JohnBriggs12
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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12
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Would those criticizing Melvin for not getting enough for the great Nori Aoki, then at least acknowledge that Melvin deserves credit for signing Aoki for next to nothing in the first place? Melvin essentially got Aoki out of thin air. That alone speaks to his acumen doesn't it? Not only that, it should give comfort that he can find adequate replacement for him as well.
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Its more like trading Peralta or Nelson for a below average starting RFer than Fiers. Same age but Smith has had more success at AAA. I'd put Smith more on the the level with Thornburg ironically the guy who'll will be his number one competitor for that last rotation spot. Each has shown enough success at the major league level and all through the minors (save Thornburg's 2013 Nashville numbers) that he goes into 2014 with a roster spot that's his to lose and quite possibly a rotation spot. Smith (7th) and Thornburg (3rd), weren't necessarily on people's radar as top picks are, but each successfully navigated through the minors fairly quickly and earned their way to the big leagues at fairly young ages, Smith at 22 and Thornburg at 23. That certainly separates them from Fiers certainly for their ceilings. Both guys could have very nice careers as relievers too but with starting pitching at such a premium teams would be shortsighted not to give them shots if possible at becoming starters. Having both just increases the chances of hitting the jackpot with a guy like that. The more young, pre-arby starting pitching you have the more money available to lock up players elsewhere, something the Brewers will need to do when the Lucroy's and Gomez's contracts are up. That Smith is a lefty and therefore rarer, makes his value even higher.
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Marlins reportedly close to signing Jones.
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90s Brewers Similarities to 10s Brewers
JohnBriggs12 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Jaha had as much power to the opposite field as any hitter I've ever seen. He loved hitting in old Tiger Stadium. He had 10 HR there in 120 plate appearances. Almost all of those were deposited in the upper deck in RF. He might have hit 55 or so home runs had he played for the Tigers in those days. -
Mariners sign Robinson Cano: 10 yrs./$240mm
JohnBriggs12 replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
As crazy as this contract is, from a purely business standpoint Seattle is one place where there is actually the potential for the return on investment to be positive at least for the first few years. The Mariners drew 1.76 million, or roughly 45% of capacity. In other words they had over 2 million unsold seats in their park in 2013. Now how many of those 2 million unsold seats that Cano can help sell is debatable, but if they contend ( big if), they may sell enough to generate revenue to pay his salary though there are obviously cheaper ways to build a winning team. But if your Jack Z, your time is almost up, so desperation takes over. -
Sorry but if you are going to bring up the Marcum for Lawrie deal it needs to be in context. That deal was done BEFORE the Greinke deal at a time Melvin had no idea he'd also land Grienke. I'm certain that if the Greinke deal had already happened, they hang on to Lawrie and that deal never happens. That team went on to win 96 games, a club record. Clearly the time was right to go "all in" so to 2nd guess him over that is reaching. Melvin can be questioned over a number of things he's done, drafting, some managerial selections, a long term contract here and there, a questionable FA signing,and the occasional trade gone bad, but over 11 seasons, anyone in that job is going to have both pluses and minuses on his record. He's also done a lot of positives, some that I didn't always agree with at the time but turned out fine too.
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The Trade With the Braves Thread
JohnBriggs12 replied to splitterpfj's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Now that the Brewers have added another pitcher to the rotation mix, is it time to revisit the Lohse to Atlanta talk? -
This is all about depth and flexibility in the entire pitching staff. With so many guys with options available they can change out guys that are struggling. It's likely Smith will start and relieve. Same goes for Thornburg. If either or both fail, they do have numbers behind them, Nelson, Hellweg, Burgos, Fiers, Jungmann and one of whom could emerge or re-emerge and help at some point. They are better covered too if Gallardo, Lohse or Estrada have some DL time. While everyone points to Davis as being the guy who'll pick up the offensive slack, let's not forget Gindl who I think looked very good last year too even if the numbers weren't as impressive.
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90s Brewers Similarities to 10s Brewers
JohnBriggs12 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The 96 team scored a whopping 894 runs. Amazingly that was no better than 7th in the AL that year. That would have led all of baseball by a wide margin in 2013. Of course other than Ben McDonald (3.90) no other Brewer starter had an ERA under 4.86. So this team has a long way to go to match the prowess of the 96 team which really was the peak year for that group. But it's a more pitching dominant game now so tough to compare. -
Let me address several issues people have brought up. 1. He didn't do well as a starter in 2012. Response: He was 22-23 years old and really needed more seasoning in the minors but the Royals were painfully short of starters. Still he had 8 quality starts out of 16 facing teams with a DH, and four times made it through 7 innings. In other words, he showed flashes much like Peralta has done in his time in the big leagues. It's not like he was Manny Parra who was struggling in a rotation at age 26 or 27 after multiple chances. 2. Why do the Brewers need another 4-5 starter/reliever? Response: They needed to add depth to their rotation and bullpen. Sure they could have gone out and signed a veteran for that role, but even 4-5 guys are commanding $5-7 million as FA, and when you spend that much you are pretty much committed. The Brewers can now let Smith compete with Thornburg for the 5th spot with the other guy a valuable bullpen piece. In fact I could see a situation where both Thornburg and Smith essentially share the 5th spot, with the starter in any given series depending on the team they are facing. Having a lefty to face the Reds is a plus. If I were a Royal fan, I'd be worried that Smith is a mid rotation guy and that in a year or two, Aoki will be with the Red Sox or Tigers and Smith will be putting up double digit wins in Milwaukee.
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Everyone needs to keep in mind too that Aoki is under control only through 2014.
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Kudos. Smith is a young power lefty who's had some success in the big leagues. Starter or reliever it's a good return. They needed room for Davis, along with Gindl in the OF.
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I love this deal. What's not to like? He was almost exclusively a starter in the minors, so he certainly could be a starter at some point. There's been a few lefties that have done that in recent years. Meanwhile, he's a heck of a good reliever and he fills a need in that area. He's not really a loogy as he can go multiple innings, but he's been devasting on lefties. They hit just .157 off him last year. Plus, he's just 24. Had 143 K's over 122 combined innings last year. Thanks Nori for two excellent years! Good luck with KC. I'm not sure what those of you who are disappointed were expecting, but Smith is a power lefty arm that can start or relieve, and power lefty arms aren't exactly in abundance in this system. He came up at 22 in 2012 and started in the big leagues. I'd think he has a ceiling higher than a 4 or a 5.
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I love this deal. What's not to like? He was almost exclusively a starter in the minors, so he certainly could be a starter at some point. Meanwhile, he's a heck of a good reliever and he fills a need in that area. He's not really a loogy as he can go multiple innings, but he's been devasting on lefties. They hit just .157 off him last year. Plus, he's just 24. Thanks Nori for two excellent years! Good luck with KC.
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Rockies sign Justin Morneau: 2 yrs./$13 mil
JohnBriggs12 replied to jjkoestler's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They definitely have $6 million in their budget for 2014. Teams are getting an extra $26 million per year with the tv contract and they get out from under both Weeks and Ramirez next year so they could back load it just a bit too. I'm thinking though Hart will be pricier than Morneau. More like 2/$16 million. Personally, I would have grabbed Morneau. He would have done fine in Miller Park and they could use the lefty bat more. -
Time will tell if he played "over his head" or not. Prospect lists are opinions based on projections, hardly a scientific measurement of future success. They are often wrong. Matt Carpenter never appeared on BA's top 100 list either. Was he playing "over his head too"? Tons of guys with great major league careers were never top 100 prospects. I don't see people getting all that excited. Weeks has been awful the last 2 years. The bar isn't that high for Gennett to be better. He was a lot better in 2013. Let's see how he does. He's earned a shot. Situations like Matt Carpenter in St. Louis happens once in a decade. Not exactly what I'd like to bet on especially in this market. And maybe over history there were examples of guys who weren't touted as prospects but had nice careers, but tell me, over the last five years, who would this apply to? (Seriously, I'm asking - lets name some. Cause I don't believe there's many, although maybe I'm overlooking some players) Paul Goldschmidt was never on BA's top 100 list. I'm too busy to look up others, but there are plenty, particularly among 2B which doesn't get a lot of love on top prospect lists.
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10-15 HR per year is not unrealistic by any means for a guy who hit 9 in 3 of his 4 pro seasons at ages where his body wasn't even fully mature. Even if he's Gantner or Loretta in their primes I'd take him. Gantner was a cog on teams that won a ton of games, and my goodness, Loretta was a .295 career hitter who put up MVP like numbers in 2005 playing in San Diego of all places. His WAR that year was 6.0.
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To think some thought the Brewers made a mistake signing Gomez last year. What a steal that deal was. Ellsbury's numbers the last few seasons are basically the same as Aoki's, with more stolen bases. Of course he plays CF too.
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In 2012, he slugged .478 on the road and .329 at home. Last year it was less pronounced, .400 on the road and .353 at home, but the park appears to be a big factor. It takes a lot to get it out of the new Miami park from straight away RF (392) to CF (422). I'm guessing the Brewers would expect more like 20-25 HR.
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Time will tell if he played "over his head" or not. Prospect lists are opinions based on projections, hardly a scientific measurement of future success. They are often wrong. Matt Carpenter never appeared on BA's top 100 list either. Was he playing "over his head too"? Tons of guys with great major league careers were never top 100 prospects. I don't see people getting all that excited. Weeks has been awful the last 2 years. The bar isn't that high for Gennett to be better. He was a lot better in 2013. Let's see how he does. He's earned a shot.
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I could see them having interest in Gindl. Gindl is odd man out if Aoki stays and I think he impressed some scouts with his performance late in the year.
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I for one don't think we've seen the last of an effective John Axford. He's going to get a deal somewhere. I think the Brewers need to add one veteran to the mix, and he's on sale. Another guy in that category that was non-tendered yesterday was Ronald Belisario. He's had a checkered past (VISA issues, suspension for cocaine), and he regressed in 2013. But he was very good in 2012 and giving the up and down history of many relievers, who knows where he'll be in 2014?
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There'd be no downside in picking him up... you'd rather continue on the 'Juan Francisco is terrible' merry-go-round? I think you mean terrible-go-round. If I were Gamel I would not sign with the Brewers. I would go somewhere I have a chance to start or at least a good chance to make the MLB club. It is clear the Brewers don't think much of him. I don't think he would get a fair shot at this point. If all else was even the Brewers would pick the other guy whomever that may be. Such a place does not exist for guys in their late 20's coming off two lost seasons with no significant major league track record. He has to prove a. he's healthy and b. he's retained his skills. He's going to have to that at AAA somewhere. I don't think the Brewers have a AAA spot for him so I doubt they'll have interest. I think being non-tendered by a team with one of the thinnest rosters in baseball gets the message across.
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Morrison has struggled big time in the Marlin's new home which is not surprising considering its 392 feet to straight away RF and 422 to dead center. If they don't have to give up much, I'd take him over say Ike Davis. I could see him putting up decent numbers in Miller Park. He might also thrive playing in front of bigger crowds.
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Phil Hughes to Twins: 3 years/$24M
JohnBriggs12 replied to WV Brew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Twins have a lot of money with Morneau off the books and the $26 million extra that every team is getting from the new TV deal. They had to do something after back to back 66 win seasons, and attendance in free fall. They couldn't wait for prospects and high draft picks to spark interest. I still don't think they are very good, but at least they have something to sell.