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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Typical Nightengale nonsense. All of the other teams in the central are in a rebuild, coming out of a rebuild or are trying to cut payroll. Of course they have the highest payroll. I think this deal makes sense for the Twins. The AL central was just awful last year, the Indians are trying to retool things a bit. This is a move they are hoping can get them over the hump and actually go deep into the playoffs instead of just losing right away like the last 2 seasons. There is almost no way this deal brings back value straight up, but once you get into the playoffs the value of wins goes way up so it could be worth it to the team.
  2. Ennder
    It is more than the profile, those players wouldn't have those stats anymore either. The pitchers are too good and too many RP are throwing too fast. Every one of those players would strike out a lot more in today's game than they did in their careers.
  3. Ennder
    But without the 4 WAR upside. I don't really expect him to hit 4 WAR by any means but if you take his best season and prorate it to 162 games you get 4 WAR. Second best prorated to 162 is 3.3 WAR. That is comparable to Shaw's best 2 seasons. Shaw is 2 years younger though so I'd much rather have him back instead but Shaw didn't want to come back so that wasn't really an option.
  4. Ennder
    But without the 4 WAR upside. I don't really expect him to hit 4 WAR by any means but if you take his best season and prorate it to 162 games you get 4 WAR. Second best prorated to 162 is 3.3 WAR. That is comparable to Shaw's best 2 seasons. Shaw is 2 years younger though so I'd much rather have him back instead but Shaw didn't want to come back so that wasn't really an option.
  5. Ennder
    The Dodgers in 2018 went to the World Series with platoons all over the place. Timeshare at C isn't really a thing, everyone shares time. Last year we basically had time shares at 1B/2B and while Arcia was a full time SS it wasn't pretty. So even last years Brewers were basically the same situation.
  6. Ennder
    The Dodgers in 2018 went to the World Series with platoons all over the place. Timeshare at C isn't really a thing, everyone shares time. Last year we basically had time shares at 1B/2B and while Arcia was a full time SS it wasn't pretty. So even last years Brewers were basically the same situation.
  7. Ennder
    You are assuming they are going to play to their worst recent season which is why you are calling some of them depth guys. Look at a 3 year average for these guys and you aren't going to feel that way anymore. Instead people seem to just look at their worst recent year and assume that is the one that matters. Morrison and Healy are more depth guys but Gyorko, Sogard and Smoak have all shown league average production or better 2 of the past 3 years.
  8. Ennder
    We are going to see this same joke from someone in every FA signing or trade the rest of this off-season, aren't we...? . We saw it about Miley in 2018 and about Lyles at the deadline in 2019, we saw it about Villar before his big season etc. Some of these signings are going to be very good values. It is just hard to know which ones.
  9. Ennder
    This tiger charm I bought must have worked, I haven't seen a tiger in my yard all year. That is basically the logic you just used. You can't know anything by what we have done this year. Stearns isn't going to spend money just to spend it, he is going to make the deals he thinks make sense. We have no clue at all where the payroll could go.
  10. Ennder
    I will also say that some fans tend to look at last year and that is it to judge players. Some fans look at a 3 year average. Some fans pick out the worst of the past 3 years and assume that is what we get. That is why the reactions to these deals are always so different by different people. If you just look at the worst of the past 3 years for guys you aren't going to be happy with anything but full price name brand players. I personally think the 3 year average putting more stock into last year makes more sense. But some people are convinced Sogard stinks because last year was a fluke and then also assume that Gyorko is going to stink because he was bad last year. You can't really have it both ways imo. If you are just going to assume the worst out of their past few years is what you get you are going to drive yourself crazy and be wrong a lot.
  11. Ennder
    If Gyorko puts out his 2015-2018 stats he will be a very nice asset on the team. If he slides more towards that 2019 he is obviously not. So hard to know what we got with a lot of these guys until we see them on the field. I personally think this team on paper is better than last years team on paper going into the season. But both of them had huge room for variance.
  12. Ennder
    The Rays who got a career 119 OPS+ player whose only drawback was defense which they can hide since they are in the AL in exchange for a pitcher who couldn't even strike out 1 per inning in A ball and walks too many guys.
  13. Ennder
    Did the same with Capuano pushing for 20 wins in 2005 for a team out of the playoff hunt. Kept pushing him deep into games trying to get wins.
  14. Ennder
    I could not disagree with this more. This isn't about the teams record or how players did etc. This is about how poorly Yost managed the on field team. The fact he would bring in his loogy to face a righty in a big moment on a hunch, he would pinch hit with the wrong guys, poor lineup constructions etc. I'm about as forgiving as anyone when it comes to manager moves because i feel that there is so much we don't know about what goes into these decisions. Yost is the only manager I've ever seen though where there were 5 choices in the bullpen or to pinch hit and only one of them was clearly the wrong one and he would repeatedly go with that one. There might be one I prefer and 3 or 4 that I could understand and he would still pick choice 5. Then in the post game interview his reasoning would be, I had a feeling he'd do something. He was just terrible. Roenicke was bad with the clubhouse, Macha felt like he was asleep half of the time, but Yost was the only one I felt like a normal fan could out manage from an X's and O's standpoint.
  15. Ennder
    Yost is by far the worst in game manager the Brewers have ever had, he was just awful. He is the Yuni B of managers. He was an ok clubhouse guy though. The complaints about Counsell's bullpen usage is really a complaint about current day baseball. All of baseball is minimizing starting pitching and all of baseball is going heavy bullpen. There were 4 teams that used their bullpen more than the Brewers last year and 4 more that used it basically the same. There were 5 teams with fewer innings by their starters and 6 more in the same general range. The Brewers are in the upper end of usage but it isn't like they stand out. Roughly 1/3 of the league is in the same general area as the Brewers. I really think the bullpen thing is more about lack of quality starters than it is about Counsell doing something wrong. I'm sure he wishes he had more than 1 pitcher who could make it through the order a 3rd time, he just hasn't really had that.
  16. Ennder
    I can't imagine Thames was interested in coming back here once we didn't pick up the option. Even if he did though this is the complete wrong way to think about contracts. What these players do shouldn't change whether the contract was a good idea or not. Thames could get hurt and never play a game for the nats and it wouldn't make it a bad contract. Either one of them could go on to hit 30+ HR's next year as they both have proven they can do. These are like little hedge bets and you know that sometimes you win the bet and sometimes you lose it, the result doesn't change whether or not the gamble was worth it. That is why the contracts are short and small, because they are risks, not sure things.
  17. Ennder
    That is completely meaningless. I didn't say the ball wasn't different than the minor league ball. I said it wasn't different than the major league balls being used in 2017. The balls definitely changed late in 2015, we have pretty definitive proof of that. We don't have anything concrete from that point on though, just a bunch of conjecture and poorly run experiments that are trying to prove a change instead of being subjective.
  18. Ennder
    I disagree. Year to year variation is completely normal in baseball. When they make balls they make more than a full seasons worth at a time and I don't think they change every other year like this, even if they did you wouldn't see smooth transitions because they don't start new seasons with new runs of balls, they finish the previous seasons balls. I see no reason to believe anything has changed since the new run of balls started late in 2015. Everything else just looks like normal variations and changes in pitch mixes and hitting styles. The 2017 and 2019 HR rates were very close to each other, there is almost no way that 2018 was using different balls. That is just normal year to year variance that you have seen over the entire history of baseball.
  19. Ennder
    Sorry, I don't see any way an automated strikezone will lead to fewer umpires on the field. Each position has specific responsibilities and taking balls and strikes away from the homeplate umpire is not going to have any affect on the rest of them. Of course it will. In the minors they only use 2 umps, you don't need to have 4. If the home plate umpire is not focusing on balls and strikes they can easily do the job of the right field or left field ump as well as their own. Most likely it would be the 3rd base umpire that gets replaced with the field ump tending to slide towards 3B when it looks like a play could go that way.
  20. Ennder
    The ball changed late in 2015. Last year's spike was more about changes in hitting and pitching philosophy imo. Pitchers are focusing on pitching high in the zone and on spin rate and the low pitch is going completely out of favor. This is going to lead to more HRs naturally as well as lower BABIPs and higher K rates. Hitters are focusing more on elevating their swing planes which again increases HR but lowers BABIP and increases K rates.
  21. Ennder
    I will take the under on Braun starting 20 games at 1B. I'll take the under on him starting 1 game at 3B. I think the team goes with a 4 headed OF with Gamel filling in for injuries. Narvaez is the regular C, Smoak is the regular 1B. Hiura is the regular 2B and Urias, Arcia, Sogard split time at various IF slots. Where people bat in the order is way too fungible to worry about. We will see 120 different lineups on the season just like we normally do. Last season the Brewers most common lineup was used 4 times, it is just not something to worry about because it is never steady. Cain leads off if he is playing well, Yelich and Hiura are towards the top. If players play to their 3 year average it is a very deep lineup. If players struggle there is a little bit of depth which is nice.
  22. Ennder
    For now they need to be behind the plate. But this is likely the first step towards reducing the overall number of umps needed on a baseball field. I am not surprised they want to slow it down. I'm all for them making the change though, I just get why the umps are against it. You are always going to need an umpire behind the plate. Quick plays there are rare but happen. A guy tries to steal home on a pitch are you expecting the 3b umpire to sprint down to make the call? Bunts in front of the plate, batters fouling balls off their feet, catchers interference, etc. Not to mention on some balls hit to the outfield one of the field umpires will run out to see if it's catch or a homerun. Take the home plate ump away and you leave two guys on the infield. There will always be a need for a home plate ump. I never said there would not be. I said there would be fewer on the field. If the home plate ump isn't so focused on the balls and strikes they can replace one of the other umps on the field. Robot umps will eventually reduce the total umps on the field.
  23. Ennder
    For now they need to be behind the plate. But this is likely the first step towards reducing the overall number of umps needed on a baseball field. I am not surprised they want to slow it down. I'm all for them making the change though, I just get why the umps are against it.
  24. Ennder
    Shaw was lost in spring training and never figured it out, it had little to do with playing time imo. Even if he rebounds this year that is going to be a warning sign for teams looking to sign him in the future. The fact he has lost it at the plate and not been able to figure it out during the season is always going to be a red flag for him until age becomes a red flag. I also said going into last season he had no warning signs to suggest that 2019 was going to be what it was, obviously last season is a big warning sign going forward.
  25. Ennder
    Risky for a 32 year old pitcher but this is one that seems reasonable.
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