bill hAll Star

I'm still assuming that Braun or Davis may get moved, but it's not that bad of a logjam. Davis/Braun/Santana/Broxton and Flores in the majors. Flores can be temporarily replaced by Peterson or Presley. Once back, they can be DFA'ed. I still think there is a trade happening here because if Broxton is the CF, you have 3 guys for 2 starting spots. Phillips/Reed/Wren in AAA. It's possible that Phillips could hang in AA for just a little while to start the year. I'd imagine that they plan to have him at AAA, but that would possibly open up some room for Presley in AAA. Actually Presley will probably be a backup no matter what level he is at unless he really impresses.

The actual defensive metrics don't have him at very good results (but not terrible in limited games). I'm not really sure how I feel about a salary dump of Braun, essentially. At that point, I'd consider just letting him play as an old guy on our rebuilt team on a 2 year, $36 million deal or whatever it is at the end.

I'd prefer a younger guy like Alvarez to Kelly Johnson, as you have the possibility to maybe keep Alvarez if you really like his career turnaround. Johnson would likely only be used to flip later. Alvarez probably would be in the same boat, but a higher reward. I'd go internal (Rogers) AND external (Alvarez). I hope to eventually have a 1B ticketed for a 2017 or 2018 entry to the majors - and that may come via a different trade or draft. Rogers can get his ABs and we can decide if he's a role player accordingly. When you trade Alvarez or Johnson at the deadline, Rogers will get his full shot, though I believe his ceiling is a nice-hitting role player.

I mentioned Grandal twice.

Yeah, this is probably the statement that cements it. We just do not have the pitcher needed in order to do this trade. We need a lot more than another pitcher, unless he is a legitimate stud. You're undervaluing Seager/Urias quite a bit. Seager is probably a Tulowitzki-level prospect that won't get to play in Coors Field. Not much of a point of arguing it, though, as we all agree this is unreasonable.

Seager is a better hitter than Arcia right now and is already in the MLB as a shortstop. Ethier in a platoon (factor in stadium factor for current stats) is as good or better than Braun at this point. Grandal platoon is just as good as Lucroy can be expected to be at this point. Seager -> Arcia = Downgrade for Dodgers Ethier -> Braun = Even Grandal -> Luc = Moderate advantage to Luc, but not that big of one given injury concerns. They're then throwing extra players in to get this done and they've already lost.

Even if you threw in Arcia you wouldn't have a chance.

He has the plate discipline of Yuni and pitcher's exploited it. Also, while it seemed that he had a lot of talent in the minors at a certain point, he wasn't THAT highly regarded of a prospect. He did well when he came up for Boston, hence the explosion. I think he was overrated, but we can afford to make about 50 no-risk moves right now, so I'll take it.

He has the plate discipline of Yuni and pitcher's exploited it. Also, while it seemed that he had a lot of talent in the minors at a certain point, he wasn't THAT highly regarded of a prospect. He did well when he came up for Boston, hence the explosion. I think he was overrated, but we can afford to make about 50 no-risk moves right now, so I'll take it.

True...Cot's was always a bit confusing about what he is due. I didn't realize the 20/20/20/19/17 or does not factor in the deferred payments. I had assumed those would be listed further on down the road. Sometimes they list the deferred payments in the year they are due, sometimes they don't.

My issue is that this is all speculative when he is going to be fairly old. yes, he'll be at 2 or 3 years remaining and 20/18/17 million per year, but he'll be in his mid, approaching late 30s. They do not need the cost savings at all on their current roster, but it might be nice to have that cash to add a younger player to the competitive core or find a better fit veteran. Assuming a wave of young players in 2017 or so, his contract will end right when we need to really start paying them arby/FA buyout contracts. No need to rush the trade, but I'd try to guess at his highest value in the next 2 years and make the deal, if Braun allows it. If it doesn't happen, you're right, it's not terrible.

I think they'll inadvertently do this by trying to buy low on certain players like Alvarez this year and next. They'll grab a few vets to flip later on. Those guys will help for a bit. It'll be pretty apparent that they have no chance about 40 games into next season and they'll probably sell even more players at the deadline. Will this matter to fans? Absolutely not. Anyone that wants to come to see the Brewers not just going there to drink or bring their kids does not care if their 32-57 Brewers do not have Pedro Alvarez or even Lucroy for that matter in the 2nd half. The 100 or so fans that stop coming because the team is pathetic instead of "trying, but not good" will not matter to ownership as they're pocketing a few extra million bucks. Will this 2-3 year period of selling players like that matter to fans in the long-haul? Once again, no. Given that we're going to go through a rebuild, nobody is going to care who was playing 3rd base in 2016 when the team is in the 2019 playoffs. No Cubs fan cares that Garza, Dempster, Soriano, Feldman or any other veteran having a solid season 2011-2014 are gone now that it is 2015. All they care about is Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, etc. and they're all back at the stadium. The Royals stunk for 20+ years and I guarantee they're going to go through an era of packed stadiums, even for a few years after this window closes.

The funny part is merely a few hundred miles to the west the Twins have had 4-5 years of absolute terrible baseball, and despite an unexpected good showing last year the fanbase did not come out in droves. As a matter of fact, they had LESS FANS ATTEND GAMES even though they contended for a playoff spot than they did in 2014. They have had LESS FANS ATTEND GAMES every single year since their 2010 playoff sweep to the Yankees, which is about 33% less (3.1 million vs 2.2 million). Did I mention their stadium is brand new and one of the best in the league? Oh right, that didn't seem to help draw the fans in either. You mentioned the key point in your last sentence here. New stadium in 2010 = a lot of fans. It's a bit smaller, so 3.1 million is good. Team begins to fall apart, stadium is still new 2011-2013 = Decrease in fans, but only slight. Team begins to rebuild 2014-2015, last ounce of new stadium excitement wears away = Bottom. Stadium began to fill again near the end of 2015. 2016 and beyond assuming they don't fall apart again = lots of fans again. I'm not sure what else you want to do. Do you want to keep signing players to win 75 games? The Bucks tried to "stay competitive" for the last decade before Kohl sold the team and nobody showed up. Fans get tired of mediocrity as well. Nobody's going to show up at Miller Park in 2016 and 2017. They already stopped showing up in 2015, and that team had Lind, Lucroy, K-Rod, Gomez, and were coming off a year that looked to have promise. Sure, I think Pedro Alvarez and guys like that are good pickups and might bring 1% more fans in, but for me, I want these moves to flip for players later to bring fans in down the road. There is nothing the Brewers could do/could have done save for deciding to dump a billion dollars in future money on free agents that would have gotten Miller Park to draw large crowds for 2016.

Explain how the trades for Villar, Flores, Cecchini, and Pina are playing for 2020. Come on. Those are just cheap guys to fill stop gap roles. Maybe I will buy Villar has some upside, but he is very much in the flyer category. Flores and Pina are role players at best. Cecchini was a cash deal, so you know what Boston thought of him. These are cheaper versions of Kotsay types with the hopes that we find a change of scenery success story. These are guys you'd see on an expansion team, so Im surprised anyone would classify them as legitimate assets. No way any move Stearns has made this offseason so far making the MLB roster better. Im not saying that is a bad thing because the rebuild was necessary. Im just saying our 2017 dreams - even if they were unrealistic - have pretty much died this offseason. I will be very interested to see what he brings back with Lucroy. So far he looks like a very young, inexperienced GM. Lucroy is a very valuable asset so the "Lind is worthless" mentality wont be valid in that trade. Its not unreasonable to think we could have netted a Brandon Moss or Parra type return in a Lind trade. Why would we want an Adam Lind-type back in an Adam Lind trade? In terms of your comments on Cecchini, Villar, etc. - these are the only type of players you want to add outside of a Pedro Alvarez free agency risk or two. You don't want to overpay in-demand vets right now, you don't want to play your good, young players too early before they're ready and eat their service time up. Why not currently buy low on players that once had a bit of potential instead of filling your roster with Casey McGehee types while you tank/rebuild? It's possible that Cecchini is a nice, cheap backup 3B/1B in 2019. You could do worse than that. Look at the Cubs and Astros' rosters during their rebuild. The Cubs brought in once highly-thought-of Luis Valbuena and flipped him for value down the road. The Astros tried to buy low on Jordan Schafer for awhile in the Bourn trade, tried to buy low on Bedard, Pena, etc. (less examples in the Astros' case because they went nuclear on their roster).

Zobrist is the worst contract. Who cares if he gets along with the manager if he's too old to be a productive baseball player? Lackey is 2 years and he's either a throwaway #4 starter or he keeps pitching very well. They'll have mostly a good defense behind him now with Heyward (not Schwarber, though). Heyward has a player opt-out after 3 years. If he's healthy at all, the way money is booming in baseball, he'll opt-out and they'll have to decide whether they want to commit to him for another 5-8 years then. It could turn bad if he completely falters and never can opt out, but it's at least front-loaded in that case. The later era of Epstein somewhat applied to this theory as well. They did have money to burn. However, Gonzalez probably would have been productive had he stayed...Lackey was a leadership/personal issue...he was worth the money again once he lost weight. Crawford was a bad deal. Almost no mega contract is worth it in the end. However, if I have a cheap payroll already, I don't care if I'm overpaying somebody to supplement my roster if the owner is basically begging me to spend the money.

You are assuming that the Brewers will be able to rebuild a fan base similar to the past after they tank for 3-4 years? That's not a safe assumption. The Brewer emergence from 07-11 was helped in large part by mismanagement of their division rivals, particularly the Cubs, and the Astros, who then essentially threw in the towel. Other than a similarly struggling Reds franchise, I don't see the division rivals cooperating again. The Bucks are building a fanbase again easily after finally getting rid of Herb's strategy and giving a slight tank the chance. I bought season tickets along with a bunch of other people in the 2003-2006 range as the Brewers rebuilt after coming out of the Selig doldrums. Fans will come back when the team starts winning, guaranteed, and a subset of hardcore fans will come back as the team is just about to emerge. If this rebuild creates a 3-5 year window of making the playoffs a few times or maybe even being dominant, I can guarantee you the stadium will fill. Wisconsin fans always come back. Could they strike out on their rebuild and have a really competitive division? Sure. I'd argue that rebuilding would give them a better chance from having a 3+ million fan season again in a few years. If they don't rebuild and your strategy of trying to string along 75 win seasons doesn't pan out into anything more than 75 win seasons for 5 years while the farm system remains empty, fans will care even less.

The Cubs went from a model franchise to stupid in the span of a few weeks. Im not sure I get their moves outside of maybe Zobrist and thats only because I trust Maddon. The other moves were downright silly. Lackey seems like a product of the St Louis pitching factory and $184 for JHey makes little sense, though I heard that contract is structured pretty well, such as it is. They are really banking on Arrietta not falling back to earth it seems, or JHey singlehandedly turning average pitchers into good ones?? As a side note, I noticed the Royals payroll is $115M now. That is hardly bargain basement like I assumed. "Despite last season’s World Series Championship, the Royals are expected to operate with a payroll that is similar to 2015’s mark of $115MM, writes the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. As such, it’s unlikely that the club is able to retain Alex Gordon, barring unforeseen circumstances. " http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/todd-frazier-angels-dodgers-rangers-nationals-trade.html Question: You have a team that has about 7-8 All Stars on it. You are in a market where they've told you that you can support a $200 million dollar payroll or something around there. You're currently around $110 million because you have so many young, pre-arby players. How do you fill out your roster? Do you buy low on Jonathan Villar because it is "smart" or do you just say, "the heck with it" and sign Zobrist? Nobody is going to care that he's overpaid. Same with Lackey. I don't really think any of their signings are worth the money, but they're at an incredible competitive advantage already given that they have so many dominant players making $500K or $3 million/year. Most of these guys will be gone when and if they need to sign Bryant to a mega-deal. They probably still have the cash to just sign him to a pre-arby contract right now. You could argue that they should have gone with Greinke or Price if you didn't believe in their entire pitching rotation. However, those guys are likely going to be terrible contracts in 2-3 years when inevitable arm issues arise.

You're right that the Brewers will not be able to go bonkers like the Cubs, but in their own model they can get aggressive for a few years if they are smart leading up to it. If the Brewers develop a loaded core of young players and are smart for 2-3 years, they may have a payroll of $60-70 million with a loaded roster of young players. You can then go out and make risks and maybe even overpay a few vets for a few years. Maybe not the Heyward deal (I somewhat see it as a 3 year contract since Heyward will probably opt out), but you can waste money on a Ben Zobrist or Lackey (not saying I even like those moves). Probably cannot supplement it with Lester, though.

FWIW, Vargas is a switch hitter. Power hitters can develop later on, but so far he looks like a guy that isn't going to carry that bat offenses fear for somebody that is going to provide absolutely nothing else to a team. Still time for him to take that next step offensively. Probably better suited for the AL anyways.

Seems like Rosenthal wanted to fit a narrative and did anything he could do to do so. Note: I like Rosenthal. "Sabrmetrics guys don't value relievers" - Yes, I know that due to the total innings pitched, they get less value than some of the casual observers may give, but the stats guys still value the good ones. "Sabrmetrics guys believe that anyone can be closer" - This is basically true. Part of the reason they've signed "closers" is to keep the arbitration #s of their own relievers down. Otherwise, yes, a moderately good reliever could be a closer and you'd be fine. The only problem is that given the constraints of the silly position, you do have a reasonable amount of high-leverage, so the reliever has to be decent. "Give up the farm" - Post above touches on this package not being that massive.

Reports are that the Cards and Nats offered $200 million and some of the national writers are trying to piece together the logic on this. Here it is: This is a brilliant signing for both sides, unfortunately for the Brewers. Heyward has guaranteed himself $184 million if he suffers a career-ending injury this Spring Training. Yes, he turned down a little over $200 in that off-case. However, he's only 26 and has a front-loaded deal where he can opt out based on performance. If he performs, and let's say he gets $28 million instead of the expected $23 average in the early part of the contract, he can opt out and sign another mega deal at age 29, having already earned $84 million in 3 years. In theory, he can go sign another 8/$184 deal at age 29 and now he's made $270 million over 11 years instead of getting $205 with the Nats over 8 years and trying to sign another deal when he turns 35 at the end of the deal. For the Cubs, there is the risk that Heyward gets hurt and is an albatross contract for 8 years. However, it's at least front-loaded. Let's now assume that he performs well for the Cubs. He'll opt out, and while I'm sure the Cubs will miss their prime outfielder if they can't get him back, but they may actually be helping themselves out by not being able to sign a 29-year-old player to the next overblown contract he gets. In that case, they'd be risking themselves out to age 37 or 38 probably.

Sure, that is what happens with inflation in most cases. On top of that, Braun signed a "bargain" deal for financial security before he could hit the market. Heyward is 26 and according to Fangraphs was the #11 best position player in all of baseball last year because of his elite defense and solid offense. We'll see if that holds true. Braun is a below average defender, but not terrible. "Pretty good" bat, but he is probably only going to decline from here. Of course, for the next 2-3 years, it doesn't even matter what Braun makes to me. The Brewers' payroll is somewhat irrelevant at this point. I'd like to have an extra $20 million to take risks on vets or sprinkle over the organization, but the only point it will matter is probably the 2019/2020 part of things. Who knows if he's here at that point.

The difference between Heyward and Braun, is that Braun took the financial security early and left possible free agent money on the table while Heyward played the FA market. Also, Braun started his ML service/clock/ much later and would have hit FA at age 29 or so, not 26 like Heyward. Even though most of the new TV money hadn't kicked in in 2012...I believe that would have been the end of Braun's arbitration, correct? Can you imagine if Braun had just let his rookie/arby deal run its course and he hit the market after 2012, before the roid stuff? What does he get, 9/$200, even in the "old days" of 2012/2013? Then, in the middle of his first deal that bought out some of his free agency, he signed an extension for $100 million. Assuming he played things correctly in hindsight and got his big contract(s) before the roid stuff came out, I bet Braun might have grossed $230-$250 over his career, not the $170 or so that he's going to end up with.

Can we talk about defense? I know that everyone is getting inflated contracts as compared to even 5 years ago now, but Heyward plays some really good defense. If you believe in Fangraphs' WAR, he's about the same player Braun is in terms of value given their ages. Of course, contracts are quite inflated now.

The thing is, you can add guys to the lower minors who also have value, thats whats dissappointing. when i initially heard that they were adding 3 teenagers that hadnt played full season ball the first thing i thought, based on the other players rumored to be offered to lind, of similar value were Luis Gohara, nick neidert, and and nick wells. which made sense based on how it was reported that seattle "really sweetened the deal". then i thought "cant possible be Gohara, plus those 2" so i way lowered my expectations to dylan thompson in place of gohara. all four of those players are teenage pitchers that havent pitched full season a ball all four have more value than the other 3 put together. its just crazy! Have you scouted any of these players, or are you just going off the slightly higher $-signing expectations of Gohara/Thompson and the absolute unknown of Baseball America's rankings of rookie league 18 year olds with minimal scouting reports?