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bill hAll Star

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Everything posted by bill hAll Star

  1. bill hAll Star
    To quote trwi7 on another board (going off a tweet), the Royals are the Christian Mingle of baseball. Lots of singles with no scoring.
  2. bill hAll Star
    I get that they're on a pretty even plane, but I wouldn't let Falu's option year deter me from sending him down if it's the right move. If we really lose him for that we can pick another guy out of the under-replacement-level recycling bin.
  3. bill hAll Star
    The Kansas City Royals should be a prime example of why good batting averages, zero power, and a decent OBP (or worse) is not a way to succeed. I'm OK with putting in a singles-only hitter here and there if we have no choice, but it's not something I'd actively acquire.
  4. bill hAll Star
    I wouldn't compare Morris to Gamel personally(and other prospects you mentioned). Morris probably isn't a projected MLB-er. He's a one-trick pony of power and might be a guy that at best flips between AAA and the MLB. One could argue those other guys you mentioned were held down a bit too long. If we had a viable LH 1B option, I wouldn't blame Doug if he never called up Morris. However, I will say that DM should probably just call him up to see what the heck Morris can do in the MLB (I feel like he's going to be a .215/.290/.450 guy) since he almost can't be worse than Overbay. However, I wouldn't say the reason Morris is being held down is because Melvin is babying his prospect as he may have with Peralta, Gamel, etc...rather, I'm not sure Melvin thinks he's good enough to be in the majors.
  5. bill hAll Star
    Gindl has a much better track record in the minors. He's not ideal, but he projects to a guy that has much more power and a .770ish LH platoon split. Of course I'd like to get a LH corner bat from elsewhere in the league, but Gindl can at least hit righties and is preferable, even if in a platoon role/off the bench, than to playing Gennett 75% of the games at 2B.
  6. bill hAll Star
    I'd bet a lot of money that Gennett over his career is closer to a .690 guy than .830. If you put up a .697 OPS as he did last year (yes, I know his splits vs. RHP were better) in the PCL, you aren't magically going to hit over .800 in the majors for a sustained period unless you're some sort of 19 year-old stud prospect that is just realizing his power as he he hits the majors. In terms of who they would replace him with? Weeks. I'd rather sink or swim hoping he can become his old self. Weeks has shown he's been a .750+ guy before. I really don't think Gennett can be that over the long haul. Plus, Weeks did that playing every day, not cherry-picking matchups. This is why I'd keep Herrera over him. Play Weeks at 2B and Herrera can serve as the SS, 2B, 3B(?), CF backup. Use the roster space for Gindl and pick up another corner guy from somewhere for Bianchi's spot.
  7. bill hAll Star
    I'd almost always take the guy with the better batting average in similar OPS'es. That said, Scooter is still having his held up by that hot start last year when guys were throwing it right at him as a "book not out on him" type player. It happens to a lot of good batting average guys that come up. Sprinkle in some luck and you get an overvalued streak. We saw it with Iglesias last year, we are seeing it with Solarte this year, and Scooter had it for a while last year. By mid-2015, if we let him stay up in the majors the whole time, his batting average will probably be in the .270 ballpark for his career with no power and an OBP around .300...it may even drop there by the end of the season. To me, he's second on the chopping block behind Bianchi. Overbay is in a dead heat there. Herrera is a slightly inferior hitter but provides value by being able to sub at multiple positions. Part of my reasoning for wanting to send down Scooter right now is it would trigger to me as a fan that the organization "gets it" and isn't going to plop a .690 1-position platoon hitter in there for 5 more years. I already know that they have minimal feelings for keeping Bianchi or Herrera beyond 2014.
  8. bill hAll Star
    Is this supposed to be in blue? Send down Scooter? huh? Once again, I am shocked at the perception of Scooter. Outside of that hot start that is not backed up by any of his minor league numbers last year, this is the perception of him. He's a .270/.305/.390 guy that is 'OK' on defense, can't play every day because of a platoon situation, and only plays 2B. He's also wasting a roster spot. Those were also his numbers in the minors essentially. In the PCL, you usually subtract .100 or so from the OPS for guys at .900 to project them in the majors. The way Scooter hits, I'd subtract a bit less, but he was around .730-.750 there, so I'll peg him in the .680-.700 range. Maybe if he gets favorable enough platoon games, a shade over .700.
  9. bill hAll Star
    I'd send down Scooter and Bianchi. We can start to make the argument that Scooter is going to be a bit of a wasted roster spot. Maybe Bianchi can stay for now until Ramirez comes back. They need to figure out a left-handed bat at 1B, but I'd bring up Gindl and try to find SOMEBODY else around baseball that I can buy away that can bat from the left side to take Scooter's spot on the roster. Maybe Carp or Nava as we've heard, though we'd prefer somebody that can play 1B. I'd let Herrera be the super-utility guy and load up on as much LH bench power as we can get. To me, Scooter has the least value and should be sent down. In a platoon role, maybe his OPS is .20-.30 points higher than Herrera, but he's still in the range of .700, and I feel like he'll go south of there.
  10. bill hAll Star
    If we're going to use extremely small sample sizes to judge what a player is, why not use last year when he posted an .834 OPS while he wasn't platooning? Or who has a .946 OPS in more PA's last year vs RHP'ers than he has total this year. And for the record, while OPS is obviously the best way to judge a players overall ability, I think it's starting to get a LITTLE bit overrated. If Gennett becomes a .300 hitter with a .340 OBP, but slugs just .400, that's just fine for a 2nd basemen. Brandon Phillips, one of the best 2nd basemen during the course of his career has a .748 OPS for his career. We have a lot of minor league data to go off of. He projected to a .700 guy in a platoon as the LH batter. Of course, he could improve and develop a bit, but the point is that this year's .680 is closer to the truth than .900 or whatever he hit last year.
  11. bill hAll Star
    If Scooter is the future at 2B, I'm not too excited about the team's future there. This is Scooter. Sub .700 platooning at one position, that being a position that you don't really want to platoon.
  12. bill hAll Star
    I don't think the Brewers have what it takes to get him. Maybe Nelson + 1 or 2 of their other top 5 prospects. I'm not sure yet that the Blue Jays will be sellers. Nobody is going to run away with the East.
  13. bill hAll Star
    If the Marlins start to fall out of the race without Fernandez, I'd ask about Garrett Jones as well.
  14. bill hAll Star
    Anyone think that once the D-Backs fully feel that they are out of it we could call about Eric Chavez? See if he can play some 1B as well.
  15. bill hAll Star
    I know there is more "unknown" with Morris and Halton but both (especially Halton) do not do it for me. I can't imagine Halton doing well even in a platoon scenario. I think the fact that Doug had minimal interest in bringing up Morris tells us what they think. Power guys don't struggle to get .800 OPS in the PCL and light the world on fire in the majors. Those guys tend to underwhelm. Conversely, there is more "known" about Reynolds. He's on the decline and a player that angers most baseball fans. That said, I think there's a snowflake's chance in you-know-where that he finds his old bat. Maybe he doesn't but he comes for nothing and if he fails we were likely rebuilding anyways. He's not blocking any future mainstay at 1B or 3B.
  16. bill hAll Star
    Against a LHP that wouldn't be as bad as you'd think. You'd see a HR by one of those guys in half of the games.
  17. bill hAll Star
    My thoughts exactly. I think Halton is given a bit too much credit, even in a platoon situation. He seems like a poor man's Brett Pill where a "career year" facing 80% LHP would result in a .700 OPS. Reynolds could surpass that if he finds whatever magic (or juice) he had 3-4 years ago. I don't mind high strikeout guys much but there is a collection of 10-20 mainstays in the league that go beyond that barrier, and Reynolds is one of them. That said, I'd still take him on the cheap. When Aramis inevitably gets hurt, even though he's a bit of a mess on defense, he'll still be better at 3B than bringing back Yuni yet again or playing Francisco there every day, especially against LHP.
  18. bill hAll Star
    Hellweg and Burgos are expendable to me. Burgos has a mid-rotation ceiling that I doubt he even hits and Hellweg, while he can throw gas and has a good ground ball pitch, has had terrible numbers in the minors when projecting to the majors. I get the whole thing of finally trying to stockpile young arms, but I'm not too attached to either of those guys.
  19. bill hAll Star
    No thanks. He is a Red Sox hype guy after a hot rookie start. He's got a pretty weak bat if you take the hype away.
  20. bill hAll Star
    I'm not so sure about that, myself. Admittedly, like most, I've never seen Morris play, but just looking at Francisco's AA/AAA progression gives me a better feeling about him than Morris. When he got to AA/AAA and he started to "get it" at the age of 23 and 24 he was going in the range of .300/.340/.530 and this was not in the PCL. Now, he was more along the lines of .280/.310/.480 in the years before that, but that is what we've seen from Morris outside of his hot AA season. Halton seems like a AAAA guy to me (Morris does to a lesser degree as well and Francisco is a rich-man's AAAA player). Halton could barely crack the .800 mark in the PCL, and he's going in the LHP side of the platoon. Halton reminds me a bit of Brett Pill from a progression standpoint, which doesn't really excite me.
  21. bill hAll Star
    Is Reynolds still out there? I know the defense might not be great and I'm not in love with any of these players, but sign Reynolds and/or Betemit. Between Betemit, Francisco, Reynolds, and Aramis you have plenty of guys that can play 3B (not that well) when Aramis inevitably gets hurt. I'm looking for cheap platoon options. I think Halton and Morris are going to platoon at .740 or so which I'm fine with as somebody that doesn't have Attanasio's arm on my shoulder asking me to win games in 2014. I think if Doug really wants to pay and compete, I'd take those guys and they could maybe platoon for .800 or better and provide 3B depth. I'd also call San Diego about Kyle Blanks to see if they've given up on him being healthy. Maybe he won't stay healthy for the Brewers either but I'd take the chance for a cheap asking price.
  22. bill hAll Star
    This is not really an endorsement for Smoak, but they thought he was finally "getting it" in a few .850ish months this year but he bookended those with poor months to drag himself back down. It's probably too little too late for a guy that just turned 27. That said, I think in Miller Park, if he gets some days off vs. lefties, he could maybe go .800. Not great, but decent.
  23. bill hAll Star
    For those saying people are being too apprehensive to give up on Rickie, I don't think it's really a bunch of apologists being sentimental about him. I think it's more that the guy was an .850 OPS hitter in his prime with defensive athleticism. A reasonable uptick back to norms (knowing that he'll never be the same as he was) may suggest .750. On the other hand, that is basically Gennett's ceiling unless he has a random Pedroia-esque breakout, which is much more the exception than the norm. And for the record, Gennett's defense is that standard, "he makes the easy plays" which I would definitely take over Weeks at this point. The problem is that it'll be overrated a bit. He seems like a total casual fan player. Decent batting average, hits the gaps, doesn't make many errors. He'll be loved by the casual fan but his value to the team will be much less than that. I'll correct myself a bit for calling him a "slap hitter." He's a little better than that, but the sub-.700 OPS we'll likely see will amount to a slap hitter.
  24. bill hAll Star
    Darwin Barney and Jose Iglesias also come to mind as slap hitters that hit for a stretch and had the MLB Network guys calling them stud hitters before their hitting fell off a cliff back to their expected numbers (.650ish OPS). Gennett was right on track there hitting an unreasonable .420/.450/.600 with pitchers throwing it right at him and then dropped down to .290/.310/.390 the last two months, which I think is what his high water season is over his MLB career. If a team gives him a chance (seems like the Brewers will) I think his career best full season is going to be a .700 OPS batting against only righties. He's also not a defensive stud like the aforementioned two players.
  25. bill hAll Star
    Would be totally fine with it if the trade was for Fiers. I'm not so sure Halton is going to be very good in that platoon. He's a reasonable idea and somebody to try for cheap, but he screams AAAA and a guy that still might put up a .690 or .700 OPS at 1B against solely lefties. Of course, Davis may even be worse than that but I'd think there has to be some better way to do it.
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