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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    Season attendance is driven to a large degree by the previous season record. Both of your cases involve previous losing seasons. Cleveland had 3 million for 6 straight seasons. They were 1st in the AL for 2 years. They definitely support winning baseball.
  2. kramnoj
    Then we could quit dumping money into this bottomless pit. How much money do you think he is costing the Brewers right now? Is insurance paying for most of his rehab?
  3. kramnoj
    So everyone is pretty much ignoring the most important part of my post? This has been covered previously. You are correct that if he is added to the 40 man he will be fine, and I don't think he can be suspended while already being suspended. So there will be no need to add him to the 40 man this winter, but the Brewers may decide it is neccessary to do so next spring. We don't really know.
  4. kramnoj
    I really enjoyed it. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, who is behind it, etc. It's fun to try to look at the show and see what the clues are. It's the best new show of the season, as far as I have seen.
  5. kramnoj
    I wouldn't put much stock into the comment that Jeffress has no trade value. Someone said that Butler was nothing last year. Some people would rather make wild exaggerations than take the time to make a more nuanced point. While it would be hyperbole to say that Jeffress has no trade value, it certainly would be low right now. I don't know that it really makes too much sense to think of him as trade fodder right now, simply because he could be worth so much more to the Brewers at some point down the road.
  6. kramnoj
    These things killed them this year: Injury to Weeks I'm curious about this. I don't think it had that much of an impact. Brewers at 2B hasn't been a problem. I suppose it led to the trading away of two players that could have been used for a different trade later on, but I can't see how it killed the Brewers this season.
  7. kramnoj
    My two copper pence. Martin's Song of Ice And Fire is simply tremendous. I am also a big fan of Eddings. I loved the Belgariad and Mallorean series, and I loved his other series he wrote. It inclduded the only scene in a book that made me tear up. Goodkind was very enjoyable. I'll make a recommendation for Thieves World. I wouldn't put it as high as many of the other good recommendations that have been made, but I really enjoyed it. It is a series where different chapters of each book are written by several authors, and each chapter is told from the POV of one the of the many characters in the city of Sanctuary. I just thought it was a fun way to tell a story.
  8. kramnoj
    He will have less than 3 months of service time, so he could come up in July.
  9. kramnoj
    Braun and Fielder would have helped us more a year later. How would Braun have helped more a year later?
  10. kramnoj
    X ellence has been adamant that Escobar will be better at 29 than at 23 and that the Brewers should use him accordingly. I don't know if he has laid out why exactly, but someone else mentioned Ozzie Smith, and he had an interesting progression with the bat.
  11. kramnoj
    Hardy is one of the best SS in the major leagues who had a bad year. And if they jettison him for that bad year, well, I don't know. Melvin has no need to jettison Hardy. Having an extra year of control gives him flexibility. That being said, I do think it's best to trade Hardy this offseason. I don't have confidence that this is a fluke for Hardy. I think Hardy is far more sensitive than the average pro athlete, and having Escobar as an understudy doesn't sit well with Hardy, I don't think. The worst thing that could happen is for Hardy to come back and continue to be in a funk where he worries about his future.
  12. kramnoj
    What about Hardy and Casey for Baker plus? The Twins could would get a cheap upgrade on Crede and improve their SS. They take a hit on Baker, but having Baker doesn't look like it's going to get them to the playoffs this year so maybe improving their offense will help. Personally, I think that trade helps both teams. I just don't know what the "plus" is. I would imagine a B ish prospect.
  13. kramnoj
    They also had record attendance for so many seasons, but the departures of Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, etc. have completely demoralized the fan base and left a lot of people turned off. Cleveland is an excellent example of what the Brewers could come close to acheiving with a decent run of successful promotions leading to cheap good-above average players. One of the problems with the Indians was the talent they traded away. Sexson plus for Wickman et al was a part of the reason that the Indians weren't as good following their run. Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon is another. I think there was another trade or two of lesser degree that was a veteran upgrade for a player that went on to have success. I think the phrase mortgaging the future is used too often, but clearly the Indians gave away wins down the road for upgrades during their run. Plenty of people have their beefs with Melvin, but I am happy that he doesn't appear to have given away any future talent this year for marginal upgrades this year.
  14. kramnoj
    I hate to repeat myself over and over, but I really miss the days when we felt "big league" rather than "small market". Baseball was so much more fun in the past before all this free agency nonsense started. Lots and lots of Brewer fans don't share your feelings. They are coming out to the ballpark and they are watching on tv or listening on the radio more than ever before.
  15. kramnoj
    It apparently does much more than that. What does this mean? Like I said, there is no way to measure its bluntness There's no way, or you don't want to spend the time to do so? Its commercial in that its a proprietary product. Is its methodology published somewhere that I'm not aware of? Commercial and propietary aren't synonyms. There are different versions of MLEs. As far as methodology goes, unless you are looking to improve it, the methodology isn't as important as the results. Other than individual cases, why do you believe that MLEs aren't useful? As far as Casey goes, I do hope that he gets traded if he can bring in a decent return. I was looking through teams that could use a SS and 3B and was looking at the Twins. I don't know what they would be willing to give up, but I was looking at Baker. I doubt the Twins would be eager to give him up, but I think that improves both teams. Edit: I didn't actually specify what I was thinking of in trading for Baker. I was thinking about Hardy and Casey. That's more than I would like to give up, so maybe the Brewers get a minor league pitcher back.
  16. kramnoj
    How was Abreu's year terrible? Either way, the commonality with Abreu and Edmonds is inferior defense. Cameron doesn't have that issue. I would be surprised if he signed for $6M. There will be competition for him if the Brewers don't bring him back. He will be one of the better FA outfield options available if he gets there.
  17. kramnoj
    MLE is a recent invention - there is no telling what reliability or validity it has and there probably never will be as its a commercial product. It's not like MLEs are random numbers. They are based on past players, how they did in the minors and compares how they did in the majors. It's a blunt tool and should never be taken as an absolute authority, but they shouldn't be dismissed either. As far as commercial product, I don't understand what you mean. MLEs are freely available.
  18. kramnoj
    It's gotta be either one or the other: Bush is hurt and still pitching, in which case the management/staff are morons Have I argued any differently? I think managing a pitching staff is incredibly difficult, and it's not clear at all to me that the Brewers combination of training staff and management are good at the process of identifying when a pitcher shouldn't be pitching and communicating with a pitcher to know when they shouldn't be pitching. All I've argued is that a healthy Bush and Suppan make this team a lot better. I've never argued that this organization would be a guarantee to make that happen. Even on the outs, Pittsburgh was hitting Suppan like a slow pitch softball pitcher. Suppan is not often dominant. Suppan relies on games like his most recent one to achieve his success.
  19. kramnoj
    Why have Bush and Suppan continued to get rocked now? It's not clear to me that Bush is healthy, and Suppan hardly got rocked in his most recent start. They have a good game or two but over the course of the whole season they end up with mediocre at best results. Mediocre results is exactly what this team needed to stay competitive. Unfortunately they didn't get that from the replacement starters.
  20. kramnoj
    In the Cabrera numbers his put outs and assists were around 600, certainly not that small of a sample Jason Giambi could play SS and get some of those outs. The sample decreases because the amount of meaningful plays is smaller to a significant degree. Why do people who use it treat it seriously? Because even flawed PBP data is better than the anecdotal evidence of "I saw this guy a couple of times and he made some bad plays". I like to look at UZR, but it is by no means definitive. Tango has an article where he talks about UZR and WAR, and in the comments section he mentions that WAR uses a mixture of UZR, Dewan's stats, and the Fans Scouting Report. I don't know if that's the same WAR that we see at fangraphs or an end of the season one, but that was news to me.
  21. kramnoj
    Either way, even if Bush/Suppan had kept up those numbers and stayed in the rotation, the point is I still don't think the rotation would have been good enough for this team to contend for the playoffs. There were a fair number of people who thought that before the season. Yet, there the Brewers were, in 1st place with those two pitching and healthy and an effective bullpen behind them.
  22. kramnoj
    You're acting like the fill-ins are totally destroying what would be an otherwise respectable number. Show me that's not the case. And the team/management has no "bad luck" to blame for letting Bush and Suppan start games and get hammered while they were both injured. You are absolutely correct. Further evidence that the Brewers would have been in a better position with a healthy Bush and Suppan. But then you said I'm fooling myself.
  23. kramnoj
    So, on average, one team a year is as worse as the Brewers staff is this year? That isn't what I think of when I think of historic. It's also not clear to me that showing how bad the pitching replacements have been show that the Brewers wouldn't have been ok if their pitching was lucky enough to stay healthy.
  24. kramnoj
    Everyone here acts like Hardy was hitting .170 with 2 homers and booting tons of balls in the field. If this is the case, you should be able to prove a lot of examples of this. But it isn't the case. Hardy was performing badly offensively. His defense was good, but having good defense isn't a reason to keep Hardy in the bigs when Escobar was available. Hardy's offense was hurting the team, and giving Escobar a chance to help the team makes perfect sense. He's been bad this year, but not Royce Clayton or Jose Hernandez bad. That's an interesting comparison, since Hardy's OPS+ this season is the same as Jose's worst with the team. There is no way Hardy comes back next year, and his trade value has been diminished big time His trade value has been diminished because of his poor play. I'm going to guess that any GM is going to care more about the fact that he played badly enough to earn a demotion, not the fact that he finally got his demotion.
  25. kramnoj
    I'm not sure why Lowe is being talked about as one who got away. He signed for 4 years and $60M. If he's on this team, we don't have Hoffman, we may not have Counsell, heck, we may have had to trade away Cameron to the Yankees for Melky and pay part of Cam's salary. This year's team isn't better, and then we have $45M left for 3 years for a 37 year old pitcher. And 4/60 is what he signed for when the Mets dropped out and settled for Perez. The Brewers would have had to outbid the Braves for Lowe. Before last season I was hopeful that Lowe could have been had for 2 years at $10M each or so. I'm glad the Brewers didn't get Lowe for the contract that he got.
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