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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    Lorenzo Cain:. 4 yrs/$64 million with an option. $15 million per year from 18-21, plus a $4 million buyout or a 5th year at $13 million. Neil Walker:. 2 years with an option. $9 million per year with a $2 million buyout or 3rd year for $8 million.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    Looking around the league, Walker may want 3-4 years at 10 million plus per year, but i see the odds being slim at best that he finds a team who meets those desires. I'm really curious to see if Villar can bounce back from his nightmare season, so i'm fine with standing pat at second base, but if Stearns can wait out Walker and get a deal for two years, i'd be fine with that also. There are going to be many free agents who went into this offseason with really lofty dollar amounts floating in their heads, but at some point will have to accept a reality that the market for their services simply isn't what they hoped for. What makes you think "standing pat" means Villar gets his job back? He was behind both Sogard and Perez at the end of 2017 and both those guys are still on the roster. If the fall back plan was to simply return Villar to a starter role, then why is the first offseason move to bring back Sogard for $2.4 million? Just because Villar is still on the roster, doesn't mean he's in the plans for 2018. Scooter was still around last year until near the end of spring training. He still let Scooter go even though his 2016 wasn't as bad as Villar's 2017 because Scooter was never in the plans for 2017. It's likely the same fate awaits Villar unless they can convince some team out there to deal for him. Right now there's zero demand.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    Calling his great year an "outlier" to make a point he's not worth big money is really misleading. His great year was one of the greatest years of any pitcher since the mound was lowered in 1969. It would have been an outlier for Verlander, Kershaw, Randy Johnson, etc. He logged close to 250 innings counting playoffs that year. Regression was inevitable. He followed that up with another big workload in 2016 and a short offseason. Verlander experienced a similar regression in his age 30-31 seasons but bounced back after logging only 133 innings at age 32. Arrieta's 2nd half in 2017: 2.28 ERA in 12 starts with a 1.09 WHIP. His first half was an outlier. The guy is a tremendous competitor and a workout fanatic. I'd take him over Grienke in a heartbeat. I wouldn't go over 4 years with an option, but if there's a guy out there worth close to $25 million a year, he's it. It's a big risk certainly (all multi year deals to pitchers are), but the Brewers have payroll room and could absorb it. It's 2018. Revenues across baseball are up significantly since the Brewers went "all in" 7-8 years ago and their payroll approached $100 million.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    Not a surprise. The fact that he wasn't called up after a solid AAA season was a sure sign the organization had moved on. He's 28. He needs a new start somewhere else.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    He's not an upgrade over a Sogard/Perez platoon who between them started half the games in a September playoff chase.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    What prospect capital? Castro's market isn't great. He's a salary dump. They'd take a Hernan Perez to be their everyday 2B (and potential flip candidate) and a lottery ticket type or two low level guy.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    Castro had a .374 OBP and an .836 OPS vs. LHP in 2017. For his career, his OBP vs. LHP is a respectable .341. Walker doesn't hit lefties well at all. Besides as it stands now, Walker isn't a Brewer so compare Castro's OBP to Perez. I've also been a Perez guy, but Castro is the better player. If they could get Walker for a 2 year deal for around what Castro would cost, fine. but I'd send them Perez and a prospect outside of the Brewer top 25 for Castro and that would offset a couple million per year. Sit Castro against some tough RHP and play Sogard. He also can slide over to SS if need be. Walker can't.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    I thought they were going to lose him for sure (much like I thought when they took Perez off the 40 man after 2015 that they wouldn't get him back and that worked out well) and would have given him a 40 man spot instead of Webb. Forget his age, there's very little mileage on that arm and he can have value as a 13th pitcher by being an extra bench bat as well. This is an under the radar move with upside. Like it. He posted a 1.28 ERA and a microscopic 0.78 Whip in the 2nd half for Biloxi. He can get both lefties and righties out too. For his first year pitching, he was phenomenal. K rate wasn't spectacular but he didn't walk many.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    VIllar started one game at 2b in September and that was the lone meaningless finale. Perez started 7 and Sogard started 6. Walker or no Walker nothing has happened since the season ended for Villar to jump ahead not one but two spots on the depth chart.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    I liked Lyle Mouton. Apparently Lopes didn't though. The guy was 30-31 but put up monster AAA numbers and was no slouch in the majors: .280/.339/.420. Couldn't believe when they took him off the major league roster in early July of 2000. It was not like that team couldn't use a bat like his off the bench.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    Your post preaches a moral point of view that many "decent" people don't agree with. Didn't MLB learn something from NFL national anthem fiasco? Sports should stick to sports. We watch and go to games to get away from this stuff not have it thrown in our faces. I'm all for people living their lives according to their views and what makes them happy. I shouldn't have to take a side either way at the ballpark. Can you imagine the howling if they had a "traditional religious values night"? Yet I could make a case that adhering to the Ten Commandments is good for society and and being "decent" people.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    Heyman is saying Cobb wants 4 years and a guaranteed $70 million. That's still an overpay but not far off from what it will take. I think Brewers should jump on 4 years $60 million myself. They could pay $14 million per year for 4 seasons with an option for a 5th or a $4 million buyout without stretching payroll so much that they couldn't still add a Walker or even Cain if they wanted to be bold and deal for another starter.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all. Merrifield has a track record of nearly 1,000 major league plate appearances. I have a hard time believing his numbers: .286/.324/.437 are fluky though I've long thought that if given a full time job that Perez could produce similar numbers. He took a little step backward last year in my opinion, maybe because all the moving around combined with a full winter ball stretch took a toll and there doesn't seem to be a commitment by Brewer brass to give Hernan an everyday job. But if I can get Merrifield in a package with Duffy who I like as much or more than Archer, then if I'm the Brewers I make this offer: Royals get: Brinson Woodruff Perez Ortiz Diaz Brewers get: Duffy Merrifield Then I go all out and sign Cain and my 2018 lineup and rotation looks like this: Cain Merrifield Shaw Braun Thames Santana Arcia Pina/Vogt Infield backups: Sogard, Villar, Aguilar OF Depth: Phillips Rotation: Anderson, Duffy, Davies, Chacin, one of Guerra, Gallardo, Suter That lineup WAR in 2017 per B-R: 23.9 and everyone is controllable at least through 2019 Rotation WAR in 2017 per B-R: 16.2 (Assumes Suter) and everyone other than Gallardo is controllable through at least 2019, with the top 3 all controllable through at least 2020.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    Arcia might turn into a good leadoff hitter at some point, but I've never understood the clamour during the season and offseason from some to have him leadoff. .324 OBP and 14(/21) SB doesn't exactly scream ideal leadoff hitter to me. Nor does the 89 OPS+. The leadoff hitter gets the most plate appearances, something like 120+ more than the #8 hitter over the course of the season. It should be one of your best hitters leading off. If not that, then OBP should be the priority above all else; it's the only time during a game where you know for sure the batting order in an innning, and know for sure who's leading off. Make the most of that by having him get on base. Anyway, I agree that Villar/Sogard will get the first crack at it. 2016 Villar and 2017 Sogard are both good leadoff options, but the other iterations of them aren't so let's see which one we get. Villar started one game at 2B in September and that was the finale that was meaningless. Walker started 14, Perez started 7, and Sogard started 6. Villar has an uphill battle just making the team even if Walker doesn't return because a Sogard/Perez platoon isn't a bad option. Sogard or Walker leads off vs. RHP. Against LHP, whoever is in CF, likely either Brinson or Cain will lead off.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    I get the same vibe when it comes to Brinson, hope not though. Do you guys ever watch the Royals play? Cain is an advanced major league bat and has been one of the best overall hitters in the game for the last 5 or so seasons. He's so far from an all or nothing hitter it's ridiculous. He's closer as a hitter to a RH version of Neil Walker than he is to Weeks or Gomez. BR calculates his career WAR at 27.8, and his 2017 WAR at 5.3. Weeks career WAR total is 11.3. Gomez is at 25.6 but he's been around longer than Cain. If Brinson accumulates 27.8 WAR for his career, then he'll be one heck of a player. Maybe he's only an elite defensive CF for 2 more seasons but Mike Cameron was an effective CF until his age 36 season. Cain takes good care of himself and should last at least that long.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    Weeks and Gomez have had contact issues their entire careers. Cain is toolsy but he's also a professional hitter. He's a career .290 hitter who's never fanned more than 108 times in a season. He's a pure hitter who's also athletic. If his athleticism fades some, he'll still hit. There's a huge difference. Weeks is a .246 career hitter that struck out a lot and never hit above .279 in any season. Gomez has had a better career than Weeks, but he too is more all or nothing type bat who's best season BA was .284. In fact, he'd not be a bad option either coming off a nice season where he posted an .802 OPS. Cain's played his entire career in a pitchers park too. He'd be an excellent sign. He won't turn 32 until April and even if he signs for 4 years (3 with an option is more likely), it would be a far better sign than say Aramis Ramirez was when he was signed for 4 years and $46 million at age 34.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    He was pretty much buried on the bench as a Brewer. Of course in those days, they kept 6 or 7 bench guys and the last couple didn't see much action. He's a few months younger than me. Sad news.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    No way Santana gets traded for low level prospects or a 2B.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    Arizona has zero desire to make that trade. They went many years with no pitching and all offense (and were terrible), finally got good pitching, and they’re gonna give it away to go back to the olden days? I’m high on Santana but they probably lose in value as well. Arizona has hole in OF left by Martinez and uncertainty over Tomas' health and production. They are actually pretty deep in starting pitching especially if they decided to move Archie Bradley back to the rotation. Brewers have pieces that could sweeten the pot too.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    I'd be fine with Carlos Gomez or Cain. They're both the same age. Cain makes better contact, but Gomez could be a bit cheaper. An OF quartet of Braun, Brinson, Phillips and Cain or Gomez? That will save some runs. Brinson and Phillips won't be arby eligible until Braun and Cain (assuming a 3 year deal) are off the books allowing money to be spent elsewhere.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    The Cobb route wouldn't be a wise route to go. This decision would a Melvin standard operating procedure type move. Lohse, Suppan, Garza...we know how these deals go. Cobb in addition to being even more expensive than those 3 guys carries more injury risk. No thanks. By the time his ask got down to a range that would in my opinion work for the Brewers, he'd already be signed with the Cubs or someone else. Cobb has a lot less mileage on him than Garza, Lohse and Suppan. Lohse was 34 when he was signed. Suppan had a career ERA well over 4 and was 32. Garza had shown signs of decline. Cobb has a career 3.50 ERA, all in the AL East. Relative to total team revenue, paying Cobb say $17 million per year is not any more than they paid those guys. Plus, they'd still have all their young arms who'd be able to fill his spot if he does get hurt. There's no such thing as a no risk move.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    I'd still like to get Robbie Ray from Arizona for Santana.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot. I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable. They actually aren't all that close performance-wise. One guys consistently posts high inning totals while the other you'd be lucky to get 160 innings from. Those 40-50 innings might be filled with someone like Wilkerson/Jungmann and a likely low 5s ERA. Cobb threw more innings in 2017 than anytime in his career, more than any Brewer other than Davies, and he averaged more innings per start than Davies. The only 2 starts he missed in 2017 were for turf toe. Had he made those two starts, he'd have exceeded 190 innings. He's good to go.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot. I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable. Last year they paid Garza $12 million or so to be the 5th starter. For roughly an extra $5 million you can get a guy who's no worse than a #3 and only give up a draft pick and still have room to sign Walker. Brewers can afford a $100 million payroll if not a bit more. Revenues are up from 4-5 years ago substantially. With a team that fell one game short last year, anything less short changes a loyal fan base. I like Cobb more than Lynn because teams in the NL are less familiar with Cobb than Lynn.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Bruce Levine says Cobb looking for $17-19 million per year. Cubs balked at that price. I think Brewers could be players at the lower end of that, but not for more than 4 years tops. That would be an overpay but not a drastic one.
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