danzig6767

I know it's very early and bullpens as a general rule are volatile, but if Henderson can eventually get back to who he was last year and Thornburg can keep command of that nasty changeup, this Brewers pen could be really good, teamed with a quality rotation. I initially wasn't a fan of keeping Duke on the roster, but if he can keep getting lefties out, the team can allow Will Smith to pitch full innings. Kintzler looks great so far and while i'm sure K-Rod will have his share of frustrating outings over the season, i give the guy credit. He lost velocity from his days with the Angels, but he's re-invented himself via that great changeup he now has, which he can throw at any time in the count. I still worry about home runs every time he throws that 90mph fastball, but hitters often are late on it because they are hinking about his change.

I agree with you in that i wouldn't under any circumstances shop Segura iaround n the offseason, regardless if he still balks at signing an extension simply because i wouldn't want that getting back to him/his agent when the odds are slim any deal would actually end up being completed. That said, like i mentioned in my previous post, only a select few players in pro sports should be off limits completely. So if i'm Melvin and a team calls me about Segura, i'd at least listen to the offer, but it would take a lot to say yes and i also wouldn't be going around calling a bunch of other teams because in today's media world, odds are pretty high that shopping would get leaked. That wouldn't be good.

Maybe it's as simple as us disagreeing, but as I laid out in the OP, the "now" timing would be to sell as high as possible & capitalize on the prized service time. Naturally it downgrades the positional side of the MLB club in the short term, but as is probably evident from other posts, I wouldn't manage the MLB roster/organization in the same way that Melvin & Co. do. If you're netting an elite-talent-tier SP under team control for 5+ seasons, the team could be even a bit better than it is today. How many times in say the last 10 years or longer has a high upside player been traded for prospects after only two big league seasons, assuming Segura has another fine year this season and especially at the important shortstop position? Hey, Melvin/Attanasio do things at times i'm certainly no fan off either, but if hypothetically the team can't work out an extension with Segura after the season and they also make no attempts to shop him, that wouldn't exactly be some sort of short term thinking which was fairly exclusive to how the Brewers front office operates given at least off the top of my head, i can't recall any trades like that happening in baseball with a quality second year player. My memory sometimes can be lacking though and maybe you have some examples that could be pointed out. If so, i'd love to hear the details. FWIW, i'm of the belief that except in rare instances like a non-really old true franchise QB in football, a true star in the NBA, and i guess Mike Trout in baseball, pretty much nobody else in pro sports should be considered completely off limits to being traded. The devil is then in the details. Player X for exactly what in return. Obviously though certain athletes for a variety of reasons would require a much higher return to even bother staying on the phone and listening to what another team would give up.

That's very true, odds are decent that when Cabrera eventually hits his declining years, Ilitch won't even be alive. Regardless of that, i still don't understand why teams continue given out these 8-10 year long mega contracts, especially to players already over the age of 30. For a young guy like Trout, sure it would make some sense, but not a guy in his 30's who doesn't look like he stays in the best of shape. I thought the Pujols mega contract and quick decline, along with Arod's long deal would scare owners away from doing the same, yet Seattle gave Cano 10 years, Votto will be making 25 million per in ages 35-40. and now Cabrera. It's crazy to me even if baseball is swimming in money. Prominent agents in baseball having to be loving this. Lots of MLB teams with huge revenue streams and dying to spend it, regardless of the risks they are taking.

Plus, the odds are slim that the rotation stays healthy. Pitchers in baseball have to go on the DL all of the time. It's only a matter of when a spot in the rotation opens up this season. That said, it will be interesting to see if Estrada can ever manage to stay healthy and have results closer to his secondary numbers. He limits baserunners well and gets plenty of strikeouts, but home runs kill him and maybe he'll never be able to avoid that from plaguing him.

Who here doesn't blame Melvin and/or Attanasio for hiring Seid, who then hired his scouting staff? I've yet to see anyone here blame someone else and for myself at least, i've said multiple times that it very well could end up being the biggest mistake of Doug's tenure, assuming he made that call instead of the owner. Those people pulling the trigger on draft picks each year are arguably the most underrated people in all of baseball. Last time i checked, Carlos is still on the team, is in his prime, and signed to an extension that Fangraphs called arguably the best big league signing at that time. If he performs anywhere near how he did last season, Gomez will be one of the bigger bargains in baseball outside of kids still in pre-arby years. The problem there is teams think they are going to draft well, it's why the spend all of the effort, time, and money evaluating hundreds of kids each year. Then it often takes varying degrees of time for kids playing in the minors before knowing if a draft ended up doing well or poorly. It's not like teams conduct a draft and a day after it's over, they say well this batch of players is going to suck. Look at the Cardinals and just how many quality players on their big league roster were drafted from say the 3rd round through the 25th. After some times in the minors, a number of those players developed better than expected. Not so much for Seid's picks and it's hurt badly. If things don't get much better and quickly, sticking with Seid could prove to be a bigger mistake than first hiring him. Oh well, it's probably pointless to keep debating this stuff. You seem to believe that anyone here who doesn't constantly bash nearly anything Attanasiio and Melvin do in running the team as you do, that then those posters agree with almost everything they do, when that is far from the case. For example, plenty of people who don't dislike Attanasiio and Melvin as much as you were against the Suppan and Wolf signings. Weren't fans of multiple other decisions. Have wanted the team to be more invested in international signings. Cringe a bit reading the Attanasio interview where it shows just how heavily involved he is in major free agent moves, instead of leaving that to his general manager. It is what it is though. Attanasio has clearly shown and stated out loud in interviews that he has no intention of trading off a guy like say Gomez for prospects as i'm sure you'd want to do. It's simply not in his DNA to sell off productive players for prospects unless his hand is forced by a guy like Greinke making it clear he won't stay. If the farm system isn't producing talent, he's going to sign free agents because in his heart he will almost always think win now first unless things look so bleak he has no choice but to concede that a season is going nowhere. So i'm just going to watch the upcoming season and hope the team does well, regardless if i have issues with some of the decisions made by the team given i don't get to tell Attanasio what to do. If my memory is correct, you stated once that you couldn't enjoy the 2011 season at all when the Brewers won 95 games and were only 2 games from the World Series simply because you hated how that team was put together. I just can't think that way and to be honest, hope i never do because that was the most fun i had as a Brewers fan since i was a little kid watching the team in the early 80's and trying to bat like Robin Yount in little league.

I don't agree that the Brewers have set about with a plan to draft mostly low ceiling guys as you say. They've drafted their share of say hard throwing high school arms and high school position players, those kids simply have rarely panned out. It's not like they've only just drafted college kids with high picks. In the end, it hasn't mattered whether they drafted high school arms or college pitchers, very few have panned out over a long period of time. Plus, just look at how many good players and pitchers on teams like the Cardinals and Rays weren't high picks. Besides Miller and Wacha, Kelly in the 3rd round. Rosenthal 21st round. Garcia was a 22nd round pick. Lynn came from their farm system. Bullpen cogs last year like Siegrist 41st round and Maness 11th round. Matt Carpenter was a 13th round pick. Allen Craig 8th round. Matt Adams 23rd round. Wong was the 22nd pick in the 2011 draft we took two crappy pitchers. The Rays last year in their rotation had Matt Moore who was an 8th round pick. Cobb 4th round. Hellickson 4th round. All of those success's weren't because of some grand philosophy differences by the Rays and Cardinals come draft day, just simply better scouting. The Cardinals weren't trading proven players for prospects either. Instead, they've traded prospects for veterans. Because they draft so much better though, they've been able to avoid having to sign pitchers in free agency. Tampa is a different situation. Their fan base sucks, so they have no choice but to have a low payroll. The Tampa owner is lucky though to have hired the best GM in baseball, who also hired a great amateur scouting staff. This has allowed the team to win 90 plus games a year on a small payroll. Trying to replicate that though would be very difficult without hiring the whole Tampa front office because it's no so much their philosophy which has lead to 90 plus wins a year on the cheap, it's their brain power or else almost everyone in baseball would do the same thing. Pittsburgh is finally seeing the fruits of picking high in the draft year after year after year, more so than some extra great plan. At some point they eventually had to start seeing the benefits of top 5-10 picks in each round. We see all of the time in various pro sports where 1-2 teams have a lot of success doing things a certain way, so others try to emulate it, but fail mainly because they find out it wasn't the philosophy as much which made those other teams so successful, it instead was the smarts of guys pulling the trigger on numerous decisions. Friedman IMO is the most valuable and underpaid commodity in all of baseball. Beane not far behind. Both should be making 10 million per at least. We've seen multiple of Beane's underlings over the years get GM gigs of their own and end up faring much worse because understanding Beane's basic belief systems is a lot different than being able to also successfully pull them off to win games as he has.

There really is no point waiting for some panacea of a time where all teams in baseball largely are working under equal financial footing as happens in football for the most part. It's just never going to happen. That said, at least MLB has made changes over the years which has given non-major markets a better chance to compete than the past, so long as those teams make good decisions. Hell, the Brewers made the playoffs twice in the last 5 years and were two games from the World Series in 2011. Last year, the Reds, Pirates, Indians, Rays, and A's all made the playoffs, while big market teams like the Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Angels, Phillies, Giants, etc all watched from home. Sure, some really good young to 30ish year old players are still leaving small to mid market teams for huge money on rich teams, but a decent amount are also staying now. It's no longer a near lock that those type of players will be gone. Plus, we are only seeing the beginning of a number of these monster long term deals blowing up in the faces of teams who made them. It's going to keep happening as each year goes by and these teams who handed out 7-10 year huge deals for already veteran position players and big 5-6 year deals/extensions for starting pitchers start finding themselves with guys owed say 15-25 million per over multiple seasons that no longer are close to being the stud they signed. Some teams could end up with 2-3 of these albatross type of contracts on their books. Look at the Angels for example with Pujols and Hamilton, both still owed over 300 million combined and looking in major decline. Fielder walking could end up being a blessing in disguise if last year wasn't an aberration. Things are far from perfect financially for small to mid market teams, but no longer dire as used to be the case.

Simply draft better and the vast majority of your complaints go out the window. Outside of Ramirez, pretty much all of the free agent signings/trades you complain so much about have gone to starting pitching because the team has failed so miserably to draft/develop pitching for decades now. Like i said earlier, look at the Cardinals great pitching staff, it's almost entirely from their farm system and like the Brewers, St Louis hasn't been drafting in the top 5. If Melvin and/or Attanasio could just grab cheap high quality pitching prospects from the minors as the Cardinals are doing and as have the Rays for years now, i'm sure they'd much rather do that than pay free agents 10 plus million per. I'm mean come on, do you really think they've rather pay Wolf, Lohse, or Garza 10 plus million per or instead simply grab a Matt Moore, Wacha, or Miller from the minors? If you should be really upset with any one thing in particular above all else, it should be hiring Seid. His inability to draft better pitching and also Zduriencik is by far the biggest reason that the Brewers have continually had to find pitching via trades and free agency, unlike the Cardinals, Rays, and so many other teams who have drafted better. By just simple odds, when you think of how many pitchers the Brewers have drafted over a long period of time, it's pretty amazing how few quality pitchers the Brewers farm system has produced, that includes even just bullpen arms. Throwing darts while blindfolded at available pitchers in those many drafts likely would have produced better results. One interesting thing about the Pirates success last year is that a number of people questioned them acquiring veteran guys like Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and Liriano, yet all three were very important in their surprising season. Now they also have a quality farm system to turn to going forward, but that really should be the case given they've been picking in the top 5-10 of each round forever. It's crazy how many high picks they've blown in the past. For as much as Zduriencik did to turn around our system, it has to be remembered that Weeks, Fielder, and Braun were top 5-10 picks. They also are refraining from making other moves not only because of some set philosophy, they also have a notoriously cheap owner who enjoys filling his bank accounts with healthy profits.

The Cardinals didn't trade proven vets to get prospects and that's why they have such a talented roster and farm system, they've simply drafted better. In fact, they've made some youth for veterans trades instead, one of which helped them win a ring in 2011. Most Cardinal fans were irate over that Corey Rasmus trade when it first went down. Look up and down their current roster though, especially the pitching staff, it's just a bunch of guys who they've drafted everywhere from the first round through later rounds. On the flip side, the Brewers whiffed on way to many picks, especially early round pitchers. So i don't know if there is so much of a big philosophy difference between the two teams as much as the Cardinals have a better amateur scouting department and director than the Brewers do because for the vast majority of teams, it's the amateur scouting departments who are going across the country scouting countless kids, not GM's and owners. They are also the ones mainly pulling the trigger come draft time in 50 round drafts because they are the people who have actually seen all of these kids play. Maybe Melvin and/or Attanasio have some input when it comes to who gets taken in the first round of drafts, but i question how much they interfere even on first round picks. After that though, i really doubt that they are telling Seid who to pick from that point on and that goes for most general managers in baseball who simply don't have the time to scout say 500-600 kids for each draft. While Seiid was drafting Jungmann, Bradley, Arnett, and other nobodies early on, the Cardinals landed Miller and Wacha. Kelly in the 3rd round. Rosenthal 21st round. Garcia was a 22nd round pick. Lynn came from their farm system. Bullpen cogs last year like Siegrist 41st round and Maness 11th round. Matt Carpenter was a 13th round pick. Allen Craig 8th round. Matt Adams 23rd round. Wong was the 22nd pick in the 2011 draft we took two crappy pitchers. Their amateur scouting departing has simply been much better at hitting on talent, not so much some fabulous philosophy instead on team building. We could have drafted many of those players St. Louis took. As for Tampa, they are the best run team in baseball and Friedman arguably the best GM , not easy to replicate that. So even if the Brewers tried to copy what Tampa has done, the results wouldn't be likely to be anywhere near as good given their whole overall scouting staff and front office wouldn't be here. It's their bright minds making the moves. That said, Matt Moore was an 6th round pick. Cobb 4th round. Hellickson 4th round. That's just in their current rotation.

While teams like the Cardinals and Rays are better run overall than the Brewers, don't forget to keep in mind at least one very basic difference why, both have simply drafted much better than the Brewers, especially since Seid took over. A big reason why the Cardinals have not only been able to avoid having to sign free agents pitchers or trade for pitchers as the Brewers have is evidenced by their roster and farm system. Nearly all of their very good stable of pitchers have been drafted by them and not with top 5-10 picks either. The Rays have also drafted pitching so much better. I'm sure Melvin would much rather just call up a Garcia, Miller, Kelly, Rosenthal, Lynn, Martinez, Wacha, Siegrist, etc etc from the minor league system and plug those guys in vs having to mostly acquire pitching from elsewhere because the amateur scouting department has been so poor at drafting and then developing pitching. Same for Tampa. Granted, it was Doug who hired Seid to replace Zduriencik, so he shares in the blame, but the failure by Seid to hit more with his draft picks and especially the high picks is a pretty big reason why the team hasn't been able to just grab high quality pitching from the minors as say the Cardinals have. I've said it before, but Melvin hiring Seid after Zduriencik left could easily end up being the biggest mistake of his tenure as GM.

That interview just confirmed what i've long thought, that Attanasio was the main driver of signing Loshe. It also jives with other interviews after Garza was signed and he mentioned Fangraghs multiple times, that Attanasio pays pretty close attention now to the analytics side of baseball which is good to hear.

I think there is about a near zero percent chance of that happening. I've heard Melvin mention multiple times about not wanting to see the same brutal defense at firstbase as we saw last year, that's why i think it's close to a lock that Overbay makes the roster unless he just looks flat out done at the plate in spring. That said, i do think Ramirez is the biggest key on the team this year. He has to play 140 games at least and be really productive for the Brewers to have any realistic chance to be a playoff contender this year because their is nobody to replace him. As for a prediction. I'd guess around 84-78, but it's so hard to know given the offense could easily range from being top 5 in runs scored in the NL to bottom 5 depending on a myriad of different factors.

He sure looks impressive and i love that he throws strikes. BTW, how did the Pirates acquire Wang because it doesn't show anything on baseball reference?

I genuinely believe that Sveum not being a member of the coaching staff has had an impact on Rickie more than most. I think Narron has done well especially with the development of Gomez, but I wish Sveum would've been brought back after his firing in Chicago. If my memory is correct, it was Sveum who before leaving decided to stop trying to make Gomez into a ground ball hitting and patient guy who could bat at the top of the order, and instead told Carlos to go ahead and just swing hard more like a power hitter. Because of his great speed, for so long each team Gomez was on tried turning him into a leadoff hitter type who hit the ball on the ground a lot and took a bunch more walks, but that just wasn't in his DNA as a hitter. Once he was allowed though to swing hard and use his power instead, Carlos has become a much more productive hitter. The guy not only isn't a really patient take a bunch of walks type of batter, he's built more like an NFL safety than a Juan Pierre slap hitting typical leadoff hitter.

For me, his velocity drop is troubling, but it's also frustrating that seven years into his big league career, Yovani still hasn't been able to improve his command enough to both consistently pitch deeper into games and walk fewer batters. Look at a guy like Lohse. One reason he was able to become a better pitcher from his younger days is he simply throws more strikes. Less free passes meant fewer baserunners on to potentially end up scoring runs. Pitchers can still be very effective in the velocity range Gallardo now looks to be in, but command becomes more important. Getting ahead in the count and not walking a lot of hitters gets more important for any pitchers who see their strikeout rates decline.

It also may be a sign of the extra revenues that the team is bringing in. That they can afford to both spend 90-100 million on the big league roster and still have money left to invest on international signings like this. I'd love to know the overall team revenue numbers. Attanasio certainly isn't cheap, but i do think he's done well from buying the team.

The offense doesn't have to get 2012 production from Ramirez, but i do think they need at least around an .800 OPS and about 140-145 games. I fear him getting a significant injury much more than i fear that his production this year will decline very noticeably.

It's a sign of just how much money baseball as a whole is swimming in. That Votto contract could really blow up in their faces down the road, but in the case of a guy like Bailey, 17 million per today in buying power isn't like 17 million per only just 4-5 years ago. I'm not implying there is no risk in this signing, but baseball fans need to keep in mind the new financial structure of today when evaluating any signings. All of this money is going to raise the paydays for everyone from bullpen guys, just decent starters, to upside hitters or pitchers like Bailey.

Thanks for the props but who else is there at this point? Give up a pitcher for Ike Davis? Give up a pick for Morales? Give the reigns to Morris? Also, I'm far from one of those K-rates are pointless people but I don't see how posting his K-rate is at all relative to his offensive production. This is his OPS (HR) by season: 2007 - .843 (17) 2008 - .779 (28) 2009 - .892 (44) 2010 - .753 (32) 2011 - .806 (37) 2012 - .763 (23) 2013 - .699 (21) Last year notwithstanding, he's a guaranteed .750 OPS with 20+ homeruns. Not a world beater for first base but at least that's serviceable, maybe even above average. Yea, as much as seeing Reynolds or a Reynolds platoon with whoever is far from ideal, look at the numbers of other rumored guys we'd have to trade for. Smoak-- He was the 11th pick when he came out, but in four seasons he has a meager career .700 OPS. Seattle does play in a big park, but his road career OPS is only .733, so it's not like he kills it outside of Safeco. Moreland-- He's been better than Smoak with a career .758 OPS over the same four seasons. That said, Texas likely would want quality talent in return because keeping Moreland allows them to switch him and Fielder between 1st/DH duties. I'd assume they would have reservations about going into the season with Prince having to play everyday at firstbase in that Texas heat. Davis-- He started out pretty well, but not great over his first three years. That said, he's a brutal Yuni like out machine vs lefty pitchers and his power also mostly vanishes. So the Mets want a quality pitching prospect for him and any team who acquired him would be foolish to not platoon a guy they just traded a pitching prospect for. Of the three, i like Moreland the most, but he's the least likely to be traded. Smoak really only has name recognition over being a high draft pick and Davis can only be started vs righthanded pitchers unless someone enjoys watching him flail away helplessly vs lefthanded pitchers. The one area they would be a clear improvement though is defensively, but not to where i'd give up Nelson or Thornburg. Morales would cost a first round pick, so that's an immediate no go for me. What else is realistically out there?

Mark Reynolds strikes out about once in every three at bats, just like Francisco does. They are pretty similar hitters exact for batting from the opposite sides. Reynolds has a better walk rate over his career, but Fransisco walks at a decent rate himself.

Really risky signing. I'd hate giving big money to any starter who has consistently walked a lot of batters as Jimenez has his whole career.

An article about him http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2014/2/11/francisco-rodriguez-bucking-the-old-reliever-trend-with-age.html

He only pitched 20 innings for Baltimore. It only takes a few bad outings in that limited number of innings for an ERA to go up. I'm not exactly thrilled by the signing, but when looking at his overall numbers from last year, the main positive for me was that he was able to strikeout 54 batters in 46 innings, while only issuing 14 walks. I'd be much more concerned if his K numbers were declining than a 4.50 ERA over a small sample of only 20 innings. He's generally allowed baserunners since his velocity dropped from his Angels days to low 90's, so if he stopped being able to get strikeouts, getting out of innings would become a struggle.

That's pretty much where i'm at While 3 million seems maybe a bit pricey, if K-Rod had gotten 2 million instead of 3, would it really matter much in the grand scheme of things for the payroll this year? Plus, his K/BB ratio was really good last year, so if he pitches well and the team struggles, by being only owed around 1.5 million at the deadline, maybe he could be flipped again for a prospect. My only real beef with the money is i'd probably rather spend that on some young Latin free agents and hope to hit big, thus adding to our pretty bleak farm system. Then again, in today's exploding salary structure, 3 million dollars is practically nothing