bill hAll Star

He’d be very helpful in the playoffs when, in a one game wild card series if that’s what we end up with, it’d be him instead of probaly Chacin. Even over the course of a 7 game series he’d probably pitch at least two, possibly three times. And that means less starts for whoever our fourth best starter is. Additionally, he’d be more likely to keep us in the game low scoring games when our offense isn’t producing. One way to win if you aren’t scoring runs is to give up fewer runs. Our rotation has been about average in ERA so there is definitely room for improvement. The fact is Degrom or Syndergaard was definitely improve this team, particularly in the playoffs if we make it. I get that the offense is in a rut but I don’t necessarily think acquiring an average type hitter will be much help either. You’re basically talking about one, maybe two more hits a game, if that. Is that going to cause us to score 3 more runs a game? No way. It will help, but the only way the offense is truly going to get better is if at least some of the players who are struggling get better. We can trade for a Walker or Hairston type player but if the offense is going to turn the corner guys like Braun and Santana and Shaw and Arcia and Pina will have to get better. Also, while I wouldn’t mind seeing Hiura up at the end of the year let’s be hesitant to annoint him as our offensive savior. It’s not often a guy starts the season in A ball and ends up having success in the Major leagues the same year. Hiura is likely more of a next year type fix. If we get into a Wild Card game: 1. I would be happy that I didn't go all-in on this season if that's what ended up happening. I'd be happy to be a WC team but if you told me right now we're gonna be a WC team, I'm standing pat at the deadline. 2. I'd start Hader (or Jeffress depending on the nature of the other team). Either that or I'd start Chacin or Guerra with the assumption that Hader may be coming in in the 2nd inning if there's any trouble. I agree that he's a huge help between a WC game or pitching 2-3 times/series but I'm not sure that I'm ready to weaken the 5 year outlook to go all in this year yet.

That's why, if we think Miller can hack it at SS defensively at least about half of the time, Saladino/Miller (SS) + Villar/Miller (2B) with Perez sprinkled in as the deep bench utility guy might be the best of all worlds.

I think my posts are the ones in question and I don't even think it's possible. I was just going through the exercise for fun.

Neutral Perez person here: I'd also note that Perez is probably still around because of his career trajectory. Early 20s with Detroit: Called up as toolsy/talented utility IF. Batting stats were horrendous. That's part of the reason why his career numbers look a little worse than what one has come to expect the last few years. Mid-late/20s he put up a .730 OPS at age 25 with the Brewers. I don't think people were expecting better than that, but as a player of his ilk, that's very promising. He went down to .700 last year and is declining this year. I think if he finishes the year this way, he's played himself out of a job. Going into this year, there was at least a reason to keep him around to start it.

Major league general managers do not play "hot bats" to decide on personnel very often. Sometimes it can break a tie, but I spent a page discussing how Orf is not in the same stratosphere of MLB talent with Saladino, Sogard, Franklin, Miller. You take the player that is most talented/has a track record (under normal circumstances)/tools to thrive in your situation. You don't grab a guy because he happens to be on a 20 for 35 hitting streak in the minors if you don't think he can hack MLB pitching. You can apply "hot bat" to someone like Aguilar when they grabbed him. He had MLB power and he may have been undervalued coming in. It appears that he's also adjusted his launch angle. In that case, if he's a hot bat in spring training it may raise an eyebrow and warrant a chance. Beyond that, hitters generally have a "hot bat" based on facing poor pitchers or hitting in great environments (like Colorado Springs). Nate Orf's hot streak would end very quickly when he wasn't hitting in Colorado and comes in to face MLB pitching given all of the points I've laid out that he simply is probably not cut out to be a very good hitter in the majors. Would have been nice to see him give it a go.... a shame to do so incredibly well without a cup of coffee. His on base is still over .400.... It's tough to believe he would have been worse than our scrap heap now. If one is hitting AAA pitching and doing well in Spring Training, he isn't trash, just down on the depth chart, I guess. I'm curious what other Brewers players are in Orf's category of AAA that will never sniff the big leagues... would like to see some specific names so I know who obviously really isn't a player. The haven't been drafted thing wears thin on me.... tons of examples that either were drafted low or not at all that had solid, if not spectacular, careers. Hot bats or arms are brought up all the time from AA or AAA based on impressive results there and not just tools. The reason so many want Hiura up like NOW is his hot bat, even though his track is for next year or 2020. Peralta is partly up now for the same reason.... Even Sogard was hitting really well in the minors last season and was brought up partly because of that, not because he was a second round pick or that he had previous experience in the bigs. Aguilar was acquired in the offseason about a year and a half ago.... nothing to do with him having a hot bat. I define this "hot" as doing really well or way above avg performance from a weekish to a month plus. I'm guessing your definition is different. Hiura has a "hot bat" because he's actually a likely good MLB player. As for the undrafted thing - for every Tom Brady (late pick) or Albert Pujols there are 10,000 guys that never play in the pros. Just because one of those guys exists doesn't mean you have to believe it's gonna happen with someone like Orf. I wouldn't play some complete washout that was drafted in the 1st round ahead of Orf forever...but it is definitely a data point as to why we can assume that he'll struggle talent-wise in the majors given that "more talented" players like Franklin, Sogard, etc. can barely succeed. In terms of "hot bat" I'm saying the only reason I'd pay attention to it is if it is a particular player that has potential or MLB tools. Aguilar having a good spring was something to take notice of because he previously had talents that translated to the majors. He may be starting to figure it out. Beyond that, hitting streaks are very predictable. If you're a fantasy baseball manager, pick up a talented/good MLB hitter that is going to Coors Field. They'll get a lot of hits. It's a struggle here if you cannot logically connect the dots that I'm trying to give you between Sogard and Orf and "hot streaks." I brought up that Sogard destroyed Colorado Springs/AAA last year because he's a superior player. If we had to send down Christian Yelich, there is a theoretical maximum, but I bet Yelich would hit .370 with a 1.200 OPS in Colorado Springs. So the fact that Orf is hitting .300/.400/.400 is not that impressive and is not some sort of hot streak that we should be trying to parlay into MLB success. I'll grant you guys this, that at this point of Sogard's career...sure, Orf could come up and put up a .600 OPS-.650 OPS. That's what I expect Sogard to trend back to anyways and therefore the organization likely does not want to dump $500k and a 40-man spot to Orf to find out. They're willing to do this for Keston Hiura in a few weeks because there is upside. Hiura may put up an .800 OPS or at the very least use this as a development tool for a great career. There's no upside with Orf. His ceiling is Eric Sogard and I'd heavily bet against him ever being that good. So what's the point? It's like trading out eating a bag of donuts for breakfast to eating an entire box of Lucky Charms for breakfast when you're trying to lose weight. There's no upside and it's not worth it to "try something different" in that case.

They did. For a portion of last year. I thought he'd be at least good at it but he wasn't for at least the time that they tried him.

Major league general managers do not play "hot bats" to decide on personnel very often. Sometimes it can break a tie, but I spent a page discussing how Orf is not in the same stratosphere of MLB talent with Saladino, Sogard, Franklin, Miller. You take the player that is most talented/has a track record (under normal circumstances)/tools to thrive in your situation. You don't grab a guy because he happens to be on a 20 for 35 hitting streak in the minors if you don't think he can hack MLB pitching. You can apply "hot bat" to someone like Aguilar when they grabbed him. He had MLB power and he may have been undervalued coming in. It appears that he's also adjusted his launch angle. In that case, if he's a hot bat in spring training it may raise an eyebrow and warrant a chance. Beyond that, hitters generally have a "hot bat" based on facing poor pitchers or hitting in great environments (like Colorado Springs). Nate Orf's hot streak would end very quickly when he wasn't hitting in Colorado and comes in to face MLB pitching given all of the points I've laid out that he simply is probably not cut out to be a very good hitter in the majors.

He may eventually get cut like Wren. The progression from rookie ball to the majors is not always linear. There are lot of "better" prospects in A or AA at times while the journeymen are there as the 7th string option or just teaching younger players at AAA. It all depends. I'm sure if we have a few other middle infielders make their way up that Orf may get cut as Wren did to latch on to another AAA team or maybe get a cup of coffee in the majors. We've got Hiura, Dubon, and a handful of younger guys in the Rk/A/A+/AA levels that I'm sure all have MLB potential, but we are not brimming with future MLBers. It's rare that teams are. So for now, Orf can be a backup backup backup option and collect his minor league paycheck at AAA. I'd guess that if they don't call him up this year or early next year, he'll go the way of Wren. Maybe earlier.

What was it at the end of a May? It doesn't really matter. The point is that on the whole, Orf's entire "he hits so well in AAA" description has to do with the fact that he essentially plays half of his games on the moon. The rest of the PCL is actually great for hitters but he has only done OK with that. It's the same reason that there are various guys that put up borderline All Star numbers for the Rockies that I would be barely interested in in a trade. You can't trust the numbers unless they're by a truly good hitter that can hit outside of that environment as well.

I do not think that major league teams are completely infallible, but I generally will defer to their risk/reward on injury calls. Maybe I'm "right" saying they should DL a guy immediately if once or twice if Braun holding out due to injury costs us a game because 1 less guy on the bench, but it doesn't happen much and you have to make the best % guess.

I agree that Miller won't see a ton of time at SS, but assuming Arcia gets sent down when Saladino returns, I'd say it will be more like: Miller gets 50% of the starts at SS. All of them are against RHP. Miller gets 25% of starts at 2B against only RHP. Villar starts 75% of the games at 2B. Mix in Perez a little bit (so maybe Villar is more like 67% at 2B). Saladino starts 50% at SS. He faces LHP and also plays against some RHP when we have more of contact pitchers on the mound. Saladino is a replacement late in the game for Miller.

Hey, it's almost like I said that in my post and said this is for fun purposes only. I'll edit and bold it.

I highly doubt he'd sign an extension before this offseason. He's gonna wait until this offseason and I'd prefer to sign him there if the imaginary scenario happened there. I know I had said this probably wasn't possible a few pages earlier, but just for fun even though the chances of it are .00001%, I think it would go like: Machado gets 8 years, $255 million. Opt-outs after 2 and 5 years. I'm probably even undershooting this. It might be closer to $300 since the big markets have been holding out for these guys. $35, $40, $35, $35, $35, $25, $25, $25 You'd non-tender Miller, Perez, and likely Villar in this case. Give away Chase Anderson for a high ceiling prospect. Somebody is likely willing to pay him $6 million next year with options after that. You might be able to squeeze in at $130 million in that case for the next 2 seasons which is probably a pipe dream max of what Attanasio would be willing to pay to "go for it" for a few years. I'd say backload it to pay him once Braun is gone, but Machado's gonna want to get paid big early and have opt-outs. The only other way to maybe do it is tell him he's not getting opt-outs but give him even more ($300 million for 8 years?) where you're basically paying him $40+ million in his final 3-4 seasons. Still probably undershooting it, though.

Santana - Yes, there is some "where has it gone?" with him. May be related to his lack of playing time, but the ball has gone over the fence for him less than usual. Bell - Last year was probably an outlier. His ISO was in the .160ish range all the way up and was .130 for his first season up and is that this year. It was .211 last year. He could still develop/adjust, but he's probably a .250/.340 guy with 15-20 HR and not .270/.350 with 25-30 HR if we put his best of his best together. Going from Pittsburgh to Miller Park may help a bit, but not a ton.

They had better options behind those guys (Drake and Logan). MLB caliber guys. They probably do/did behind Sogard but injuries and Arcia playing like crap have kept him hanging on to a bottom roster spot for dear life.

There ya go. You guys are way more knowledgeable on minor leaguers than me. Guys like that in our system, guys in other that won't get a chance etc. I’d give those guys a chance, sure. But we’ve gone with Franklin, Saladino, Miller, picked up Andres Blanco, and have 3 other guys on the roster. The fact that you think we aren’t trying other options is what is puzzling. Hager may get his chance someday but there’s a reason he’s in AA at age 25. It’s the backup quarterback theory. They’re always a better option because they’ve never had a chance to suck on the field.

Sogard hit .330/.420/.500 in CS last year. All I’m saying while you may not be throwing full support behind Orf is that you cannot seem to comprehend that even if Sogard is not hitting well this year and Orf is hitting well in CS, it is still more likely that Sogard is a better, more productive player if in theory they were both allowed 300 ABs from now until the end of 2018 in the majors.

A few posts above me, read it: Orf is hitting .250 with a .650 OPS on the road this year. Last year was a bit better at .285/.800 on the road (again, the PCL is great for hitters but Colorado Springs is at another level). And again, even with decent road #s, the home video game numbers were still there boosting him up. I agree with you. Sogard stinks. Try something else. Like try Nick Franklin, Tyler Saladino, Brad Miller, Andres Blanco is even queued up. They're trying and eventually Sogard may get chopped. I'll agree that maybe he already should've been with some of the other utility guys they've tried. They're doing exactly what you are asking for. They've acquired several AAA/AAAA guys but given that other teams need AAA depth, they can't acquire 10 of them. They've used or acquired 4 or 5 already. Do not try Nate Orf. He is putting up Sogard-esque numbers at age 28 in AAA when not in Colorado Springs. That's all I'm saying. If we did not have a minor league affiliate in Colorado Springs, you'd have never heard of this guy.

If he was anywhere other than Colorado Springs, he'd likely be hitting .270 with zero power and we'd all never have heard of him. I CANNOT wait to get out of Colorado Springs. He is as bad as I believe. Ask all 30 MLB GMs that have never drafted him in the rule 5 draft where is free for the taking, offered a bag of baseballs to Stearns for him in a trade (I'd have to imagine Stearns would give him away if offered), or gotten called up over some terrible performances by the Brewers.

I have always been not a fan of Sogard. His little run of last year got fans' expectations of a career utility guy way too high. I would have had no problem cutting him earlier this year and wouldn't care right now. That said, he very well could put up a .240/.320/.370 with defensive versatility or something like that line the rest of the way. Yes, he's struggling right now. You still go with your analysis on players. You don't go to inferior talent to "try something different" even if Sogard is having a bad year. If Christian Yelich hits .190 for 2 months, I'm not calling up Keon Broxton for him yet. The staff has a lot of data to back up sticking with Yelich...and Yelich will get it right. I'd expect that out of Franklin with some upside or Miller with even more upside. Saladino has an MLB glove and has some upside in his bat. "Sometimes projections are wrong, sometimes scouts are wrong." OK, I'm going to bring this up yet again. Why not call me up? The scouts and management could be wrong. Maybe all I needed was a change of scenery from my local softball league and get some MLB coaching and I'll figure it all out. "Sometimes projections are wrong" is a cop out answer for "anything can happen." Of course it can. That doesn't mean we're going to bat Eric Sogard leadoff every day for the rest of the season because "you never know, maybe we were wrong and he'll put up a .400 OBP the rest of the year." We literally pay millions of dollars to these guys and [other than Scooter] this staff clearly knows what the hell they're doing. They are arguably one of the best front offices in all of baseball and you're suggesting "try something different" as a solution. They're going to keep trying to improve (hence, trading for Miller) but they aren't going to do something just to do something (Orf) if it doesn't make sense to them. Also, Sogard has been an OK (below league average/average) utility guy for the better part of 8 years. That's why I'd take him over Orf given the expectations on Orf. The fact that Sogard was drafted high and a good minors player is part of the equation. The other part of it tells you how misleading everyone's perception of Orf can be. He doesn't carry the talent for MLB baseball and his AAA numbers are very misleading and are being done when he's 4-5 years older than the majority of the league. In a lot of cases, the talent will eventually play into the stats.

Tyler Saladino has had MLB talent and was ticketed for the majors. Eric Sogard was an great minor league hitter (for a slap-hitting middle infielder) and an OK defensive player in the majors. Brad Miller was a dominant minor league hitter and puts up league average numbers for a middle infielder. There are a lot of better options than handing someone an achievement award. We're trying to win a pennant and while I agree that keeping Sogard around forever is puzzling, I'll trust this regime which seems to have us 5-10 games over expectations/projections every year as to who they think can hack it in the majors. I know we debated this a month ago, but I was a decent high school hitter and tried really hard. Why not call me up? You bristled at it, but that's the extreme example. If they don't think that Orf is going to be a good major league hitter then why call him up because "we know Sogard isn't good" if we still think he's a better option than Orf? Trying something different for the sake of it doesn't make sense if it's a vastly inferior option. It's one thing when you have a guy with MLB talent like Saladino available. Then yes, absolutely try the other option out because Sogard is a known poor commodity. It's another thing if you're just going to call up a guy destined to fail because you feel like trying something different. They could be nice to Orf and expose him to trades or the rule 5 draft. Oh, wait, they have already done this and nobody else in the league wants him. Because sometimes you have to admit you're wrong or maybe you're missing something rather than being stubborn. IMO, they're being stubborn with Sogard to try and prove themselves right (the sunk cost fallacy thing) and/or or are being loyal to him because he's a nice guy that everyone likes. If I remember he was brought over because some friend of his in another organization came here and likes him, so now they're just playing favorites in a way. In reality, he's had his shot. Try the next guy and see if he's better. If not, try the next guy. Of course these are all "least worst" options and I'd prefer someone good, but considering the hand they're dealt it's what they should be doing while they keep exploring legit options. I think you had a line in there about achievement award type thing and you're against it. That's basically what they're doing with Sogard right now and you seem ok with it as he hits 110. This is a you are doing well and everything right, let's see if you can keep it going at the next level. Here's your shot, sink or swim. The example of you being a HS hitter is just completely dumb and you know it. These guys are all at the same AAA/AAAA level and generally in the same ballpark/class of player. You playing HS ball is not in the same class. Sogard is likely the worst player in MLB, I don't see how anyone can argue with giving someone else a chance. It's almost impossible to do worse than him. These guys are not all the same AAA/AAAA caliber guys. How hard is that to understand? The guys we have tried are. Nate Orf is not and hence why I keep bringing up the "why not call me up?" Eric Sogard was drafted in the 2nd round, hit .300/.380/.420 from ages 21-24 in the minors. Nick Franklin was a 1st round pick, was in the top 100, put up an .840 OPS at age 19 in A/AA ball. Tyler Saladino was a 7th round pick and put up several .850 OPS seasons in his early 20s in the minors while being a very good defensive MLB option. Brad Miller was a 2nd round pick, shot through the minors, and has put up respectable MLB numbers. Nate Orf was undrafted, is nothing special as a defender, and never hit well in the minors until he was a 27 year old playing in the best hitting environment in American baseball. He has zero power which is needed for somebody that does not have elite speed to have a chance at doing anything against MLB pitching/defense. I'm not saying that where a guy is drafted or his scouted talent always should be the starting point because there are definitely exceptions but Nate Orf is not interchangeable with these other guys. I keep trying to say that and you keep lumping him in with the other guys.

You have those guys in AAA because your options behind them perhaps have not yet advanced to AAA. Most very good major league players (longtime starters) barely taste AAA. If Hiura is coming up, it's likely directly from AA. If he goes to AAA, he may displace Orf for 2 months and then come up and give the spot back to Orf. Those guys are also fine as 6th or 7th options. If Saladino is hurt, Sogard is hurt, Villar is hurt, and Miller isn't cutting it at SS...then I'll call up Nate Orf and live with his .230/.280/.340 batting line for hopefully a few weeks off my bench at 2B/SS because maybe I refuse to call up Hiura yet and start his clock, etc. Basically every organization has these guys.

Tyler Saladino has had MLB talent and was ticketed for the majors. Eric Sogard was an great minor league hitter (for a slap-hitting middle infielder) and an OK defensive player in the majors. Brad Miller was a dominant minor league hitter and puts up league average numbers for a middle infielder. There are a lot of better options than handing someone an achievement award. We're trying to win a pennant and while I agree that keeping Sogard around forever is puzzling, I'll trust this regime which seems to have us 5-10 games over expectations/projections every year as to who they think can hack it in the majors. I know we debated this a month ago, but I was a decent high school hitter and tried really hard. Why not call me up? You bristled at it, but that's the extreme example. If they don't think that Orf is going to be a good major league hitter then why call him up because "we know Sogard isn't good" if we still think he's a better option than Orf? Trying something different for the sake of it doesn't make sense if it's a vastly inferior option. It's one thing when you have a guy with MLB talent like Saladino available. Then yes, absolutely try the other option out because Sogard is a known poor commodity. It's another thing if you're just going to call up a guy destined to fail because you feel like trying something different. They could be nice to Orf and expose him to trades or the rule 5 draft. Oh, wait, they have already done this and nobody else in the league wants him.

Orf is not an MLB baseball player. I'm convinced of this. We have a front office that consistently has our team exceeding projections every year and apparently have zero intent on ever calling up Orf and there is probably a very good reason for this. Ha! How are you so sure? Seen him play? Or just blindly going with DS on this one? Then, please oh please, explain why Orf is at AAA? Why are we playing this poor sap at our highest minor league affiliate? If I'm Orf, I would have gone to Stearns on an off day when I was hitting .380 (slumped to .300 or so now) plumped by butt in his office chair, and have him explain why in the world he was playing me at AAA? Ask him why even have me on the team if there is no hope for me, regardless of what I do, at AAA. If every cotton pickin guy from Saladino, Franklin, Sogard, and now Miller was considered above me, why even play me at AAA. Cut me or play me at A ball. It's a sick joke to have our weakest positions not being filled by our AAA hot hitting infielder. If stats do matter (and many of you continue to beat the stats drum for Sogard's departure), others should be calling for guys like Orf and Wren to get shots to play off our bench. If his play does not matter for some biased and unfair reason, get rid of the poor sap. Don't lead the guy on. This Brewers topic upsets me more than any other, and this includes my rants on the extended long rope of love for the ever talented Villar. 1. We've had guys that hit .220 in the majors (one of them is hitting .180 in Miami this year) hit .330 in Colorado Springs. Throw those stats in the garbage. It can add .50 points to your batting average compared to more neutral minors leagues/parks, especially given that the road parks in that league are great for hitters in the PCL. 2. He has almost no power. Eric Sogard was a much better minor league hitter statistically and ran through the minors in his early 20s. Nate Orf is still in AAA at age 28. There you go. Put those two things together. You can only put so many exciting, gritty at-bats with good patience together that fans generally fawn over when you cannot hit the ball anywhere near the wall or over it routinely. Major league pitchers, shifts, and defenders will eat you up. Take a look at what Ivan DeJesus did in Colorado Springs and what he did as an MLB player. There is a reason that nobody has touched Orf and Wren in the Rule 5 draft. Their gaudy .310/.400/.400 lines in Colorado Springs will turn into .230/.280/.330 in the majors. Wren at least has borderline elite speed so maybe he'd have a shot. Ivan DeJesus MLB Career - .242 Avg, .630 OPS 2017: Colorado Springs - .345 Avg, .894 OPS 2018: Pawtucket - .277 Avg, .729 OPS Lewis Brinson 2017 Colorado Springs - .331 Avg, .962 OPS 2018 Miami Marlins - .177 Avg, .554 OPS So on, so forth. Many more examples with Colorado Springs or Coors Field.