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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Their defense is about the same probably, Melky is a better hitter. At age 25 Gwynn has a .248/.300/298 line in the majors and a .273/.345/.342 in the minors including 3 years in AAA where he has gotten worse each year. At age 23 Cabrera has a .268/.329/.374 line in the majors and a .296/.347/.420 in the minors where he was young at every stop. He also has overa .400 OBP in his time spent in AAA. Gwynn is probably a AA player, Melky is at least a AAAA.
  2. Ennder
    I most certainly did not. My projection for Kendall from the projection thread was Kendall .265 / .334 / .340 His actual stats were .246/.327/.324 which is pretty darn close to my expectations. What I said is that his stats were so miserable in oakland and his secondary stats so far away from normal that they probably wouldn't repeat and that is exactly what happened. As for Estrada, how on earth was I to know he'd get hurt again and play through it. He was right in line with my expectations until the injury and then he fell apart and was miserable trying to play through it. Estrada got hurt in mid July when his OPS was sitting in the mid .700's and his legs bothered him the rest of the year and he posted an OPS of like .600 the rest of the way. I also threw out the first half of Hardy's rookie year because I don't think it means anything which is why my projection was more optimistic than most and was pretty much right in line what he did. The biggest flaw with projection systems is that they don't have the ability to put anything in context(that is sort of what PECOTA attempts to do), they just regress everything and hope it works out more often than not. I do my own projections every season for fantasy baseball, I take a look at baseball forecaster, pecota, zips and chone and then I bump the numbers for some players based on context and generally speaking the way I bump a player is right more often than not unless there is some injury etc the next year.
  3. Ennder
    I would think after last year those guys wouldn't even bring Linebrink again~ Thatcher was terrible, Garrison had a pretty mediocre season as a 21 year old in AA and Inman had 71 BBs in just 135.1 IP in his 2nd trip to AA.
  4. Ennder
    If you are going to stick to that argument then yearly stats are completely useless as you are dismissing part of his overall body of work which was the previous years. A single season is every bit as arbitrary as a single season minus 3 starts. Projection systems do exactly what I'm doing with Suppan, they regress back towards the mean and assume that a big jump in any given stat was probably a fluke of some type. I see no reason to expect a 5+ ERA out of Suppan next season as suggested above. If I see two pitchers with a 3.50 ERA and one was steady all year long and the other one had a 3.00 ERA except for one start against say the Cubs where he gave up 12 ER I feel it is pretty safe to assume the 2nd starter is better. Those are exactly the types of guys I look for in my fantasy baseball leagues, the ones who had 1 or 2 miserable starts that likely are better than their overall stats would suggest and they pretty much always perform better the next year.
  5. Ennder
    You absolutely have to put starts into context to ever understand where a player is. Suppan in his last 3 starts was nothing like Suppan the rest of his career so I think it is safe to assume something was wrong. Now it may be that the 'something' is just natural age progression and it is going to repeat next year, but personally I don't think that is so, that is more of a judgement call. I personally think his injury was messing things up at that point. His last 3 starts were 10.2 IP, 21 hits, 4 HR, 1.280 OPS against. In my mind that was more likely to be a physical issue than anything else. It wasn't just 1 bad start messing with his stats either, it was 3 completely abyssmal starts.
  6. Ennder
    We really have very little to do with what the Cubs do in the offseason so why worry about it? You are overrating their rotation even if they get Peavy btw, if they replace Dempster of 2008 with Peavy they'll like not be any better than in 2008 unless Harden is healthy the full season.
  7. Ennder
    A win is worth about 4.8M after inflation for 2009. So if it is 2 wins we just barely lose the deal, if it is 2.5 wins we lose by a pretty significant amount. The other players are going to matter quite a bit.
  8. Ennder
    To be fair his deal was 4 years $42M which is $10.5M a year even if it was backloaded so it is bigger the next 2 years. I'm not sure I buy into the fact his projection should be seriously worse than what he put up in 2007 if he is healthy as his ERA/FIP were high mostly because of 1 bad start in CHI, 1 start he left with an injury and a few starts at the end of the year where he obviously wasn't healthy either physically or mentally(even as hittable as he is, he has never been THAT hittable before). To me the question of what to expect next year is going to come down to health, if he is healthy I expect a 4.25-4.75 type ERA . If he isn't healthy then it depends on how many times they trot him out there and try to pitch through it. So far Suppan has put up just about what I expected out of him when he signed for the Brewers. Mid to high 4 ERA and 190+ IP a year.
  9. Ennder
    This just based on personal opinion or is there something else backing it up? I fail to see how Melky's career does not make him a starting CF on some team and the majority of teams probably think of Kennedy as at least a 4th/5th starter. A 6th SP is a 5.50+ ERA type of guy.
  10. Ennder
    Probably around 2, maybe 2.5 if Cabrera is more like 2008 than his previous years. That is not worth $9M but the deal wouldnt' e Cameron for Cabrera either. A straight up deal between the two would be pretty terrible, the 'pitcher' mentioned would have to be a major part of the deal. Cabrera is a throw in to give the Brewers a viable CF for the short term.
  11. Ennder
    Not anyone with a clue was saying this~ Suppan got a backloaded contract with a no trade during the early years. His contract was pretty much built to make sure he had no trade value.
  12. Ennder
    That really isn't true, he is an above average defensive CF and his career numbers suggest somewhere near league average offense at CF. He is certainly a step down from Cameron but he is not a 5th OF. Cabrera isn't the center piece of any deal though, he is a guy thrown in to give the Brewers a viable CF to replace Cameron. Not sure why people are keying in on him so much.
  13. Ennder
    I definitely agree 2008 was fluky for him, he was a better pitcher in 2007 than 2008 but our terrible defense and random variation made the ERA look much worse.
  14. Ennder
    His career ERA is 4.45 so at age 28 he'll probably be around there again.
  15. Ennder
    Another name I wouldn't mind seeing is Willits. I don't know how he is in the field but I find it hard to believe a player with a .390 career minor league OBP and .379 major league OBP hasn't had more of a chance to play. Even if we kept Cameron he'd be a nice 4th OF.
  16. Ennder
    He is looking for 5 years, $70M apparently. The $14M a year is fine but I wouldn't be too happy about the 5 years for a pitcher of his age.
  17. Ennder
    A win is worth roughly $4.8M in FA dollars so that doesnt' make up the 2.5 wins. It is certainly part of the equation though as that money will likely go towards another pitcher. Cameron is worth somewhere around $9.5M-$14M dollars in the open market depending on how much you want to regress him for age and what you think of his defense. That is between 2 and 3 wins.
  18. Ennder
    Well the first thing you have to do is assign a value to Cabrera. He is considered an above average defensive CF so I don't think we are losing a ton of value defensively from Cameron to Cabrera. Maybe half a win tops. He hit .268/.329/.374/.698 in 1438 major league ABs through his age 23 season. He hit .296/.347/.420/.767 in 1489 minor league ABs and was young for his level at each stop. If I had to project his future I'd think he is going to be a .700-.750 OPS above average defensive CF which to me is roughly league average production. Last year the average CF hit .268/.334/.420/.753 last year. Going from Cameron to a league average CF is losing around 2.5 wins so we need to gain back 2.5 wins somewhere else in the deal to stay even in 2009. So what that says to me is the pitcher needs to be an important part of the deal and not just a throw in. Betemit probably doesnt' really have any value, he is just a guy. He plays below average defense and only gives average production. He does fit a need on our team but that isn't enough to give him much value.
  19. Ennder
    I find it very hard to believe that allt he Brewer players got worse because we didn't have Jenkins in the lineup... which is pretty much the only change from 2007 to 2008. Cameron had pretty much nothing to do with the offense struggling last year.
  20. Ennder
    Lilly has never came close to a 3.00 ERA. Zambrano hasn't been under a 3.80 in the past 2 years, is showing signs of the abuse he received at a young age.. Look up Peavy's road numbers and tell me he is a lock for under a 3.50 ERA in Wrigley. The names are scarier than the reality is most likely. The scariest pitcher by far in that list is Harden, if he stays healthy I'm more afraid of him than the rest of the rotation combined.
  21. Ennder
    That is how the Yankees end up missing the playoffs. Big market teams still have to make smart moves.
  22. Ennder
    This deal could also open up another deal depending on the pitching prospect. How about Pitcher prospect + Weeks + mid level prospect for Brian Roberts with the savings in money. The lineup becomes Roberts Hardy Braun Fielder Hart Hall/Betemit Cabrera/Kapler Kendall Pitcher I could get behind something like that. Obviously it needs to be a real prospect for something like that to work though.
  23. Ennder
    Harden will get hurt, Dempster will revert to his 4 ERA ways, Zambrano will be lucky to be much under a 4 ERA again in his career. Lilly is a 4 ERA guy and Peavy will be over a 3.50 ERA in Wrigley. It is a very solid top to bottom rotation but it isn't nearly as scary as the names make it sound.
  24. Ennder
    The Brewers probably have a better infield defense than the yankees. Weeks was better than cano last year, Hardy is way better than Jeter, Giambi is about as bad as Fielder. ARod is a step above what we have but not enough to offset Hardy vs Jeter most likely. You don't honestly believe this proves anything? A poll of people at tango tigers blog showed that Cameron at $10M was a complete no brainer, he was worth over $12.5M. I'll trust people who actually know baseball over random fans who judge players by strike outs and RBI instead of understanding what really makes a player good or bad. I'm not completely against this deal because people are underrating Cabrera and Betemit because they are Yankees, it generally cuts both ways. Cabrera is a much better player than Gwynn as an example. He is a roughly league average CF most likely unless there was a reason to expect the poor results from last year to happen again. Betemit and Hall would form a very nice 3B platoon. Obviously the pitcher in the equation makes a big difference but the drop from Cameron to Cabrera/Betemit is probably around 1-2 wins and we would control those wins for a longer duration and for less money. The extra cash could be used towards a SP for this season and in the end this could easily improve the team or at least break even for 2009 and improve it in 2010+. It really depends on the upside of the pitcher in question though.
  25. Ennder
    Here is an interesting article and I like the idea of trading Cameron for the lefties we need. http://www.nypost.com/sev...d_move_cabrera_137265.htm Cameron for Betemit, Melky Cabrera and a pitcher. Both Cabrera and Betemit are switch hitters who hit better left handed and Betemit can play 3B. I guess that probably belongs in trade rumors but I put it here to show that Cameron obviously has enough value at $10M for 1 year that other teams are willing to trade for that. .
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