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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    The top 5 in the lineup for most of the season (Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder and Hart) are going to be 26, 26, 25, 24 and 27 when the 2009 season opens. That means none of them have hit their baseball prime yet. I think this is asserted too strongly. Not all players have the same development pattern. Arod was fantastic at age 20 and didn't have a better season until he was 29. Unless Fielder significantly changes his lifestyle, I don't think he'll ever put up a better season than last year. Braun will hopefully learn to take more pitches, but it will be difficult to significantly improve over what he did in his rookie season.
  2. kramnoj
    I wouldn't take everything Sveum said at the presser at face value. I don't think Melvin and Attanasio would have put Sveum in charge if he didn't have a few ideas about what could be done to get this team out of a slump. If Sveum has ideas on what he is going to do to make some changes, he's not going to tell us before he talks to his team. Now the changes could be simple, and already discussed in this thread. Don't use Gagne in high leverage situations (even if he wouldn't use those words, it's the same idea). Don't hurt the team by running Kendall into the ground every dang day. If he was helping the pitchers, that would be one thing, but if the pitchers are struggling and Kendall is struggling, we really need Rivera's bat more often. Don't let Hall face a righty. Managers matter. How they matter, and how much they matter, well that's hard to quantify. But if managers didn't matter, some team would just have a Baseball Operations guy with a laptop in the dugout punching in the game situation and getting out the most likely result. It will be hard to show that Sveum will be the ingredient needed to spark this team. But making a change to get Yost out of there may be what it takes to motivate this team, anger this team, relax this team, whatever they need to produce better.
  3. kramnoj
    When the Fielder-Parra dustup occurred and Yost was playing the fiddle while a pile formed mere feet from him, I had two thoughts: 1. This happens a couple times a month in the clubhouse and Yost doesn't think it's a big deal. 2. Yost has completely lost this team and had no idea how to handle the situation. IMO, I have enough reason to believe the latter.
  4. kramnoj
    I wonder if Attanasio went to Yost and gave him a chance to save his job, or just decided to fire him after last night. From my experience, I can see Mark asking Yost: what will you do over the next 12 games to get this team into the playoffs. I assume Yost gave an answer like "There's nothing I can do, the players have just had bad luck, it will turn around, we just have to have patience". Then Attanasio goes to Sveum, says Yost isn't doing enough to lead this team, name the things you will do to get this team to the playoffs. Sveum lists the things he'll do and Mark pulls the trigger. Just speculation on my part, but makes sense to me.
  5. kramnoj
    Homer speculating that this move came from Attanasio, that Melvin wouldn't have done it. That is certainly plausible. This could be the best team that Attanasio ever is owner of and he doesn't want to see the season slip away.
  6. kramnoj
    Anyway, Punto doesn't get paid like a starter and is a clear upgrade at the plate from Counsell, who may take a good approach at the plate but at the end of the day still has the indisputable results of a banjo hitter. Isn't Punto expected to be a FA this year? I don't think we know what he will be paid. If the Brewers can snag him for cheap, Punto could be useful, I just don't think he's a player to put more than minimum resources into. He's a career .650 OPS player, and it was below .600 last year. As for Capuano, I have heard from Drew Olsen a couple times that he thinks Cap will be back. $3 mil would be about the lowest he could make in arbitration, and some team may decide to take a flier on Cap if the Brewers non-tender him. Maybe he and the Brewers sign a 2 year deal, where Chris makes like $1-$2 million in 2009 and $6-$8 million in 2010 based on GS or IP.
  7. kramnoj
    Is Escobar expected to hit well enough that between his offense and defense he would be better than either Hall(and his platoon mate) or Weeks. Escobar is regarded as a star defensively, a player that can be expected to be a +15 or +20 Run defensive player. If you project offense and defense, I would much rather have Hall as a sub and Alcides at SS. We don't have to bring him up at all next year and I think the best option would be to leave hm in AAA and bring him up if one of our infielder fails next year. Escobar could certainly use time at AAA. Who knows, Hall could have his Lasik procedure and return to be a good hitter. I just think it's one of the things to consider. One thing though is that I highly doubt Hardy gets moved in season. That's why if the team doesn't think that Hall will improve, I think they should make any big changes in the offseason.
  8. kramnoj
    Cameron should be gone. Even without performance issues, I'd prefer to keep getting younger/evaluating talent. It's easy to say that without looking at who is available. Who would you like in CF next year for the Brewers? Again, the Brewers SO way too much and adding another bat with a hole in a it was dumb. The Brewers problem isn't that they K too much. It is that right now they aren't getting on base as a team. If there's nobody on base when you come to bat, getting a K isn't really any worse than any other out (it might even be better, considering it will take a minimum of 3 pitches to get a K).
  9. kramnoj
    I'm aware of that. If the Brewers felt that the best way to field a team was to put Hardy at 3B and Escobar at SS, I tell Hardy that, and I suggest he move. If he resists because of money, I make him an offer that would represent his expected value. If he declines, I trade him if I can find a good deal. I don't want someone on my team that cares more about themselves than about the team. Players better than Hardy have been moved. It's not common, but it's nowhere near unprecedented. BTW, I know you don't trust current defensive stats. I'll give you more ammunition for that. Chris Dial's NL OPD stat shows Hardy as being the least defensive value at SS in the NL through early September. Milwaukee 3B do rank well, so there could be some of the positioning effect that has been discussed.
  10. kramnoj
    Punto has only had two seasons that could be called good. Luckily for him, it is two of the last three seasons, so he may get some interest. But his career OPS+ is 73. That's not somebody I would want to give much more than the minimum to. I'd rather give guys like Heether, Irribarren or Crabbe a shot at winning the UI job. I also don't see a reason to bring Dillon back. His slugging percentage in AAA cratered this season. He'll be 33 next year, he could just be done as a useful major leaguer. Do you prefer Salome repeat AA instead of getting the job at AAA next year? IMO, Salome gets the job at AAA next year and is groomed to take over the major league job in 2010. Lucroy gets the job in AA. I don't know the low minors enough to see who should be catching below that. I assume Lawrie gets some starts in rookie league. Rottino could be backup C and utility corner for AAA. I think Capuano is coming back. He still is under club control through 2010. He will make about $3 mil in 2009 and could be useful in the 2nd half of the year. I think the Brewers will need to give small roles to system players and will need to save their money for higher leverage players, wherever the money fits, whether that be a rotation guy or a couple of bullpen arms.
  11. kramnoj
    I would guess that a fair amount of Chicagoans buying tickets are getting both games and will just get a hotel for the night. I expect thousands of calls in sick Monday morning. I wonder if they'll open up Club and Terrace level if demand hits, or if they just won't have staff to support it and won't be able to.
  12. kramnoj
    The linked article says that Kremblas was let go to pursue other opportunities. Maybe that's just corporate-speak, but I think it could be true. The article talks about how he has been passed up multiple times for spots on the major league staff. If the Brewers don't think he fits in with what they want at the major league level, it only makes sense to let him see what else is available for him. He's still a young guy, I doubt he wants to top out at being a AAA manager. The article says he will be interviewing with an NL Central team. His minor league days were with the Reds, wonder if that will be his new destination.
  13. kramnoj
    The linked article says that Kremblas was let go to pursue other opportunities. Maybe that's just corporate-speak, but I think it could be true. The article talks about how he has been passed up multiple times for spots on the major league staff. If the Brewers don't think he fits in with what they want at the major league level, it only makes sense to let him see what else is available for him. He's still a young guy, I doubt he wants to top out at being a AAA manager. The article says he will be interviewing with an NL Central team. His minor league days were with the Reds, wonder if that will be his new destination.
  14. kramnoj
    The linked article says that Kremblas was let go to pursue other opportunities. Maybe that's just corporate-speak, but I think it could be true. The article talks about how he has been passed up multiple times for spots on the major league staff. If the Brewers don't think he fits in with what they want at the major league level, it only makes sense to let him see what else is available for him. He's still a young guy, I doubt he wants to top out at being a AAA manager. The article says he will be interviewing with an NL Central team. His minor league days were with the Reds, wonder if that will be his new destination.
  15. kramnoj
    The linked article says that Kremblas was let go to pursue other opportunities. Maybe that's just corporate-speak, but I think it could be true. The article talks about how he has been passed up multiple times for spots on the major league staff. If the Brewers don't think he fits in with what they want at the major league level, it only makes sense to let him see what else is available for him. He's still a young guy, I doubt he wants to top out at being a AAA manager. The article says he will be interviewing with an NL Central team. His minor league days were with the Reds, wonder if that will be his new destination.
  16. kramnoj
    I realize Braun is the "franchise" pplayer, but given the offense Hardy has put up this year while playing ss, I think it's fair to call him the either the best player or the MVP of the team , as far as position players go. Braun has 20 more Runs Created than Hardy this year. I don't think the defensive contribution is enough to make up for 2 wins worth of value. But it is reasonably close, with the way that Hardy has stayed strong and Braun has declined. I just think few teams will make defensive shifts unless a player's is defense is so poor it's costing lots of wins. I just think when a team is playoff caliber they tend to make moves that are less risky. IMO, keeping Hall at 3B is more risky than moving Hardy there and bringing up Escobar. In the end I guess it depends on if you think the Brewers should build on this year's success, re-tool, and go for it again in 2009 with largely the same team, or if they should take a step back in 2009 and risk a minor rebuild with the hope for a stronger team in 2010. The Brewers are going to have to re-tool regardless of what their goal is. Their ability to get value out of retooling will depend mostly on what FAs will get, what teams will do in the trade market. Using only the players in the system, if the team moves Escobar to SS, moves Hardy to 3B and makes Hall a super sub, I think they are likely to increase their defense and shouldn't expect to lose offense. If they do lose some offense, it should still be outweighed by the defensive increase.
  17. kramnoj
    You don't trade your best player You are saying that Hardy is the team's best player? Or are you saying he's the best player at the position for them? They have t fix 3B It has been suggested that 3B can be fixed by moving Hardy there. He has the tools to be good there defensively. I think there's a decent chance that Hardy could be the best player the Brewers could put at 3B next year, actually. If you want to move him and he resists because of money, try to find a middle ground for a few years as you suggested. If he still resists, the team has to look at how they want to deploy the talent they have. There are just so many options that could involve, as has been pointed out here. I'm also unsure why you are so confident that Escobar will be traded if Hardy is signed to stay at SS. Escobar could certainly use some seasoning at AAA next year, but depending on how Weeks does next year, Escobar could be the teams best option at 2B in 2010.
  18. kramnoj
    You state this with a lot of certainty. Is this based on things you've heard from the Brewers FO, or just speculation on your part?
  19. kramnoj
    He has trouble, as do most brewers, at moving runners along, getting the run in from 3rd with less than two out. Why do you think this? His numbers this year, with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs, are .400/.429./.667. Now, it's only 21 PA, but your memory of him isn't close to the truth. It is true that he has struck out 5 times in those situations. It sounds like you are focusing far too much on the k's and not remembering his success.
  20. kramnoj
    I think the quest for getting a leadoff hitter can often lead to poor decisions. If you have someone who can embody what you want in a leadoff hitter, that's great. But a team shouldn't find a poor leadoff hitter just to have someone that is a "leadoff hitter". For the Brewers, if you have a decent OBP and you aren't slow, you could leadoff. Your goal is to get on base and be able to score when Braun and/or Fielder hits. You don't want to put someone who is fast and can steal bases but has a poor OBP. I'm not sure where we could add one, unless we dump Cameron and the leadoff hitter plays center. Cameron could leadoff. In his career he's played a season's worth of games leading off and has a .813 OPS
  21. kramnoj
    Fielder this year is 23 in ZR among qualified 1B with a .800 ZR. He was 17th last year with a .813 ZR. 19th with a .804 ZR in 2006. So, yes, he has slipped, but people who study defense say that you need two years of defensive data to equal one year of offensive data (approximately).
  22. kramnoj
    Anyone know what his contract status is? He entered this season with 2.135 years of service time, so he will be arbitration eligible.
  23. kramnoj
    How many of those are intentional because first base is open and a righty is on the hill? Cameron has one IBB this year, and it came in extra innings. He could certainly have been pitched around in the situations you describe.
  24. kramnoj
    Cameron has value as a player but he's not worth $10 million at age 36 even for just one season, especially for a team that is overly righthanded and strikes out a lot. It's easy to say this in a vacuum. It becomes much less clear when you look at the alternatives. Nobody in the system looks ready for 2009, there aren't any attractive FA and it's not clear that there are attractive options in the trade market. If you look at what Cameron provides for this team, and what they would put out there without him, the difference to the team is likely worth the $10 million. To put it another way, I don't think the Brewers could spend $10 million more efficiently in 2009 than to bring Cameron back. Move Hart to CF if you have to and find a LH bat that can hit close to .300 and not strike out 150 times. Hart has not been good defensively in RF this year, there's not much reason to think that he would be even average in CF this year. It used to be the case that his bat would clearly make up for whatever his defense in CF, but his bat has slipped as well. I know Hart to CF has been a popular theme here (one that I used to advocate to make room for LaPorta), but I don't think there's any reason to believe the front office is even considering it. He's striking out at a rate close to what Jose Hernandez did in 2002, and I don't think anyone here thought Jose was worth $10 million. Of course not. $10 million in 2002 is different than $10 million in 2009, especially for baseball and the Brewers.
  25. kramnoj
    The population of players in Major League Baseball continually leaves players on base especially late in the game. Hitters fail more often than they succeed. Let's look at some facts here: Cameron with men on this season is hitting .270/.384/.553. So if you really think Cameron isn't doing well with men on, your bias is clouding your judgment. As far as late in game, that's kind of vague. He has hit well in the 6th, 7th and 9th innings this year. He has performed poorly in the 8th inning (in only 43 ABs) and has done awful in his 9 ABs in extra innings.
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