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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Dunno, Washburn has put up a 4.36 ERA over his last 700ish IP. Suppan has put up a 4.72 ERA over his last 700ish IP. He also put up a combined 3.95 his 3 years before we signed him and it was obvious from the peripherals that it wasn't for real. Bush has put up a 4.86 Davis a 4.41 ERA. Yeah they are upgrades but they sure are small ones. Washburn is the best of the bunch considering he did it in the AL. Davis wants a 3 year deal and just isn't worth it. I'd rather bring back a Looper for 1 year and sign one of those Bedard types, starting Parra in AAA as depth for when they get hurt. Seems to make more sense than making another Suppan style mistake by signing a mediocre aging SP who has peripherals that suggest his ERA isn't for real.
  2. Ennder
    Suppan - 4.16, 3.57, 4.12 ERA the 3 years before joining Brewers. Looper - 3.56, 4.94, 4.16 ERA the 3 years before joining Brewers Bush - 4.41, 5.12, 4.18 ERA the 3 years before this season Davis - 4.25, 4.32, 4.12 ERA the past 3 years Washburn - 4.32, 4.69, 3.78 ERA the past 3 years I don't really see how these guys are any different than the guys you think stink and need replacing. Trying to judge a pitcher by ERA is going to be futile most of the time. Doug Davis walks way too many guys to sustain his success long term. Washburn doesn't K enough guys and his a flyball pitcher so he isn't likely to show great success unless he has a great defense behind him and pitches in a pitchers park. These guys aren't really anything more than marginal upgrades over what we have, maybe 1 win each tops.
  3. Ennder
    As long as the Cardinals and Red Sox lose I'm a happy camper. I can live with any of the other teams.
  4. Ennder
    I think signing Davis would be as bad as the Suppan deal. Both are guys with mediocre peripherals who displayed a decent 3 year average in ERA and are getting old. It won't surprise me one bit if Davis has an ERA up around 5 next season. Washburn is a step above both but not crazy about him either.
  5. Ennder
    It is based on a ratio of outs vs attempts so this wouldn't hold true.
  6. Ennder
    I predict we sign him, we return a lot of the same pitchers, they all do better. Then he gets the accolades even though it really was just the pitchers regressing to their 3 year averages.
  7. Ennder
    You are significantly underrating Hardy's trade value here. I personally think we should get a AA or AAA pitcher for him though, instead of going for an established guy.
  8. Ennder
    Hitting WAR seems to be pretty good, pitching WAR is pretty flawed though. Would be interesting if they broke the two aspects apart and looked at the correlation of each separately somehow.
  9. Ennder
    It isn't about pitching being the problem, it is about what Melvin will do about it. He could easily bring back the same rotation and expect the ERA to drop almost a full run given how they pitched and the injuries etc. A lot of people in other threads have suggested they think that is what he'll end up doing. I like any plan that puts Parra back in AAA to become part of our 'depth' personally. I'm against any plan that suggests releasing Bush given his price. What they do with Looper I could care less about, if they can afford a replacement great, if not he is about as good as most of the crappy FA we are likely to get.
  10. Ennder
    Injured pitchers tend to pitch poorly, happens to every team.
  11. Ennder
    I'm not saying Narveson stinks or would be worse than Bush/Looper/Suppan btw. I'm just saying that we need to have guys like him in AAA because at some point we will need the depth. I'd much rather fill out the rotation with 5 more established guys and have Narveson and maybe even Parra in AAA to fill in the holes for injuries etc. Looper will sign for some team for as much as we gave him this year, pitching is that thin and GMs realize that one year of high HR doesn't really tell the story with him and I should hope they can spot how flawed pitching WAR is if they have a stats guy at all.
  12. Ennder
    Suppan has been below replacement level for 2 years running. Pitcher WAR comes up with a lot of flawed results IMO, I don't like VORP or WAR because they consistently list guys who have above replacement level ERA year after year as being below replacement level. When a stat jumps around a lot it can just be hard to use but when it consistently gives what I consider flawed results I just can't use it. I mean I find it hard to buy that Suppan was below replacement level but Wellemeyer wasn't since Wellemeyer was even worse than Suppan by peripherals and much worse by ERA. I'm guessing it is because the entire system is built off of FIP which is flawed in the first place.
  13. Ennder
    We simply disagree on how good of a pitcher Dave Bush is and Looper for that matter. They are hardly super stars and I'd prefer to bring in a real #2/#3 type of guy but Dave Bush is not going to be why we make or miss the playoffs next year. His salary is about equal to his talent. Sorry if I can't be so results oriented to judge these guys on under 200 IP, they have proven to be adequate pitchers if unspectacular over a much longer period of time. Our rotation underproduced compared their talent level, happens to teams every season and next season they'll likely revert to normal just like pitchers do every single season. In 2008 a rotation of Vazquez, Milwood, Zito, Duke and Verlander would have been considered terrible. In 2009 they would have won the division, you can't judge a pitcher by a single season. However what we can't do is go into the season with no backup plan like we did this year, when Bush and Suppan went down the team was sunk because the backups were so terrible and that played a big part in the decision to bring Parra back up and to let Bush try to pitch through his injury.
  14. Ennder
    If we go into 2010 with Narveson in the rotation then Melvin will really have failed. He isn't really any better than Suppan and Looper and he is capable of starting the season in AAA giving us depth which is something we sorely need. If we can flesh out the rotation and start the season with Narveson, Parra and maybe even one more guy we get via trade in AAA it would make me feel much better about 2010. Even if that means Suppan, Looper, Bush, Gallardo and some scrub are the rotation.
  15. Ennder
    Fair enough, I also didn't realize how much Well's defense has slipped. I can stomach his hitting a lot more if his defense hadn't become so bad. The combination of the two makes him about replacement level now for that salary. Suppan is still slightly above replacement level at least.
  16. Ennder
    Can't say I love Macha but if this is the worst move Melvin ever makes as a GM from this point on he will be the best GM in baseball from this point on. It really isn't a big deal. I'd still gladly keep Macha another year if the alternative was Yost as an example.
  17. Ennder
    I think Wells is a better player than Suppan and I think there was good reason to expect Wells to improve given his age etc, while there was good reason to expect Suppan to decline given his peripherals and age. They are probably pretty close.
  18. Ennder
    One more thing to add to the anti Ricciardi bandwagon is that he has been very dishonest about things like injuries. Now every GM hides a little information since other teams can use it but he has outright lied about things. I'm not sure the Wells contract is any worse than the Suppan one though. The Rios deal certainly wasn't worse.
  19. Ennder
    I wasn't trying to say predictions are useless. DJ said he had a feeling the team would have a lot of injuries and the lack of depth would cost us and that is exactly what happened, but at the same time this team had one of the best health indexes going into the season so a gut feeling that happened to hold true isn't always a sign of a great prediction. I mean I can feel my AK is going to beat 22 in hold em but the reality is it is still a losing play more times than not. JJ Hardy said we would be under .500 if Gallardo failed to pitch the full season but then Gallardo pitched most of the season and we still were under .500. Klements Bratwurst had the most compelling post but again I think the rotation problems were more from injury and a bit of bad luck than just straight up terrible pitching. I think the 2009 Brewers underperformed their talent level and had more than expected injuries, so yeah someone who said 82-83 wins wasn't being optimistic, they just couldn't know that the season would go as bad as it did. People need to stop being so darn result oriented in general, someone who predicted the Mets to be over .500 didn't make a terrible prediction, someone who predicted the Giants to be under .500 didn't make a horrible prediction. Every year teams play way over or under their talent level because of poor play or injuries. If you really wanted to judge 2009 you would have to look at how the same players did in 2010 and 2011 because it takes 3 years or so to get a good look at the true talent level of any player.
  20. Ennder
    If you had told me Hardy would be useless all year, Weeks was going to miss most of the season, Bush and Suppan would miss a big chunk of the season. Riske and DiFelice would miss huge chunks of the season, McClung would get hurt, Hart would get hurt for a big chunk of the year I'd have predicted around .500 too. The team had way more adversity than could be expected. I mean Bush might as well have missed 2/3rds of the season since he never came back effectively after the injury. Last year I predicted the Brewers would win 90 and they did but I didn't really like my prediction at the end of the season. Sabathia did much better than I would have expected Gallardo to do and really 'saved' my prediction. I feel like I overvalued the talent on the team even though my end number was correct. Last year very little went wrong with the team either. Point is looking back at a thread like this isn't the most useful thing in the world because predictions are made with so little information. People weren't too optimistic, the team got hit by way more adversity than can be expected.
  21. Ennder
    You really can't tell anything from one season. Texas improved because they brought up all their young guys, it easily could have nothing to do with Maddux. The Brewers mostly have the same exact peripherals as always so I doubt there was as significant a change as the ERA suggests. When you judge pitchers by ERA they are not going to be consistent year to year.
  22. Ennder
    Lopez can also play LF so if we do trade Hart and/or we don't bring back Cameron he can easily find AB out there. I wouldn't mind moving Braun to RF. If we go into next season depending on Weeks to be healthy, Escobar to be ready for a full season and McGehee to be productive and healthy (his knee is obviously a concern) then I think we will be getting ourselves in trouble. We need a lot of depth on the IF because we have a lot of ifs.
  23. Ennder
    Strike outs are a bad result, hitters can easily make up for the bad results in BB rate and HR. Strike outs for a pitcher are a good result, pitchers can easily be bad with a good K rate because they give up too many BB and too many FB (which lead to HR). Pretty sure his point is even if they are a good pitcher with a low K rate we already have enough of those types and in theory at least a more balanced staff would probably be better. So they aren't just seeing the same basic pitcher every day.
  24. Ennder
    Whatever we do I hope we don't go after some guy like Marquis. If you want to call a guy the next Suppan I'd say Marquis fits the bill much better than Pineiro.
  25. Ennder
    This is the same pitching coach that pushed for the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir trade that was so terrible. As for Dave Duncan as manager, there is not even a small indication that he is capable of handling that position. I'd love to hire Duncan as our pitching coach but I'd consider it a horrible move to take him on as our manager at this point.
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