Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

Ennder

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,251

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Well you probably should use xFIP and then correct for career difference between xFIP and ERA because it isn't a perfect model in any way. The bullpen doing such a good job probably helps our ERA a bit. Suppan has an xFIP of 5.40 and an ERA of 5.09. His ERA has historically beaten his xFIP by a little bit so that is probably what we should expect. Bush has an xFIP of 4.79 and an ERA of 4.38. He has had some luck with strand rate and given up even more HR than you'd expect which probably offset each other. Good news with Bush is his peripherals are better than last years which had a lot of luck in the final ERA. Looper has an xFIP of 4.74 and an ERA of 4.24. He has the same thing as Bush going, more HR than you'd expect, better LOB%. Gallardo has an xFIP of 3.87 and an ERA of 3.18 and again the story is a good LOB%. Parra has an xFIP of 4.84 and an ERA of 6.75. His story is a terrible LOB%, 62.4%. That lends a little validation to the idea that he is struggling out of the stretch. The odd thing is his OPS against with RISP is still better than without.
  2. Ennder
    Dillards MLE FIP is 5.28 which is higher than Parra's FIP on the year, so there are no guarantees that he'd be better. I think you send down Parra because you think it helps Parra, not because you think Dillard is the 'answer'.
  3. Ennder
    I know people don't want to hear this so I'll back you up with some examples from this season. Andy Sonnastine Jon Lester Fausto Carmona Francisco Liriano Gavin Floyd All of these guys are young pitchers who have had a good ERA for a full season at some point in their career and are sitting over 5.50 on the season. I don't mind if they send Parra down to work on things but this isn't some huge abnormal thing to have a young pitcher go through a rough stretch. Happens to multiple guys every season. I don't think we need to go into the I told you so's again btw(unless you want to talk about Garlands 5.75 ERA since the person this is directed at wanted to sign him), a lot of people gave those after Suppan's bad start and look foolish now. Takes a lot bigger sample than this to judge a player.
  4. Ennder
    Ok if you want pure rookies than Rasmus and pretty much nobody else, I was taking it more in the spirit of best young players.
  5. Ennder
    I'd be fine with sending him down if they think Dillard is major league ready but I don't think today was really the reason to send him down. He got sabotaged a bit by Kendalls poor defense early(sorry but neither wild pitch really should have been a WP). He mostly threw strikes and quite a number of those hits were seeing eye singles. If he had been solid all year this game would have meant very little in the big picture but since he has massively struggled to throw strikes all year this start stands out and rightfully so. I guess I don't mind if they give him another start and I don't mind if they option him and start someone else. I am very ambivalent to the entire matter.
  6. Ennder
    I think Rasmus and Bruce are the 2 best prospects in the Central. None of the Cubbies prospects seem that impressive. Votto is by far the best prospect in the central imo, he is one of the highest upside players in the division. Cueto is the highest upside pitcher along with Wandy Rodriguez if you still call him a prospect.
  7. Ennder
    I'm not sure I blame him for using Julio, he has to use him eventually and we seem to always be in close games. I blame the person who decided to keep Julio on the roster though because he shouldn't be on it. The guy has proven that he can't pitch.
  8. Ennder
    Gerut is a better hitter than Duffy. To be honest I think Duffy looked more lost than Nelson up there, he swung at tons of junk off the plate.
  9. Ennder
    Hardy has an .888 OPS since May 1st so I think he already turned it around. I do think that 1 run games come down to the bullpen a lot so not surprised we have done well in them since our bullpen has been so strong.
  10. Ennder
    Because ERA is a bad stat over a single season sample. Young pitchers improve year to year but it usually isn't by huge leaps and bounds like people think, the underlying peripherals usually show slow growth the ERA just jumps all over because well it isn't a very useful stat without a large sample. Volquez pitched like a 4 ERA pitcher most of last year, Cueto was over a 4 ERA. Volquez had an xFIP of 4.02 last year and got steadily worse as the season went on, he has an xFIP of 4.80 this year. I don't think many projected Parra to beat his xFIP from last year which was 4.03 so not sure where this big growth for Parra idea comes from. Cueto had an xFIP of 4.62 last year and has a 4.44 so far this year. He has shown some growth but the 2.53 ERA is almost completely a product of his 83.9% strand rate and .231 BABIP against. It just isn't supported by his peripherals at all. Parra had an xFIP of 4.03 last year and has a 4.93 so far this year with that terrible spike in BB/G mostly to blame. The nice thing about Parra is the high GB%. If he can get those walks back down he really does have the perfect skillset, LHP with high GB% and good K/9. He can even live with a BB/G over 3.5 and be somewhat successful but over 5 is going to cause problems.
  11. Ennder
    I said this in spring training during the 30 teams in 30 days discussions but the Reds rotation is overrated and the Brewers rotation was being underrated. I don't think one of them is better than the other. Gallardo is better than any pitcher they have, Volquez's first half last season was heavily luck influenced and his second half looks just like his 2009 so far, good but not great. Cueto is still inconsistent but is probably the best pitcher on the Reds but his ERA so far this year is a mirage built on LOB%. Harang is not likely to revert to his 2005-2007 self, he is over 30 now and has a lot of innings on his arm and he has started to lose velocity. Arroyo is well Arroyo, solid most starts but always has a few complete blowups to sabotage his stat line and Micah Owings is only a marginal major league starter unless he can find a 3rd effective pitch. It won't surprise me if the Reds don't have a starter with an ERA under 4 over the rest of the season. Cueto will probably end up in the 3s just because of the hot start.
  12. Ennder
    Is it really? They haven't really changed in any way over what they did the rest of their careers so how can you say this? There is probably a difference but it is so small you certainly can't notice it in the stat line anywhere.
  13. Ennder
    I find it absurd to believe that Kendall actually has a large effect on our rotation. Suppan has pitched just like he always has since Kendall became a Brewer, Bush hasn't changed at all and if anything he got better when Rivera became his C. Parra has struggled this season and hasn't lived up to expectations from his minor league numbers. Looper is the same guy he was the past couple years. There is absolutely no evidence that he is having a large effect on our bottom line. He probably helps somewhat but it is something so minor that there is no way his current offense is being offset by it.
  14. Ennder
    I think we need more time to really know how much of it is a slump and how much of it is another year of age. He certainly is not a good hitter no matter what but if he hits like last year overall his defense can still bring some value. If he slips much more he really shouldn't be starting again next year.
  15. Ennder
    I don't have a huge issue with him saying that though I disagree with it. They are hitting a very tough spot in their schedule right now and it won't surprise me to see them 4 or 5 games back after the next 10 games or so. They are probably overproducing to this point, I think they are a mid 80 wins talented team but with Votto, Encarnacion and Volquez all injured I'm surprised they aren't sitting closer to .500.
  16. Ennder
    Looks like Brewdude15 and Invader3K won this month though I was pretty close with only 4 more wins than I expected!
  17. Ennder
    He doesn't even make my top 3 mishandling of players currently on the roster. Fielder sat at the major league level barely playing for half of his first year, he came up in June and got all of 62 PA spread over 39 games played. Hardy should have never started in the majors his rookie year and they left him there struggling forever before he finally got things going. Weeks should have been benched as soon as they knew his thumb was messed up because trying to compensate for an injury probably ruined his swing the next season. Gamel has started 7 of the last 9 games including todays start, that is hardly anything to be worried about.
  18. Ennder
    Gerut isn't really a drop in production from Hart vs RHP, they are pretty even. I think a trade only makes sense if it includes Parra as well and it returns an elite pitcher. Not sure that is really realistic. If we trade for someone like Penny and he replaces Parra in the rotation I won't be happy as I don't think that is really an upgrade. Now replacing Suppan wouldn't bother me but I just don't see it happening.
  19. Ennder
    Macha is handling Gamel like many other managers handle young prospects. The same way LaPorta was handled, the same way Fowler has been. I haven't had a problem with it so far as long as Gamel starts half time or more it is fine. As for Hart, the Boston Globe today reported that the Red Sox and Giants have been scouting him because the Brewers would be willing to trade him for pitching. Not sure if that is true or not since Boston tends to think every other team is there to supply their team with players.
  20. Ennder
    This is only a 4 run game, bases loaded should be a pinch hit situation here. He gets out here, they get a couple bloop hits in the 9th and suddenly we are wasting Hoffman.
  21. Ennder
    Hall should not be the regular starter at any position, he is not a full time quality player. He can get an occassional spot start against RHP but needs to most sit vs them.
  22. Ennder
    I would think that Fielder, Braun and Hardy are all better hitters than Gamel right now. Cameron and Hart could certainly be in the mix as well. Gamel could just as easily be our 6th best hitter as our 3rd best. He is better than Hall though and that is the only one that really matters.
  23. Ennder
    I did read a study that showed the second year with a catcher tends to see an improvement over the first season, so that certainly suggests that the catcher matters. I also saw one study that found that umpires call strikes different for young pitchers to the tune of over .5 runs per game which is why it always seems like Parra and Gallardo can't get a strike called on the corners. I think the catcher defense probably matters more than his game calling though.
  24. Ennder
    Catcher ERA is a lot like clutch, it might exist but over the sample that is all of major league baseball it really is negligible for the most part. You have a few players who fall out of the normal range but the number of players who do are small enough that it could easily just be statistical noise and not anything significant.
  25. Ennder
    Sorry to bring up an old thread but just had to pipe in and say that Garland is now sitting at an 5.75 ERA on the year, this is basically a Jeff Suppan quality pitcher who had a lucky ERA one year in Chicago. I'm so glad that we signed Looper for less instead of going after him.
×
×
  • Create New...