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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    The following group's chances of being traded over the next year are next to nil because Brewers currently value them higher than their market, because of their relatively young ages, ability to contribute in the short term, and cost effective control. For that reason, I rate them untouchable. Gennett (save one horrendous month has been effective offensive contributor since 2013 and more than adequate with the glove) Perez (has earned first look as full time 3B replacement by raking since becoming a Brewer and still just 24) Davis (current role in platoon appears temporary. Career .483 slugger in pitching dominant era) Nelson (when on, most dominant starter on team, de-facto ace) Peralta (at worst a very good 3rd starter, still room for growth into a 2) Smith (only late inning lefty, also could potentially start) Jungmann (couldn't have gotten off to better career start....jury out on where he lands in relation to Nelson/Peralta. Might pass both) Knebel (down the road closing potential) Blazek (either starting or relieving is big in plans) Lucroy (2 more seasons of inexpensive control) is also untouchable due to fact they can't get enough value back and they lack an heir apparent at the position. Braun is untradeable but not untouchable. In theory no player is untouchable. In practice though, there are players that teams value higher than their worth in a deal. Brewers value very highly the guys on that list, more so than other teams would if they were to propose a deal for them.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    Reading between the lines of Melvin's comments the other night where he said basically "we have young players on our roster we like right now", I took it as they want to surround those young players with other young major league talent, not guys 3-5 years from the major leagues who may or may not even get to the big leagues much less be impact players and by the time they arrive, Brewers will no longer be able to afford to keep guys like Nelson, Peralta, etc. That's why Baltimore is not a match. They lack young talent both on their big league club and in their high minor leagues. Melvin and by inference Attanasio, is not interested in filling in around Davis, Gennett, Arcia, Nelson, Jungmann, Peralta, and bullpen arms like Knebel, Goforth, Smith, etc, and controlled vets like Braun and Lucory with a bunch of fringe veterans. They want more prospects/controlled young players with upside around them and see if they can be competitive with a younger team that's basically under control. I think they feel they are pretty well fortified in the lower levels as it is too.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    Well deGrom's stuff is overpowering, but a point well taken nevertheless. I believe deGrom was a SS in college, so he was learning his craft in the minors. Jungmann was a first rounder out of a big profile college program. His numbers in Huntsville/Nashville in 2014 were really pretty good. Getting him out of Colorado Springs has done wonders. It might be it's just his time at age 25.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    How about Parra to the Cubs for Dan Vogelbach? Vogelbach is obviously blocked in Chicago by Rizzo and he would give Brewers that young lefty swinging 1B prospect they lack. I wouldn't put him in the premier prospect category but with his patience at the plate and some pop, he's projectable to be a major league caliber 1B in the not too distant future likely 2017. Parra would be a significant uprgrade for Cubs over combo of Coghlan and Fowler in LF and CF and though he could sting them with all the games remaining this year between Cubs and Brewers, he wouldn't be of any help them in future seasons, unless they signed him to a long term deal which would at least tie up some of their money. Maybe throw in a low level sweetener or pick up most of Broxton's salary and include him and take Coghlan back in the deal as a stopgap 4th OF. He's controllable through 2016.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    I don't think Perez would have made his major league debut with Detroit at 21 if his ceiling was as a utility player. His lower OBP in leagues where he was 2-4 years younger than average don't concern me especially a guy who puts the ball in play. He looks plenty strong to have double digit HR totals.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    I would think Pompey is a must as part of any deal to Toronto for Gomez and that Norris would have to be included if Fiers is part of the deal. Its looking to me that Melvin is shooting for pieces that he can put around the young core currently here, not so much for 3-4 years down the road.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    I totally disagree on Perez. He's definitely worth an extended look. Gillaspie is a guy worth taking a look at to backup at 3rd and 1st if Lind is dealt. Gillaspie is 28 and has reached his potential. Perez hasn't. Again Perez, like Gomez, was brought to the majors before he was ready. Why? Because he does possess very obvious talent visually. He just turned 24 in March so he's 4 years younger than Gillaspie. His body to me is that of a guy with some power so while I don't think he'll slug his current .493 over the long haul, his power potential far exceeds that of Gillaspie. Gillaspie is also well below average defensively.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    Dealing them an Axford is one thing. Filling holes for them going beyond this year is quite another. The Cardinals could turn around and deal Lind after the season and essentially replace what they gave up to get him. Unless they significantly overpaid which isn't the Cardinal way, look elsewhere.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    O's aren't close to having enough for Gomez. Read between the lines of Melvin's comments about the present team having young players. He's looking more for high level players or controllable major leaguers. I still think Gemez won't get dealt until the winter.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    Jungmann has a WAR of 1.8 after 7 starts. That's tied for 8th among all rookies and is 4th among pitchers. All of the pitchers with higher WARs have more appearances and innings.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    If the Brewers can go 45-24 in the remaining 69 games, they finish 86-76. That's 21 games over .500. In 1991, Brewers went 40-19 over their final 59. That was Harry Dalton's last year as GM. The next year, they won 92 and had there been wild cards in those days, that would have been good enough for the postseason.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    Rogers is making a statement that he's ready for full time shot if Lind gets dealt.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Parra's offensive numbers (.841 OPS as of now) should he maintain them in an era where offense is hard to find will make him a premier FA this winter. Throw in the ability to play anywhere in the OF combined with his age (smack in the middle of his prime) make him well worth a QO. He might take it, in which case you essentially pay him what you paid Ramirez this year or he signs elsewhere and you add a late first or high second round draft pick. Obviously he needs to maintain his pace over the next couple months, but the fact that Counsell's come out and said he's going to get the bulk of the time in LF tells me that barring a trade the Brewers are considering the QO route. If he's still with the team August 1st, I think it's a foregone conclusion the Brewers will try to get something instead of letting him walk and just saving some money. If he takes the QO, an OF of Davis, Parra, and Braun is still a formidable one after a trade of Gomez and doesn't preclude a trade of Parra next season should they not contend. Or they could keep Gomez, and trade Lind and move Parra to 1B. Thing is they have lots of options to add some young talent without dismantling their roster completely. It's always an uphill climb for the Brewers competing with Cardinals and Cubs. There's no panacea. If they try to win every year and fail, guess what? They still get high draft picks. I hate the idea of purposely tanking seasons just to get rewarded with higher picks.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    I would put Hellweg and Hector Gomez in the likely dropped category and move Schafer into the "possibly dropped" category and leave Peterson off the list of drop candidates entirely, assuming off course Parra doesn't accept a QO and hits FA.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    Now Dominguez has never been a big strikeout guy, though he did fan 125 as an Astro last year and he's also walked as many as 56 times in the minors. Since he joined Colorado Springs, he's fanned just 5 times and walked just once in 90 plate appearances. Amazing.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    Earliest I see him being traded is after the 2016 season and that's no certainty. You just can't get value for a premier player in his prime with such a modest contract. That's the same issue with dealing Gomez. Both those guys would be certain to get QO if they get to FA and thus return a high draft pick regardless.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    But no catcher. In a vacuum, yes. However, that is why you have to accept the rebuild and move Ramirez, Gomez, Garza, Lohse, Broxton, Parra, etc... and target one in another trade. For example, if the Brewers got Walker and Paxton for Lucroy, maybe they could focus on say a D'Arnaud + deal from the Mets for Gomez. All those other guys can be traded without creating a hole that may take a decade to properly fill. Of all franchises, one that's gone through the rogue's gallery of lousy catchers that the Brewers have had should at least acquire an heir apparent first before surrendering arguably the best in franchise history. Teams knowing you need a catcher aren't going to give you one unless you pay up. Chasing one's tail might be amusing for a dog, but not a major league franchise.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    But no catcher.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    I'm betting the guy they are getting is Derek Norris from the Padres. Norris is expendable because the Pads have top prospect Austin Hedges about ready to take over. That and the fact that the Padres like to deal. Brewers aren't about to deal Lucroy now with them transitioning to a young staff. Maldonado is not a starting caliber catcher.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    I don't see any names on that list that are must keeps or that couldn't be replaced, though I'm sure a few they'll want to bring back especially the guys they've invested some time in, like Burgos, Pena and a few of the catchers who'd get spring training invites. Chapman and Kirkman too.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    Too many guys in the lineup were plain awful and/or hurt the first month, Braun, Gennett, Lucroy, Ramirez. Only Lind and Segura hit at all the first month. Far too many AB's were going to guys like Herrera, Hector Gomez, Maldonado, Schafer, etc. Had they gotten solid pitching from the front of their rotation, they might have weathered that but Lohse and Garza weren't up to the task. Roenicke failed to get the stench out of last year's collapse off of them and they began the year pressing both offensively and on the mound. That's on Roenicke but also on Melvin who should have fired RR at season's end. Living out of market, I get other team's perspectives on the Brewers. Almost to a man, out of town announcers wonder how a team with their lineup could be so far out of it. John Smoltz has been using the Brewers as prime example of why MLB should go to two halves. He believes the Brewers would be a major factor if they had reset the standings at the midpoint. Like me, he's not a fan of teams gutting their rosters the final couple months because they got off to a slow start. Now there's tremendous pressure on teams to sell off players, even those they control beyond the current season. That doesn't make for competitive baseball in August and September as regrouping teams are simply fodder for the contending teams that have loaded up.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    Going way back I believe I speculated on here about a Podsednik for Carlos Lee deal before it happened.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    I want to see Lohse released and further development from the young starters. I also want to see Garza find his groove and improve the chances of dealing him if not this winter by the deadline next season. If Ramirez can't be traded, I want him relegated to bench bat, with starts only against LHP or against the division rivals, and otherwise I want Perez playing full time at 3B. If they can't get value for Parra in a deal, I'd like to see him held on to and continue to rake so Brewers can offer him a QO and net a high draft pick. I'm fairly confident though that there's enough teams interested that he will net considerable value in return. I'm hoping for big second halves for both Segura and Gomez, the two most likely to be dealt this winter. I want to see good competitive baseball. I don't want to see them lay down and be fodder for the Cards, Cubs and Pirates. That would be disgusting. I want them to show they can compete with those teams. I don't want them to deal Lind without getting some top talent in return. I'd be fine going into 2016 with Lind at 1B. Mostly because I think a lineup that has Braun, Lucroy, Lind, and Davis in the middle of it has a fighting chance of staying afloat long enough for the debut of Arcia in early June and that's not even considering the possibility of getting some help at the major league level in return for Gomez and Segura or at least prospects that could emerge in 2016.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    There are others here who can better answer your question using advanced stats. But I'll say this, remember back to the 2011 season. Axford, KRod, Hawkins, and Saito were almost untouchable- especially down the stretch. When they got the 7th with a lead, game was over. And that wasn't even a dominant pen, other than the late inning guys. I've always maintained the pen is one area a small market team like the Brewers can compete with anybody. If two of their home-grown SP can become top of the rotation guys, and they build a dominant pen, that goes a long way to making them a contender again. I had forgotten all about that. That was indeed a lot of fun. Thanks for the reminder and the good points overall. Others have made some good points as well. Yeah the dominance of the bullpen in 2011 was indeed a prime factor in that season's success. Even with Prince gone the following year, had the bullpen performed as it did in 2011, they'd have easily made the postseason again that year. The 2012 bullpen was as bad as they were good in 2011. It wasn't until they were hopelessly out of it in 2012 that they turned to Henderson to close out of desperation that it stabilized some.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Actually Melvin has always used analytics. As far as Attanasio's son being involved I am always leery that. Hard to imagine it was an earned role or he was simply the best man available. But who knows? Maybe it will work out as well as Sal Bando hiring his kid to coach third base or Bud Selig hiring his daughter and son in law to run things. Chris Bando is Sal's kid brother, not his kid and played 9 seasons in the major leagues. They are 12 years apart in age, so understandable.
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