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pete

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Everything posted by pete

  1. pete
    It does seem inevitable. I think you're being optimistic about the player return. I'll stick with Devin Williams or Jorge Lopez as my guesses. I actually wouldn't be surprised if it was one of those guys and another significant prospect. The guy who runs the SI fan blog and lectures on how accurate defensive metrics are is pumped up and using the hashtag #championshipseason That makes my brain hurt.
  2. pete
    I don't think there is a writer who always seems to have an agenda as much as Heyman, but here he is: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25040880/papelbon-still-on-table-for-milwaukee-but-theres-gap-over-player-return "word is that the issue with Philly is over the player return, so perhaps the sides are close on the finances of the deal" No other team has been seriously mentioned as a possibility. It seems like they're playing chicken and unfortunately Melvin really wants Papelbon. Amaro is willing to go into the season with him.
  3. pete
    I think Wang looked pretty good in the Arizona Fall League.
  4. pete
    I thought he might be talking about Beane and the A's.
  5. pete
    Teams will burn lefty relievers if Lind is hitting really well, that's a good thing. If they use one early that's advantage Brewers. If Maldonado isn't buried on the bench, like all players, he'll hit better. His stats with regular playing time are pretty good. Compare his bench stats to other pinch hitters and I'd guess they aren't all that different. Plus, who knows, maybe Jimenez, Hector G. or ST invite guy will have a nice season and they'll pinch hit.
  6. pete
    Let it go. Fielder will never be what he was years ago. Chris Davis? Talk about rolling the dice. I'll bet the O at 1st is top 5-7 in baseball (and better than the Rangers) and I'll go with the same for 2nd. You're assuming that Ramirez is likely done, Jimenez is unworthy and Rogers fails as well. Watch out for falling comets. There's a not insignificant chance that Nelson comes close to what Shields does other than total innings and better the following years. So rather than go with that, you want to let another team get that production for 6 years, 3 of them at a half million a year and pay Shields 20+ for 4+ years as well as lose a draft pick.
  7. pete
    Why sign premium free agents to that second contract? Its never a good value. Why would you not play Tyrone Taylor or any of the other choices at a half million a year and instead pay 25 million or whatever for Gomez? If Gomez wasn't a Brewer now, would it be smart to sign him in a couple years rather than go with Taylor or Wren or Reed or whoever? You're also sacrificing the prospect package you'll get if you trade them a year early.
  8. pete
    It would be such a huge risk. I wonder how the workout for the Brewers went. I'd guess there might be a small chance if they felt that he was a near certainty to do well if that's even possible especially if they thought he would fit at 3rd.
  9. pete
    But his glory days were playing supporting cast to Albert http://im.archive.today/6kjn5/cd1f46a8255498fc1fa8017d6ecba9fd2b27f278.jpg Next is a discussion of the green sheet.
  10. pete
    You could be right, but Amaro doesn't seem shy about his asking prices. The Philly media named Jungmann and Lopez. I forget the language they used but my memory is that it read as something like "decent" prospects. I'd guess those names came from someone on the team. If so, I'd imagine Jungmann would be a no chance. Then you're left with Lopez or an alternative like Devin Williams and I bet if Melvin were to be willing to do that, he'd still have to pay 10 million or so for the next 2 years of Papelbon.
  11. pete
    Here's the link: http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/ruben-amaro-jr-things-are-still-alive-jonathan-papelbon-trade-front They want a quality prospect back because he's so good. Talks with the Brewers never stopped. Supposedly he's talking to multiple clubs. That sounds like a technically true bluff. Maybe Toronto and/or another club called to inquire. He's willing to start the season with Papelbon (and Howard).
  12. pete
    There's a bunch of guys in there shorter than I thought. TT was rolling as a starter. I wondered if he warmed up too fast or not enough when he switched to relieving. He seems like a starter to me, but there's nobody in the starting 5 I would take out so... you got me. One or both of the top 100 lists had Cards Kaminsky on it and he's listed as 5'11" in A ball and Marco Gonzalez isn't tall.
  13. pete
    That's one list, but on Law's list I believe Arcia is in the 50s. A counter argument could be that Wisler didn't do well after promotion to AAA although its the nutty West coast PCL. Let Sardinas play in AAA. If he hits well, his value skyrockets. A plus to plus-plus defender, plus-plus runner, natural switch hitting, able to hit for average at the top of a lineup guy with 6 years of control is difficult to estimate especially if its at the deadline.
  14. pete
    Wow, Linus, go back to playing Vince Guaraldi and Beethoven. Spent about 45 minutes getting the little woman's Toyota back in the garage. For some reason a car with low clearance doesn't travel well through snow drifts... huh. How long have Winter storms been named? Also listening to WGN I hear Tom Skilling - guy sure knows a lot - and think Milwaukee. The time factor on my memory unit is not working well. Don't anyone recommend a hard reset.
  15. pete
    I'm not an expert or anything, but if you aren't completely comfortable on your side, try putting a pillow between your knees. The 6 month wait is pretty common. Its part of the reason that medical tourism is booming.
  16. pete
    Well, Preller was assistant GM with the Rangers while Sardinas was there. I could see an argument that Sardinas could be better offensively and defensively.
  17. pete
    I thought Burgos was a fun pitcher to watch. His first career win came against the Cubs and he picked off Chris Denorfia, now of the Cubs, in the WBC. http://m.mlb.com/video/v25721977/itapur-burgos-gets-the-pickoff-in-the-seventh/?c_id=mlb I declare it a good omen!
  18. pete
    I don't see any obvious fits for trade pieces, but you never know how different players are viewed by the Brewers. Gord Ash has been fielding the media inquiries about Cotts. That makes me wonder if Melvin is working on a closer and/or this possible trade.
  19. pete
    NeedMoreFans, my impression is that sleep apnea is treatable, so that could be great news. People who get it treated often think its a great thing and people who don't sometimes even die, sooooo... as your avatar would say WOOHOO. The 6 month thing, I could prattle on but it would be all veering toward political stuff.
  20. pete
    I guess I'm a mix of old and new school thinking on closer. New, I don't think they should spend 8, 9, 10 million a year and hire a guy who will be the best pitcher on the staff, at least without having a Dodgers payroll. You absolutely shouldn't do it if he's teetering toward the Gagne line. Maybe Papelbon has a better chance of being pretty good than bad, but it will be a disaster if he's bad and he has to somehow be acquired from Amaro. Old, while its just 3 outs like every inning, its loaded with drama and pressure. As much as people say that a guy who is really good in the 7th will be just as good in the 9th, I don't believe it. I sure can't say who is in the org that might handle the role well and maybe even flourish. Skills wise, Henderson, Thornburg or Jeffress seem like possibilities. Maybe its crazy, but what if they could get Hellweg down to 2 pitches and he just pounded the zone? There are others like Knebel. There are a lot of people on the forum who know much more than I do about the pitchers in the system who could probably poke holes in some of those suggestions but also suggest others as possible. I am totally okay with a ST competition, but also with Krod coming back. Various posters have valid and legitimate reasons for not wanting him as a choice. He doesn't throw hard and there is personal baggage. But in a sense he's ideal for the role. He's pretty good at it skills wise and he's not going to be knocked down by the pressure or drama. He won't be the best pitcher in the relief corps and I think that's good.
  21. pete
    I don't know. The Cards have Piscotty and Marco Gonzalez in AAA, not a lot of sizzle there and a couple A ball pitchers, one 5'11" and the other projectable in Laws 100 for example. Is Kaminsky so high because he's a 1st round choice? If this was the Brewers system not only would it be 30th, but it would be talked about having regressed from last season. For years the rationalization by Sicklels, Law et al was that yeah they had some nice prospects who could be bench players like Davis or relievers like Thornburg and maybe if things go well, average regulars but there was no high impact talent. Now there's a bunch of it and the rationalization shifts. /biasedcynicalopinionoff I think Reillymcshane does a nice job reviewing possible contributors. I would only disagree by saying that in the event of an injury, some of them might do more than he says. And I guess I would add in some of the legion of relievers floating around down there.
  22. pete
    There's lots of interesting data in the recent articles that include or are about Brewers at Fangraphs. But they seem to make a lot of assumptions and accept them going forward as true. I'd guess that Kranitz, RR, misc Brewers persons or Yo himself would say the change in his pitch selection was as much about not wanting to pitch just 6 innings. That and not wanting to watch balls get laced by him when his straight fastball caught too much plate. But Fangraphs writes something, the other Fangraphs writers repeat it, it radiates out to different sites and forums and before you know it, someone is on MLB tonight talking about how Maddux will return him to his old ways and the Ks are coming back (or something like that).
  23. pete
    Yes, good point he is 34. He's not Mariano Rivera who rode one pitch for a career. He's well into the age when relievers lose their ability to pitch effectively. The loss of velocity is pretty significant and its been going on for years. It means he's going to be giving up more runs. Even if he gains velocity, he's going to give up more HRs. His luck at getting flyballs to fall short was extreme. Again without magic of course. You didn't mention his xFIP. That's not as pretty. But there's one area where he is hugely successful. That's in the ability to help fans dream. Kenny Williams talked about it. Maybe that's part of the strategy. Maybe the loss of monetary resources and "inventory" as Melvin sometimes refers to players he has under contract will be offset by increased ticket sales pre-season as well as publicity so fans can listen to experts talk about their better chances. Of course the downside is huge.
  24. pete
    To me that sounds awful. I'm kind of mystified why people believe that Papelbon is a pretty sure bet to be anything more than an averagish reliever. The way his velocity has been trending, there's a real question whether he or Krod will throw harder. He had an insanely lucky rate of not giving up HRs. If that wasn't brought about by an incantation or animal sacrifice, its almost certainly going to be worse. Nice to have but could do without describes just about everyone on the team or farm. I'd guess there are several players on the team already who would outperform Papelbon in the same role. There are FAs available who are likely to be similar or better. Trading away quality players to get him seems like its more about helping the fans dream than anything else. Maybe that's good business. You're also paying 19 million dollars over 2 years. It means if he sucks he'll continue to pitch. If he's bad how much money should they be willing to just write off? If it means one less extension to a young player is it worth it?
  25. pete
    I've failed to come up with a sense of him as a pitcher from poking around his stats. He wasn't very good last season, but nails the season before. Seems to be slightly better against lefties with the exception of power numbers that tilt the whole thing. I'll guess that there's some up and down pattern that tracks with health and Melvin will have a couple stats to reflect that. The physical was reported as "hands on." I'm picturing them grabbing his leg and jerking it - "did that hurt"? Then harder - "how about that'? Former 2nd round draft choice!
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