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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. If they could grab a Patrick Corbin for little return as Arizona tries to shed salary, that's the way I would go over paying a ton for a FA or surrendering a ton of talent for a guy.
  2. Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter. I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs. If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's. Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization. Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff. OBP wasn't the problem as much as the propensity for strikeouts up and down the lineup, but especially in CF and to a lesser extent RF. They added two guys who put the bat on the ball a lot and get on base too. They happened to be both be outstanding defensive outfielders too. Between Broxton and Santana, that's 353 strikeouts many coming with men in scoring position. Defense in RF last year was very sub par and it will be as long as Santana is on the team, but at least now they can take replace him late in games with Phillips, another outstanding defender.
  3. Two of the last 3 years he's topped 600 plate appearances. He's coming off a year where he played 155 games and made 645 PA. That's 38 more PA than any Brewer in 2017. Paul Molitor had a lot of lower leg injuries early in his career and missed a lot of time. Injuries are a risk for any player. I don't see Cain has having any greater risk.
  4. Go with a Sogard/Perez platoon. Both had good platoon splits in 2017.
  5. HH (who'll be missed) touched on the reluctance to settle when it's apparent there is an overage at a position. They did that with Davis about this time in 2016 and didn't get nearly enough back (chances are no one of any major league impact at all for a guy who's hit 83 HR in 2 seasons) and they seem determined not to make that mistake again. i'm betting they would love to move him for Salazar and they'd take Kipnis too, but they are getting offers of multiple B and C level prospects just as they did with Davis. If that's the case, might as well hold on to him and let Counsel dole out the PT as best he can. Patience is the way to go.
  6. As I said a post up. My opinion is that almost all of the pitchers could be available by opening of spring training in a few weeks. However, the position players should start to fall shortly. What's this "few weeks"? Pitchers and catchers for most teams report a week from today. Brewers pitchers and catchers report next Wednesday. Regular season starts in March this year. Spring training games are just 2 1/2 weeks away.
  7. Walker doesn't have a deal because he's been looking for something like 3/33. Nobody is going to give him that. He'll be lucky to get what Frazier signed for.
  8. It's nice to hear that the Brewers realize they didn't get value for Kris Davis. How long have I been saying that? Stearns gets a thumbs up for learning from his mistakes.
  9. MLB Tonight just threw out a hypothetical on the marketing aspect of a Jake Arrieta signing with the Brewers. Coincidence?
  10. Why would Bundy be untouchable? Especially on a team nearing a tear down like the orioles are... Because he's got 4 years of control and hasn't reached his peak value. They have one more year of Machado. I expect them to see if they can catch lightening in a bottle with some veteran FA pitching then sell them off if their longshot bid fails.
  11. No thanks. I'd prefer Suter.
  12. We really don't know what Woodruff or Wilkerson offer at this point based on very small samples. We do know that Guerra's 2016 was better than what Cashner is likely to produce and that Suter was relatively effective as a 5 inning starter at least so they have several options. I'd be fine with Cashner if the Brewers hadn't signed Chacin or they signed him instead of Gallardo. Now if they have to use Woodruff and or Suter as part of a deal, then maybe Cashner is worth another look.
  13. I would expect Cashner to end up in Baltimore or even Pittsburgh. I could see him getting a 2 year deal easily. If he has a good first half on top of his 2017, he could become a flip candidate.
  14. Stearns statement doesn't cause me any alarm. To me he's basically saying overall he likes his roster and there's still no urgency on their part. Lots of deals get done in spring training which starts in 10 days. Half the GM's including Cleveland's will be in Arizona too. Over the next 10 days a lot of teams will be loading up on the remaining lower level FA and there's plenty of them still out there. Basically he's saying Brewers are fine with the roster makeup in general and won't be active leading up to spring training adding bodies. He left the door open for a deal for a premier pitching FA, but isn't holding his breath it will get done. When dust settles and teams see what they have in spring training, I suspect the trade market will be active.
  15. Bauer's FIP the last 2 years are 3.99 in 2016 and 3.88 in 2017, with 10 K's per 9 in the AL. There's a lot to like. He's a solid #3 with potential to be a #2. Remember Chase Anderson never had an ERA under 4 until last year either, when he posted a sub 3 ERA at age 29. Bauer just turned 27.
  16. Send me to the Nut House. Baseball Reference puts Archer's WAR at 1.8 for 2016, and 1.2 for 2017. If that's an ace, what does that make Zach Davies, who's WAR the past two years per B-R is 5.2 and that number doesn't even include his +0.4 WAR he got as a hitter in 2017 thanks in large part to his league leading 14 sacrifice bunts? Don't think his ability to get bunts down have something to do with Davies having a splendid .633 winning percentage? Think again. That's winning baseball and part of the reason Davies is so underappreciated.
  17. I stand corrected, I think Plush was working off my numbers and I was lazy in how I found what I thought Illinois tax rate was. Apparently tax rate is meaningless if not a benefit for Illinois. I guarantee cost of living is lower in Wisconsin vs Illinois though, probably matters more than the tax rates ever would. It was just a few years ago that the state income tax rate in Illinois was a flat 3%. They managed to raise it by 60%. Main difference in cost of living is housing. At the level Darvish is at, that's peanuts as I'm sure he'll have several residences. BTW, I'm an Illinois resident.
  18. Illinois has higher state taxes, a 3ish% difference in state tax on say $140 million is substantial. If you went to the Cubs board you'd see they think Darvish is going to sign with them for 4/$90...LOL. $120-130 is probably the low end of what he might get. Actually...no. A 3% difference(I went 7%/10%) is an incredible $2mil difference on $70mil. Only half his contract is made in Chicago/Milwaukee. You're both wrong. Illinois has a flat 4.95% state income tax. It's the same rate regardless of income level. I believe Wisconsin's top rate is 7.65%. Now the leading Democrat is running on instituting a progressive income tax if he's elected governor and if that happens you can bet the brackets will start at the current rate and go upward for higher incomes. We here in Illinois get soaked on sales taxes and property taxes but as far as keeping more of his money, for now Darvish is better off a Cub.
  19. I do agree with you that it looks good on paper but I'm not sure it's set. If they find bargain deals in the next month, I think Stearns will make the move. You can never have too many options out there. Disagree. The pen has 6 virtual locks all on major league deals: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jeffress, Albers, and Logan, and the 7th spot is set for an arm that will go to ST competing for the 5th starter role. Jeffress ($1.75 mil), Logan ($1.85 mil), and Albers ($2.5 mil) have some money committed and not likely to miss making the roster. Knebel, Barnes and Hader are locks. They'll likely add a couple more veterans on minor league deals as ST insurance but I don't expect a "name" guy.
  20. I think the Brewer pen is set for the first half of the season. On paper, it's better than either the Cubs or the Cards. They could be in market for an additional reliever at the deadline though. Let's wait and see.
  21. Eh, I can't realistically see any better way to spend $5m than on a guy like Thames to platoon with one of the most injury-prone RHB's in all of a baseball. Morrison or Duda would probably cost close to $10m and get more years than Thames, who is still a pretty good value. I would probably put the over/under on Aguilar's OPS against rhp's at .770 or so, which is abysmal. .770 OPS isn't abysmal. It's above major league average which is around .750. By the way, Aguilar's OPS vs. RHP in 2017 was .002 less than Braun's: .806 to .808.
  22. IF the Brewers were to sign Darvish and still want Archer, I would have to think Santana and Davies would headline the package. I think you nailed it. Davies and either Woodruff or Burnes along with Santana. That's too much in my opinion but I'm guessing that's what it'll take.
  23. FanGraphs was underprojecting the Brewers win total all last season even as they were winning 86 games. They were projecting them to finish behind the Cardinals until about the last 10 days of the season.
  24. I don't think Forsythe is better than either of Perez or Sogard. Ryu could be an interesting target though. Drake has literally 0 value, he's probably going to get DFA'd for Albers when that move is made official. Ryu is tough to value at his cost and with his injury history. We can afford to take on an injury risk though, considering Burnes and Nelson will probably be ready to fill in after a couple months. Forsythe had a .351 OBP last year and wore out LHP (.290/.418/.452) despite batting just .224. I think he's more valuable than you think. He's also solid defensively. In a soft platoon with Sogard, that's not a bad option.
  25. While they might not "need" a 2B if they deal Kipnis, as part of their plan currently is to use Kipnis around the diamond. If they deal him, Hernan Perez has proven he's adept in that role and he's a RH bat, something they are particularly in need of.
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