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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I think Kendall probably deserved the nod at C for last year alone, though Molina obviously is better over the long haul. Kendall had a better CS%, fewer errors and a better WP/PB ratio.
  2. Ennder
    Wright is at least above average defensively even if he isn't the best. McLouth is a really bad pick and Gonzalez was below average defensively last year so taking him over Pujols is criminal. Utley is a pretty big step above phillips but at least phillips was good defensively.
  3. Ennder
    Of course Penny isn't as good as Sheets or Burnett either and is even more of an injury concern.
  4. Ennder
    Melvin is too smart to think that strike outs are really a big deal, I highly doubt we trade Weeks just because of that.
  5. Ennder
    Weeks was 6th in DPT and everyone ahead of him on the list had more innings than he did. He had 47 in 1056 innings while Durham had 23 in 535 between milwaukee and san fran. Of course those types of stats have a lot of noise in them but the Brewers have never been a bad double play team while they had Hardy/Weeks up the middle, especially considering they aren't a very groundball pitching oriented team.
  6. Ennder
    Oh I'd definitely rather sign Dempster and hope he repeats than sign someone like Byrd or Garland, I'll agree with that. $14M a year might even be reasonable for him as long as the deal is relatively short.
  7. Ennder
    Boras always says crazy stuff like this.
  8. Ennder
    Durham started 6 DPs in 202 innings at 2B. Weeks started 26 DPs in 1056 innings. Weeks was 7th in DPS by 2B in the NL and if you prorate him to say Utley's innings(the best fielding 2B in the NL) he would have had 34 DPs compared to Utley's 37. I'm just not buying that he is so terrible at turning double plays that it offsets Durhams lack of range. Weeks was a very poor defensive 2B the first four years of his career and a roughly league average one last year. Was last year just a fluke? Could be, you never know. He looked much better to me last year so he passes my 'eye' test at the very least. Durham just looked terrible in the field last year because he couldn't get to any balls not hit right at him.
  9. Ennder
    I don't really get it. 5 years/$115M would match Santana minus 1 year on the deal and Santana is a better pitcher. Not sure what people are expecting but a 5 year/$100M deal is probably the bottom end of expectations. It certainly isn't an insult. It might not be something Sabathia will take of course but it is far from a bad initial offer.
  10. Ennder
    The biggest risk areas for SP are generally the mid to late 30's on and the early 20's so I'm just not agreeing with you I guess. The most likely ages for a pitcher to stay healthy are their mid 20's to mid 30's which is right where Sheets is right now. I'd put him down for something like 140-160 IP a year as a safe projection range with his current elbow condition obviously being the wild card. If they are lying and it really is something big then that changes things, if it is just a tired elbow from someone who probably threw too many pitches then I'd stand by that projection.
  11. Ennder
    This is exactly where the strikeouts don't matter discussions always bog down. This is NOT the point of the argument at all. Of course if we could keep everything else exactly the same and just make every strikeout of a player go away and become a ball in play they would be a more productive player, nobody disagrees with that at all. The point is that isn't realistic and you would see a dramatic change in OBP/SLG if this happened which is really why the player is more productive. If you want to boil the argument down to it's simplist state just answer this question... Player A hits .243/.344/.475 with 170 K Player B hits .293/.344/.475 with 50 K Which player is more valuable and by how much? The answer is they are almost identical in value. The lower average and extra strike outs have an almost negligible effect on the game. Player A most likely goes deeper into counts since he walks more and strikes out more, he also probably hits into fewer double plays. Player B moves runners around the bases a little bit better. The overall difference between these players is something like 1-2 runs over a full season. If you have the players OBP and SLG the number of strike outs he has is pretty much not important to the discussion. The team who leads the league in strike outs can easily still lead the league in runs scored. If a team is in the bottom of the league in OBP and SLG there is almost no way for them to compete in runs scored, even if the team somehow has 0 strike outs on the year. Strike outs just aren't an important part of the equation.
  12. Ennder
    Yeah but we would look at their OBP/SLG to see this side of things. I guess I'm missing your point with this. Going deep into counts is good no matter what, you want to run up the pitchers pitch count and get him out of the game. It isn't a stat that is trying to place some huge amount of value on a player, it is a fringe benefit type of stat like say being able to take 3rd from first base on a single(something else that cameron is very good at that doesn't show in OBP/SLG).
  13. Ennder
    Weeks makes more plays than Durham that is how. That is why Durham was one of the worst defensive 2B in baseball statistically last year and Weeks was just a tiny bit below average. As for errors, Weeks made 15 errors last year for a .975 FPct and 13 errors in the year before for a .976. Durham had a great year for errors last year but in 2007 he was a .978 and he generally lives in the .972-.982 range, it isn't like he is WAY better than Weeks for errors. Unless the ball is hit right at Durham it is a single pretty much, he just can't move at all out there.
  14. Ennder
    He wore #34 in beloit, no idea if he wore that number in spring training though.
  15. Ennder
    Not at all, we aren't trying to decide if Cameron seeing a lot of pitches helps or hurts him, we KNOW that it hurts the pitchers and that is a good thing. Regardless of why Cameron sees the pitches he is seeing them and it is running up pitcher's pitch counts which helps the team.
  16. Ennder
    They came to the conclusion that he just isn't a very good defensive catcher and probably are figuring he'll have to move eventually so why not get some value out of him before it happens.
  17. Ennder
    I'm sure it would. A strikeout is about 4 times as useful as a first pitch groundout with nobody on though so that makes sense. The same reason you hear pitchers talk about pitching to contact, the idea is to get players out using fewer pitches so you can go deeper into games.
  18. Ennder
    He is worse defensively than Weeks and not really much better offensively. I don't really see the point.
  19. Ennder
    We didn't lose Coco over $2M, we lost Coco because he didn't want to return to the team. We made an offer and he accepted an offer of $2M extra from the Reds without even asking if we would match it. Given the fact he fell apart in the 2nd half I can't say I'm sorry either. .817 OPS against and 4.94 ERA in the 2nd half last year.
  20. Ennder
    I don't know how else to interpret the conclusion. "Conclusion Jake Peavy will be the hottest target in this offseason's trade market. However, while he does bring some good trade value, he will likely not be worth as much as a team would have to trade to get him" or this comment... "However, there is one important clarification we need to make, and that is the difference between Peavy's actual trade value and his perceived trade value. While I estimate Peavy's actual trade value at around $20 million, his perceived trade value is almost certainly higher." Given his health history and how he has pitched outside of extreme pitcher parks in his career he just isn't someone I'm interested in at all. The price to get him will be greater than what he brings the team.
  21. Ennder
    Sabathia was terrible in the playoffs too and most would be happy signing him. Trying to judge a pitcher off a few postseason starts is not a good way to go about building a team. Vazquez is an above average pitcher, outside of that park and in the NL he'd probably be a decent #3 starter. Not sure I'd compare him to Suppan as he is a better pitcher than Suppan.
  22. Ennder
    I pretty much agree with the article. Peavy is going to be overrated and some team is going to give up way too much for him.
  23. Ennder
    I'd love to get Vazquez but I think some team with a pitchers park would be a better destination for him. As a pretty extreme flyball pitcher he certainly needs to get out of that bandbox though.
  24. Ennder
    The Cubs were an above average defense last year, not quite as good as in 2007 but still well above average. His BBs were a career low by over half a BB per 9 at his age that is probably just a fluke. His BABIP against was .288 which is very low for a GB pitcher compared to a career rate of .309. My guess is he is really closer to that 4.45 ERA next year than the 2.96 ERA of last year. ERA is just a terrible stat to be using to judge a pitcher over a single season and I would hope Melvin is smart enough to look at more reliable stats. I wouldn't be against signing him, his K rate is pretty high and he is a groundball pitcher and that is a skillset that ages pretty well. I just wouldn't be looking to pay ace type dollars for him because he is likely a 4 ERA guy next year.
  25. Ennder
    He means 100 Ks instead of 100 normal outs. Strike outs are bad but when you are just looking at a players numbers you are already seeing most of the effect of his strikeouts. If one player puts up a line of .240/.345/.455 with 150 K and another puts up a line of .290/.345/.455 with 70 K the difference between those players is almost nonexistent, probably in the range of 1 or at most 2 runs over a full season. The Brewers don't need to cut down on strike outs, they need to raise the team OBP. The two sometimes have something to do with each other but not always. If you graph teams year to year by strike out rates vs runs scored the graph comes out mostly random and if anything strike outs show a slight positive correlation to runs scored(I assume because strike outs come with improved SLG usually).
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