obobo55

Just heard that not only is he a AAA all-star, but he is starting the game for the PCL. I know he is 30 and from Australia. I see his stats which seem fairly ordinary, but 106 K's in 96 innings is nothing to sneeze at all the same. What does he throw? Does he have a larger story behind his route to AAA (late start because he is an Aussie?, coming back from injury?, etc.)? I'm sure this can be found here somewhere, but I am curious to hear comments on this guy too. Do any of you think he has a future with the Crew? What value would he have as a throw-in on a deal? (At his age do we truly control his rights? Couldn't he just sign a deal with a ML club?) I guess I just find this type of player intriguing, as it is not often you find a 30 year-old having this much success in AAA. Maybe it is more common then I am imagining...

I just think it is funny that this comes up today. He pitched a fine game.....................................until he blew up. Why that happened is beyond me. Before the 6th he had given up 5 hits and no walks and 1 single HR that snuck out at the foul pole. At 75 pitches there is no way to know that all of a sudden he cannot find the plate with anything but meatballs. I think many here again have too high expectations of Capuano. To me he is just like Suppan. A decent innings eater that gives you a chance to win if the team gets 5 runs. He has never been in the "ace" category IMO, he just can't go 8 innings giving up 2 or less very often. At 30 with his money years about to hit the premium level, if the Brewers can get premium talent in a trade for him I think it is worth exploring. I'm not sure he is at a sell high point right now but hopefully he can show his stuff over the next 3 starts leading to the trade deadline. That would put Melvin in an interesting position of deciding to keep him (because he is pitching well at that point) or dealing him and extracting something he feels we need to get over the top. Everyone seems to want to label someone on our staff as our #2. I don't think we have anyone that is in that category. Sheets is (at his best) a true ace, but after that we have very middling talent for our starting rotation. Perhaps Yo can develop into that, but how often did he ever get to the 7th or 8th in AAA this year? I think it is a bit too optimistic to expect him to replicate his early success over the long haul this early in his career. Take Cappy, Suppan, Bush, and Vargas for what they are. They are adequate (and together they are better than most teams have for a staff), but none of them blow you away with their stuff. They will get hit at times and some days they will be lights out. Each of them will rely on good run support to be much better than .500. Hopefully our offense is good enough to do just that. Today it clearly wasn't and Yost was mad that as soon as the offense scraped out a lead (in no small part from Cappy himself) he proceeds to walk a .050 hitter. Once he gave up the meatball (since we didn't score again) the game was over at 3-2. The other runs didn't mean anything in effect. Of course we don't know if it would have played out that way, but still..... OK I guess I wandered a bit there, but my point is that Cappy pitched OK today and I expect him to be OK the rest of the year. I don't think he will be dominant. I don't think he is untouchable. I also don't think he is worthless and should be taken out of the rotation. If a team comes up with a great offer I wouldn't hesitate to deal him--we have good enough depth in SP talent that we could afford to give one up--but I would be just as happy to keep him in the rotation for the rest of the year too if the deal isn't right. Average SP are very valuable (at least in $$$). Not sure someone would bowl us over for a guy like Cappy, but it is not outside of the realm of possibility either. He is fairly durable, lefthanded and relatively cheap for at least another few years. Just keep your expectations in line with his talent level and you'll see that he is what he is.

Despite the 3-7 road trip, the Brewers still have the 2nd best record in the NL at the break to the Padres: SD 49-38 MIL 49-39 LAD 49-40 NYM 48-39 ATL 47-42 ARZ 47-43 CHC 44-43 So even if the Cubs stay ridiculously hot, the Crew still is in a good position at this point for the wildcard. Half game lead on the Dodgers and Mets and 3 games on the D-backs and Braves. In the AL we would be in 6th overall behind Seattle (48-36) and Cleveland (52-36) for the wildcard. Fixed the stupid EZBoard emoticon thing - b19

So you have the Cubs going 12-5 huh? At 11-6 they would still be just tied with us. Somehow I don't see the Cubs playing that well.

I will limit my post to today's game since for the most part I think Ned does OK. I think today was poor management by Yost but I think I understand what may have happened. The Crew finally manages to scrape up a couple of runs and takes the lead. Capuano goes out to pitch and walks the leadoff hitter (batting .050). Yost goes to the mound and tells Cappy to quit nibbling and Chris proceeds to throw a meatball which gets blasted. At that point, Ned is furious and decides to let Chris work his way out of the inning since the lead is already gone. Of course Chris cannot do so and by the time Ned gets someone warmed up the damage is done. Now many here will (and did on the chat) claim that with the break Yost had the entire bullpen to use. My guess is that Ned was trying to drive a message home that he needs his starters to go more than 5 innings. How many times in the last few weeks have our starters gotten past the sixth inning? Cappy was cruising and all of a sudden he melts down... Yost has to be crushed by that development and despite the circumstances of this particular game, he wasn't about to pull Cappy after 5 just because it is hot. Once the lead was lost he figures well we might as well get through this inning without burning the pen. I didn't get to hear the post game interviews, but I'm curious at how mad Yost was with the development of that 6th inning. Did anyone talk with Cappy? I wonder if he was upset with Ned... Hopefully they both can put this game behind them and Cappy can start to give us some quality starts after the AS break.

Might as well get this started so we can move past the debacle of the just-ended road trip. 10 at home--Colorado for 3, Arizona for 4, SF for 3 8 on the road--Cinci for 4, StLouis for 4 (with a DH on Saturday) This is all we really have left before the trade deadline. If they really pour it on they could shut down the Cubs or others ideas of making a deadline deal. If they struggle they may be forced to make a move of their own to patch up whatever Doug and Ned feel ails them. With no off days we can expect the top 2 starters to each get 4 starts during this stretch, #3, #4, & #5 to go 3 times, and one of our long guys to get the spot start in the double-dip. Who do you put in the 3/4/5 spots? I'd be tempted to put Suppan, Cappy, and Vargas there and go with Sheets and Bush at 1 & 2 right now. That allows those two to pitch in each series except against SF. So I will start with my hopes: 2/3 from the Rockies 3/4 from the Dbacks 2/3 from the Giants 2/4 from the Reds 2/4 from the Cards 11-7 overall, perhaps stretching a bit on the homestand as I could see them dropping an extra game to either the Snakes or the old men, but I could see a sweep of the Rockies or Giants too. Would be nice to take 1 more from the road trip (beating the Reds one more time doesn't seem all that hard), but I figured if they lose another home game they could make it up by winning another here. That would put us at 60-46. Cubs would have to go 15-2 to catch us...................even if they went 12-5, they would still be 3 games back. A more normal stretch of 10-7 would have them at 5. To really knock them out we probably need to do better or they need to hit a slump, but I would take that at the trade deadline.

Just curious, but do we any update forthcoming? BTW--thanks for all you guys do, not meaning to rush you as I'm sure these summer months are very busy for you all.

I know nothing. From what I have heard and read, pitchers can get away with throwing mainly their fastball in single A. Once you get to AA, the hitters can hit those "dominating" 90+ pitches for the most part. Then it becomes a matter of your skill with the more deceptive pitches. For a pitcher, he has to master not tipping his pitches. The fastball and change-up need to look the same to the batter. Batters now see a steady supply of off-speed stuff, they need to be able to capitalize on those too. What bothers me is the guys like Hendrickson. His curve was a incredible pitch. I'm not sure if he got his K's in AAA swinging or looking on that pitch, but in the bigs they would just let it drop low. Was that a case of the smaller strike zone in MLB, or just that much vetter pitch recognition by the better hitters?

Well with 2 games left, they have reached my expectation level with 11 wins. They took an extra game from each team they faced at home and lost 1 more than I hoped for on the 2 road series. Even if they lose these last 2 games, I can't be all that disappointed. Unfortunately the Cubs have decided to get really hot, so it would be nice to wrap up this stretch with at least 1 more win and get to 50. Over the break, I think I will post another expectation thread on the 18 games in 17 day stretch they face to approach the trade deadline... 50-38 sounds really good to me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I have liked Parra all the way through his time with the farm clubs. Sure he had injury troubles which slowed him down, but he has shown that he has pitched through them and now has over a full year's worth of stellar results at AA+. Once you show you can pitch at the AA level, I am convinced for the most part you can succeed in MLB. Sure there are instances like Ben Hendrickson or Obermueller, but they both had slow fastballs. Parra reportedly brings it in the nid to low 90's which for a LHP is superb. I am OK with trading away Jeffress or Inman at this point in time if it is going to put the team over the top, they haven't succeeded on the higher levels. At the same time, it better bring something great in return. With the cost of MLB-average starters the way they are now (Suppan's contract is a good example), the crew needs a continuous supply of cheap pitching to compete. You claim we can continue to nugget mine for that pitching. While Melvin has done very well to find Cappy, Bush, & Vargas, none of those guys are the type of pitcher you want to run out in the postseason. You need a guy like Sheets and the only way the Brewers will ever find one is by bringing him up through their system. Will Yo/Inman/Parra/Jeffress/Rogers ever achieve that level? Who knows, but I feel better with 5 possibilities than I do with 2 or 3. Unless someone is going to blow you away in a deal, hang onto the starters that have success in the minors. Trade away the guys that are decent like Jackson if you must, but hold onto those if you can too, you never know when the injury bug will hit.

I think your point about early season success goes for position players as well. It is really hard for most fans to capture splits easily. They make up their minds most often when they follow the games the most--early in the season. So Jenks is awful and JJ Hardy is an allstar. When you look deeper into the numbers, all players go through their ups and downs over the course of the year. Whether that is due to wear-and-tear, making adjustments, being "in the zone", or whatever I don't know but it happens with just about every player on every team. It probably just seems more pronounced with starters since they have a much smaller sample to work with. ERA can jump a lot with a bad outing, it is much harder for a batter to see that kind of effect this late in the season. To me, I think fans overreact to many things. Ned (and most managers) do well to weed out the limitations of short-term statistics and stick with guys that have proven themselves in the past.

Well you never know with games in Pittsburgh, but Iike our chances going against the Pirates and Nats a lot better than I did against Philly, LA and SD. Now they still need to go out and beat those teams but I think we should do a bit better than the 3-11 we did in that stretch you are referring to.

The Crew is now 29-13 in Miller Park, which would project out at 56-25. What is the best the franchise has ever done at home? What is the best mark ever in MLB? I can't fathom a team winning 60 home games, but I'm sure Seattle must have when they won 116 that year. Actually I found some info on a google search-- Seattle won 59 road games in 2001 (and 57 home). Best ever home record is the '61 Yankees (65-16). Best in NL was the '75 Reds (64-17). Anyone know the Brewer mark?

Just thought some of you might want to revisit this topic in light of Monday's outing...

Well 7 games into the homestand and they have outperformed my expectations already. Took an extra game from both SF & KC and I like the odds of getting 1 of the last 2 against the Astros. 7-2 would be very nice and 6-3 though disappointing at this point would be very good too. Sure hope they can pull of my predictions on the road trip. That Cubs series looms large with their pitching staff putting together a nice string. It appears the pitching matchups will be Bush/Hill, Gallardo/Marshall, and Sheets/Marquis. So we miss Lilly and Zambrano, but face two very tough lefties...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif I'd still take 11-8 (5-7 rest of the way), but I am starting to get greedy. 50 wins at the break sounds really nice, 51??? 52???

On the one hand, there is no chance we steal him for Sarfate. At the same time I think I value Parra too highly to part with him for a relief pitcher. Manny could still turn out to be a LH strating pitcher who can "bring it" in the mid-90's. That is a very valuable commodity that is not tossed away lightly. He may just end up as a lefty out of the pen, which is VERY valuable as well, just look at what you can get in trade at the deadline for them. Or he could wash out completely either from injury or ineffectiveness. I just don't think now is the time to deal Parra. I like our pen in general. Could it be improved? Sure, but the cost of doing so is likely to be too high at this point in time. Maybe in a year or two if we are more sure that we have all the pieces you make a move like that. This year, I think we ride with what we have and see how it plays out.

9 game homestand (SF, KC, HOU) followed by a 10 game trip (CHC, PIT, WAS). It appears we will have 4 starts for Sheets, Vargas, & Bush, 3 for Suppan, at least 1 for Yovani, and 3 others for either a returning Cappy or Gallardo. I'd like to see a 5-4 homestand followed by a 6-4 roadtrip. Take 2 from SF, 1 from the Royals, and 2 from the 'Stros. Steal two from the Scrubbies, 2 at PNC, and 2 more in the nation's capital. That would put us at 49-39 at the AS break (27-16 home, 22-23 road) with a great chance to set up our rotation and 'pen as we see fit coming out of a long 4-day break and heading into a nice stretch of home games leading to the trade deadline. Anything better than 11-8 would be truly fantastic IMO. 10-9 would be fine too I suppose. Things might get a bit hairy if we do 9-10 or worse. Thoughts?

I really liked Darryl, but I don't recall if he was great in CF. He made some great plays in RF and I believe was amongst the leaders in OF assists a few of those years though. Overall though, you are absolutely correct. CF has been a complete wasteland and we have spent a bunch of resources (trades, FA contracts, draft picks--remember Green?) to try to fill that spot. Now we are playing a possible all-star SS out there...mostly because that is where we had a hole to fill. Would be nice to just develop one that we could put out there for 5-6 years and forget about it.

Anyone notice the .899 OPS Heether put up in May? I know he is 25 now but still a guy I like to follow a bit. Doubtful he has a place within the organization, but maybe he can have success to the point where he could be a utility guy somewhere for a team (throw-in on a trade?).

resolved. They are just dominating at AAA, it is almost silly. I simply refuse to believe that it is just a matter of ML hitters being that much better. Ben in particular has been virtually unhittable since he went down. Do we give them another chance if we have a need, or are we pursuing a deal for them?

Geno, how much of it is simply the opposition delivering more cautious pitches? With the lineup we had over the past 3-5 years, if you take the other big bopper out of the lineup why would the pitcher give Jenkins anything to hit? With guys like Helms and Counsell hitting in the 6-7 spots? One could argue that in that situation Jenkins needs to take the walk, but that goes against your image of the run-producer. You consistently argue that you want your cleanup hitter to swing and drive in runs at the expense of OBP. The thing that is nice about our club as it has added talent is that we actually have decent bats manning the 6 and 7 spots much more often. Opposition managers cannot afford to pitch around the 4-5 spots and assume they can just K (another reason I am happy Branyan might be gone) or induce a weak grounder from those players anymore. Whether it is Hall or Weeks or Fielder hitting in those spots next year, each are a good bet to hit a line drive and all still have the power element necessary to scare the opponent with the threat of a bomb. We still lack the true big bopper. Carlos appeared to be that for about 1 1/2 months this year. That guy where you truly fear throwing the ball over the plate in any way. The hope is that Fielder and Weeks develop into that type of hitter, but they need some time to adjust to MLB pitching. My only fear with Carlos is that by the time we are really contender level (not next year), he will be a very expensive player that cannot bring the thunder to represent that salary. The Brewers will likely be forced to make that decision sooner than later, do they wish to take the risk of inking him to the large deal he is certain to want and deserve based on his current level of production? Can they afford to lose his services with very little compensation? My answers to both of those questions are both NO, so I look to turn him into other assets while his value is highest. If the deals do not formulize, well then I guess I will stick it out with him and hope for the best, but I have to entertain the offers.

The main thing that everyone seems to be avoiding is that the club really needs to decide where they are going with CLee beyond next season. If they are prepared to sign him to a longer deal (or are willing to take compensation pocks if he leaves as a FA) then there is little reason to deal him. If they are reluctant to pay that cash, then holding on to him for next season (amd perhaps dealing him at the trade deadline) is foolish. His value will be much less at the deadline as teams know that we are desparate to get some value in return. My position all along has been that next year is unlikely to be our main opportunity window regardless. Prince, Rickie, and JJ are still awfully young to be counted on for truly great things, but the year after and the following 2-3 years are the ones we need to really focus on (2007-09/10). If we can get that 2nd great pitcher to team with Sheets over that period for a CLee talent that is what we should do. I have no idea if that guy is available or not. If you are not blown away in any deal for Lee, I am satisfied going with him for next season, but he should definitely be shopped. Many will argue that they would rather deal Jenkins. My argument there starts with the fact that we would be left with just 1 LH hitter in the lineup (Prince). Given his age, he also will likely bring less in trade. The biggest though is that he won't be holding a hammer over our head when his deal comes up again. Quite simply, we are in a tough spot with Carlos, we either bite the bullet and sign him to a big deal or risk losing his servuces for zero return. When Jenkins deal runs out prior to '08, we either shake his hand and tell him thanks for the memories or we can offer a reasonable 2 year extension at a modest price. The timing of Carlos's FA is just awful. He is right at that turning point where he could slide quickly or he may have a slow decline. For a large market club, taking on a bit of a risk will not hurt them, they sign him to a 4-5 yr deal and assume that he can at least be productive for the first 3 years. For the Crew, if he falls precipitously by the 3rd year it is a MAJOR disaster--particularly since that is when we are likely in our major push for glory.

I have thought about this a lot over the years ib regards to BA, but with the "new" OPS it effect is just about doubled... For BA, the difference between a .250 hitter and one hitting .300 comes out to about 1 hit a week (5 of 20 vs 6 of 20 for a player with 520 ABs in a season). So using OPS, since the BA portion is figured twice for the most part, yields a difference of .100 points or the difference between a .800 (mediocre to below average depending on position) and .900 (star) hitter. ONE stinking hit? It seems rather odd that just one seeing eye grounder or blooper over the head of the infielder per week can make that big a difference. I believe that is why the big swingers are a tad overrated. By just failing to put wood on the ball, they miss out on too many of those "lucky" hits. While you could argue that when that player connects there is a greater chance of it being a extra-base hit, I would prefer to get the guy who doesn't make outs. That being said, I agree with Brian in that I wouldn't mind having that free-swinging, high slugging % guy in the 8 spot. He can clear the bases when he connects and when he doesn't it was less likely that we would score in that inning anyways.

Didn't see it but that game is just an example of the value of an ace. Sounded like Zambrano could only throw 1 pitch, but when it comes in at 97 mph with movement it is tough to do much with it. Add in a generous strike zone, a helpful wind keeping well hit balls inside the park, and some unlucky rockets that found leather when we did get ahold of one and you have a 1-hitter. Sheets did pretty well for the most part, outside of the walks in the 2nd and one mistake pitch to Burnitz he held them to very litlle before tiring in the 7th. Oh well, hope for some luck tomorrow against Maddux and a decent effort by Santos. Would be very nice to take 2 of 3 and head home at 4-1 with Davis pitching.

Feel free to join the Chat!!!