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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    Not to take this off topic but Rivera will probably cost about $1-2m and I'm not sure the Brewers are willing to pay that for a backup catcher.Rivera wouldn't get more than $650,000 in arbitration if that. He won't get anything close to $1 million, much less 2. He's a 1st year arby guy who's hardly played. Augie Ojeda, who played a lot more than Rivera, was a first year arby guy last year and got $715,000. That's not to say they won't non-tender him to save $200K, but it's more likely that since Zaun plays mostly against right handers, that his backup would be a right handed hitter and even if non-tendered, there's nothing stopping them from bringing back Rivera at near minumum again after non-tendering him. The real shame of this is that it likely means Lucroy spends all or most of 2010 in the minors. No way they keep him up now. The only bright spot is we won't see Kendall around.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    If you take the sentiment and the focus on his 09 numbers out if it, and realize it's going to cost more than $2 million for what is essentially a part time fill in who'll be 40 in August, you might get much better value out of a guy like Augie Ojeda assuming the D-Backs would non tender him. Ojeda's last 2 seasons have been very typical pre-09 Counsell-like years and the Brewers paid $1 million for that last season and were happy. Another non-tender possibility I really like is Alfredo Amezaga, who got hurt and missed most of 09, but prior to 09, had 3 solid years (all in the .260's) as a super utility guy with Marlins. Because the Marlins had Ramirez, Amezaga rarely played SS, but that's his natural position. With him you get the bonus of a guy who switch hits and can play all 3 OF positions in addition to 3 INF positions. He'd probably cost less than Counsell too.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    Another guy that might fit in this discussion is Brad Penny. Had some injury issues in 08 and started slow in 09 with Boston but came on with the Giants.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    Meche is a pretty big risk. He'll make just over what Vasquez makes in 2010 each of the next 2 years and he's had shoulder issues crop up more than once. For a $24 million commitment, the Brewers could get 3 years out of most of the FA crop that's out there. I like DeJesus a lot. He hasn't played much RF, but he's been double digits in assists more than once so his arm must be at least passable to play RF. Plus he can play CF in a pinch too. What I really like is that he can leadoff and he's lefthanded. He's got a career .367 OBP batting leadoff, and he never had the kind of thunder in KC batting behind him he'd have in Milwaukee. He would allow the Brewers to move Weeks into an RBI spot in the order.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    The problem with Harden is he was "healthy" last year as a Cub and totaled just 141 innings and still allowed 23 home runs despite his "stuff". He rarely went over 6 innings and because he was "healthy" he'll demand more guaranteed. Given that all Melvin talked about late last year was that they had no starter who totaled over 200 innings and that caused problems through the entire staff. I just don't see Harden as any kind of solution. The problem with Sheets is that Jason Jennings had the same surgery and he's nowhere near the pitcher he was before. That is a big concern for a guy who's exclusively been a power pitcher. The problem with Bedard is it's uncertain when he'll be available to pitch. I like him better than either Sheets or Harden though because he'll likely get a higher incentive percentage than either Harden or Sheets and he's lefthanded plus. That leaves my choice Duchscherer. His elbow surgery in March 09, was a "cleaning out" and not to correct major structural damage. He was reportedly throwing the ball well in August. Every report I've read is that he's got his depression episode under control too. But the big reason is that overall, he's got a lot less mileage on his arm than the other 3.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    Barring an injury, I don't think Escobar's coming out of the lineup so that might not be as big an issue as many think. I believe Escobar is thought of as a cornerstone player much as Braun and Fielder are, and those guys don't take days off unless their hurt. By the way, Iribarren's been playing almost exclusively in the OF in Venezuela this winter, including CF over the past couple weeks. He (.850 OPS) and Escobar (.895 OPS) have been swinging hot bats down there too as teammates.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    The Cubs got accomplished finding someone to take Miles' $1.7 million of his $2.7 million contract. They needed to include Fox to get that done. Otherwise they were going to have to eat the entire amount because he wasn't in their plans. I just posted yesterday that if Miles got let go by the Cubs, he'd make a decent alternative to Counsell. Maybe the Brewers could still pull a deal with Oakland if they want Miles. Even at $1.7 million, that's a lot for Oakland to spend on a utility player. Fox clearly is an AL player, so Oakland got what they wanted too.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    Once we see who doesn't get tendered among the arby eligible, we'll know more. None of the names yoshii8 brought up are all that appealing. I still say you can't count out Iribarren as part of the IF and OF depth. I don't see the Brewers trading for one unless he's part of a larger deal. One guy that might be a bargain later is Aaron Miles. With Baker, Fontenot, Andres Blanco and some talk that Theriot will move to 2B to make way for either Blanco or young SS phenom Starlin Castro, Cubs don't appear to have room for Miles so they may just eat his contract.. He might not be as good as he showed in 08, but he's certainly not as bad as his 09 numbers. For some reason, he just didn't fit in on that Cub team.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    I agree with yoshii8. His numbers have fallen rather significantly the last 2 years and he's 34. With plenty of other options, I can't understand the Phillies giving him the 3rd year. He's still a solid player though and won't hurt them in the short term.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    Can't wait to see that Halama/Zaun battery. Oh, wait it's 2010, not 2000. What, they forfeit a high draft pick because there is no room in the budget to even risk offering a solid player like Lopez, yet they are dickering with signing a soon to be 39 year old part time catcher that's really no better than what they have for a couple million? Not that I'm completely opposed to signing a catcher, but I'd want one that brought more than gray hair, like an Olivo. Otherwise, I'd rather see a Kottaras/Rivera platoon for 2 months, then bring up Lucroy (saving an arby year) in early June.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    Dye isn't a terrible RF, he just can't run any more. Period. Range is down to nothing. Dye also fell apart offensively over the last half of 2009. After the All Star break he hit .179/.293/.297. In short at soon to be 36, it certainly appears he's got nothing left in the tank. Even if his bat revives, he's strictly an AL player. Now lets talk Zaun. What is it with Melvin, and his fascination with elderly catchers? Sure Zaun's numbers looked pretty decent in 09, but so did Damien Miller's the year before he became a Brewer and Jason Kendall was nearly a lifetime .300 hitter before he became a Brewer. Zaun will be 39 in April, isn't familiar with either NL pitching or most NL hitters and is likely at the tipping point of being done. I hardly see him as an improvement over what they now have. Why waste money on this guy when you're too cheap to even offer Lopez?
  12. JohnBriggs12
    I don't think Gomez has that long a leash coming off a .229 year and he still has options. Just because they gave up Hardy for him doesn't mean he's got the job sewed up. Brewers could feel he needs to regain some confidence as a hitter and may decide that would best happen in Nashville. Gerut is more of a RF than he is a CF. Plus adding Pagan could mean they'd non tender Gerut. I do agree that the Brewers have guys that handle left-handers pretty well so I don't know where that's coming from.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Here's what bothers me. Isn't Melvin the same guy that in 2006 signed Corey Koskie when he already had Bill Hall coming off a good year in 2005 to play 3B? Oh, I forgot, Koskie was from Canada. Never mind. Would anyone be bothered if they had to find a place to play a .300 hitter with on base skills? Since when is having too many good players a bad thing? They couldn't trade Weeks or Lopez later? Would they really miss Dave Bush's 6+ ERA if they had to non-tender him to fit Lopez into the budget? This confirms what I've thought of Melvin for some time. He's okay when he focuses on one move at a time. But he can't walk and chew gum at the same time. He doesn't think 2 or 3 moves ahead.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    People keep going on about how we freed up $15M and not mentioning that some of that is going back into raises for current players. They are freeing up more than $15 million. They paid Cameron, Hardy, Looper and Kendall a total of $23.65 million last year. That's not counting the partial salaries they paid to Lopez and Weathers last year which was easily another $1.5 million. So that's basically $25 million freed total. It's probably safe to assume McClung who made $1.66 million won't get tendered either, bringing the "freed' total to over $26.5 million. Hoffman got a minimal base raise of $1.5 million. Fielder gets the biggest raise of $3 million. None of the arby eligible guys (Bush, Coffey, Gerut, Hart, Rivera, Villanueva, Weeks) figure to get huge raises. Coffey may get an extra million, but the other 6 shouldn't total any more than around 4 million in raises and that's assuming they all get tendered. and if they were to lock up 2 FA pitchers, I think they'll seriously consider non-tendering Bush. So total, it's likely no more than around $9-10 million in raises, not counting the nomimal amounts some pre arby guys will get. So the $15 million is easily a reference point for what they have to spend to keep payroll about even.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    I don't agree with too much, but he's got a point on Hoffman. They signed him quickly before the market was established because Melvin has difficulty multitasking and signing Hoffman was basically picking low hanging fruit. So he figured he'd take the risk of spending a couple million too much to get it off his plate and who's going to fault Melvin if Hoffman struggles some next year? I also think he could have waited longer on Hardy. He might not have gotten a better offer than Gomez, but why make that move in early November? If the Twins wanted Hardy, I'm sure they'd make that same deal in December. His point on Weeks' turning the DP is pretty spot on too isn't it?
  16. JohnBriggs12
    I think catcher and right field are still very much up in the air but the lineup right now projects to be: Weeks 2B Escobar SS Braun LF Fielder RF McGehee 3B Hart/Gerut/Gamel RF Lucroy/Rivera/Kotteras C Gomez CF Escobar has been tearing the cover off the ball in Venezuela (.379/.411/.476) and he did hit .304 for the Brewers. He might not be as patient as we'd like, but hitting in front of Braun and Fielder, he's going to get pitches to hit and he's got the ability to hit. They (Brewer braintrust) are "all in" on Escobar. Training wheels are off. Gomez is the guy who's offensively challenged and who needs to bat down in the order to minimize his impact. I believe either Hart or Gamel will be traded and the guy who's not figures to be in RF batting 6th. If Hart's the one who's dealt, look for the Brewers to go out and get a guy like Matt Murton to do some platooning.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    I don't see Texas dealing Millwood. Their rotation is very young and he's a stabilizing presence. Now if they were to add a veteran FA, then maybe. McCarthy on the other hand matches Hart in service time. He's had trouble staying healthy and he's not the real power arm that some crave, but when he's pitched, he's had decent success pitching in 2 very hitter friendly AL parks and at 26, his best days could still be ahead of him. I see this as a potential deal that doesn't dramatically favor either team on paper but one that does fit needs that both teams have. Since I think I've brought up a Hart for McCarthy deal several times dating back to August or so, it's nice to read an article that at least mentions both players.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    It's not a ton? Compared to what? It was a .294 BAA. That might not seem bad compared to Suppan's .309 BAA and Parra's .306 BAA, but it's worse than Looper's .289 and the same as Bush's .294. and it's nowhere near as good as many FA (Washburn: .243: Davis .266; Pineiro .268, Marquis .267 or even Penny .278 or Garland .282) Your standards have obviously been lowered by watching the Brewer staff. Pavano's HR allowed rate is better than Looper but it's not great either. It's about average. Hits are dependent on defense? So the Brewer defense played better when Gallardo (a .219 BAA) pitched? No, hits are dependent on hitters for the most part getting good wood on the ball and hitting it hard enough so that the defense can't get to it. Generally guys that give up lots of hits aren't very good. Pavano's K/BB ratio is fine, but it's mostly based on a very low walk total, not a particularly high K total. A very low walk rate isn't always good. In certain situations walks are preferable. It's also a sign he could be getting too much of the plate or that guys more often than not are putting balls in play early in counts.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    Belliard hit well but not "like crazy" in the minors and made it to the bigs where's he's had a long career. Luis Castillo had 1 HR in his entire minor league career and never played anything but 2B and he's got over 1,800 major league hits and 3 All Star appearances. Ray Durham had a career .753 minor league OPS, never played any position but 2B where he committed 30 errors in the minors one year, yet ended up with over 2,000 hits and made 2 All Star teams. Should I go on? Cano was no great shakes as a minor league hitter. Had a little power, but didn't hit much for average or have a high OBP. Yet he was permanently made a 2B at age 19. Iribarren's been at least as good a minor league hitter as Belliard was. He's better than Durham and he's got considerably more gap power than Castillo.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    Great player. Led Marquette to NIT championship the year McGuire turned down an NCAA bid.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    When you allow 235 hits in 199 innings, that's not bad luck, it's that hitters are finding it easy to get good wood on your pitches. If the FIP stat were around back in the day, Tommy John would have been labeled a number 5 starter who was extremely lucky his entire career. Never mind that he could get hitter after hitter to ground out to 3B. Apparently that was all luck.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    I'll admit, I appreciate it when "our" parking lot guy (Lee Roy, long of the Giants/Molitor lot) stops us to ask what our MPG was on each trip to Miller Park. (We have a Prius and one day in 2008, out of the blue, he asked us how we liked it.) It makes me feel that much more welcome. To Lee Roy's credit, he doesn't chat much when there's a line; but we usually arrive early enough to allow a moment. As for franchise milestones, if the Brewers are calling 2010 the "40th anniversary season," that seems reasonable. The "40th season" was 2009 (since the first season in Milwaukee was 1970). My 25th anniversary sweatshirt is dated 1994, which is consistent with labeling 2010 as the 40th anniversary. Finally, I think the 2010 Seattle series would be a fine time for some Pilots action. We could wear the Pilots caps we got at Safeco Field in 2006. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif My experience in that lot has not been too bad, but I can tell you I'm in no mood for small talk when I turn off of National Avenue on to MPW at 6:35 and the parking attendant (Mets/Dodgers) is taking my money at 7:10 in the middle of the first wanting to engage me in small talk after having done the same to the couple hundred cars in front of me. I don't need to feel welcomed. I paid to see the game and I want to get in the park and see it. Some of us don't have the option of arriving an hour and a half before the game.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    Just because a guy like Farris might not be the top 2B prospect in an organization doesn't mean he can't become an everyday 2B at the major league level somewhere hence he might possess more value keeping at one position than pigeonholing him at age 23 as a utility player. Obviously, the guy has tremendous base running skill and he was voted the best defensive 2B in the FSL. So for a lot of teams that could be enough to put him at the top at the 2B position. There's still plenty of time for him to be moved around the diamond as needs arise down the road. He's certainly not lacking for athleticism. One person's "utility guy" can be someone else's "2B of the future". Besides, there's no guarantee Lawrie will stay at 2B either.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    At age 29, the Rockies signed Todd Helton to a 9 year, $141 million dollar contract with an option for 2012 of $23 million. In the 7 seasons since signing the contract, the Rockies have been to a World Series and made the playoffs twice. Even though Helton was a major contributor on both teams, his numbers were below what he produced prior to signing the contract. Now it could be easily argued that he didn't quite live up to the big money he got, but it cannot be argued that the contract prevented the Rockies from fielding competitive teams, at least the 2 seasons they've made it to the playoffs. Some fear that signing Fielder to a long term deal at mega bucks will cripple the franchise. I think the Helton example proves otherwise.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Tom H has his top 30 on his blog this morning. Among the highlights: Schafer at 12, Salome at 15, Gindl at 17, D'Vontrey Richardson (09 round 5) at 18, Farris at 19 (finally some respect), Jeffress down to 21. Lots of young pitching in the 21-30 group. I'm looking forward to seeing what Richardson can do on the field.
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