It's one thing to assume a very talented 22 year old everyday player will be around and still productive beyond the 6 years it takes to get to FA. It's quite another to assume any starting pitcher will be, regardless of age. What's so aggravating from my perspective is it's quite possible Nelson is as good as he's ever going to be right now at age 25, and he's using up innings in his arm getting minor leaguers out. Even if you figure the jump from AAA to the majors is worth 2 runs on a guy's ERA, that's still an ERA of under 3.50 in Nelson's case, a full run and a half better than Estrada has posted this year. Maybe Nelson still has room to improve, but how are they going to measure that improvement pitching at a level he's already dominating? By keeping him this long at AAA, assuming it's to avoid a Super Two year, they might think they are taking the "safe route". I suggest they are being foolishly risky. They are risking potentially not having the services of a top flight pitcher in the heat of a pennant race, something that is not all that common for this franchise.