kramnoj

Bringing up a player for a month and then bringing up a player the next season two months in doesn't cost the team a FA year. If anything, they are basically gaining something close to a full year, because a player has to end a season with 6 full years of service time to be eligible for FA. It would cost them money in Super 2 status, but that's a couple years down the road. I'm not sure we should assume that Escobar will be brought up before September next year (except maybe to cover an injury). He would only be brought up to play, and as long as Hardy starts the year at SS and is healthy, I don't see the Brewers changing anything there in mid-season. Gamel, I could see being called up if the team is relatively happy with whoever they have at 3B and want Gamel to work on defense outside the major league spotlight. If Salome get's a month call up this year, next year and starts the year at catcher in 2010, it won't decrease his time with the Brewers, because as said above, a player needs 6 full years to be a FA.

I guess I am really wondering other then the expierence why all these guys come up. Gord Ash was on 540 the last week or two and said that they didn't want the Brewers getting into a situation where they ran out of players because they didn't bring up enough players. The Brewers don't want to miss the playoffs by one game because they only brought up a few players when the rules will allow you to have 40. Basically the Brewers are buying insurance that will cost them over half a million, but they want to make sure they buy enough insurance. He also mentioned that he is against the September callup rule. thinks it's silly that baseball plays its last month with different rules than the rest of the year. I thought that was interesting. What's the story behind the rule anyways? I guess I should look it up.

Rivera will finish this season with just over two years of service time. He could be a backup catcher for the Brewers for up to the next 4 years if the Brewers wanted.

Looks like there's a Harley street party on Water St Sunday night at 8 PM. You won't see that anywhere else. I recommend getting to the game early on Monday. You should be able to just buy tickets at the counter for Wednesday's game. You might even be able to for Tuesday, though less likely. You can get into MP 1.5 hours before game time, which would allow you to see your team take BP, as I'm sure you know.

In my visits to MP, I think I've seen scalpers every time. I don't know what their price usually is. As far as where to sit, I enjoy the club level tickets. Padded, wider seats and you have access to more choices of food and some bar areas. I don't know what kind of choices you will get with the scalpers. When do you get in town? There is currently a Harley Davidson 105th anniversary going on, but depending on when you get here, it may have mostly wrapped up. As far as other things to do, I guess it depends on what you like. There is an art museum here, but obviously if you live in the New York area, doesn't really compare to what you have access to there. Harley Davidson just opened a museum, that might be fun for you. Brewery tours might be fun, I've never actually been.

ESPN pays Reilly to get people to read him, not for the quality of his product. You reading him to complain about him help justifies their decision.

Craig Counsel has 12 R'sBI in 202 AB. I think if you are going to judge someone by how many RBI they have, you should probably look at how often they come to plate with men on. Counsell only has 89 ABs with men on and only 48 ABs with RISP. It is true that Counsell has performed poorly with men on and with RISP, but it puts things into more perspective when we have more detail and we realize that the sample size we are dealing with is somewhat small.

Reliable veteran? His 4.62 ERA last year was reliable? His career ERA is 4.6. What else would you call a 4.62 ERA from that pitcher, but reliable, to go along with his 200+ IP. He did the job they paid him to do. His ERA+ was 97, a little lower than his career, but close enough to not be a big deal. I'm surprised you or anyone else would still be willing to say he was a good signing. Did the Brewers have someone better than him to be a SP last year? Could they have signed someone else to be able to be a pitcher that has been as consistently average and durable as Suppan by spending less money? Suppan last year contributed to the team's first winning season in 15 years. That meant a lot at the turnstiles last year and it buillt toward the popularity of this team. Suppan is still in the discussion for being in the top 5 SP this year and will presumably be one of the top 5 SP next year. It's possible, maybe even likely that he won't be in 2010, but the Brewers will have benefited from his success before then. Suppan's Wins Added compared to dollars spent won't be good, but they wanted to solidify the rotation, and he achieved that. The Brewers were obviously in a place to overspend because they got such good production from their young position players.

Finally give him a shot? He has had a shot two years running and totally tanked it both times. I mean I agree, the Rangers are in a situation where they have nothing to lose but so far his MO has pretty much been AAAA. It looks like Ennder read Nelson Cruz rather than Brad Nelson.

WOuld a 4yr/$28mil contract be enough? Every market is obviously different, but I found this to be an interesting question and started digging through Cot's to see if I could find similar examples. It looks like Jon Garland signed an extension before his last arby year that bought out 2 years of FA for 3/$29 million. Garland had just put up a 128 ERA+ in 2005, otherwise he hovered around league average previously. So a more accomplished pitcher 3 years ago got almost $10m/year for last arby and 2 FA years. I guess that hypothetical depends on if Bush is more like Braun or Fielder. Is he more interested in security and getting a life-changing deal while giving up earning potential, or does he want to get every dollar he can through arby and then FA? I think your proposal is a reasonable starting point for the Brewers, if they would want to make an offer.

Tbadder wrote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gallardo Bush Parra Suppan McClung Back to sub-500 with this rotation. That's a bit too simplistic. If you look at St Louis this year or the teams in the West, that rotation would project to be similar. Obviously the Brewers would need to improve their offense and defense to try and be a 90 Win team with that rotation, but they should be a team that is a little above .500 and able to compete for the playoffs if things go their way. A player of Hardy's caliber is definitely worth more than the value of Josh Hamilton from a year ago. A year ago Hardy was a player who had missed time over each of the previous 3 seasons and his best season was being a league average hitter, and he was no more than an average SS defensively. Hamilton obviously had his issues, but he was the first pick of the draft, had done well in a few minor league seasons and had put up a 131 OPS+ while playing most of his games in CF. He was obviously a risk, but his ceiling even a year ago was much higher than Hardy's. Hardy could certainly bring a good pitcher in return (Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland), I just think it's unrealistic to think he will get a cheap young front of the line starter if he's the best player coming from the Brewers.

Bush is completing his 4th year of service time, so he is still under team control for 2 years after this. IMO, there isn't a need to extend him now. If he can put up a good 2009, maybe offer to buy out a year or two of FA, but that will depend on everything else with the team. If he can keep putting up league averagish seasons where he has 30+ starts and 180+ IP he is probably going to get a 3-4 year deal for $10m+ per season. Gil Meche has similar performance to Bush, and he got a 5 year $55 mil deal. As with any market, it will largely depend on supply and demand.

Braun's OPS + first two years are 153 and 138. Wright last three years and this year: 139, 133, 150, 141. So Braun's first year, where he destroyed lefties at an unsustainable level is better, but Wright has consistenly delivered like Braun has hit this year.

are #2's that are 3rd best pitcher on their respective staffs, it doesn't take much effort to go around the league and look at the SP rotation for each team. You think that just because a team has a surplus of cheap young talent that they will trade it away? The Hardy led package wouldn't be enough to get either of those two players. This season from Hardy isn't enough to move him from averagish. He is basically average defensively. If he's the best player in a package, he's not good enough to get a #2 cheap pitcher in return. Hamilton had the talent to be a MVP, and it was obviously a good trade. Hardy is not MVP material. Sure a FA pitcher may make the team better next year... what about year 2, 3, and 4? Why rush to fill a hole now that may be inconsequential in the future? Basically that's exactly what a FA pitcher does, it ensures that we'll have 3 pitchers in the 4/5 range locked in for the next 2 years. We already have Suppan and Bush, why add a 3rd pitcher with limited upside for 4 years? Only spend the money to sign a market deal for a pitcher that you feel will be worth it. If you are right, and your young talent progresses faster than expected, you can trade away your surplus veteran pitchers. We aren't locked into Bush. If he isn't worth his salary to the Brewers in a year, trade him or cut him. Furthermore, the Brewers are only a mid market spender if attendence stays over 2 million a year, I'm not willing to bet that every year the Crew is going to draw like they have this year, I don't feel that's realistic. There's no reason to think that this town won't come out to watch a competitive team year after year. One of the ways to keep a team competitive is to sign FAs to bridge the gap when the home grown talent isn't ready. One of the ways to lose fans is to not spend available money and not put the best team on the field that you can. Then you lose the goodwill of the town and have to wait to build it up again. I'm not sure how else to explain my position as I'm unsure if you're grasping the core idea I'm promoting, What makes you think I don't understand it? I just don't agree with the premise, and think that part of your premise is based on unrealistic expectations about getting cheap young talent without giving up anything that hurts. If anything, I think I value cheap talent more, because I'm not eager to trade it away just because there is a surplus in a given year.

and I've yet to see a compelling argument for signing a FA pitcher. The most common point is that the Brewers will have a hole in the rotation they need to fill with someone... which doesn't do it for me. You do it because it will improve your team. It's that simple. The reason that you don't find that compelling is because you are locked into Milwaukee being the smallest market and can't accept that they have mid-market spending power. You don't sign a Dave Bush talent pitcher for big money if you already have 5 of those. But you do sign Suppan if he will immediately be one of the top 5 SP in your rotation and if your budget allows you to do so. Sure, if you can convince a GM to give up a #1 pitcher for an averagish SS and three minor leaguers that won't hurt you to give up, do it. But that doesn't really happen. It doesn't happen because every team knows that a cheap controlled #1 pitcher is extremely valuable, and won't give one up unless getting an incredible return.

I understand that, the money was my point, I'd rather keep players as cheap as possible, adding an extra 3-4 mil in the last year of Arby is pretty significant. You said that you want Gamel as long as possible. You think that the Brewers will be forced to trade Gamel away sometime in the future because he may be making a few million more in one season? if they take a Braun type track with him and he has to spend an extra month in AAA to avoid super 2 status then I'm on the fence pending the impact his ABs have this season. I know I'm naive, but I really don't think Braun was in AAA because of money. I really think they wanted him to work on his defense out of the major league spotlight. If Gamel opens in AAA next year, I don't think it will be because of money either, I think it will be that he really struggled for a signficant time period in the 2nd half of this year, and they want to prove that he can do it at AAA before he is given a spot in the majors. I just don't see this Brewers team putting money ahead of competition.

Just because the team has money to spend, doesn't mean they should spend it foolishly, again that's simply not good value or good business. I completely agree, it's not good to spend money foolishly. I also don't think it is good value to trade away good prospects simply because your team has a surplus at one given time I'll ask a question right back, how is Halladay/Lowe/Burnette/Dempster/etc better value than Shields/Santana/Niemann/etc?. Why is this question adressed to me? I haven't said that is good value. I have said that it is better to spend available money than to trade away limited prospects. If you have top prospects, certainly develop them and retain them. But trading away resources to get them wouldn't be my first option. If Melvin tries to sign a FA SP and doesn't see a good deal, I don't think he should do it just to do it. But it should be the first option to improving the team. The point is that I tend to favor longer term solutions, which is why I hate aquiring rental players for top talent. Sure, who doesn't. Cheap controlled talent is the most valuable resource in the game. But if you trading for it, you are going to pay a high price in talent.

on the one hand he deserves it, but if this makes him a super 2 I'm unsure if it will be worth it. I'd like Gamel around for as long as possible. Super 2 has nothing to do with how long a player is under team control, just how much money they will get. If Gamel helps the team get to the playoffs, it will be worth it (maybe not financially in this year, but in a franchise sense).

By the way, we have no idea if Torres will be back or not, he's a FA and has hinted at retirement as recent as June or July. Cot's has Torres with a 09:$3.75M club option ($0.3M buyout) He may choose to retire, but I don't think he's a FA. I just have a hard time justifying paying someone in the bottom half of the talent pool the 2nd most money on the team. Why do you frame things this way? Putting together a contender shouldn't be about salary justice, it should be done by maximizing resources to get the most talent on the field. Money is basically a renewable resource for MLB teams these days. The talent that will be needed to get a quality SP is not. I would much rather spend money to improve the team in the offseason and keep prospects to develop or to acquire talent during the season for a drive or to cover for injuries. The other thing is that you have a budget to spend, you might as well use it as best you can to field the best team you can.

I know Kapps has played all 3 OF positions this year, and has average D, he almost always delivers with clutch hits when needed, and has 150% better plate discipline than Cameron. Why do you think Gabe has better discipline than Cameron, because he strikes out less? Kapler has 10 walks compared to 210 ABs. One standard that I've seen is 1 walk per 10 ABs, so Kapler has about half as many as he should have. Cameron meanwhile has 44 BB compared to 334 AB. So he is doing better than the standard. Just in terms of OBP, Cameron is doing better than Kapler, .337 to .332. Cameron Ks a lot, no question, but for the most part a K isn't more damaging than a regular out. I like Kapler alot, but he has never been this good. I read a comment from a Red Sox fan elsewhere that Kapler's bat is faster this year, and it may be because he has actually slimmed down a little, gained a little flexibilty. I hope he does come back next year as the super OF sub, but he is not starting material. Even if he has found a perfect form this season, it will be difficult to regain that next season.

but I was speaking of the year after, when he would be coming "hopefully" off of a good season. Is this affecting your choice to bring him back in 2009, whether or not he might be worth draft picks in 2010? I'm guessing that the Brewers bring him back in 2009, and then hope that one of Cain or Brantley is ready to take over in 2010.

The question becomes, is Cameron worth his salary? His defense has been a revelation, and if he continues to produce, he may elicit some picks, though we would also run the risk of him accepting and having to pay him a comparable salary to his $10mil. It sounds like you are talking about Cameron being arb eligible. The Brewers have a club option, either they pick it up or they don't and he becomes a FA. Blalock has certainly had some good years, but he's had some stinkers too. He might be good if the price is right, but I would think the Brewers have a greater need in shoring up the pitching staff, whether that is a SP or a couple of RP. I would keep Weeks one more year, but I would have a utility player that wouldn't kill the team if Weeks has one of his DL trips.

What drives me nuts about Cameron's bat at the plate is his inability to get hits with runner's on and his solo homers. It would be nice if he would do that with runners on. Cameron has 22 HR, 9 of which have come with runners on scoring position. Hi 13 solo HR have come in 210 AB or 1 in 16 AB. His 9 HR with men on have come in 121 AB, or one in 13 AB. If you look at numbers without context, you won't be likely to have complete understanding of what is going on. As far as getting hits with runners on, his OPS with runners on is 958, with bases empty is 790. He is a decent defender but no matter how you add up those plays, they are ones that cost us games. Cameron's ZR has him tied for 10th in the majors among CF. Nobody is disputing that he has had bad plays that have contributed to Brewers losses, but he has made more good plays than bad.

I was noticing that Hinske had played 3B for a couple of years and was wondering if he would be a good pickup to be a super corner sub. Then I checked his ZR and saw that he was at .722. Not good, there is a reason he's not playng there anymore. I agree that Branyan would be better, but it just seems that Yost doesn't like his approach.

As to his splits, 2007 Home 3.51 Away 4.19 2006 Home 3.18 Away 4.13 You previously said that Lowe can't pitch away from Ravine. Is it your belief that ERAs of 4.19 and 4.13 is representative of someone who can't pitch? You could have easily said that Lowe benefits from his home park and a Brewer fan shouldn't expect to see Lowe put up an ERA below 4 in a Brewers uniform. I remember someone writing an article that before he signed that Lowe would benefit more than most from pitching for the Dodgers, and he has certainly done well there. I assume some team is going to be more desparate than the Brewers and offer more money and years than the Brewers will, but I think he would be worth a look-see.