Ennder
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Everything posted by Ennder
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Is Suppan really that much better than Vargas?
Ennder replied to Pudster13's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Given the fact we have 0 sure thing can make every start on the season type pitchers I think the signing is fine. Capuano had a history of arm problems, Sheets was going through problems. Bush was a marginal guy. Davis was regressing big time. We had a bunch of young guys with uncertainty involved with them. I fully understand why they overpayed for a durable mediocre type. -
There really is no way, the LH options we have are bad hitters. Counsell and Gwynn are both below average hitters. We are just going to suffer through some struggles and righties. Maybe run a bit more against them and hope that Fielder has big days. Cameron, Hart and Braun aren't horrible against righties so we still have an ok core against them.
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For those pointing to last year as a sign that Cameron is falling apart it really was just a bad April which he played with a bad hamstring. His numbers from May 1st on last year were very good. 467 AB, 118 H, 81 R, 28 2B, 6 3B, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 58 BB, 131 K, 16 SB, 5 CS .253/.341/.473/.815 playing in the biggest pitchers park in baseball.
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=320582 not sure if that is free content or not so that link might just ask you for a password.
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Derreck Lee has faced pitchers with an OPS against of .758 so far. Fielder has faced pitchers with an OPS against of .675 so far. The Cubs OPS is .810 right now, the Brewers is .697. So if you want to use an OPS+ type of stat the Cubs have hit .052 above average and the Brewers .022 above average. That math isn't perfect of course since it doesn't remove the Brewer/Cub stats out of the OPS against but it does show that the two teams offenses are closer together than they look. The Cubs have faced pitching that has struggled/been average against every team, the Brewers have faced pitching that has been very good against every team (remove the Brewers from that .675 OPS against and it is even lower).
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They are apparently considering moving him to the bullpen for a while so that will probably stop his odds of 20+ losses. Though with the Correia injury maybe they will hold off.
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I think I'd put my money on Cameron since Hart hasn't displayed a consistent ability to take a BB in the majors. I imagine they end up pretty close to each other though.
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Well, in this case one could argue the sample size is so small, the Brewer hitters have made these pitchers look "hot". The guy they faced yesterday had a 5.91 ERA coming in. Aaron Harang is a very good pitcher, but he's been at his best this year in his two starts against the Brewers. Nelson Figueroa has a middling ERA, but he looked like Jake Peavy against the Brewers. Josh Fogg has a 10.80 ERA but gave up just one run in 5 innings against the Brewers. Maybe to a small degree but the OPS against in every single case is lower than our team OPS except for Kapler. These guys have done BETTER overall against other teams than they did against the Brewers so far as a collective.
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I posted this in another thread but I'll add it here since it seems to apply. Here are the OPS against of the pitchers each player on the Brewers has faced so far this year and the OPS of the player in parenthesis. The average NL pitcher has a .732 OPS against so far this year and every hitter in our lineup has faced above average pitching. Weeks - .700 (.673) Hall - .689 (.770) Kendall - .687 (.778) Hart - .683 (.734) Fielder - .671 (.818) Braun - .673 (.692) Hardy - .677 (.568) Gwynn - .647 (.967) Kapler - .724 (.886) Hardy and Weeks are the only two players in our lineup with an OPS lower than the OPS given up by all the pitchers they have faced. We just happen to have faced a ton of hot pitchers on the year. The bats will get going eventually, it really isn't as bad as it has looked.
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The 7.88 ERA as a RP doesn't make me much happier, the fact that he has weak stuff and thrives on location doesn't make a bullpen role seem good for him. The fact he cannot pitch well from the stretch doesn't help. THe fact he stinks in the first 25 pitches really worries me. Also McClung is only pitching in important roles because everyone else in the bullpen had already pitched. Yeah when we have tons of extra inning games in a week it matters but in most normal weeks he'll be strictly in junk innings. That is worth it to me considering that 1 in 3 pitchers hit the DL every single year(and Sheets odds are higher than most as are Parras) and Bush is our #6 SP. There is no way we move him to the bullpen when Jeff Weaver is probably our #7. It just makes no sense to me at all.
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His top 2 positions by PA are 2nd and 6th. 1569 at #6, 1373 at #2. his 3rd higest is 825 PA at 7th. 4th highest is 747 at 5th. 5th highest is 722 at leadoff. His career OPS as a #2 hitter is .790 vs .786 overall (keep in mind that is almost completely in pitchers parks). His career OPS on teh road is .809 at home is only .762. I expect somewhere around a .340 OBP and .800 OPS from him playing in miller park in that lineup.
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That isn't true at all. The only teams that would claim him are teams that think it is worth eating his contract for a year and those are only teams who expect to compete. At that point it comes down to whether the team thinks the Brewers would trade him if they claimed him since it is revocable waivers. Whether someone claimed him or not has nothing to do with people overvaluing him.
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Ok fine, but CameronsOBP is higher than Kendalls and Hardy's over the last three years so he is the best option. I already adressed why last years stats are misleading, nothing but a slow april which doesn't suggest age related massive decline at all. Cameron is the best OBP guy out of the 3, he goes the deepest into counts, he is the fastest of the three. It makes no sense to say he shouldn't be batting 2nd unless you are harping on the Ks which have nothing to do with it.
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Not at all, if bush goes to RP and we go 2 months and then Sheets gets hurt we have to send BUsh to the minors to stretch out to become a starter again. He cannot just step into the role at that point. We then have to bring up some even more marginal than Bush guy to start for 2-3 starts while he stretches out. McClung is servicable as the last man in the bullpen so I have no issue with him at all. He seems to be the type that lets in 1-2 runs a lot of the time and 0 runs occassionally which stinks but is ok as the last guy in the bullpen. Turnbow is the type that lets in 0 or 4-5 and either doesn't help the team a ton (1 inning in the 5th or 6th isnt' huge) or absolutely destroys your odds of winning. We don't really need Turnbow and McClung gone, one gone is enough. There isn't a huge reason to make BUsh a RP expecially considering his problems are the 1st inning and with RISP which are both disasters waiting to happen in a RP role.
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Because Ned Yost for some obnoxious reason wanted to stick with a lineup that mirrored what we would have when Cameron came back. He basically didn't want to jerk Hardy all over the lineup which makes absolutely no sense to me since batting 7th is terrible in this lineup and 2nd would have let him get some offensive momentum going. That is the same reason he hit Gross 2nd for so long until it became an obvious problem while he struggled.
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Ks hurt the most from number 7 through number 9. The #2 hitters job is not to move the leadoff hitter to 2nd, it is to drive him in! Bunting with your #2 hitter is a catastrophic mistake for this very reason, it is just a huge tactical mistake to make. You want a guy who won't hit into a double play and who can take pitches to let your leadoff hitter steal. Even if Cameron Ks a lot he can still hit a weak grounder to 1B to advance the runner and lower our chances of scoring if that is what the manager wants.
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I dunno, it is just hard for this bother me much. It is a 162 game season, we are going to be cold for a long part of it no matter what and we happen to still be winning more than we lose while we are cold. If you look at OPS against of pitchers faced here is what we see. Weeks - .700 Hall - .689 Kendall - .687 Hart - .683 Fielder - .671 Braun - .673 Hardy - .677 Gwynn - .647 Kapler - .724 Yeah some of that is the Brewers sucking but most certainly not all of it since the team OPS is .702 which is higher then every single one of those stats except Kapler. We have met a lot of really hot pitching and the offense has struggled.
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My first question would be what do Ks have to do with batting 2nd because I don't get it, it isn't quite as bad as this he Ks too much to hit leadoff nonsense which is the most flawed logic I've ever seen. Cameron goes deep into counts and has a decent OBP and a little pop plus some speed, he is exactly what you want in a #2 hitter. He gives Weeks a chance to steal, has the speed to stay out of a double play and the power to knock Weeks in with a double or HR. This big aversion to strike outs is just absurd, yeah I'd rather the whole team had 0 but it just isn't not this huge negative that people think it is. As for him not being the same player, he got hurt in spring training and played through it to start the year. From May 1st on last year he put up the following line. .253/.341/.473/.815 in the most extreme pitcher park in baseball. That is not a player who has fallen off the map due to age in my book.
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Bush has nothing to do with the RP, I don't get what the issue is. If we make Bush a RP then if a SP gets hurt we have Narveson or Weaver starting for us while Bush gets stretched out in the minors to start. That is much more scary to me than McClung pitching junk innings in the 5th/6th. Hopefully Turnbow is traded or released to bring us down to 12 pitchers since he is absolutely useless.
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Turnbow's 2007 form is more trouble than it is worth. He was pretty good in April and June. Was servicable in August and bad in May, July and Sept last year. The way he is bad means that he can blow a winnable game in the middle innings or you might get 1 solid inning out of him. I'd rather have someone who gives up 1 R a lot of the time than someone who occassionally gives up 3-4 runs.
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Hopefully he has a granderson type effect on the offense. Weeks sees more good pitches without Gwypler batting behind him, gets on base more and Braun comes out of his funk. Then we'll be onto something.
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Yeah this has nothing to do with the extra RP. When they released Vargas they tied their hands with the SP going to a bullpen. If they put someone like Bush in the bullpen and a month from now someone gets hurt we end up with Jeff Weaver starting while the bullpen guy stretches out in the minors. Hopefully we still DFA turnbow soon and bring up Dillon when his 10 days are up.
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Ok well then it makes sense. If he has already cleared waivers then they can keep him on a regular throwing schedule so when someone gets hurt he doesn't need to be stretched out from bullpen work.
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1. No, but it certainly is about the same like I said. 2. If you take away both of their worst months they are about the same that season, Vargas had an extremely terrible month after his injury. 3. I put GB% which is more useful than HR/9 which is sort of a BABIP type luck stat. This is most certainly the strongpoint for Davis. 4. Vargas was hurt and moved to the bullpen, not exactly a strong comparison and I've never heard pitching deep into games as being one of Davis' strengths. Most importantly Davis had a much stronger defense and a much stronger bullpen behind him in 2007 which makes his numbers look better than they were. Vargas also had back problems throughout August and pitched miserably. I think Davis was the better player as I already said, there just isn't that big of a difference between the two and Vargas was young enough and had shown control improvements in the 2nd half of 2006 so there were reasons to expect not much dropoff from the deal.
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If I'm not mistaken it is revocable so they do this, see if anyone claims him. If someone does claim him they have a few more days to yank him back off waivers and decide what to do. I don't see how hard it is to just DFA Turnbow.
