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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Baseballprospectus hit ratings came out today. These are purely math based ratings that look at the statistical side of the game to come up with power rankings. Cardinals came it at 8, Cubs at 11, Brewers at 12, Reds 15, Pirates 19 and Astros 22. The Brewers were up in the top 7 just two weeks ago but have fallen quite a bit. Rockies climbed up to 14 with the back to back sweeps, White Sox are at 26 so hopefully we can beat up on them some.
  2. Ennder
    I'd be shocked if the Astros or Pirates reach .500, neither team is very good. More shocked by the Pirates than the Astros though. Any of the other 4 could realistically take 1st with a well placed hot streak though I'm a little less of a believer in the Reds than the others because I think their pitching is going to collapse and they don't have an offense that can survive that.
  3. Ennder
    It doesn't include Weeks. Counsell has a .615 OPS as a leadoff hitter this year, all of his damage was done batting 2nd. I was surprised too because I had the same logic in my head as what you suggested CheezWizHed. Hart has 6 games of .464 OPS leadoff. That number also includes any pinch hits for the lead off hitter etc as well.
  4. Ennder
    Brewer Leadoff hitters are hitting .254/.315/.402/.718 on the year which is pretty dreadful once you subtract out what Weeks did.
  5. Ennder
    Hart needs to be in the bottom of the order if he is going to keep swinging at the first 2 pitches every AB or even put on the bench. He is never going to succeed if he slips back into those bad habits.
  6. Ennder
    Losing Weeks hurt the offense but it is nowhere near responsible for the poor showing lately. McGehee and Counsell have combined for as high an OBP as Weeks had, just less power. Our 2B on the year have a line of .282/.348/.472/.820. Weeks had a line of .272/.340/.517/.857. If you subtract Weeks out of that first number there isn't a big difference, higher OBP, lower SLG. Hart, Cameron, Hardy and Hall all slumping at the same time has pretty much killed the offense.
  7. Ennder
    So Rivera's bad swings become really painful.
  8. Ennder
    Rivera swinging at ball 4 and ball 5 there, ugly.
  9. Ennder
    This series just makes that game against Atlanta and the one against Florida more painful because Macha made some very questionable moves with the bullpen that led directly to the losing runs scoring. Can't just blame him 100% but if we win those 2 games this cold streak really doesn't look that bad, add those 2 losses to the generally mediocre play this month and it looks really ugly.
  10. Ennder
    Braun has an .646 OPS with 2 outs and RISP on the season and an .542 late and close and an .791 in high leverage situations so you aren't imagining things. These are all so small for sample size that it really doesn't mean anything though, over a 10 year career they almost always just even out.
  11. Ennder
    That sums things up right there. Guy swings at a bad pitch way outside, barely gets the bat on it and it finds a hole. Brewers line balls into the OF and it is right at guys.
  12. Ennder
    Something is out of whack then because baseballreference says .389 in 20 PA. Regardless I wouldn' ttrust a 29 PA sample over a career one. http://www.baseball-refer...01&year=2009&t=p
  13. Ennder
    Lefties are hitting .346 against Embree this season.Lefties are hitting .389 off him this year... in 20 PA. You are going to trust a 20 PA sample over a career one?
  14. Ennder
    Starting to really dislike what I've seen out of Macha this past week. Hall has proven he can't hit RHP, Counsell has proven he can't hit LHP, those are splits that are real and matter. Stop going with goofy small sample size splits instead.
  15. Ennder
    If Macha doesn't PH for Counsell here I'll scream.
  16. Ennder
    Hall is the worst hitter on the team vs RHP, just not someone I want up with 2 runners on with a team that can't score runs right now. Just one situation where I'd rather have had anyone else than Hall, doesn't matter who. I might even prefer Gallardo to him.
  17. Ennder
    But they don't even out, they take at least 1000 plate appearances to even out which is why AVG and BABIP do not stabalize until 1000 PA. It is like trying to judge a pitcher by ERA over a single season, the stat itself is flawed when it comes to judging a player. We have a history of production built for JJ and we have some stats that stabalize over smaller than a full season and those stats for him are right around his career norms. The only stat that is really out of line for him is the one that tends to fluctuate wildly year to year. That is why you call it lucky even though it is really just natural variation I guess. If you just take 'box score' stats at face value over a 2 month period you aren't going to learn anything about the player.
  18. Ennder
    http://blogs.jsonline.com...s-fielder-and-braun.aspx Batting 8th is hard on a lot of players because they get pitched differently with the pitcher behind them. They did a study on when certain stats become meaningful and AVG did not meet the criteria until you had 1000 PA worth of data. HR/FB took 300 PA and things like GB%, contact rate etc took 150. All of his small sample size friendly stats are where you would expect them or better than last year except for HR which are 3 shy of expected rate but Hardy has always hit his HR in bunches so that doesn't worry me too much. His poor start is almost completely BABIP driven.
  19. Ennder
    Fielder and Braun last year when they were swapped comes to mind. If you are going to judge a player on a 2 month sample of play you have to luck neutralize it to be realistic in any way and Hardy is pretty much being unlucky this year and that is it. There is absolutely no reason to sit him right now, he is hitting a lot of balls right on the button that are going for outs. Sure he strikes out too but he always has, his K rate isn't abnormal at all compared to his norm.
  20. Ennder
    Hardy is making solid contact right at people and has a good approach at the plate. His slump is almost completely based on BABIP, his K% is steady from last year, his BB% is actually higher. His ISO is lower but not extremely so, the big difference is a .245 BABIP and since with my own eyes I have seen at least 6 balls he hit hard that players made great plays on I give him a break for it. Hart and Hall are just up there hacking at everything and swinging through most of it. Hardy was really good last year and didn't have the big fade at the end of the year. Hall has been terrible for over 2 full seasons now and Hart's struggles started last season as well so there is more of a sample.
  21. Ennder
    I'd blame it more on half the team being cold than on Weeks getting hurt, the 2B has been one of the more productive positions.
  22. Ennder
    I don't know if I agree with that. Last year the only month he had with over an .800 OPS was April. At this point in his career I think last years .823 OPS is probably about what you are looking at out of him and he is sitting at an .795 right now.
  23. Ennder
    Yeah I'm not asking for a strict platoon either, just more days off for Hart to see if maybe there is a solution on the bench. I'd sit Hart against heavy slider starters and start him against heavy curve ball pitchers since he kills the curve ball but can't hit a slider to save his life.
  24. Ennder
    "I can´t stand Theriot, or his 5 HR. I don´t even know how he´s managed to put so many over the fence this year" He hit another one Sunday so it is 6 now. I agree with you though, I'm shocked that he has that many.
  25. Ennder
    Fukudome seems to always kill the Brewers. Aramis as well. Soriano tends to either win (HR) or lose (bad defense) a lot of games we have against the Cubs. He's given us quite a few runs over the past couple seasons with his shoddy defense.
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