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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    It is also how much someone would be worth over a single season. If Pujols signed a 1 year deal how much do you think it would be for, something silly like $32M probably right? When you start talking multi year deals you have to assume players production will split and that there is a lot of risk of them getting hurt etc and the average salary per year goes down and down.
  2. Ennder
    I don't think baseball usually work this way. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox have to pay more to get a player because the players know they will overbid to sign them. The Patriots get players at a discount because of endorsements etc, I don't think the Red Sox really do.
  3. Ennder
    But they do, they point out things like why Dunn was overvalued before this years contract (GMs put a lot more value on defense this year so he didn't get as much as expected), they also point out why some players are way undervalued (like Cameron). The fact that most teams are now using advanced sabermetrics when deciding on player signings has just changed the overall outlook of things. 20 years ago the average fan's opinion of which players were valuable and which weren't was horrible, even most GMs were pretty bad at it. Now most of them have a clue. All a stat like WAR is doing is weighting defense vs offense vs position. That more or less sums up the entire process. Sure you can do the same thing by just discussing all 3 areas separately but I think it is pretty obvious that it is important to include all 3 in every discussion of a positional player. While we might not always agree on how much to value each of the 3 I think WAR is an ok starting point to most discussions.
  4. Ennder
    The entire purpose of a stat like WAR is to have an unbiased system of judging talent. It does the job fine as long as you understand the various flaws of small sample sizes. If every disucssion about baseball was just I think this vs you think that then we would never get anywhere. WAR at least is a method to add a little validity to the subject. But again you have to use your brain here, nobody is going to argue the value of Kapler based on such a small sample, if you are going to talk how good a player is we need at least 3 full seasons of data. Nobody is saying the system is 100% flawless, but with a large chunk of data it points to a relatively solid player value. Much better than just saying I like this guy he must be worth $10M a year or this guy stikes out a lot he can't be worth $10M.
  5. Ennder
    Looper was more or less the exact same pitcher he has always been, he just had more balls go over the fence this year so his ERA jumped. If he really were significantly different(like if he was leaving them up in the zone more etc) he'd have more flyballs in general but his rates were exactly like normal. Just a few more went over this year. This kind of thing happens all the time and 90% of the time it just corrects itself the next season. His xFIP pretty much tells the story. 2009 - 4.90 2008 - 4.59 2007 - 4.93 2006 - 4.33 2005 - 4.85 Back in 2004 he was a better pitcher because he induced a lot more groundballs but from 2005 on he has been somewhere between a 4.50 and 5.00 ERA true talent pitcher. With STL since they had a pitchers park and good defense his ERA was bit lower and obviously the years as a RP tend to have lower ERA as well. As for WAR, I think it is pretty much useless for evaluating talent of pitching, especially for a single season. On the positional side of things I like it a bit more but the defensive metrics need more than a single season of data as well. I'd certainly rather compare players using WAR than just using fan perception though. It is very plausible that an extremely good defensive CF who is a mediocre hitter could be more valuable than Braun, fans tend to overrate SLG and underrate defense in general. I'm not sure I buy that Morgan is that good defensively though.
  6. Ennder
    Cameron and Kapler are very different examples though. Cameron has many full seasons of data, the problem with Kapler is the sample sizes are so small that they aren't that useful
  7. Ennder
    Yankees haven't won a world series since 2000 and haven't played in one since 2003 so you guys are exaggerating just how much of an advantage they have. Yeah they need to do something with the top few teams but it isn't anywhere near as bad as you are making it out to be. The same teams make the playoffs in the NFL and NBA pretty much every season as well. The bottom few teams rotate out but the strongest teams are pretty much always the same.
  8. Ennder
    The Twins have a very mediocre rotation with Liriano not producing like he should and with Slowey hurt. They just value defense over offense and play in a weak hitting division. I relaly am not jealous of Nick Blackburn or Glen Perkins types at all. Those are the future Looper/Suppan's of the world and Scott Baker is more or less a clone of Dave Bush only without the injury inflated ERA. I'm excited for both seasons personally. Rebuilding is a long and arduous process and we are still in the earlier stages of it. 7 years ago this team had no talent at all on the field, it was Sheets, Jenkins and a bunch of bums who would be out of baseball in a couple of years. We have rebuilt that into a team that is consistently around .500 and has a lot of talent in the minors and I'm just excited about where we are headed in general.
  9. Ennder
    This really isn't accurate though, if you think some teams don't have significant advantages in the NBA or NFL you are looking at those sports with rose colored glasses. This is a discussion that never goes anywhere useful though.
  10. Ennder
    Everyone dislikes different things. I'd rather not watch baseball than listen to Hawk Harrelson as an example. He just is so unpleasant to listen to. Buck and McCarver are just boring to me. They don't make a game unbearable, they just don't add anything to it.
  11. Ennder
    In basketball sure, in football this really isn't the case at all. If anything football is the most random come playoff time.
  12. Ennder
    I love the playoffs but haven't watched that many games this year because I've just been busy. I think it is funny that people don't want to watch because the same teams are in it every year(btw only 3 of the 8 teams in it this year made the playoffs last year). Guess they don't watch the NBA or NFL playoffs either since it is basically the same teams every year too.
  13. Ennder
    Oh I agree, $8-10M is probably the range for him, maybe a tiny bit higher since the CF market is so dead but that just depends on which teams are willing to spend on CF.
  14. Ennder
    Cameron is better than Abreu so I would think he should get more money than him.
  15. Ennder
    We'd like have pretty close to a league average rotation if we just brought the same guys back, at least until someone got hurt and we again had nobody to replace them. Shooting for league average isn't really what we should do of course but the rotation is nowhere near as bad as last years results.
  16. Ennder
    I'd be fine with letting Cameron go if I thought there was a good viable option in the FA pool but I'm really not sure there is. I think if we let him go we'll just have a black hole in CF and having a mediocre defensive, no hit type like Gwynn isn't really the answer either. If you are going to downgrade the offense at CF you probably need to at least match the defense as well or the overall hit is just too big.
  17. Ennder
    http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in Thought people might find this article interesting. Shows that Kendall was overall the 105th most valuable C in baseball last year. Granted it would be more useful if they assigned value vs playtime in which case he wouldn't look quite as bad. Still his defense actually ranked as a negative and I can't really buy that his game calling is helping the pitchers. Rivera came out positive in overall defense.
  18. Ennder
    I do not believe that free agent pitching will significantly improve this team. I would rather they bring back the same starting 5 than spend large sums of money on FA pitching. Now I'd rather they took on a high risk, high reward type guy more than anything and trade for some AAA depth that lets us fill in for said player if he he gets hurt. Take a chance on a Sheets or a Bedard.
  19. Ennder
    Dave Bush taking a no hitter into the 8th against the Phillies.
  20. Ennder
    I find the Angels to be an exceptionally boring team but I think they are a good one.
  21. Ennder
    This is how incredibly clueless people view Arod and I find it funny how dumb they look this season.
  22. Ennder
    Given the wrist injury I'd think that this is something they will decide on during spring training.
  23. Ennder
    The only reason Brantley would be an option in 2010 is because Cain got hurt in 2009. Brantley was the 2nd best CF we had in the minors.
  24. Ennder
    Bengie Molina is not elite defensively at this point. He is most likely just average. He only threw out 21.3% of baserunners this year. He is an average catcher at best, which would be an upgrade over Kendall of course.
  25. Ennder
    A - Fielder, Braun, Cameron, Gallardo, Hoffman B - Counsell, Lopez, McGehee, Coffey C - DiFelice, Stetter, Smith D - Hardy, Hart, Bush, Villanueva, Suppan, Looper, McClung F - Kendall, Hall, Parra, Burns Rest of the guys probably didn't play enough to matter or were hurt like Weeks. Grading system is simple, A is a player every team in baseball would have wanted. B is an above average guy who doesnt' make the A list. C is an average guy. D is a below average guy who I felt was above replacement(Bush getting an exception because of injury) and F is a guy I think would have hurt most teams on the season.
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