bill hAll Star

And I laugh every time Melvin says that. I can't think of many teams that are interested in a one year rental of Prince for $15 million. The big buyers have 2011 stop gaps and can make an offer after 2011. The other clubs probably don't want to give up a ton of pitching for that one year rental of Prince given that they probably can't re-sign him. The whole bidding war is a myth.

Can anyone give me a stat of Edwin Jackson's that makes him look like a valuable pitcher? He can dominate some games but the guy has a 5.16 ERA this year with a 1.50 WHIP? I don't see the White Sox putting that offer in for a one year rental of Prince. EDIT: I see you're talking about this deadline, which boosts the value of Prince but still won't grab that package, even though Jackson has about the same value as Dave Bush.

I'm still at a loss to understand why the Red Sox are being discussed as a Prince suitor. You're Theo Epstein, regarded as one of the top GMs in baseball. Big Papi has proven he'll be a valuable DH for probably another year. Would you rather have: 2011 - Beltre at 3B (having a dominating season, great defender), Youk at 1B, Ortiz at DH with all of your top prospects in tact? After that, make a 180 million dollar offer to Prince after 2011 when Big Papi starts to get even older. OR Give up valuable pitching prospects and have to have one of Beltre/Youk/Ortiz/Fielder not in your lineup every single game? And still have to worry about re-signing Prince for $150+ million? Anyways, the other teams in this mythical bidding war: Dodgers: I don't see them as being a suitor. I guess they'd think about Loney + pitching prospects but I think they are happy with Loney because of his plus defense. Just a gut feeling here. Giants: This might be the one team that would definitely put in a bid. Braves: Didn't bring back LaRoche because they have a big 1B prospect in the mix. Rockies: They are still paying Todd Helton a ton and aren't a team that is going to give up younger pitching for a one year rental of Prince. They wouldn't re-sign him if they rented him, so they aren't going to rent him. Yankees: Eh, they're always in the picture, but 1B is already obviously covered and I think they're fine using DH for whichever other all star is banged up especially with their stud catching prospect and Posada on his last legs but still a plus bat. They probably have the same reasoning as the Red Sox. Why not keep the top prospects when you've got a viable solution for 2011 and bid for Fielder when he becomes a free agent? Rangers: Given that they're going to want their young pitching after they most likely to not bring back Cliff Lee, this doesn't make sense for them. The ownership situation would have to drastically change for them to be willing to look into a $15 million rental and the possibility of a $150+ million contract. This is the really annoying thing. This "bidding war" especially for what Melvin wants (MLB pitching) is a massive myth made up by Doug. When you look into it, just as many teams then are going to want him as do now. I'd rather take the value of 1/2 extra year of contract time, that "world series run" desperation, and the fact that we're already out of it to throw in the pot as value instead of the 1 or 2 extra teams that might get into the bidding war.

All he's done is take 5 years to build a team that took a late season miracle to make the playoffs. We were still riding high on youth under arby and rookie deals, and he has flipped that team into a $90 million dollar bottom 10, maybe even bottom 5 in the league team. He's a bad offseason/trading deadline away from making the team another 2-3 year rebuilding project for the next guy that comes in. While that is nice, most other general managers given a long leash and a lot of money with a mid-market team have created a longer buzz than Melvin did.

To me, this is like selling a stock of a new niche company that has been raved about but is struggling to get their product to market. Its current value is $5, but was at $7 because of it's potential to explode. You've already got the king of that market in your portfolio but this other competitor in the niche market if they can market a different alley could blow up to $20 or $30. You've traded it for a stock of a company that does paper mail and document printing solutions. They do not do it at a business enterprise level. Their stock just went from $6 to $7 because they landed a large deal with a company desperate for a quick and cheap solution, but this is not going to be a common thing going forward.

I also agree that you'd have to get probably 4 new pitchers, 3 if you're willing to have a garbage collector in Wolf as your #5. I don't want a half-hearted rebuild. I want one that could quickly work. It goes a little something like this: Deal Fielder and Hart ASAP for the best package of high-ceiling AA guys and maybe a Bumgarner-esque guy in the Prince deal. You'll have enough that 2 of them at least will pan out. Then, you'll have the top 4 of your rotation pitching above league average level for a combined total of less than you were paying Jeff Suppan or Randy Wolf. And it will take shorter than you think for them to get there. Use her boatloads of extra cash to buy Penny/Sheets type signings that could bust but as long as they are healthy can pitch as highly productive pitchers and cost you something like $3 million for a 1 year deal. Personally, in the Greinke scenario, sure, it would be fun to see them try to go for it but I see Hart going back down in productivity, I find McGehee to be almost a negative asset at this point with his defensive awfulness and not-so-great bat at 3rd, Escobar probably won't be a ton better next year, we have one of the worst CF situations in baseball right now and I don't think Cain is going to step in and be the answer right away, and LuCroy is nice but could hit a sophomore wall. All that money we talk about saving on our trash contracts going away will be absorbed by the expensive pitching we've traded for which won't be as good as it could be given our atrocious defense and we won't be able to fill in the gaps for all the guys I just mentioned in this paragraph with the $$$.

Perfectly summing up what I've wanted to say. Well done twirly.

All of us on the "Doug is not smart for waiting for strictly MLB pitching" train don't even bother discussing guys like Bumgarner. Yes, the handful of guys like him are an exception to the rule as already being in the MLB but still being "prospects" and we'd all love to get him. Unfortunately, Doug is a fool if he thinks he can.

Changed for clarity.

It's going to be nearly impossible with the defense we have assembled to make much of a run even with some spare cash and a good but not great pitcher that Doug is waiting for in return next year. Coming into tonight the Yankees had scored 545 runs and we had given up 556 runs to the likes of the Stros and Pirates among others. So now that we've established that it's going to take an entire arsenal of pitching and/or re-establishing the style of play for that to drastically come down, let's also discuss how badly Melvin is mishandling this: What do Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Dan Haren have in common? All of their teams were in the basement or very close to it and knew they were out of it. Very few teams put aces out on the block before the season starts, and if a team like Baltimore (let's say they had an ace) who knows they still have probably another building year to go, know that the ace won't do them any good, and would put one out on the block...would they actually trade for 1 year, 15 million of Prince Fielder in return for that ace? Lee was traded before the year started but that was an exception given that Philly preferred Halladay and again, the rebuilding team, Toronto, didn't get a Prince Fielder-type player in return. If Melvin got a AA kid with a high ceiling this year, we could be talking best case scenario that in the May callup times we'd be getting a Gallardo-esque excitement time when he gets called up and hopefully he'd come through. Worst case scenario is he only pans out to be a cheap #3 or #4 starter. Then again though, those talking about getting Dan Haren, imagining that the Angels decided they'd put him right back on the market for their DH of the future, Haren could continue to be that 4.20 ERA guy and cost us 8 figures most years to keep him. He could revert back to being an ace as well, but that opportunity exists at a much smaller cost and larger quantity in a package of 2-3 AA studs. If Melvin strictly waits for MLB talent and sticks to that in the offseason, we're going to get a Mench/Cordero/Nix type disappointment (no arguments on the whole Cruz thing, which made it even worse). How about we try to get a Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia return instead? (Feliz will be a valuable starter soon and Salty was a bust, but still could be worth something). Anyways, I don't see us even getting many offers at all in the offseason. I can't think of many teams with established MLB pitching that have a need for Prince that would give that established MLB pitching away. If Melvin caves and goes for AA studs this offseason, I'll be a bit happier, but still mad that he wasted some of Fielder's value given that a team won't be in the heat of the race "going for it" to sweeten the package for Prince and to get that 1/2 year extra of contract time. Melvin is mishandling this. Badly. We really need to get these Fielder for established solid MLB pitchers that make upwards of 8 figures and start looking to some high ceiling young kids. I want the best package of talent and that normally doesn't come when asking for instant MLB players in return.

We'd gladly take major league pitching, it's just that 99 times out of 100 a package offered with major league players is going to have a lower ceiling, and most times will have less years under team control. If there was a package around Bumgarner or Hudson or something, sure. If you call that "major league pitching" even though they just got here and haven't reached full potential. As for a package involving a top veteran pitcher, most won't be available, and if they are, they won't be cheap or will be just as close to free agency as Prince.

This goes along with another thread about "how does Attanasio/Melvin see us being competitive in 2011"... but how do you even have a shot in 2011? You either literally strip the farm system bare and essentially forfeit 2012-2014 to get modest pitching upgrades via trade or you have no chance of making that run. The Brewers' opponents (they play the MLB worst Pirates/Astros a lot) have scored more runs than the Yankees have scored. That's pretty pathetic.

Way too easy after you read something like this: Fielder & Hart Are Off The Market By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 29 at 8:23pm CST] The Brewers have decided that they’re too close to contention to sell, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law. An executive from a club that had interest in a Brewers player explained to Law that Milwaukee has changed its approach to Saturday's deadline. That means Prince Fielder and Corey Hart are no longer available to teams seeking power bats.

Whatever Wolf does for us this year is meaningless. Paying a guy that is a #4 starter, more like #5 starter at best $9 million for a team I doubt will contend in 2011 isn't helping our cause. Maybe if things are shuffled around having a guy we can count on to take the ball every 5th day as our #5 starter will be something...just not $9 million of something in 2012. Wolf isn't going to be good here unless he: 1. Does roids. 2. The walls get moved back to emulate Chavez Ravine. 3. We get a miraculously better defense. Fast.

Yeah, I guess it may be impossible at this point too. I had Wolf on my list to look into trading a month ago before his numbers totally fell off the cliff. That said, maybe ask for a mid-level, fairly low-ceiling prospect and we pay the rest of this year and next on Wolf's contract? A team may think of that. They'd get Wolf for 2 1/3 years for $9-$10 mil. To me, I see Gomez being out of baseball within a few years. You're right, I don't know how anyone would trade for him. The only thing he has going is he won't be massively expensive given his low arbitration rake methinks.

I say trade 'em all. Fielder, Hart, Bush, Hoffman, Coffey, Capuano, Villanueva, Hawkins, Riske, Edmonds, Counsell, Inglett.Think I'd look to trade McGehee too, he's been awful defensively at 3B. I hope McGehee isn't the Brewers starting 3B next season. I realize it may be really tough given his contract. But how about Wolf too?

I'll start out with the positives: He is under team control for 4 more years (I believe?). He had low projections this year because his numbers surpassed all minor league career highs. He seems to have slightly proved us wrong. Now I'll get to why I'm asking the question: 1. He is statistically by a wide margin the worst defensive 3B that qualifies in all of baseball this year (UZR). 2. He is really, really slow. 3. He may just be in a slump, but he is now OPSing under that magic number of .800. Given his minor league credentials and the fact that maybe the book is out on him, is it possible that he has pretty much peaked and is now not going to reach that level again? The guy plays a corner spot, one where you expect a plus bat or if not, a strong defensive force. Right now he is neither and a strong liability on defense. I ask this because every time someone slots their 2011 and 2012 projections, McGehee is their 3B guy or at least moved to 1st in a Fielder trade scenario. Granted, his defense would hurt us less at 1st, but I am starting to think he doesn't fit in to our long-term plans. I'd see if I could trade him for an arm with similar issues and see if we can slot that arm into the 4/5 spot in our rotation for a few years. Granted, the current alternative of Gamel might be just as scary given that his defense isn't superb either and we haven't been allowed to see what Gamel officially has because of injury problems and Ken's penchant for rotting youth on the bench, but I think we might be finding out that McGehee isn't the solution at 3rd. Thoughts?

Even though Haren has struggled this year, that is not nearly enough for Haren unless that TBD pitcher is really good. I Know Rivas is a huge prospect. Haren is going to be expensive and Marcum is scary. Had Tommy John and recently skipped a few starts with some elbow issues. I personally would like to take anyone like Haren out of our plans. We need to look 1-2 years down the road with some very young pitchers that we can control for 5-6 years. Ceilings are higher, costs are cheaper.

Nice. The only thing I'd do is talent-wise put Hudson at 4 and Wolf at 5. If we weren't paying Wolf, obviously he'd be out of the lineup. Crawford and Dunn won't come cheap. But good bats are much cheaper than good arms.

That single just bought Cain 5 extra games on the bench.

I think the White Sox were trying to play chicken with the Brewers by putting those reports out there.

The thing for me is that for the rest of 2010, his production is useless. We could put myself out there who would probably put up a .050 OPS and I wouldn't care because the season is done. If he cools down, then you go into the offseason with teams going "see, I knew it" and offer you the package comparable to the low .800 OPS we normally see out of Hart. If he stays hot, you still have 1/2 year less under team control to market to a trade partner this offseason. However, most importantly, you don't have teams saying "well, he may cool down but screw it, we're going for a title in 2010." That is why his value is at its highest now. He's having a career year and some teams will gamble on him keeping that rolling for 3 more months.

We need high K rates. We have quite possibly the worst defense in baseball. I wouldn't be massively opposed, but to me signing him would be just more rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. He might slot as a nice #4 or #5 and at the right value, fine. However, I wouldn't put a ton of money on it happening. One thing to think about is they have a slightly above-average Inge manning the hot corner and we have MLB worst McGehee. More balls in play = worse results.

I'm still wondering how you guys think we're going to make a playoff push in 2011. Even if we have extra money to spend with all this garbage coming off the books, all our arby guys get a raise, diminishing that. All the money in the world, unless all thrown at one ace pitcher that somehow wants to sign with Milwaukee isn't going to bring any sort of decent rotation here. But the key is how do you find a #2, #3, #4, and #5 starter that isn't garbage? I'd say Wolf and Bush if they pitch well are #5, maybe #4s at best. We're not going to go anywhere by signing guys, and I am pretty sure when Melvin does he just looks at ERA and doesn't look at any statistic further than that when trying to pair the pitcher with our awful defense. Personally, we COULD sign Hart, but I would prefer not to. I fear him falling off the cliff statistically and effort-wise seconds after inking the dotted line.

Agreed. Flash forward to July 2011; if Prince and Hart are still on the team then Doug has misplayed his opportunity and he'll HAVE to make a trade. He should listen to any offers this year, but not make a move unless a team blows him away with an offer.The problem is that I have a hard time seeing him get anything better. I would put my life savings on Hart not having anywhere near these numbers at the 2011 deadline, granted, he seems like a guy that will turn it on as hard as possible in a contract year. The idea of 1/2 season of Prince will be appealing, but not as appealing as 1 1/2 seasons. If Melvin sees something remotely good, he needs to pull the trigger. We have no chance to contend with these guys on the roster next year anyways. How we'd build even a moderate pitching staff for 2011 without dealing one of our bats is beyond me. And we all know how it is signing the 2nd and 3rd tier guys to massive contracts to try to patch up the rotation...