, but what Sabathia is doing for us already is probably worth it. LaPorta is probably a 1B and hits righthanded. We need our 1B to be a LH guy to balance out our lineup as Braun, Hart, Hardy, and Weeks all hit from the right side. Since you are unlikely to get power from CF or C, either your 3B or !B needs to be a power lefty stick which LaPorta cannot provide. He may be great, but I am willing to let him go since he really didn't fit on our team. 4 straight wins, the effect he has had on lowering stress on our 'pen, and the potential to dominate in postseason makes that gamble a worthy one. The picks we will get ought to be able to replace Bryson and whichever PTBNL they choose. If Zach ever turns out to be a competent ML starter, it may have been a poor trade, but I don't hear anyone claiming that as a reason. If Brantley goes to Cleveland and becomes a HOFer and both of our picks never pan out sure it would suck, but given Jack Z's track record, I would bet against that happening.

One thing to remember is that with Yo coming back, we may have a rotation next year that's only a little worse than before the CC trade (Yo may only be a small step down from Sheets), and that's still solid. I agree to a point. Yo, Manny, Bush, Soup, McClung/Villy/acqusition could be a decent staff that keeps you in contention. In '82, we had Vuke, Caldwell, Moose Haas, McClure and eventually Sutton. In '92, it was Wegman, Bosio, Navarro, Bones, and eventually Eldred. I think it is possible the staff above could approach that level of ability. The biggest issue I see if we went with that staff is we would need a stellar bullpen that can log a bunch of innings as I don't see a whole lot of complete games. Not sure if that type of rotation is enough to win in the postseason though. That is where an ace really puts you over the top. Could Parra or Yo be that guy for us next year? Possible I suppose, but it is a bit of a stretch to think they will.

That is right, the Cubs are done with the weak NL West for the season. They did very well for themselves, gaining 13 games over .500 (they are +16 overall, 37-34 against all other teams). The Crew is currently 15-8 with 10 games remaining, meaning to match their record they would need to go 8-2 over the final 10. 4 home games against the Padres and one 6 game trip through SD and LA. Probably would require a home sweep and a 4-2 trip to do it. I would be very happy with 7-3.

Well now... The Cards are just 3 back in the wild card and those pesky Marlins and Phillies are just 5 back! I would be getting real nervous right now considering that most had written them into the playoffs back in May. Could be in real trouble if they lose again tomorrow (Marquis) and the crew beats them up here in Milwaukee. Coming out 3-6 out of the break (scoring just 8 runs in those 6 losses) can't inspire too much confidence down there.

I know this is possible, but I can't figure it out. Anyone help me out here?

I posted this in the Cubs fans worry thread, but these are the recent stats for our pitchers: Last 6 starts CC 1.91 ERA (2.19 over last 9) Ben 3.29 (2.85 over last 9) Parra 2.08 (2.51 over last 9) Bush 1.64 in last 6 home starts (2.70 over last 9, including 3 road games) When Benny is your worst starter for the series, I have to like our chances.

I am certainly rooting for Florida. They take on the Cubs next, and I like them coming in hot while the Cubs are stumbling.

Well, -2,-3 would be us losing the last 3 while the Cubs also lost 3. I agree at this point dropping the final 3 would be bad, but the chart was started before the series began. We were a cumulative -4 (3 behind Cubs, 1 behind Cards), playing four games on the road I figured dropping 1 game combined would be a decent result. Plus that would have the Cubs going 1-6 out of the break. In the big picture, that wouldn't seem so bad. -3, 1 would have us winning 2 of 3, while the Cubs won 3. Again, looking at the result from the beginning of the series that is a good result as we vault the Cards by taking 3 of 4 and keep pace with the Cubs while they go 3-1. While I agree with you that yesterday's win (and Cubs loss) changes the outlook, I think you need to keep your hopes constant. If things end up anywhere in the blue or green areas, it would be a great 4 day stretch.

I know I am probably just being whitewashed by the latest Brewer's success and some small samples, but I'm not sure they need to make any big moves this offseason. They will need to shore up their bullpen again with some arms being replaced, but even if both CC and Sheets leave, I like what we have here: Gallardo Parra Suppan Bush McClung While not overwhelming, that numbers Bush and Seth have put up since May are very good for their costs. You know what you are getting with Suppan and I don't see anyone banging down the door to take that contract, so you might as well keep him and hope he stays relatively effective. As far as the lineup, I am still hoping that Hall and Weeks can be the players I think they both can be. If they do that, our offense is just loaded. I suppose we could use a better stick in CF, but I would take Cameron back for his D alone. C has to be Kendall, though I wouldn't mind finding someone to ease his load a bit. My dream would be for all of our defensive problems areas to magically disappear. I also wouldn't necessarily be opposed to trading Prince, but I doubt we could get what I would want for him--21 or 22 yr-old ace or a 22 yr-old stud C--so I figure we hold on to him until he forces his way out.

OK, here is one more thought. Seth McClung has put up 9 starts now since his May 29th truly poor start against ATL (just his 2nd start for us), some stats: 50.2 IP (about 5 1/2 on average) 3.73 ERA 44 hits 19 BBs 44 Ks 6 HRs Just 2 starts where he went less than 5 (both 4 2/3) and just two where he gave up more than 2 runs. I'm not sure we would consider doing this, but could this be a case where Melvin wanted to showcase Seth for a possible deadline deal? Get one more start for a guy that is cheap and relatively effective and see what teams would offer? It would severely crimp our depth in case of injury, but you don't need a 5th starter once you get to the playoffs, and I could see a team parting with a valuable chip if they think he has turned the corner. Over those 9 starts he has only averaged 89 pitches, so one would think he could be stretched to go longer in games. One would think that a 27-year old starter that is likely cheaply signable would be pretty valuable, no? So, anyone think this is a possible hidden reason for this move or am I completely off my rocker?

Just one more thing to add supporting Bush. We are 3-1 in his no-decision starts this year, only losing that brutal game in Boston where we had 4 errors leading to 3 unearned runs including the final 2 in the seventh of Torres. So overall, we are 8-9 in Bush's starts, not bad for a fifth starter. In his 8 losses, our offense has provided him with 21 runs (2.63/game). Even with Sabathia pitching, how many of those would we have won? Maybe 2?

Well we made it through game 1 of the experiment and the point is now probably moot as Bush will now make the next 2 starts in that spot of the rotation. McClung goes to the bullpen and should be available as early as Thursday (hopefully, with Benny pitching, he won't be needed). He would not appear in the rotation again until the 5th of August in Cincinnati. By then, I figure either Suppan pitches his way out via poor performance or injury or they decide to skip Parra in the rotation to limit innings. Who knows what could happen in 15 days? Seems kind of silly to have spent this much time debating what probably turns out to be a 1-start deal. The way Yost framed it, no one was being demoted but both were fighting for their spot. I'm sure he expects to see it play out somehow and he won't have to deal with it until later. When it was proposed, I have to say that I thought it was a novel idea and given the track record of Bush on the road, figured it was worth a try. I hadn't looked too closely at Bush's numbers until tonight, but I think we may be missing something larger in looking at his season and career numbers. 1st 9 starts-4 home, 5 away 53.2 innings 55 hits 19 BBs 26 Ks 12 HRs 36 ERs last 8 starts-5 home, 3 away 53 innings 41 hits 7 BBs 39 Ks 3 HRs (2 at Coors) 16 ERs This just looks to me like Bush has found out how to keep the ball in the park and locate his pitches much better. 7 BBs in 53 innings is very good and probably points to him having better pitcher-friendly counts in other at-bats--leading to the lower batting average and lower HR rate. After seeing these stats, I would have opposed the move simply because I wouldn't want to upset Bush's rhythm. He hasn't pitched since July 10th, so I am a bit concerned that by Saturday (15 days off) he may be rusty. Some of that may have happened anyways due to the AS break though, so not a whole lot you could do about that.

Hmmm, anyone want to post the stats for those 4 over their last 5 starts (use Bush's home-only starts)? Cubs should be throwing Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and Harden so it should be a real close series. OK, I did the work...here are stats for their last 6 starts (Bush home-only): CC 1.91 ERA (2.19 over last 9) Ben 3.29 (2.85 over last 9) Parra 2.08 (2.51 over last 9) Bush 1.64 (2.70 over last 9, including 3 road games) Wow, of those four starters, Ben is the worst? Small wonder the team has been doing well...

-2, -3 -1, -1 0, 1 1, 3 -3, -3 -2, -1 -1, 1 0, 3 -4, -3 -3, -1 -2, 1 -1, 3 -5, -3 -4, -1 -3, 1 -2, 3 Pulling this over from yesterday's IGT. These are the 16 possible outcomes over the next 3 days (Brewer wins from left to right 0-1-2-3/Cubs wins from top to bottom). Coming in, there were 10 bad outcomes out of 25. Now there are just 3 "bad" outcomes out of 16. Not bad for 1 day of work... Don't want to jinx us, but when was the last time the Brewer's were 15 games over .500? 1992? We got to 14 over 5 separate times last year, the last time on July 2nd. July 19th of last year we were 54-41 and it was all downhill from there. Just curious if anyone knows if it goes back to '92. A win tomorrow with CC going Wednesday? I'd take our chances.

Well, we have eliminated all of the purples from the chart, and we are down to 5 poor outcomes out of 20 possible. If Cubs lose tonight...Randy Johnson 2-hitter thru 7...we eliminate 2 more. That would leave 7 greens out of 16, c'mon D-backs!