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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I'd have to look deeper at the stats to comment on this directly but I will say that ERA is a worthless stat in season. It takes 500 IP for it to be considered statistically meaningful. So much of ERA is out of a pitchers control that you really shouldn't use it as a gauge of anything. Inherited runners scored, how many players happen to be on for the HRs which aren't always the pitchers to control, random variance from BABIP, discounting unearned runs etc. I will also say this team has played awful defense on the year just from watching. The entire team has looked like it was asleep most of the year.
  2. Ennder
    Wow you guys sure did read a lot into the one sentence I typed. I still think this is a 84ish win team that has played poorly. I jus. Don't think an 84 win team is enough to come back from this poor of a start. The thing I fear most is being indecisive come trading time.
  3. Ennder
    Not sure it is a good thing but no longer worst record in baseball.
  4. Ennder
    Isn't it kindve sill to feel this way about any draft let alone a MLB draft? It'll take 3-6 years before any of these guys are decided on if they are a bust or not. What looks good on paper today, might suck in a few years. People love to discuss drafts but you are more or less correct. Having a great draft almost never means anything because the vast majority of players don't end up being the player people think thy will.
  5. Ennder
    A large part of the Giants success in pitching is playing in a pitchers park in a division full of pitcher parks.
  6. Ennder
    To me the fact they passed on the college pitchers suggests they are looking to rebuild. They could have easily taken a pitcher hoping the could help by the end of next year.
  7. Ennder
    Gomez has been like this through like 9 managers now between majors and minors. At some point you blame the player and not the manager.
  8. Ennder
    Yeah ESPN custom stats are almost always awful. Their QB stat is terrible as an example.
  9. Ennder
    The variance is just wider than you think. If this were a true 81 win team and you got to replay this season 100 times they would occasionally break 90 wins. The 2009 Seattle Mariners is the classic example. In 2008 they won 61 games, they added a couple of minor players and in 2009 they won 85 games. In 2010 they added more talent and won 61, 65, 67 the next 3 years. 2009 they had a 70 or less win team that just played way over its head. You bring up the pirates and 18 years, they played over their heads in 1999 to get to 78 wins when they probably had a 69 or 70 win team. This Brewers team has low 80s win talent on it. Those pirates teams had maybe 1 player that you could even imagine making an all star team. This team has a core lineup that could be all star level. It has pitching that in the past has been at least league average. This is not the pirates or Brewers of the big losing streak at all. This team is perfectly capable of going on a run and breaking .500 on the year. It just has played really bad baseball overall on the year so far. I still think the most likely scenario is we play .500 from here on out and the bad start makes it a dead year. I just can be realistic about how baseball actually works. Bad teams don't always have a losing record and good teams don't always have a winning one, it just doesn't work like that.
  10. Ennder
    Having watched baseball for a very long time and followed the statistical side for a very long time I will say this is a team that could still break 90 wins. I don't think it will. I think the most likely scenario is they play around .500 and it is a dead season or that they trade everything away and it becomes a dead season. But stop trying to pretend that baseball is the type of sport where teams can't play way above their talent level for big chunks of time. This kind of thing is why you see teams win 90+ games one year bring back the same team and only win 70 games the next. The range of outcomes in baseball is just huge.
  11. Ennder
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/05/22/-smith-suspended-foreign-substance/27776373/ Seems a bit harsh considering what other pitchers got for punching guys.
  12. Ennder
    I hope they have a plan before they trade anyone though. The talent you want to get back for someone like Lohse is much different if you are refueling for 2016 than if you are trading Lucroy and Gomez in the off season and rebuilding for 2017 and beyond.
  13. Ennder
    His first start for the Cardinals was also in August. I'd hope if we decide to blow the team up that we would start trading earlier than that. He was also traded for major league proven talent and not prospects so I don't think we'd get the same type of deal since I'd assume we are looking for prospects that are a couple years off still.
  14. Ennder
    If I had to guess it was the lack of OBP. SLG is very streaky while OBP is pretty consistent. Add to it the fact that the pitching is hit or miss and not always dominant and I just think when we aren't hitting for power we aren't winning. A team like the cardinals which is built around OBP is just going to be more consistent when the HR isn't there.
  15. Ennder
    I'd say Betancourt had a 1.000 OPS over 17 games at some point. It is way too small a sample to say anything. It is very nice to see regardless.
  16. Ennder
    My guess is you are wrong. If a team is willing to trade for him it is because they believe he is the pitcher of the past 2 season where he was completely viable as a playoff pitcher.
  17. Ennder
    No more than you can give me a reason to believe that we are not under-performing. Almost every single player on the team is performing under their 3 year average by a pretty large amount. It was a high variance team going into the season which is why I said they weren't really a projectable bunch. I'd believe a .750 OPS out of Braun, I'd believe a .900 OPS too. I'd believe a .750 OPS out of Aramis, I could see an .850 OPS too. I could see an entire rotation of sub 3.60 ERA guys, I could see any or all of them at 4.00 ERA+ too. I mean I'd be shocked if Maldenado is really a .479 OPS player. I'd be surprised if Scooter was at a .474 OPS at the end of the year. Those 2 alone have massively under-produced. I'd be shocked if Lohse remained a 6 ERA pitcher all year. These are so far off of expectations that they seem like flukes. Lohse could just lose it and be a high 4 ERA guy, I doubt he will but he could, but a 6 doesn't seem reasonable.
  18. Ennder
    Lohse now has a 3.66 ERA in his past 5 starts. It will only take a few more to get him to where he has some sort of trade value if we go that route.
  19. Ennder
    The kind of steroids being used in the game today shouldn't add a significant amount of weight regardless.
  20. Ennder
    Vegas odds are built to promote betting. Baseballprospectus has generally pegged the team as low 80s wins since Fielder left the team. It is heavily regressed so that generally means 'in the playoff mix'. Last year they actually got over a 90% playoff odds at one point, it took a really huge collapse to not make it. A collapse largely caused by most of the lineup getting nagging injuries at the same time, not due to lack of talent.
  21. Ennder
    This is a team that from 2008 (Braun's start) until the all star break of last year had the 8th most wins of any team in the league and 2nd most in the division. Every year since 2007 we have come into spring training knowing the team at least has a shot at the playoffs and then anything can happen. It is probably the best 10 year stretch in team history. That is with Braun's various issues that probably cost the team at least 3 wins a year the past 2 years now. I have no problems with how much talent has been on this team in recent history whatsoever. This statement is also not really factually correct, at no point in the past 10 years have the Brewers had a 75 win team going into the season. They might have had a 75 win result due to things out of their control but they were always better than that talent wise. It very well may be time to rebuild but this past decade has been anything but a failure for this franchise.
  22. Ennder
    Worse teams than this have gone 29-19 many times in history. Picking a random cruddy Brewer year. The 2001 68 win Brewer team had a stretch where they went 25-18 as an example. Pick out just about any bad year and you'll find a good 20-25 game stretch where they played like a playoff team. It is doing it consistently that is the issue.
  23. Ennder
    I simply do not believe in results-oriented thinking. If the Brewers offensive players stay healthy, we make the playoffs and get hot like the Royals and get to the World Series, it doesn't make the Lohse deal better. When we signed Lohse we had a team that was on the fringe of being a playoff team with players controlled for a couple more years so the wins per dollar was in the optimum spot to sign a FA player. I think people still somehow think that Lohse is just another Suppan when he was clearly a much better pitcher when we signed him and while he played for us. I don't see any way to call the deal a debacle though.
  24. Ennder
    .500 at the all star breaks means a lot of the question marks that surround this team are trending towards the positive. Braun is probably hitting more like Braun, Peralta is probably pitching well, Nelson has turned into a quality pitcher. Ramirez or Segura has probably stepped up etc. This team has an extremely wide range of outcomes on this season, so far we have trended towards the negative which makes the decision easy but if we come on really strong it makes it very hard. If this team is sitting around .500 when it comes trading time it is just going to be awkward all around. The roster will look too good to trade pieces away, it will look too mediocre to trade for pieces. We will have also done a lot of winning against tough teams because the teams schedule is still pretty brutal until the all star break. Part of it will depend on how dominant the other wild card teams look. I also get a chuckle about the Lohse debacle comments people make. He's had around a 3.50 ERA as a Brewer outside of 3 bad starts to start this year. I didn't care for the last year on his contract but this is hardly a debacle. Suppan was a debacle but people who really got baseball knew that one would be.
  25. Ennder
    I think a lot of people are confusing desperate need of a roster overhaul and that is the only way to go from here with thinking a roster overhaul is the best way to go. This team isn't desperate for an overhaul, it is just one viable path to the future. If the team is sitting at .500 near the trade deadline there are really hard decisions to be made and anyone who says otherwise is just not being honest. This isn't a black and white decision. Those who say it was a disaster to not blow up the team before last season and only winning 82 games even though it was due to most of the lineup getting hurt late proves it, are just living in denial.
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