pete

I wouldn't read that comment as meaning Krod won't be back, just that Boras is using his usual negotiating strategy. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays it to the end, gets a so-so 1 year offer and then asks the Brewers whether they'd be interested. Personally, I hope he ends up back here. Ending any chance to get Papelbon would just be a plus.

You're talking about Bryant the way everyone talked about Baez last season who has a good shot of playing in AAA at least to start this season. There's a fair number of people who think Bryant ends up in LF as well. Besides Baez, you're talking about Russell skipping AAA. Do you think they trade for La Stella as a backup 2B? Can he play anywhere else? Soler has 89 ABs. Yeah he had a hot start. And then he cooled off. Fowler typically plays about 2/3 of a season as well. And you're assuming that Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks will repeat their seasons and that Hammel was a lesser pitcher because he was in Oakland. You're also touting guys like Doubront and Wada. I wouldn't be shocked if Schwarber is up later in the season, but I'd be shocked if Almora is. I think they're about an 80 win team.

If a 33 percent K rate and an OBP of .254 is better than expected, he should have been kept at AAA. 89.5 for a FB isn't a hard thrower, but I don't think expecting more than Hendricks makes me a homer.

An interesting nugget from Tom H. on the JS blog regarding KRod: “We’re thinking about it,” said Melvin. “We haven’t been given any indication what he wants.” Maybe I shouldn't be surprised by that but I am. Boras is a trip.

Alcantara was pretty bad last season. If they keep him up, he'll probably get a fair number of at bats as the super utility but if he doesn't I'll bet he ends up back in the minors before long. I'd guess Almora is 2 seasons away. Fowler is one season... for 9.5 million! My guess is they start Baez in AAA. My understanding is they get another year of control of Bryant if he spends a few weeks in the minors? If I'm right, I think that's pretty certain. Russell isn't ready. I wouldn't be surprised if La Stella is basically the starting 2B. ST probably decides things, but again a guess, but if Olt is serviceable I think they'd use him in the hope that he'd have some trade value. All in all, there seems to be a high value on OBP and left handedness. With Coghlan, Rizzo and Montero they can use an everyday lineup with 5 LHers. Projecting the starting pitchers is pretty tough I think. Lester is solid, Arrieta was great but its one season although I wouldn't be surprised if with health and maturing he's TOR or near it going forward. Hammel is good and hopefully doesn't dominate the Brewers again. Hendriks... I don't know. I'd guess he turns out to be a BORP but maybe not. I sure don't see Fiers as his equivalent. And for me Lohse isn't best on the staff. But getting back to the Cubs/Fowler, given how right handed the NL Central is I can see them doing well, but I think it'll be tough for them to get past .500. Maybe that's good enough so that with breaks they're in the race. But Fowler and Hammel are going to be gone over the next couple seasons. They also assume that because their young bullpen was really good that that's what they'll have going forward. Where can I bet against that? The fanbase and the media are feverish, but they've got plenty of challenges going forward.

Hellweg did look terrified on the mound. Maybe it is a crazy idea to think of him as a closer when the exact opposite is needed. But I do wonder how hard he would throw as a reliever. What if he just concentrated on 2 pitches - just get those down and then run him out in the 6th a few times and maybe he clicks. I do think that its wise to get him to be a starter, but maybe he transitions to the big leagues by succeeding in the bullpen. Okay, end of crazy, meandering thoughts...

Hoffman and Rivera were extremely unique closers featuring extraordinary pitches. They rode those things into their later years. Papelbon is a fastball pitcher who is adapting, pretty well admittedly, but I don't think there is much to draw from the comparison of those 2 to him.

Is it just me, or does anyone think it seems odd that Melvin and Jack Z haven't done any trades?

The trick with deferred payment is estimating true inflation and not the government number. I wonder if MLB would allow a contract that calls for payment tied to the price of gold. The flip side of the Scherzer contract is the up front money. I think the 50m is paid out at 2 week intervals. I can't conceive that.

I could see a fair number of relievers "overperforming" or rather not matching their xFIP because they don't pitch many innings. Maybe that's because of a lot of exceptional relievers but I'd guess its mostly about randomness. The one number is FIP. Papelbon gave up 73 fly balls as well as 27 line drives, but only 2 home runs. The chances of that happening again are pretty small. The chances of a multiple of that happening are pretty good. Is the estimator doing some normalizing of HR/FB rate, no doubt. But with declining velocity and fewer strike outs, which I doubt Steamer considers (perhaps in a sense through age), things could be worse. He's also doing worse against LH hitters as the division is loading up on them.

It is what's expected based on those other numbers in your quote as well as others I didn't include. He's not a ground ball pitcher even though he's venturing toward soft tosser category. His ERA will rise when more of them sail over the OFs in the 9th. When batters put the ball in play on the field more of them will almost certainly be hits. Here's one estimate by Steamer: 3.41 ERA and 3.67 FIP. How tradeable is that? Maybe he has another great season, but its sure not something to bet on.

Average on balls in play is about 50 points lower than his last SIX YEARS. If only there were someplace to wager against that happening again. HR/9 was .27, the chances that its under twice that is almost nil. I think the only 2 pitchers who are likely to make the team that throw softer are Wooten and Fiers and he might not be all that much harder than Fiers. Yeah, he's getting old, but my counter argument is he's getting old. How tradeable will he be if his ERA goes to about what is expected: 3.4 let's say?

I don't think he would be the best reliever and predicting that he's reliable, well I'd bet against it myself based on the declining velocity and other indicators. And remember, the contract plays. If he turns into a cancer or a grease fire, Melvin or Mark A. or whoever is driving the decisions will run him out until he starts pitching the 7th to get his "stuff" back together. I don't know if this pic is too big or inappropriate so I won't post it, but this is just one incident and he's got a lot of them http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/jonathan-papelbon-crotch-daily-news.jpg

A rebuild? I think they'd have a problem with too many prospects coming in. Lucroy, Gomez, Maldonado, Davis, Gennett, Segura, Braun if he's healthy, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Garza, Kintzer, Smith, Jeffress... heck, even the scraps like Henderson and Wooten will bring back something. Its almost a pretty good little team.

Stark now reporting that "Pap" willing to waive his no trade in return for option year guarantee.

I suppose this could be true or at least that Melvin thinks they have a very limited chance. Its the kind of thing that will probably go unknown unless someone writes a future tell all book. But I'd guess that Melvin thinks they can compete this season

Too much smoke to not think this is pretty certain, but here's Rosenthal less than an hour ago: Papelbon has not been approached about waiving no-trade to #Brewers, per source. Sign that talks are not in advanced stage.

I'd say the chance of this is pretty close to zero. I'm guessing 2 players, maybe Lopez and Reed. Doug will use the word "surplus" in discussing it.

They'll have to pick up his option. For Melvin or maybe Mark A., the contract plays. If he spits up a couple early saves I wonder if there is a reporter in the press corps willing to ask Melvin what it would take for him to move on.

I wonder if Mark A. is in the middle of this.

What a thing to wake up to. I'm hoping this is Passan inflating Melvin checking in with the Phillies, but it so fits with the old Melvin. The talk about being willing to go with closer by committee as a negotiating bluff fits too. Someone hack his phone and fill it with clips of Eric Gagne. Throw in a few of Cordero with the Reds.

The TB GM says that, but they have a pretty good chance of being bad and he describes his attempt as "threading the needle." I doubt he would be churning players if they had a solid chance of contending. You've made pretty clear that you don't think the Brewers have much chance. I hear a lot of people who want to dump Gallardo, Lohse and Aram because they're mediocre. You want to sell them for whatever yet you talk about a quality 3rd base prospect. Gallardo and Lohse together aren't bringing back Joey Gallo or Garin Cecchini. DJ Peterson is expected to move to 1st. The Brewers have a bunch of 3B prospects in the lower levels so I'd think the prospect has to at least be at AA. Who are they trading for? Meanwhile fans of other teams look at Rogers and describe him as a guy who "rakes." Fiers, Gennett and Davis were "projected" as trash, should we keep them? Is Taylor a 4th OF? Is Clark nothing? Jungmann and Wagner won't be as good as Gallardo and Lohse or is it that they won't make it at all? Williams, Goforth, Martin or Blazek won't pitch middle innings? What's the point of trading for more middle reliever prospects? Hellweg and Pena are complete write offs. Reed and Wren can't contribute. If you want to go A's or TB, the obvious player to trade would be Lucroy.

Those highlights make me wish I'd learned Spanish. Mass, you are the Columbo of minor league info. Hey, you don't smoke cigars, drive an old Peugot, have a Basset Hound and wear an old raincoat do you?

Is it quicker for fans to go to US Cellurar than Miller? I've read chatter that its quicker for Cubs fans in the Northern suburbs to go to Miller than Wrigley. Parking is 40 to 50 as well. Regardless, I'm glad they aren't doing it.

I wonder if Hee Haw was inspired by Laugh In. The hillbilly couple with the woman with the blacked out tooth, Roni Stoneman, makes me laugh. Sometimes I'll have it on while I surf the net. When I use the jokes on the little woman she just shakes her head.