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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    And if these callups aren't going to be used, they shouldn't be there. Most of them still fall under the prospect label, and I don't want September games being decided by prospects with little to no MLB experience, not when winning or losing can affect a playoff birth. The reason the callups are there is for the small chance of an extra inning game where you use up all your position players and relievers and have to have relief pitchers bat and position players bring out their knuckle ball they throw for fun. The front office didn't want to lose a 15 inning game because they didn't bring up enough players when they were allowed to have more than 25.
  2. kramnoj
    I just looked and Fielder is hitting .233 this year with RISP, .180 with RISP and two outs. Not good. His OBP with RISP is .374 and .414 with RISP and two outs. Are you ignoring that, or just don't think that Prince should be walking in those situations?
  3. kramnoj
    MLB's 250,000 HR was hit tonight. I would post who did it, but I don't know if it will pass the profanity filter. Instead, I'll just link baseball-reference's home page, which has been keeping track of it: http://www.baseball-reference.com/
  4. kramnoj
    Anyone that truly believes that the FIRST Packers game is more important then the ANY Brewers game at this point in the season has absolutely NO idea about baseball and the importance of Sept. I think that most people that follow baseball know that a game in September means the same as a game played any other month of the championship season. They would also understand that the first game of the season for the Packers is as important as a game played any other month during the regular season. It's really simple math.
  5. kramnoj
    How many people committed to watching the Packers would be watching the Brewers if it was CC starting instead? Just a curious hypothetical.
  6. kramnoj
    If you've followed the minor league forum, there is plenty of 'hype' around Gamel. There should be plenty of hype around Gamel. There was certainly higher expectations (or maybe hope) when he was destroying the ball a few months ago. Is there someone now that is saying that they expect Gamel to hit 30 HR next year? Also, in regards to getting stronger have you seen Gamel ever play? He's clearly small compared to most MLB players and like most players over time 'fill in'. I've seen snippets. He looks good to me. I would definitely dispute that he is clearly small compared to most MLB players. Braun isn't a huge guy and he has plenty of HR power. I'm not saying he needs to be McGwire big, but he clearly has the frame to put on 10 - 15 pounds. You previously said "he needs to bulk up and get stronger. That is different than saying he has the frame to grow, which as you said is fairly common for players in their early-mid twenties. Maybe you didn't intend the word need to be so strong, but that seemed like you were saying that he wouldn't be what you thought he should be if he didn't bulk up.
  7. kramnoj
    A side note on Gamel. I know we're all excited about his first half in Huntsville and I'm in the camp that he should start a couple of games before the season ends, but his bat is not going to be a 25 - 30 HR bat in the majors for a few years. He needs to bulk up and get stronger, which he will. I don't understand this. Why should anyone be expecting Gamel to hit 30 HR, that they need to be told not to expect it? You're right, this is his season high of 20 HR, we shouldn't expect him to hit 30 HR next year. Would you be unsatisfied with Gamel if he didn't hit 30 HR next year? the zMLE of Gamel's year this year is .295/.345/.472 with about 21 HR and 39 doubles over a 162 game pace. You say he needs to bulk up and get stronger. Are you saying he needs to do that to hit 30 HR, or that if he doesn't hit 30 HR, he won't be a good option at 3B? IMO, he shouldn't bulk up if he wants to stay at 3B.
  8. kramnoj
    If I'm at the stadium and on my way home, I usually listen to 620, first. Then I'll go back and forth between 540 and 1250 during commercial breaks. If I'm at home, I just watch FSN and fast forward through the instructional on field stuff. I like Drew Olson on 540, so I'll listen to him more than most. I haven't listed to 1250 enough to distinguish between the hosts. Too many times the callers seem like Clones, and that doesn't do anything for me.
  9. kramnoj
    So is a simulated game like an actual game where he's throwing all his pitches how he normally would in an actual game or is it basically just throwing BP? I was going to post a somewhat educated guess, then I decided to Google and see what I found. Here is the first link that I saw: http://www.slate.com/id/2121262/ Basically, it is what it sounds like. Hitters face the pitcher, although there aren't any fielders. The catcher or a coach calls balls and strikes and one of them says what happens when a ball is put in play (out, single, etc). Once the pitcher records three outs, he goes and sits in the dugout for what half an inning usually takes (in the linked article, it so happned that Prior and Wood needed to pitch a sim game, I think normally it's just one pitcher and they just take a break for 15 minutes or so).
  10. kramnoj
    One-Run Games Split W L RS RA WP One Run 25 11 148 134 .694 from http://www.baseball-refer...eams/MIL/2008_sched.shtml
  11. kramnoj
    That 2 out RISP line is kinda crazy. It's only 50 ABs, so we're in that small sample size alert. He has 9 hits in those 50 ABs, 16 BBs (8 Intentional) and 4 HBP! Those 9 hits include 6 XBH, including one of his triples. So, yeah, it doesn't look like he's up there to just get a hit. He waits for his pitch to hit and gets good wood on the ones that don't become outs.
  12. kramnoj
    http://www.baseball-refer...gi?n1=fieldpr01&year=2008 is a link to B-Ref's splits page for Prince for 2008. Some people are a fan of WPA, and in high leverage situations, Prince has a 1.200 OPS in 76 such ABs. I don't know which stats you will consider clutch, but just glancing through all the situations, it looks like his OBP is higher in quite a few cases that people call clutch. Some people think a slugger should extend their strike zone in such situations and not be happy to take a walk (Frank Thomas was criticized for being too comfortable with a walk). Just a guess, but I imagine that someone who thinks Prince hasn't peformed well is probably not happy with him walking in those situations.
  13. kramnoj
    Sure but would the games that preceed that series be any less meaningful if one of the opponenents were Baltimore, rather than Cincinatti and Pittsburgh? In the standings? No, of course not, as I've already said. I'm presenting the argument that others have made that IL is bad, but it's acceptable in the middle of the year and would be unacceptable in September "when games count". There's enough resistance there that I don't think Selig will move to change until there is motivation to (say a season where the AL West Division champ has a below .500 record and the third team in the NL Central has the third best record in the division). If they ever expanded to 32 teams, I would not be in favor of 4 divisions in each league. The chance that a bad team makes the playoffs and a good team misses it increases in scenarios like that. I would prever two divisions in each league with two wild cards in each league.
  14. kramnoj
    If you dig through this thread: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=14856 you'll see a few people with ticket packages talk about their tickets. Are you asking about people who are getting ticket packages, or the seats that will be available by lottery? If I understand it correctly, those won't be known until people that have options to buy tickets will have made their choices.
  15. kramnoj
    I don't see the theory that the X amount of pounds he gained cost him 75 SLG points as plausible. Maybe it's one small factor but there are countless other factors to consider. Nobody in this thread has said that his weight has cost him 75 points in slugging. Nobody has really come close to saying that. One poster said that it has reduced his ability as a player, but not as a hitter. I believe it has had a minor effect on doubles and another said it may have some effect, but difficult to quantify.
  16. kramnoj
    The issue isn't that there would be more IL games. The issue is that you would be playing IL in the last month of the season, when teams are chasing playoff spots. Obviously, a game in July matters the same as a game in September, but there are those who think that September baseball is different, and they would not allow this to occur. As it is now, the schedule tries to have division games to end the season, because the possible dramatic swings feel so much more important as the season comes to a close. Right now that last 3 game series against the Cubs doesn't look like it will mean much. But with a few games swing over the next month it could, and even though there isn't a huge advantage of being a division winner over a WC winner, I'm sure there are plenty of Brewer fans that would love to see a Division banner hanging in MP next year (well, as a consolation if they didn't win the WS). The point being that a series against random IL opponent wouldn't have quite the same impact at the end of the season.
  17. kramnoj
    Prince is behind had 35 doubles last season and he currently has 21 doubles this year. I doubt his weight has really been a problem for him getting doubles. If Prince only hit 21 doubles all year then I would say this is correct but he will end up with about 30 doubles this year.Why do you think that 30% of his doubles will occur in the last 17% of the season? My opinion isn't just looking at BRef, in my observation I've seen Prince get thrown out at 2B when I think a lighter Prince would have made it last year. It won't have a huge impact on his slugging percentage, but I think it has had some. Edit: "I have no idea why but feel that using his (presumed) weight gain as an explanation is terribly implausible. Plenty of big guys had no problem keeping their raw power and it's not like Prince has gained much weight from last year, anyway." Prince isn't just big. He's obese, he has rolls of fat at the back of his neck. How can he not be slower, which would have an impact on his ability to leg out a double?
  18. kramnoj
    I'm not sure I follow. A player has to have 6 full years of service time at the end of a season to be a FA. In the case you are describing, Gamel enters 2010 with only two months of service and still has to play 6 full years to get FA. Unless you meant something else, the Brewers only loss in your scenario is that Gamel disappoints them in 2009.
  19. kramnoj
    as the only thing it might affect is super 2 status and then only if a player is called up before June. That's the common experience, but that's not the actual criteria. From the MLBPA website: http://mlbplayers.mlb.com.../info/faq.jsp#arbitration "A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season."
  20. kramnoj
    I thought I'd send Tom Haudricourt an email asking what he knew. I certainly wouldn't consider him a rules expert, but I thought it would be interesting to see what his response would be. To my shock, he already answered me! I sent it at 1:50 today and he answered at 2:48 (CT). Anyway, he is another of those who doesn't think September callups get service time. I'll be curious if he pursues this in the next couple of days. He just put up a blog about 10 players getting called up and I didn't see the issue addressed there.
  21. kramnoj
    The run environments between Arizona and Toronto matter. Eckstein's OPS+ is 13 points higher than Ojeda's this year. That's not nothing. I'm guessing the D-Backs are going for it in a similar way to the Brewers. They could be very dangerous in the playoffs with that rotation, and they probably aren't counting on RJ being this good or durable at 45 next year.
  22. kramnoj
    Why did the DBacks pursue Eckstein? I know Phillips is hurt, but I can't they get equal or greater production from the their in-house options (Augie Ojeda & Chris Burke)? Ojeda has had one "season" which consisted of 59 ABs 4 years ago in which he's been better thank Eckstein. Burke did have good numbers two years ago, but his OPS+ this year is 50! and was 72 last year. Eckstein has no power and he is surely overrated by many, but he is actually a decent SS. By Zone Rating he was the best SS in the majors in 2003 and since has been average to top 5. He's not likely to have a huge impact over a month, but he is certainly better than those options.
  23. kramnoj
    I think if they had kept Sarfate around as the long guy and kept Stetter/Dillard around they could've easily saved the Gagne, Mota, and possibly Riske mistakes. Mota and Riske have performed better than Dillard this season. Gagne was obviously a high gamble, but one the team felt they had to make. They didn't want to go into the season with Turnbow as the closer (smart thinking) and couldn't have expected this level of performance from Torres. Seriously, I had no idea that this was his best year by ERA+ until I just looked. It was 80 last year! Gagne is only on the roster because of his contract and I'm sure Mark and Doug will have a talk about that. The Brewers wouldn't have someone pitching the 8th inning if they didn't think he could get guys out. What possible benefit do you think will come with a Mark Doug talk? Don't you think Mark signed off on this move, and was aware of the risk involved? The Brewers biggest weakness in the offseason was bullpen, and the Brewers got the guy who had the best history as a closer. They knew it could be an expensive failure, but they weren't going to do nothing just because it may not work. I'm fairly confident in speculating that the money spent on the bullpen will decrease next year, as the Brewers will have to spend more money to keep the same position players. In regards to Bateman, he certainly looks like somebody who should be in the mix for getting a chance to be in the 2009 BP.
  24. kramnoj
    I didn't expect 50 homers again but I don't think it should be unrealistic for a first baseman as big as him to slug at least .525. Only 4 1B right now are slugging .525 (Miguel Cabrera is close at .523). It should also be noted that the run environment is the lowest its been since Prince has been up. Per BRef, the average league slugging in MP this year is .428, it was .438 last year and .444 two years ago. At this point, Prince's bulk isn't beneficial to him. In fact, it probably reduces his slugging a bit because his slower speed will result in less doubles.
  25. kramnoj
    TLB, the selected portion that you are quoting doesn't mention people called up in September on the 40 man roster. It says they earn service time while on the active 25 man roster. It may be a myth that September callups don't get service time, but that portion doesn't really address it. I looked in the CBA to see what I find. Here is the relevant portion from page 94 of the CBA: "(1) One full day of Major League service will be credited for each day of the championship season a Player is on a Major League Club's Active List. A total of 172 days of Major League credited service will constitute one full year of credited service. A Player may not be credited with more than one year of credited service, 172 days, in one championship season. Major League service will be computed commencing with the date of the first regularly scheduled championship season game, through and including the date of the last regularly scheduled championship season game. This rule shall apply uniformly to all Players and all Clubs notwithstanding differences in a particular Club's schedule." The only possible ambiguity is what the "Active List" means. It really isn't defined anywhere else that I saw.
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