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Everything posted by danzig6767
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7/7/08 - Rockies (Jimenez) at Brewers (McClung) 7:05pm CT
danzig6767 replied to sgtcluels's topic in Archived Game Threads
Does Branyan even have a single RBI that wasn't from a home run? -
7/7/08 - Rockies (Jimenez) at Brewers (McClung) 7:05pm CT
danzig6767 replied to sgtcluels's topic in Archived Game Threads
His strike zone is the size of a wallet -
Who gets bumped from the rotation, McClung or Bush? Stetter get sent down? My guess is McClung to the pen. Stetter is the only one i can see getting sent down, but that's a shame because i trust him more than Gagne or Mota.
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I'm no swing expert, but it seems there has to be something in his swing that causes Weeks to hit so many lazy flyballs. Far and away Weeks is the most frustrating player on this team for me. I've kept thinking the last two years that is only a matter of time before Rickie puts it together at the plate, but it just never happens. He's still barely hovering over the .200 BA and has a Craig Counsell like .360 SLG. When he first got called up, i thought at some point fairly soon in his career, Rickie would hit around 20-25 homers and be ripping doubles all over the park. Here we sit 1415 at bats into his career and he has a measly 62 doubles, very shocking to me for a guy with such bat speed and the wheels to take an extra base on long singles. Hell, fly swatter bat Kendall has more doubles than Weeks, that's incredible to me.
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If you are Doug Melvin: Sheets or Sabathia this offseason?
danzig6767 replied to bullox's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So what do you think they will get? Only the Yankee's and Sox could offer them more... maybe the Cubs. Do you think they will be getting over 24 million? Do think it will happen... No one would sign for that amount except those two teams.... What are you thinking baseball mind???? Sorry to sound a little arrogant there. I think Sheets will be taking advantage of his free agency, looking for his last big contract. He'll want $20M+, and he's sure to get offers on the open market for longer than 4 years. If we can get him for $100M over 5 years, with the 5th a team option, I'd be thrilled - I think that's the very low end. If Sheets is simply looking to take the best offer, he could get $130M+ over 6 years if he plays the market right. Key for the Brewers will be to try to get him before Sabathia (most big market team's option A) signs somewhere, like they did getting Suppan before Barry Zito signed. Sabathia could break the market: 7-8 years / $150M-$200M. Its been outrageous the last few free agency seasons, its not going to slow down. Every big market club will be in on Sabathia, I would think. I think the odds we sign either are very slim, but with that, i think you're going overboard in what these two will get in free agency. Given the terrible track record when teams have handed out 6-7 year massive contracts to pitchers, i think teams won't hand out what you've posted. Sheets 6yr/130 million? I'd bet a few hundred dollars that Ben won't get six guaranteed years. I could see him at most getting 5 years guaranteed, but maybe with an option that vests into another year based on how many innings he throws. Sabathia i see getting six years, i can't fathom any team giving him 8 guaranteed years. Like Sheets, maybe Sabathia gets a year or two tacked on to the six years, but CC will likely have to meet certain criteria before before they become guaranteed years. Unlike position players, both pitchers are one tear in their shoulder from being nearly worthless. Santana got six years from the Mets and that's what i see Sabathia getting. -
I'm not afraid at all. I do whatever I have to do to get it done. You don't think that privately, the Cardinals and the Cubs would absolutely have the fear of god in them with the Brewers trotting out Sheets and Sabathia every five days?? Unlike a lot of you here, I truly believe the Brewers are the best team in this division, and getting CC will further strengthen that. As far as the prospects they have to give up, who cares?? Worry about next year, next year. You try to win now, you never know when you will have this good of a chance again. You go all in. If the Indians call me right now and say "Doug, we've considered your offer and it's a tremendous offer, but we really need Escobar in the deal, and should you include him, we can have CC on a plane to Milwaukee tomorrow". I simply reply with "we have ourselves a deal". Thankfully, this post is one reason among many others that you're posting on a message board and aren't a major league GM. A smart GM when asked what prospects to give up, he won't say, who cares, whatever you want to get a deal done is fine with me, just get Sabathia on a plane to Milwaukee. You would though be a wet dream for any GM out there trying to sell off a vet at the trade deadline.
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Wow, how could i have forgot Sutton given he helped us get to our only World Series. Who did Sutcliffe get traded to?
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With it sure looking like Melvin will be a buyer before the trade deadline and very high end prospects names of ours being thrown out there in rumors, i was wondering if anyone here who didn't fry away their memory with to many bong hits in their youth can remember the success stories of teams trading quality prospects for a vet before the deadline? If i remember correctly, i think David Cone got traded to Toronto and really helped them the year the Blue Jays won it all. The Randy Johnson to Houston trade helped them in 1998. I was trying to think of others and assume there are, but i'm drawing a complete blank. I'm not trying to start a thread about we sure trade so and so for this guy, but more a thread for those with a memory about how often trade deadline deals helped bring on the results the trading team hoped for. Are the failure rates on these July trades generally much higher than success stories? Any that were debacles that you can remember?
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Man, to bad Gamel or Laporta didn't have these big years a year prior. I'd love to have pulled off the trade instead that the Rays did to get Garza for Young, vs a few months of Sabathia. Obviously though it' no lock that the Twins would have rather had Gamel or Laporta to Young, but it sure would be nice to have the rights to a young arm like Garza for multiple years instead of multiple months. With Young struggling, the Twins as of right now can't be happy with the results.
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A guaranteed return of two high end prospects? Jack Zduriencik has done a great job, but he's certainly has had his share of high round busts, the two extra picks are from from being guaranteed high end prospects. I'm not 100% against trading for Sabathia, but just looking at the history of trade deadline deals, it's far more rare than common that the team trading for the vet and giving up the prospects ends up getting what they hoped for out of the trade. Maybe the Brewers would buck that trend and Sabathia leads us to the playoffs. If history showed better results from these kind of trades for the trading team, i'd be less worried that we'd end up regretting this trade for a long time. Oh well, we shall see because it sure feels like we are going to trade for Sabathia. Maybe i just need to get the black cloud feelings out of the picture where i fear we make the trade, miss the playoffs by a game or two, and Laporta and/or Escobar becomes a stud for Cleveland.
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Yep, i'd be very bothered by that The thing is, even if Sabathia pitches well for us, it doesn't guarantee anything. The offense could have some off games or the pen blow leads like today. Each start that CC made where the Brewers didn't win the game is one wasted start in the loss of two high end prospects that we would have controlled for 6 years a piece. If we were getting Sabathia at the start of this season or doing a trade like Arizona did to acquire Haren who had multiple years on his deal, then i'd be much more inclined to give up two top prospects like Escobar and Laporta. Plus, this trade wouldn't account for fixing the back end of the bullpen that could go on blowing games that we'd gain from acquiring Sabathia. Unless of course Doug gutted the farm system by also getting Fuentes.
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Bullpen arms except for the elite ones are just so damn erratic. Hell, look at the Padres, Mike friggin Adams in 25 innings has a 2.45 ERA/1.05WHIP/.207BAA and a 30/8 K/BB ratio while we made what looked like a great signing in Riske and he's been terrible. I do think Melvin can be faulted for signing Mota/Gagne after how poor they pitched last year, but it's amazing how up and down bullpens often are from year to year for teams.
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The silver lining for me is that maybe Mota showing his true colors as of late will get Doug to get a late inning reliever. The guy still has nice stuff, but his command is shaky at best and it leads to costly walks and getting behind hitters to much. Mota after today will be sporting a 1.50ish WHIP, he simply allows to many base runners to be trusted late in close games like Ned does with Mota. Between the struggles of Riske and Mota, there isn't a single relief pitcher i trust much besides Torres in close games.Bullpen arms can be overpriced and fluctuate from year to year, but for contending teams, it's really hard to win a playoff berth in todays baseball without a reliable back end of the pen. Playoff berths are often decided by 1-3 games, bullpens can be the deciding factor between otherwise fairly equal teams. I feel for Ned at this moment . If we have say a 1-2 run lead entering the 7th and/or 8th innings, there isn't anybody in the bullpen that i'd have a high level of confidence in bringing in right now.
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Defensive shifts are beautiful when they work out and ugly when they don't. If Weeks is playing in normal position, the ball Ojeda hit is an easy DP and the Dbacks have a runner on third with two outs down 5-0. Weeks was playing up the middle though and instead it's an infield single, bases loaded nobody out. I understand why teams do the shifts and they make sense, but it's frustrating at times like today when they badly backfire. As for Mota, it's his walks that always get me nervous when he enters the game. He still has good stuff, but is constantly getting behind hitters. We've been burned so often gagging multiple run leads that i swear, i never feel safe regardless what the lead is. As soon as Arizona got the leadoff hitter on, instant nervousness set in.
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I don't buy at all that we don't get better for this season Roberts is a better player than Weeks right now and Guthrie is better than Dave Bush, pretty hard to see how anyone could say otherwise. Guthrie has a 3.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in the AL, plus he put up very similar numbers last year while Bush has back to back 5+ ERA numbers while not having to face a DH in the NL. Roberts has a .859 OPS and a .372 OBP, very similar to his .377 OBP last year. Weeks on the other hand is sporting a .689 OPS with terrible .325 OBP for a leadoff hitter and Roberts is a better defender on top of being a better hitter. Hell, Guthrie has a better ERA/WHIP/BAA than Sabathia this year. I'm not saying he's better than Sabathia, but i doubt you'd find a GM in the game who wouldn't find Guthrie and upgrade to Dave Bush and wouldn't prefer Roberts to Weeks in the short term if winning this year was the main priority.
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Pena/Gillespie/Periad/Wright for Stewart and Fuentes? No chance i'd accept that trade if i'm the Rockies. I really think you're doing a lot of wishful thinking in these trade proposals you throw out there, wanting us to get high quality without having to include any of our upper tier prospects. We aren't going to get a guy like Sabathia or both Fuentes AND Stewart for a combination of guys outside of our top 10 prospects.
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Maybe teams won't be willing to give a ton for a rental in most cases, but Sabathia is a true number one starter that won the CY Young last year and he's been flat out dominant the last two months. In May he averaged over 7 innings per start with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with two complete games. In June over five starts he averaged nearly 8 innings per start with a 1.89 ERA and a .95 WHIP. Unlike many players that get dealt at the deadline, Sabathia could lead a team in the playoffs to a title given the huge importance of starting pitching in 5 or 7 game series. This gives the Indians more leverage than your normal team trying to trade a much less important player for prospects, nearly every likely playoff team and legit playoff contender could end up at least seeing what Cleveland would want in return because they know how huge an ace can be in the playoffs. The more teams who call will drive up the ability of the Indians to increase what they ask for. I'd be shocked if all it took was Weeks and Gillespie to fetch Sabathia. The Indians very well could have lukewarm interest at best in Weeks given his health history, inconsistent play both offensively/defensively, and just overall pretty mediocre results from a guy in his 4th big league season, who also is entering his arby years. Gillespie is a solid prospect, but not one that teams would feel very confident that he'll become an everyday productive corner OF. If i was Cleveland, i'd demand at least one of our top 5 prospects to start a potential deal and then negotiate on who else the Brewers include. If Melvin said no, then i'd talk to other teams and i strongly believe a team or multiple teams would offer something more appealing than Weeks and Gillespie. No offense dude, but i see absolutely no way Cleveland says yes an Iribarren/Pena/Gillespie/Narron or Hammond type of trade, or that other teams won't offer better. That's a quantity over quality trade, there isn't a single top 100 prospect among those four or a guy with an extremely high ceiling. Plus, Iribarren projects a a utility player and those three pitchers are unlikely to be anything more than a 5th starter in the bigs and that's if any can even make it to the bigs. I'm very leery of trading a Laporta, Gamel, or Escobar along with adding another good piece or two for only 12ish starts from Sabathia, but i'm pretty damn sure that's hat it'll take and that you're wishful thinking in the proposals you threw out there.
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I may be in the minority, but i don't think i'd give up any of Laporta/Gamel/Escobar to get Sabathia for 10-12 starts. I'd rather see what other pitchers are available because six years of any of those three isn't worth a rental that might not even get us to the playoffs. It would be very painful to see us give up some great package for Sabathia, then miss the playoffs while say Laporta or Gamel becomes some big time stud for the Indians.
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Minnesota Twins: Luckiest team in baseball.
danzig6767 replied to TuesdaysWithRillo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If i remember correctly, the Twins had very good bullpens during that 5ish year stretch and while i have absolutely no stats to back this up, i'd assume that teams with good bullpens tend to fair better in those tight one run games than teams with shaky bullpens. Now i do know the Brewers have a good record in one run games this year while not having a great pen, but my assumption is based on an in general thing with good pens and 1 run winning. -
Minnesota Twins: Luckiest team in baseball.
danzig6767 replied to TuesdaysWithRillo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I can buy a team being somewhat lucky over a season, but when you average about 90 wins over five straight years, i'm not putting much stock into luck being a factor. -
Minnesota Twins: Luckiest team in baseball.
danzig6767 replied to TuesdaysWithRillo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
As a matter of fact I do. The AL Central was a weak division when they were winning it, and that is pretty much proven by them losing in the first round of the playoffs every year to better competition. That said, the AL Central is very good this year and was last year, and the Twins won't and haven't been in the playoffs either year. See a pattern? The Twins have done a nice job building a team and have some good players, but they've gotten a lot of breaks in the process. Come on. The Twins have managed to put together very competitive teams the last 7-8 years along with some playoff berths and they did so with a lower tier payroll, outperforming quite a few teams with larger and in some cases, much larger payrolls. Some may not like the style of ball they've played generally over those years, but considering the payroll limitations, the results have been impressive on a win per dollar spent ratio. It sure would have been nice to see the Brewers win near as many games as the Twins have over those years. -
Time to start looking at Melvin?
danzig6767 replied to bklynbrewcrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
One aspect you didn't factor in was money. Not only have Hart/Fielder/Prince been very productive, they are dirt cheap. Hardy and Weeks have been inconsistent, but they haven't been bad and Melvin has been able to fill those positions with two more dirt cheap players. All these young players who make pocket change allows Melvin to spend money elsewhere, few if any GM's have that luxury. -
I'm not trying to be an ass here, but isn't that just stating the obvious? My only point was that there was a positive in that Seth was behind so many hitters and still was able to avoid excessive amounts of walks or hard hit balls. Considering his past in Tampa where he'd get destroyed when his command was bad, it shows some improvement as a pitcher. No question though that if he falls behind so much in future starts, he'll be playing with fire and likely get burned by it.

