bill hAll Star
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Everything posted by bill hAll Star
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Absolutely baffling that when you have a chance to add a guy we HOPE Corbin Burnes or Woodruff could be for 4 years cheap as **** nobody thinks its a great deal. Sorry but I will take the guaranteed talent every time thanks. Cheap doesn’t matter that much as posted above. He’s the final piece most likely. Put yourself in the position of someone that realistically thinks the team might not be better than the Cubs the next 2 years even with Archer. Then consider basically 70% of the players expected to come up and help the team or maybe be trade chips for 2020-2026 are gone. I’m not renouncing fandom if they deal for Archer. I’ll enjoy it and hope everything works out. I just see a lot more downside than some do that are penciling in every optimistic projection for the Brewers in these trades.
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I'm just going off Cots, but it calculates that we currently have $89.2M in 2018 payroll. It doesn't appear they've added Albers yet, so add $2.5M and its approximately $91.7M. Archer earns $6.25M this season, but if we add 1-2 pitchers then I doubt Gallardo makes the team and you can remove his non-guaranteed $2M. That gives a grand total of $96M. I highly doubt that if Mark A. is going for it to the extent of adding Yelich and Cain and trading for Archer that a difference of $96M versus $92M is going to stop him from signing anybody. Yes, I am on Cot’s a lot. The future years do not have arbitration projections added in. Take that $63 in 2019 and add $7.5 for Archer, $4 for Nelson, $7 for Knebel, $2.5 for Albers (not listed yet), $5 for Davies, $5 for Shaw, $2 for Broxton, $2 for Pina. If Santana isn’t included in the trade, that’s $4-5 more. Add 7 or 8 minimum salary guys and you’re at $100 and that doesn’t factor in the decision to keep Villar, Perez, Vogt, Jeffress, etc, who in this example I’m pretending aren’t being kept. Sure, I have to imagine they’ll leave room to sign other guys. Mark isn’t that dumb. But if we trade for Archer, he’s bordering on the final piece unless Mark is substantially increasing his old max budget. This year is this year. Mark may spend a few bucks at 2B after Archer but we’re near done regardless just because a lot of the free agents have signed. I’m talking 2019 and 2020. Budget gets tight even if Archer is cheaper.
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I personally don’t care that much about how affordable Archer’s deal is. We’re going to be nearly capped out whether Archer is a $10 million/year guy or $20 million/year I’m not saying it’s meaningless. It may leave us a bit of room at a trade deadline or maybe we could afford a modest 2B upgrade, but we’re going to be near capped out. Also, we’ll be paying extra (future cheap MLB player) contracts due to Archer’s contract being a value league wide and driving up his cost. Archer isn't making much more than Yovani Gallardo or Matt Albers this season. He's not "capping" us out at anything. He's never guaranteed more than $7.5M per season (not counting options) and after this season our payroll commitments drop to $63M and then $46M and then continues to drop. That’s not true at all. Those payroll commitments factor in zero arbitration players and options. We’re likely around $100 million with Archer in 2019 but could maybe get a bit lower chopping Vogt, Villar, or Perez. We might have room for one more free agent/moderate contract player after Archer assuming payroll is going to be $110ish and maybe $120 the one or two years Mark truly goes all-in.
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Elite? I understand that none of these guys are rentals. I just worry about consolidating all of our system into a handful of fringe All Stars. This would be the type of roster that needs some depth behind it or we had better pray that nobody in the Shaw, Anderson, Knebel, Nelson group was a fluke last year.
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I personally don’t care that much about how affordable Archer’s deal is. We’re going to be nearly capped out whether Archer is a $10 million/year guy or $20 million/year I’m not saying it’s meaningless. It may leave us a bit of room at a trade deadline or maybe we could afford a modest 2B upgrade, but we’re going to be near capped out. Also, we’ll be paying extra (future cheap MLB player) contracts due to Archer’s contract being a value league wide and driving up his cost.
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If its the difference between making the playoffs and not, between having a chance at the World Series or not, you're damn right I am. If we have to go into another rebuild in 5-6 years, so be it. That's the economics of small market baseball. Not in 5-6 years, if the Cubs are substantially better than us and we aren’t competing for the division, I don’t care if we have Yelich for 5 years. If you empty the farm to hang a 2nd place banner, we’ll be rebuilding in 3 or 4 with a completely empty farm system. I’m one of the bigger proponents of signing free agents on this board. I’m not a person that just sits and gets excited about prospects. I just think we are playing smalltime fan small market baseball where our goal appears to be to create a 3 year window in which I’m not even sure we can win the division. I’m not saying I don’t think we can win it with Archer, I think he’s a pretty good player. I just think there is a very real chance of finishing behind the Cubs 3 times and then 4 or 5 horrendous years of tearing down and rebuilding.
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No one is advocating going full on Chicago Cubs and selling off every decent prospect in the system. Like I mentioned before, its a tightrope. You build with prospects, but can't be afraid to pull the trigger or selling them off to improve the big club. I think the biggest thing here is a disagreement on the value of Archer. I think pitching in the NL Central, he's a stud. Obviously you don't all think so. But the team hasn't had a pitcher with his type of stuff since Greinke or Sheets. The problem is when other MLB teams are raiding your farm system, the other professional front offices generally are good at picking the 4 prospects that will actually pan out out of the 10 we think we have. I think you’re just being optimistic about having much left. Say we miss the playoffs with Archer and in 2019 are 2 games out of the Wild Card and are getting a bit urgent. You gonna trade the 2-3 remaining prospects for something? I’ll bet that Mark will want to.
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That is why they "HAVE to hit on their draft picks" I mean, he answered you already! Continue to build through the draft and international free agency so you continue to have currency to build and maintain a contender. Even hitting at a solid/good clip for several years takes a while to rebuild the farm. It’s easier said than done. If we only draft OK or poorly after selling everything in theory, you’re talking about another situation where we are turning to Yuni Betancourt (ok, Stearns isn’t that dumb) when we have an injury or have to go to a massive rebuild in 3 or 4 years. I was all for the Greinke trade, but imagine 5-6 years of Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi, and Jeffress in a window of years where we still had a good roster but had depth issues after it.
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Where is Domingo Going?
bill hAll Star replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Or other teams have shown interest since the moves last week, causing Stearns to reconsider. Cheap, young power-hitting corner outfielders don't come up on the market very often. Having guys like J.D. Martinez and Carlos Gonzales still out there probably doesn't help. Santana is kind of a "poor man's version" of them. Small quibble, but I don't think Gonzalez holds any value. Someone will sign him, but he's probably a one year risk type of guy. I can't imagine anyone thinks he's much more than a .750 OPS guy away from Coors and can only face right handed pitching to accomplish that. -
Brewers sign Matt Albers - 2 year deal
bill hAll Star replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Well, several of those guys would've been 4x the cost of Albers. Reed was 3x. -
Brewers sign Matt Albers - 2 year deal
bill hAll Star replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If we're to believe HighHeat as gospel (and given the results, I'd be close to it), maybe this is the smaller deal he mentioned that was brewing outside of the Santana deal (which hasn't happened yet for whatever reason). -
This right here slants it to Greinke a bit if one makes some assumptions. Assumption 1 is that the trade would essentially be a salary dump trade. Assumption 2 is that Darvish and Arrieta are getting into 5 or 6 year territory in their negotiations. Now the idea of Greinke makes some sense. I'd agree with your sentiment that Greinke has a good chance to be as good or better for the next 2 years. After that, you're paying Greinke for 2 years (we'll leave the deferred payments out for now) and you might be paying Arrieta/Darvish for 3-4 more years.
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I just don't understand why TB would have any interest in Santana at all in this scenario. Why bother asking for an MLB guy that you'll have for the years you just that you just traded away your ace for? If I'm trading away Archer I want prospects on prospects, and really good ones. Cleveland for Mejia/Salazar makes a lot more sense to me, though I would love to get Archer. Some people think they'll still want to compete with Honeywell, Snell coming of age, etc. but I'm not sure I believe it.
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Greinke started throwing his slider a lot more to reinvent himself. That could be good and bad as he gets older. It may destroy his arm, but I think he could be an upper-tier pitcher for a few more years. He also may grace whoever has his contract with an early retirement late in his career. I can't imagine walking away from $30 million, and I doubt he does, but he might just say that he's made enough. If this was purely a Greinke for nothing salary dump, I'd consider it but probably not. If Zona kicked in $5-10 million/year, I'm starting to listen more.
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I do not.
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Because it's a board and people like speculate. Almost all of these trade offers are treating Mejia like a throw-in. I am higher on Mejia than Brinson, but they are I believe the #19 and #20 prospects right now in baseball. I think Mejia climbs higher by this time next year, but let's treat them the same. People are just acting like we'd have thrown in Lewis Brinson as the tiebreaker in a very close trade. It's kinda absurd. "You think that Broxton for [insert moderate-ceiling AAA reliever here] is slightly in the Brewers favor but very close? OK, we'll throw in Brinson to smooth that out." Someone just posted Mejia for Santana. I think that is somewhat closer to a reality, but I still think Cleveland hangs up the phone and waits for a few more pieces to be added before they even start thinking about it.
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Not for Cleveland.
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Did he delete the tweet youre inferring to? I think they're still up there...you just need to speculate: "He has a plan for me"= maybe I've been traded somewhere again and it's another bump in the road? "I know who my crew is" = the "Crew" may not be is crew now. Also a tweet about being ready for Spring Training to start in the middle of there which is just part of the story of those other 2.
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Healy is at least supposed to be a better hitter than he showed last year. Gamel was a lucky BABIP guy, but he still deserves a spot there. I guess they could still upgrade at either of those spots, but you're kinda robbing Peter to pay Paul in a competitive team scenario trading Paxton. I don't think Colorado needs 1B/OF, either. They've got Desmond, Parra, Tapia, Dahl, Blackmon, and McMahon may be taking over for Desmond at 1B if that isn't working out. I'm not sure the Tigers can be enticed at all to trade for Santana. They're still 2-3 years away. List looks pretty good, otherwise.
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It's not entirely far-fetched. Look at what a dominant, healthy Byron Buxton does to the Twins W/L record when he's roaming CF. The ERA of their pitchers dropped drastically. Maybe not in those Gomez years. Maybe he was a bit overrated. It's not perfect, but it's something that is at least a decent source of projections.
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Depending on what pitcher we get, we probably project to be significantly worse than the Cubs. I tend to somewhat agree...on paper we are slightly worse, but projection systems(and WAR) are complete garbage on their own and should be mostly ignored. We are definitely within range of overtaking the Cubs this year with the right pitcher. Not the favorites no matter what pitcher we get, but it's not a pipe dream like last season was...somewhere in the middle. Projection systems are pretty good. They're probably wrong about the Brewers. Doesn't mean you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I like the systems and then can use my own opinion to maybe find a few places where the computer projections are wrong about a team or player. I'd rather have them than not have them. If it means some person really is locked in on the idea that the Brewers are still a 77 win team, so be it.
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Where is Domingo Going?
bill hAll Star replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As noted elsewhere, I'd give it nearly 100% certainty that Cleveland rejects Santana for Mejia straight up. I don't know that they'd reject that deal. They have 2 catchers with significant team control, both of which are better defenders. Also note that Santana is almost a necessity for that team. There is no other RH power hitting OF as established as Santana that is both expendable and as low cost as he will be. That said, I don't think we trade Santana for anything other than pitching. That's like saying the Brewers would accept Salazar for Brinson as a trade because we have Broxton and Phillips (before all of these other moves). Mejia is a top 20 prospect and probably will keep climbing the rankings. He could flame out like anyone else, but I could see him being top 10/top 5 in 2 years. And that means he's only being used to acquire an elite player, not a good DH (and we're not even factoring in that the Indians are throwing in 2 other pieces of value to that proposed trade). -
Where is Domingo Going?
bill hAll Star replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As noted elsewhere, I'd give it nearly 100% certainty that Cleveland rejects Santana for Mejia straight up. -
This debate will rage on all offseason, but I'm not sure I want to because: A. I'm less confident that the Cubs will open a window. B. If the Cubs do, I'm not even confident that if we have Yelich+ that we'd jump through it. C. The cost to get Yelich is several 2019-2025 contributors. I think there's value in seeing what we currently have and pairing the good elements of that with said 2019-2025 contributors and being the best team in the division 2020-2025. I still would like to take a shot at it this year, but I'd do it almost all through free agency. Sign another starter and see if we can sneak past the Cubs this year. Yelich may be a 2018-2023 contributor, but you're crushing the depth of 2020-2025 to get him most likely.
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Those teams aren't in the same position as the Brewers. The Phillies are probably in the last building year of a near-scorched earth rebuild (they waited too long on Utley and Howard, but they let it go into the tank). They are probably willing to spend huge this year if the opportunity presents itself, but I see them making a play at Harper or one of the aces next year to combine with a very good, young roster. The Rockies are nearing the end of Arenado/Blackmon era and have 5 or 6 solid pitchers that they control for the next 5 years. The Rangers have always been in win-now mode. I don't even think it's smart to do, but they have a lot of vets on the team. The Phillies may be the closest comparison to the Brewers, but the Nats might have a shorter shelf life as a dominant team. Murphy and Harper are FAs next year and Scherzer may soon decline (he's a truly elite anchor). Zimmerman is getting old, Gio's deal is up soon, etc. They've got Trea Turner and Robles coming up eventually, so maybe they can keep it rolling, but there is a window for the Phillies to jump through next year. I don't see them trading for Christian Yelich to try to surpass the Nats this year.
