bill hAll Star

^^^ Lind had a .575 OPS vs. lefties this past year and has never been good at it. He's not a good defender. Therefore, he's not an everyday 1B and really should be platooned at DH.

It is nice being in the AL, you can always add a bat and make a place for him. 3B (probably) - Sano MAYBE Plouffe 1B/DH - Sano or Plouffe, Mauer, Byung-Ho Park, Kennys Vargas, maybe Oswaldo Arcia, maybe Max Kepler They may clear it out a little bit before the season, but right now too much of a logjam since they are probably compelled to at least keep Mauer on as a bench role guy. Given their depth there, I can't imagine them giving up a very promising young SP prospect for a guy to fit in a positional/organizational logjam on a 1-year contract.

I'm with you. I'm a fan (sort of) of Lohse and Garza signings when they think they are going to be a competitive team. I wouldn't have done the Lohse deal, but they're willing to risk a throwaway year or two at the end of the deal to get a good player while they think they have a chance to win. I'd rather build organically for a long-view of the franchise, but I can understand those moves and was OK with them. Here's another thing with Lucroy: We are very, very unlikely to compete this year and probably next year (the last 2 years of Luc's contract). We cannot guarantee that Luc will even stay here after his contract ends. We also may have to pony up a ton of money to keep him if we so choose. He's going to test the market as it's likely his last chance to do so. Now you're not only just hoping that if you can get Lucroy back for 2018-2023 or whatever the contract hoping that he doesn't majorly decline...you're also risking getting nothing but the comp pick if he walks away. Said comp pick probably won't be ready until 2021 or so. Get the prospects in the system now while Lucroy is at likely his highest value that we'll see while he's still under this contract.

The Cardinals have also avoided signing several players that they didn't think would be worth the money long-term. Namely, they decided not to pay Albert Pujols the absurd amount that he wanted. They let Lohse walk after they got what they could...Suppan...etc. Molina is starting to hit the part of his contract/career where he may be overpaid. However, the Cards are contending. You can afford to overpay a player there. They've basically been in a competitive window for 10+ years now. If the Brewers were in the Cubs', Pirates', or Cardinals' position right now, I'd be totally fine with asking Lucroy to take a 5 year extension right now. You risk overpaying a guy at the end of his deal to win right now. The Cards signed Molina a handful of years ago knowing that they'd be overpaying him later - but you deal with that to win the World Series when your window is open. You're right. Everyone can have their opinion on these things and I respect that you want to have Lucroy here. The difference between the Cardinals' situation and the Brewers is current outlook. Holliday and Molina can be your "overpaid vets" on the back-end of a competitive cycle. The Brewers had those and I didn't complain. The issue is that the Brewers need to open up a new competitive window and right now the best way to acquire young talent to open that is via trading the affordable, in his prime Jonathan Lucroy. I realize Lucroy is a fan favorite for the assumed team leadership and staff leadership. I can guarantee you in 2018 we'll have 5 new guys that we want to latch on to. I'm not going to complain at all if Phillips is a stud and we buy out 2 years of free agency for him for an 8 year, $100 million dollar deal. We'll have new loyalty to a player. I also won't complain if the team is an 85 win team in 2018 and we had to pick up a stopgap catcher (let's say Grandal, for example) and the Brewers then sign him to a 5 year extension, knowing that he may deteriorate in the last 2 years of that deal. That's where the difference is. It just doesn't make much sense to pay big bucks for a guy in non-competitive years just to have his declining years also be overpays at the back end. Again, I respect your opinion - but Lucroy is likely to be dealt. It just makes too much business sense. We'll all have our new favorite team leaders to follow in 2018/2019 and we can give Luc a standing O when he comes back to Miller Park. There will be plenty of players to be loyal fans of that we will have control of for 5-10 years. We'll have new fan favorites.

Not a terrible deal, but it depends if you think Hedges can ever hit the ball. I know he's supposed to be an elite catcher, but he's had some horrific batting seasons of late, including his first one in the majors. I'm not sure San Diego is a team that is buying right now, either.

Let me add - I would be a fan of swapping out Lucroy for a bunch of prospects and signing Avila. DISCLAIMER: I do not care whether or not a catcher is in the package - just give me the best collection of young players. We have different definitions of whether or not 7 or 8 Brewers could vastly exceed expectations and they could in turn win 80+ games, but I'd be glad to watch through that with the optimists. I'd maybe slightly prefer younger guys like Villar to fill in the voids that we have, but Avila is a fine buy low prospect that we can see if he can magically turn it around and turn into trade value. And yes, for the 2 or 3 of you that want 75 wins and want it now - maybe he could add some wins this year.

Greinke and Arrieta were both highly ranked prospects (would have risen higher on the charts if they remained in the minors beyond age 22 or 23). Jungmann, Perlta, Nelson are all entering their later 20s and all have been either mid-rotation or worse players so far in their careers. This is simply not true. Greinke might not be a great example but Arrieta debute at the age of 24 and did not figure it out til the age of 29. (Peralta debuted at 23, Nelson at 24, and Jungmann at 25 and all will be 26 this upcoming season). Dallas Keuchel of the Astros debuted at age 24, now 27 and figured it out. He was a 7th round draft pick who was never in the top 100 prospects nor in the top 20 of his own organization. (Peralta top 100 in 2011 & 12, Jungmann in 2011, Nelson in 2013). Max Scherzer was a 1st rounder and was only in the top 100 once as well. There are probably tons of examples but your belief that these three are back end of the rotation guys is just simply not correct. Sure - plenty of guys have figured it out later: Zack Greinke - 1st round, 6th pick Arrieta - Reached top 100 prospects at age 23. Keuchel is a good example but he's a 1 in 500 odds type of guy to emerge like that. For every one of him, there are 500 guys who didn't develop. Wily Peralta just struck out 5 batters per 9 last year. Lefties have hit a Khris Davis-esque .803 OPS against him in his career. This past year was .889. Jungmann did improve as he moved up the minors but his career minors ERA is 4.50. Nelson has been solid, not great. Could one of these guys break out? Absolutely. The problem is that there are probably ~100 current MLB/AAA pitchers with the pedigree/performance of these Brewers pitchers. 2 or 3 of them may become studs and 10 may become long-term MLB guys. The rest will flame out or be AAAA players. To believe that Jungmann is going to go the Keuchel route is very, very wishful thinking.

If we become the new Cardinals in coaching/defense to make every pitcher pitch way above their heads - I'd still rather build organically. Get 10 of those pitchers in the pipeline. If you can make Peralta or Jungmann into a upper-rotation guy with that magic pixie dust, then there are 100 other pitchers out there that you can do it with.

Greinke and Arrieta were both highly ranked prospects (would have risen higher on the charts if they remained in the minors beyond age 22 or 23). Jungmann, Perlta, Nelson are all entering their later 20s and all have been either mid-rotation or worse players so far in their careers.

It would be a tad frustrating not to get a higher draft pick, but I won't care about 80 wins as long as they aren't making "win now" trades at the deadline. If the eye is still on the future then they can win that many. I can't imagine they will in this division, though. Especially if Lucroy and/or Lind are gone - you have Davis and Braun as good players and one of the young guys will probably put up a nice season. Pitching staff would be lower end in the league. Once an injury or two happens you'll have one of the worst teams in the league anyways. It's just not unheard of for guys like Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann to take the next step and really be dominant. You pair that with a solid bullpen and you just never know what you get out of that equation. It's baseball, players/teams have good and bad years and sometimes it can be unexplainable. Yes, it is very unheard of. You're talking about a guy slotted as an MLB #3 starter and 2 guys that seem to be MLB #5 pitchers at best. It's just as likely that Philly's rotation of Hellickson, Morgan, and Eichoff turns into Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine. As long as the Brewers are playing for the future, I'll be rooting for them to win the games and for the young guys to improve - that includes Peralta, Jungmann, Nelson. It wouldn't surprise me I guess if Nelson became a borderline All-Star player or one of Peralta or Jungmann looked like a lower-end MLB rotation mainstay. All of those guys becoming stud pitchers? No way.

It would be a tad frustrating not to get a higher draft pick, but I won't care about 80 wins as long as they aren't making "win now" trades at the deadline. If the eye is still on the future then they can win that many. I can't imagine they will in this division, though. Especially if Lucroy and/or Lind are gone - you have Davis and Braun as good players and one of the young guys will probably put up a nice season. Pitching staff would be lower end in the league. Once an injury or two happens you'll have one of the worst teams in the league anyways.

That is so incredibly wrong I don't even know how to respond. Chris Sale is only worth one prospect that projects to MAYBE have ace potential? No that is incredibly stupid. So why would Khris Davis be worth a B-prospect because that is what he ended up being in the MLB? Good question, I know. I might have exaggerated his lack of return, but he is an older player (for only being 2.5 years into the league) that is not a great defender and has a low OBP. He may get a nice prospect in return, though. Just not Gallo. Maybe something in the ballpark of what Trumbo fetched. Something in-between Skaggs or Castillo value?

What in the heck are people smoking here with this Wily Peralta love? Guy only has 3 more (more expensive) years of control remaining and all he has proven to be is maybe a #4 or even #5 if the pitching staff is good. He cannot get lefties out to save his life. Why would teams give up MLB top 10 prospects or superstar players for him? Lots of overvaluing of prospects all around. The Seager one is just crazy. Gallo may have the negative that he's a high strikeout risk...but what you guys are suggesting is akin to giving a trade of Braun and Orlando Arcia for Plouffe and Tommy Milone in the Fielder/Gallo for Peralta/Davis deal. The only positive for Texas is trying to get out of Prince's long-term contract that he may not live up to...but I don't think Texas necessarily cares about that. Also, Prince might be productive all the way through that contract at DH. Peralta and Davis will probably net 2 B-level prospects in a trade...because that's what they were and that is what they are proving to be.

So he's acquired two guys who are fringey major leaguers that have to be on the 25 man roster this season for two guys that don't. That doesn't really make sense to me. Maybe he's conducting his own Rule 5 draft here. Taking slightly higher-ceiling guys from Seattle and Houston who have excess MLB depth at the positions in return for his guys that the other teams can keep in AAA.

They very well may have them. Long offseason to go here. Might want to just be sorting out the AAAA roster of low ceiling prospects that they'll trot out there this year.

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/400x/46323675.jpg Sorry, I'm not trying to get in a personal battle, but they need to be realistic (which I think the Brewers are). I'd slot the Brewers at 70-75 wins in an optimistic situation even with Jordan Zimmermann, which means I would not sign Jordan Zimmermann and I would trade off all of my players of value before they have less or no value. Anyways, all a matter of opinion - but I think Stearns will continue playing for the future and only worrying about stopgap/buy low players like Villar for the current core.

It would not contend. Even if the Brewers spent on Jordan Zimmermann, the Cubs are probably signing another big pitcher. That means the Cubs, Cards, and Pirates would all have probably 3 or 4 pitchers in their starting 5 that are better than what the Brewers offer in theirs. They'd have better bullpens, probably better defense, and I'd say better bats at 5-6 spots on the diamond. The only spots that they might not are Braun, Lind, Luc - and I'd venture to guess that 1 or 2 of those guys will get hurt or underwhelm. Look at this year's playoff field with the exception of STL, Texas, maybe Toronto, and the Yankees. Every single one of them bottomed out for 2-3 years at some point and rebuilt their farm system. Houston and the Cubs were recently the worst teams in the league. The Royals and Pirates were a little bit longer ago. The teams that didn't just blow it up and rebuild have big payrolls or have made a deal with the devil (STL).

if Lind is our opening day first baseman, I quit Quit what? The market for Lind could be softer than you think. It might be better in July. If the Brewers put out an opening day lineup of Lucroy catching, Villar at 3B, Segura at SS, Gennett at 2B, Lind at 1B. Davis in LF, Santana in CF, and Braun in RF, that's a lineup with 4 potential 25 HR bats, one of the best catchers in baseball, 3 potential 25 SB guys, and 4 guys 26 or under, and only one not under control through 2017 and they'd still have Arcia and Phillips knocking on the door. That lineup could and probably will be altered somewhat, but Stearn appears interested on being at least competitive if not contending while he builds. The only thing that would keep them from having a team capable of contending is lack of top of the rotation arms. Now if Nelson were to take that final step and be consistent and they splurged on a Jordan Zimmermann, and one or two young pitchers stepped forward, well that's a lot to ask admittedly. I like that Stearn acquired a guy who'll be on the 2016 opening day roster. It shows he's focusing on the here and now and not dreaming entirely about 2020 and beyond like many of you on here. I'm sorry but that team would not contend. Maybe in a weaker division...but not this one. The majority of that team is either not good or will be gone in a year. It would be pointless to keep Lind and pointless to "try to contend" this year. I feel like we're getting into Milwaukee Bucks 2002-2013 discussions right now.

Vs. RHP - Gennett at 2B, Villar/Segura 50/50 split at SS Vs. LHP - Villar at 2B, Segura at SS Yes, I know that Segura does not necessarily crush LH pitching as a platoon type.

I would argue irrationally early to make any concrete judgments involving performance. I mean, he got rid of Reid Nichols... that alone might make a successful offseason. Oh Im not judging the guy based off two trades. Im just stating what I have seen so far which is just Ehh. We got rid of our closer and a useful pitching prospect for two fringy guys at positions that aren't of need assuming your are bullish on Arcia being a 150 game top of the order type. Again its early and I am not jumping one way or the other. Im a Brewer fan so clearly Im patient. "Our closer" could be replaced with "40th best reliever in baseball that is older and has a somewhat high price tag" to make things a bit more fair. Positions of need right now: Every position on the field. I like Arcia's chances to be a stud but we're going to have to assume 40% of the guys we are (over) excited about are going to bust. Get me 3 good-to-great or at least useful prospects at every position on the field and only the cream will rise. If Villar is magically a wonderful buy low prospect and Arica is also good, you can just move Villar's position or flip him (with higher value) for a position of need as we move closer to being good again.

I don't mind getting Chisenhall if the price is something other than a very young prospect. Santana is under team control through 2021 and Chisenhall only is until 2018. I'm OK with flipping Chisenhall again if he shows something, but I'd rather we give up something with similar or less control to get him. Otherwise, I'd just take my chances and try to get Chisenhall 2-3 years from now if I'm dying to have him.

Arcia is going to be a stud but Villar looks like Tulowitzki next to Rivera and Sardinas in terms of bat. Not a bad buy low guy that is still very young. Maybe he flames out and is just a utility guy, maybe he carves out a 3B, SS (short term), or 2B role. A switch-hitting guy with positional flexibility could be useful in a trade down the road as well.

I agree with almost your entire post...I do think he may come in and pitch long relief here. His stock is that low and there are only so many SP openings around the league. That said, you can put him at #5 if you're dying for a reclamation project and just leave someone in the minors or mid relief until injury occurs.

Colorado somewhat tried to do this a few years ago (not necessarily for league-wide SABRmetrics, more because of the Coors factor). It didn't end well for them. That is not extremely relevant, though...I would be interested to see teams do this. I think that pitcher contracts/the union may have a say.

He actually is under team control through the 2018 season. Don't doubt you, as certain sources can be incorrect...but I'm looking at Cot's (Baseball Prospectus) Looking at his service time in general, I would agree that it looks more like he'll be a FA in 2019. Either way, it does not change the idea. No interest on filling a hole with a mediocre player that will be gone before the rebuild is done or just as it is finishing.