Ennder
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Everything posted by Ennder
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Kendall's hitting came out at -15.8 runs this season. Going with someone else is most likely at least a win. He was also below average defensively and I find it hard to believe his 'handling of the staff' has been helpful since almost every pitcher has gotten worse since he joined the team.
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Fielder will probably finish 3rd or 4th which is about where he should be. Ramirez and Utley should both finish over him.
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Lopez has a career UZR/150 of -11 at SS. That is pretty darn terrible. His fielding in the OF looks terrible too though the samples are pretty small and I doubt he ever got used to playing out there. He really is a 2B/3B more than a pure utility guy. -
I think Gamel is better defensively than people give him credit for and I personally think he sticks at 3B.
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Does anyone else think we just pocket the money we are saving?
Ennder replied to kilgore37's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It would absolutely shock me if the Cardinals didn't see major regression from the rotation. They basically got the perfect world results from their rotation last year. -
You are just way underrating the variance of ERA. It wouldn't surprise me even a tiny bit for Looper to show up with like a 4.58 ERA next year. It wouldn't surprise me to see it at a 5.00 either. His peripherals are in the same range they have been for the past 4 seasons so not sure how it can be considered significantly worse. Suppan I'd consider more of a 4.75-5.25 ERA guy at this point. Moyer is a classic example of this type of thing. Look at his ERA trend over the past 7 years. 3.27 5.21 4.28 4.30 5.01 3.71 4.94 Even early in his career it jumped around like that. When you have guys who don't strike out a lot of people and who aren't extreme groundball types their ERA isn't really going to tell you much about their talent level. It just jumps around way too much.
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Does anyone else think we just pocket the money we are saving?
Ennder replied to kilgore37's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't think the Brewers can really build a 90 win team unless they get a lot of luck with young players. They have to hope to build an 85 win team and have it make the playoffs some seasons. -
I completely misread what you posted, I thought you were saying they included minor league players and I had personally forgotten that Gillespie was traded. I'm sure he just pulled the info from some database that wasn't updated.
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They give projections for any player who has even a small chance of making the majors usually.
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Does anyone else think we just pocket the money we are saving?
Ennder replied to kilgore37's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There is no reason the Brewers can't make the playoffs in the next 2 seasons. The Cubs are in complete disarray and the Cardinals overproduced last season. I wouldn't project them to make the playoffs but all it takes is a couple pitchers having good season to turn them into a playoff team. -
Still a good offense overall. Lets just hope we sign some guys before they do pitcher projections~.
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Other than getting hit by a pitch and not pitching well afterwards Bush hasn't done anything to suggest he shouldn't be in the rotation next year. If we are going to move someone to the pen I'd rather it were Suppan by far. Another option to make room for another pitcher is to start Parra in AAA until he proves he is throwing strikes.
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Doumit's health and poor defense make him less valuable than Hardy imo. I'd take him as our starting C for the hitting but he really isn't that great of a player when you look at the entire package. His contract is not some big bargain.
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The better pitcher, but not by the extreme amount that he has had is the point. Jackson will not be likely to sustain 76% for his career unless he becomes a much better pitcher over the next few seasons. It is a percentage so the better pitcher puts fewer on and lets fewer score, has a tighter range of ERA in general. The worse pitcher puts more on, lets more score and has more randomness in his ERA. It isn't like Jackson is elite in peripherals or anything though, he has a rate you'd expect from the top pitchers in baseball over the past 2 years and before that his rate was terrible. The truth is somewhere in between I'm sure.
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I'm ok with Arroyo but just be ready for some terrible starts mixed in. He is that type of guy who seems to just get hammered 4 or 5 times a year where he can't do anything. I know because he's had those periods each of the past 2 years and I've picked him up off waivers on my fantasy team when his owner gave up on him, heh.
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It just doesn't work like that. LOB% will scale somewhat with how good of a pitcher you are but not all that much. It also will scale with how good your bullpen is. Even a stud like Halladay can't keep it that high on a regular basis. Santana has managed to and that is about it.
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Probably because Jackson has been very luck with runners on so far in his career and the 'safe' money is on him not being able to keep it up. Each of the last 2 seasons he has over a 76% LOB which is extremely high for a starter with only the very best starters in baseball able to keep it that high on a regular basis. Jackson's xFIP in 2008 was 5.16.
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I'll personally be surprised if Jackson has an ERA under 4 next year, lot of luck in that ERA. He is still an ok target but if we are trading at sub 4 ERA price I think we are spending too much.
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Howard didnt' really take off until his age 24 season, in fact up until age 23 I'd say Gamel has a slight lead in overall minor league stats.
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Loopers K/9 was higher than in 2007, his BB/9 was right around the same as in 2007 and was better than 2005, 2003, 2001, 2000. It isn't like this was some big jump. His FB% was right in line with the previous 2 seasons as well. His K/9 was better than in 2007 or 2005 so that isn't out of line. The only number that jumps out in his stats at all is HR/FB%, that is pretty much 100% of what caused his ERA to be abnormal. Now he was also one of those 'lucky ERA for multiple year' guys so we should have known his ERA was not the proper expectation, same with say signing Doug Davis or Jeff Suppan. If you know how to judge pitchers you don't make these mistakes as often.
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It isn't pretending anything, when everything else stays pretty much 100% the same and HR/FB jumps it is just an outlier. Kind of like Hoffman when everyone said he was 'done' after 2008. A HR spike is something that happens to every pitcher in baseball at some point. If you agree that something like BABIP is luck/variance I don't see how you can argue HR/FB isn't, they are the same exact theory.
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Loopers xFIP was more or less exactly the same as the 5 previous seasons, his peripherals didn't change just randomness in ERA did. His 5 year run of xFIP is now... 4.85 4.33 4.93 4.59 4.90 He is a 4.50-5.00 ERA type so no big loss, but to say that last year he was somehow much worse than previous years just isn't true. As for Doug Davis, he isn't a very good pitcher. He is basically Suppan right before we signed him, same basic peripherals(more K, more BB of course but same composite ERA). His xFIP pattern is 4.91, 4.72, 4.46, 4.78 the past 4 years. Davis has had a lot of luck stranding runners which might just be random, might be that he is one of the rare players who have a skill for it. Riske was one of those rare types too and that didn't work out so well, usually it is just luck or playing on teams with good RP. If we are signing Davis for significantly more than we would have given Looper it isn't helping the team at all. He is probably a little better but not by much. Using ERA to talk about how good or bad a pitcher is, is about the same as using RBI or AVG for hitters. A good defense, good bullpen, pitchers park, easier division etc is going to have a huge effect on ERA. It is a team stat, not an individual one.
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Not like the trade had to be just Hardy for Jackson, they could have built on it.
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Edwin Jackson is on the trading block, that is someone I'd probably have preferred to Gomez. Not that I'm all that high on Jackson but he is at least decent.
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I edited my post but I meant fielding WAR, Jeter was actually the 3rd best defensive SS in the AL statistically this season. Both of the SS who were better didn't play quite full time and are young which makes it harder to win.
