mletto157
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Everything posted by mletto157
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It's probably because he was used to pinch hit earlier in the year... that's probably what irritated it in the first place! -
If there is one thing in baseball that I can say is not predicated on luck for pitchers, its giving up home runs and walking batters. Homeruns are most definitely luck dependent (to a point I guess). The HR/FB ratio of a pitcher can change so much in a one years worth of stats. Most pitchers will average our around 10-11% over their careers... so if one year they are at like 3% do you think they just pitched extremely well that year in "limiting opponents homeruns" or do you think it was lucky? How about vise versa... if said pitcher has a ratio of 20+% on the year... was he just extremely bad at keeping the ball in the ballpark that year, or was he just extrmely unlucky? The answer is most likely that he was just lucky or unlucky. Many studies have been done to look at pitchers in those extremes one year and then see what happened the next year. Almost to a man, all of them revertec back to the mean (about 10-11%). Is this because the ones that really limited their opponents homeruns somehow forgot how to do that the next year? Or the pitchers that gave up a bunch of homeruns the first year somehow figured out how to limit them the next year? No, it's not. It's because that is an extremely luck-driven statistic.
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Backupcatchers - for someone who postson this board as much as you, you sure seem quick to throw out opinions as facts without doing any research at all... do you just not like Gamel?
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Agreed bruce, and as others have pointed out, all the stats agree with you too. It seems like HiAndTight just doesn't really like 3TO all that much... and while it is perfectly fine to not like someone; you can't just make up blanket statements that are completely false to try and validate your opinion with them. Just say you don't like The Manyan as a player and move on.
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That article was satire (like most of his writing). He's not trying to be factually accurate or anything like that. It's ridiculously sarcastic and just for entertainment, really.
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Thanks casey, and thanks TLB for the clarification.
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Some of the things Macha says really bug me
mletto157 replied to logan82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Reporter: What do you think about Lucroy? Macha: He's a... he's sort of what... he's what I call an empty cup" Pitcher vs. batter matchup data is practically worthless. At the very least I would lump all RH pitchers and LH pitchers together use that to judge who to play and how they fair, those stats are readily available. If you wanted to break them down further you could use like hard/soft throwing RH or LH pitchers. And even further, fastball/change pitchers, etc... But even now you're getting into pretty small samples with young-ish guys... -
but you have to wonder if there really was something to the "better defense equals better results" argument Yeah, there's definitely something to it. An average pitcher on a good defensive team can be above average. An average pitcher on a bad defensive team can be below average. These will be even more extreme for a contact pitcher. However, Suppan still won't keep up that ERA; even with that good defense. He'll be better than he was in Milwaukee... but he's still far worse than that ERA shows. Plus he's wearing out the bullpen with every start. Gotta love that!
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This was posted in a different thread... and it is looking at the season's worth of stats, not just the last 5 starts... but it's worth noting that these stats are a much better way of judging the pitchers true talent, and probable results going forward (FIP & better yet xFIP). Gallardo - 2.97 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 2.56 ERA Parra - 1.77 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 4.37 ERA Narveson - 4.19 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.87 ERA Davis - 4.67 FIP, 4.50 xFIP, 7.56 ERA Bush - 5.14 FIP, 5.24 xFIP, 4.56 ERA Wolf - 6.04 FIP, 5.39 xFIP, 4.92 ERA Parra has been the 2nd best pitcher on our teamto date; only following Gallardo. And actually it's a lot closer on here than his ERA suggests. If we really wanted to have the best starting staff for the rest of this year, we would take Wolf or Bush out in favor of Davis. Bush has gotten very lucky and if he continues to pitch the same regression is probable. Even Wolf, with as bad as he's been, has been lucky and should probably be doing worse. Davis has pitched about normal relative to his career, but has gotten very UNlucky in contrast - a regression should also be expected with him. Since Wolf is signed through next year, it would probably be in the Brewers best interest to leave him in there and hope he can impove so we can see what we have in him. Bush is the most expendable and hopefully should be the one moved out of the rotation. (edit: added link to words "different thread" --1992)
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As much as all of that makes sense... especially seeing as it probably won't make that much of a difference for the rest of this season anyway. I really don't think Dave Bush has much trade value at all. Other teams can also see he has a FIP and xFIP that are both extremely high... his good ERA has mostly been a result of luck and shouldn't be expected going forward if he continues to pitch the same.
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I would love to have 3TO back in Milwaukee playing 1B if we dealt Fielder. Especially if we can get him cheap!
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Gallardo - 2.97 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 2.56 ERA Parra - 1.77 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 4.37 ERA These two lines amaze me. Practically the same xFIP, but almost a 2 run difference in actual ERA - and Parra's even been really lucky with the HR as evidenced by his FIP. If they remove him from the rotation in favor of DD, I might puke.
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No thanks to Hart before Braun or Fielder. The best thing about having Gomez #9 is it'll act as another lead-off hitter (if he gets on) for our best hitters. Then you put Hart at #3? I'd be up for maybe even Braun/Fielder at #2/3 with Hart/McGehee after them just to get the a few more AB in the season. Actually what I'd really prefer is having Braun at #2, Weeks at #3, Fielder at #4... but we have no one to take Weeks spot atop the lineup who will get on base at a decent clip.
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Thanks logan. Mods, you can lock this one if you like.
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Didn't notice this topic was here and started a new one... but this is what I wrote... thoughts? Has anyone else noticed that the Brewers pitching has suddenly gotten better with the promotion of Lucroy to the starting catcher? All of a sudden the Brewers are having 0-2 walks a game instead of the 4-6 they were getting before? I'm actually not sure if this is a coincidence. Since he's been up I've noticed our pitchers consistently getting more balls counted as strikes. I've started to watch his framing of the pitches and it's pretty awesome. With many catchers you see them catch the ball and move their glove to the strike zone as they are trying to frame the pitch to make it look like a strike. With Jonathan, he almost starts moving his glove from off the strike zone and continues to move it for a split second after he catches it before it stops. When watching in full speed it literally looks like he moved it to the strike zone to catch the ball and hence gets that ball called a strike. Every game when they show the strike-zone tracker on called strike threes, many of the pitches are out of the zone and Lucroy makes them look like strikes. It's really not until the replay that you even notice they were balls. I was just curious if anyone else has noticed this as well. Also, if there are any statistics to support what I've been seeing? I can't check at work since sports sites are blocked (yet I still have access to Brewerfan forums, thank God!).
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Has anyone else noticed that the Brewers pitching has suddenly gotten better with the promotion of Lucroy to the starting catcher? All of a sudden the Brewers are having 0-2 walks a game instead of the 4-6 they were getting before? I'm actually not sure if this is a coincidence. Since he's been up I've noticed our pitchers consistently getting more balls counted as strikes. I've started to watch his framing of the pitches and it's pretty awesome. With many catchers you see them catch the ball and move their glove to the strike zone as they are trying to frame the pitch to make it look like a strike. With Jonathan, he almost starts moving his glove from off the strike zone and continues to move it for a split second after he catches it before it stops. When watching in full speed it literally looks like he moved it to the strike zone to catch the ball and hence gets that ball called a strike. Every game when they show the strike-zone tracker on called strike threes, many of the pitches are out of the zone and Lucroy makes them look like strikes. It's really not until the replay that you even notice they were balls. I was just curious if anyone else has noticed this as well. Also, if there are any statistics to support what I've been seeing? I can't check at work since sports sites are blocked (yet I still have access to Brewerfan forums, thank God!).
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No one complained when Narveson was having the best outing of his career with a shutout after the 8th inning, slightly over 100 pitches, and gets taken out to let Axford close it down. I would have to assume that if Macha chose to do this same thing with Gallardo a couple days ago we would have the same result. A win, and no one real upset. It's not like he was going for the perfect game, or a no-hitter anymore. I'm sure Gallardo would have been OK with getting taken out in that scenario. However, I also really don't see much harm... as others have said, he was pretty much cruising through the game. All-in-all I don't think there's much to complain about in either point of view. The problem only comes up if you leave Gallardo in and he gets hurt, or if you take him out and your BP loses the game.
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Agreed. The manager can't wish someone to be a good defender. I can't think of a single example of someone who was a poor defender (spanning multiple years) getting a different manager and becoming instantly better (and staying better, not just one lucky year). Nor can I think of the reverse; someone that has a track record of being a good defender and getting worse overnight because of a different manager (not because of getting old). EDIT - And as Ennder pointed out, the focus of our organization when these players were drafted was getting players that would draw attention and get fans to the games. Offense does that. Fans love offense, and they especially love homeruns.
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Sure... it proves in the last 10 years the Brewers are 23-34 vs the Twins. It proves that our memories are very biased and even though the Twins have been quite a bit better, the Brewers have won a number of series vs them in recent years.
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All Russ was trying to say is for some reason people just don't like to believe in luck... I don't know why that is, but everyone likes to believe someone is in control of a given outcome; whether it's at the blackjack table or in a baseball game. The fact is if you took the time to look around the league at different splits, home/away, grass/turf, night/day, empty bases/men on/RISP/late & close... there will be a TON of randomly high splits. And in 90+% of those cases it is just random dumb luck.
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Unless you are playing with friends at your own house, I've never seen a blackjack game with only 4 aces...
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That's just crazy talk.
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You guys do know that he will look better with the Cardinals, right? There's really no question about it. It's not because Duncan is a miracle worker though... it's because Suppan is a contact pitcher and he isn't nearly as bad as his numbers look this season. Our defense is horrendous, making any contact pitcher worthless to us. The Cardinals have always stressed defense, and are generally very good in that aspect of the game. It is for this reason, and this reason alone that Jeff Suppan will look better with the Cardinals. He will be exactly the same pitcher, with exactly the same peripherals... but his ERA will reflect those peripherals and be in the mid to upper 4's like they should be.
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I was wondering Is Braun playing Hurt?
mletto157 replied to brewmann04's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Eh, he's swinging plenty hard and doesn't look like he's in pain. He's just not seeing anything right now. Swinging at terrible pitches and letting the good ones blow by him. He has looked bad, but it sure doesn't look like injury. -
Tommy Leach 6 HR Seems a little low to lead the league, hey?
