bill hAll Star

No, he was saying the "next man up" in most cases is already 27 or 28 if we trade some of these guys. He referred to Maldonado being about as old as Luc and Rogers being fairly old to fill in for Lind.

The Brewers could start several 43 year-old-players at some positions for 2016 and 2017 for all I care. I want a major collection of young, star-potential players ready to play in 2018 or so. As the above poster stated, Lucroy is only going downhill from here, so trade him (and who cares if Maldonado is the temporary replacement?).

Eh, great bullpen arms can lose gas over time. By 2018 or 2019 he could be a shell of his former self. We can find more in the future.

Gallo is only 21. He may always be a high K guy, but he looked pretty solid for a 21 year old in first AAA/MLB experience.

Those numbers are worse than the ones that Hunter Morris put up in AA at a younger age. You can't justify completely ruling out a prospect by some mediocre numbers, but most guys at age 25 should be destroying the best hitter's league in all of baseball if they're really going to be that good.

Is it multiple people on this board that are big fans of Kivlehan? I keep seeing his name thrown around. What is the infatuation? I don't know the scouting report, but he has a sub-.800 OPS in the PCL at age 25 and some say that he is mistake-probe in the field. He may improve that next year as he seems to be a guy that figures out a league a year later, but I'm not sure he is even an MLB player. If you're in the PCL and are supposed to have a bat as a corner player, you must hit over .800 OPS there. If not, seeya. His .313 OBP makes me think he may be sub-.300 in the majors. To be fair, Josh Donaldson had this late blooming progression, but he's the exception, not the rule.

Another key note, to add to my lengthy posts in the pitching thread about cycling in a lot of buy low vets to peddle off or see what they have...is that you can see what a young pitcher has in middle relief. You don't just have 5 rotation spots to audition fringe players...you could have Jungmann and another new prospect as garbage, middle relief guys. When we're 20 games under .500, just let them pitch 4 innings at any point the first guy doesn't get past the 5th.

Agree with this. The ideal (within the realm of possibility) season would be to see what the Braves had this year. Smoke and mirrors start for faux contention. Trade some of the vets away, reality sets in, top 5 pick.

Yes, and to add to that, I'd say the Davis/Nelson line is the end of my line for selling everything off. I'm just going to make a strong assumption that 2019 is the earliest possible date where we're serious about contending. Davis' final contract year is 2019 so I probably trade he and Scooter if I haven't already. Unless we're serious contenders right away, I probably trade Nelson as well as his last year is 2020. Of course, a ton of assumptions being made there, but that's probably when things should be set for a nice window of contention.

See my above post. Currently, Nelson is the only worthy MLB pitcher on the roster. I think Davies may be a back-end rotation guy for cheap. Jungmann probably isn't and Peralta is good enough but should be dealt as soon as his stock gets any higher. Point is, we should be shuffling out a lot of pitchers. Guys that could be mainstays like Lopez will eventually get their share, but there is going to be a lot of crap to sift through from the young guys. Heck, even with Nelson. The Astros dealt Bud Norris pretty early on and got Hader, Hoes (AAA/MLB depth), and a competitive balance pick. The Brewers just need to keep throwing darts at the board and selling them off if any hit. Having cheap vets to either soak up innings or peddle off will just be another aspect of the rebuild.

This is all about bringing in vets and even our current guys that have anything over a year or two of experience to continue flipping for more depth and help. It's true that the Brewers, given they have a lot less major contracts to burn, will not be able to turn this sort of profit on working with vets, but you can get depth. Again, look at the Cubs: Samardzija - Addison Russell and Dan Strailey (used in Fowler trade) Garza - Olt (he failed in the majors), Grimm Dempster - Kyle Hendricks Maholm - Arodys Vizcaíno Scott Feldman - Arrieta and Strop Hammel - Was in the Russell trade and then signed back. Of course, this is a team that already had more money and some of these guys on the roster that also had the Edwin Jackson disaster, but this is what I'm looking for. Hopefully Garza can be flipped at the right time, sell Peralta when his value gets higher, sell Nelson in a year or two if he has high stock, cycle some buy-low vets in looking to flip, etc. Less money to play with than the Cubs, but a smaller-scale idea of this. Bring in some buy low guys and see if you can milk some value out of them.

Honestly, given that I don't think anyone beyond Nelson as your #4, Lopez, and maybe Jungmann or Davies as fringe MLB/#5 guys ever being a part of a competitive 2018 or beyond Brewers team, I don't know what the issue with Garza is. I don't claim to know too much about the guy, I know he's had a few scuffles behind closed doors, but I can't imagine him being that bad that I'd be afraid to put all of the fringe MLB starters that I have in the same rotation with him. You either have to trade him away (and probably take back another player with baggage or give up value to get rid of him), cut him, or pitch him. Just let him soak up some innings and keep some of our guys in the minors a little longer.

Johnson is Casey McGehee, just with bigger LH/RH splits and needs 2 more years to catch up to McGehee's weak career stats (Johnson is 2 years younger).

In terms of the guys up right now, my views are: A solid long-term piece that I'd still consider trading in a year or two: Nelson Take him or leave him: Peralta (won't be here when the Brewers contend again unless it is as a cheap swing guy) Never was that excited about, but is cheap help and worth seeing what happens: Jungmann Low ceiling but worth having around for awhile: Davies What I'd do is target buy low candidates to slot in the rotation. If it's a free agent, maybe Happ (his stock rose late), Masterson, Morrow. Edwin Jackson basically on a nothing deal. Kennedy's stock is probably too high but maybe something if it's a short deal. Fister maybe if he's cheaper than you'd think. Look into trades for similar above players. Maybe eat the contract of a guy that used to have good stuff and take a prospect along with it. Garza, Peralta, Nelson, and probably Davies start it out for sure. One of the external guys can join that as the 5th. If you find a 2nd buy low candidate, Davies can maybe go back down for just a little while until we need a spot. Jungmann can do long relief so we can still see what he's got. As somebody gets hurt or as you peddle off Garza, add one of the young guys into the mix. Some might get mad for not getting to "see what we have" with this strategy, but I'd imagine we deal away Peralta, Garza, and/or these buy low candidates sometime in the next 2 years...with all of the concerns of the listed group and the idea of buying low, we'll need more internal guys to fill the rotation soon anyways.

To sum up what I had said, imagine in 2019 we have this outlook: C - ? 1B - Braun 2B - Stud player acquired from Lucroy trade SS - Arcia 3B - ? OF - Santana, Phillips, Clark, and more in the pipeline SP - An ace, 2-3 rotation guys, 2-3 young fringe guys, more in the pipeline Now you have a payroll of $55 million. Go blow your money on a declining, still good, 33-year-old 3B for 3 years, @35 million and trade one of your pipeline arms for a good catcher. In 2021 when the filled in players all still look the same, you'll probably have a 3B ready to fill in for the old guy you picked up. I wouldn't be angry if we wanted to flip an OF for a 3B prospect of equal value or something, but I would be annoyed if we dealt an OF for a lesser 3B prospect to "fill the hole," kept Lucroy around because we're nervous about catcher, or signed some retread 3B because we're terrified about the short and long term of 3B while we rebuild.

It is probably unfair to lump several posters discussing multiple different positions together, but there seems to be mass hysteria/concern over 3B, 1B, and C in the future and the fact that we don't have a stud prospect in the wings for those positions causing a reaction that we need to overpay the current guy to stay, bring in some veteran retread to feel safe, or immediately trade a surplus position for one of these. We just saw the Cubs and Astros come out of a rebuild. The Astros had a surplus (they thought) of OF, no 3B since Dominguez was a failure, and a shortstop that was maybe too far away to be ready to start the season. What did the Astros do? They signed Rasmus to an affordable deal to platoon in the OF, shipped Fowler off for Valbuena who could platoon at 3B, brought in Lowrie to bridge the gap at 3B/SS, and eventually traded for Gomez when the OF didn't look as nice as they had thought. The Cubs weren't sure Schwarber was ready to catch and they didn't have a stud CF ready...they also weren't totally confident in the OF guys just yet. Enter a Denorfia/Coghlan platoon and trading for Fowler to cover CF as well as acquiring Montero for a catcher platoon. Point is, out of the 3-4 positions that we aren't positive about going forward (3B, 2B, 1B, C), probably 1-2 of those will be solved via the draft with a closer-to-ready prospect or will be covered in the Lind/K-Rod/Lucroy trades. In 3 years, if 3B is still a barren wasteland, if THEN we have a pitching surplus, we could deal one for a 3B. If not, we'll have a payroll of probably $60 million of players (if Stearns doesn't make silly long-term investments) and we can invest in a vet to fill in. Panicking and thinking you have a surplus 2-3 years before these guys are ready or a deficit 2-3 years before you're supposed to contend will lead to losing a trade or blowing a ton of money on a washed up veteran before you need to. Just let it play out and fill the 1 or 2 holes in 2019 if they still exist when you know exactly where your surplus is and have plenty of money to spend on overpriced vets that you know will contribute in 2019.

It doesn't make the rebuild impossible, but I would imagine that the Twins lament the idea that they have a $23 million dollar "catcher" now playing first base for 3 more years as they are ascending on their rebuild. These contracts rarely work out...and it's not like we are going to say "eh, I'll take the risk 3 years down the road, we're contenders right now." We're not contenders right now. Could Lucroy buck the trend and be a worthwhile catcher beyond the age of 31? Sure, maybe. I wouldn't bet on it, though. I'd love to have a clean slate when we are on an ascension. If Luc signs an extension beyond this deal, there's about an 80-90% chance that he's not going to be worth it when the Brewers are good again. I'd rather trade for the current version of Lucroy somewhat similar to the Cubs getting Miguel Montero from somebody else in 2019 if we're still devoid of a catcher and has 2 years left on his deal.

Chances are, if you keep him around past his contract, the system will still be void of a good catcher. Many catchers have fallen off a cliff lately at 31 or 32 years old, so now you'll have an old, declining, overpaid Luc AND no prospects in the pipeline.

Kivlehan does look like a guy that figures it out a little while after he gets moved up...but a sub .800 OPS in the PCL is not very promising.

That Chris Johnson contract was a major head-scratcher the moment it was signed. He had a Mcgehee-esque BABIP half-season and they signed him to I believe a 4 or 5 year deal for substantial money when he was subpar at every other aspect of the game otherwise. He's never been an above-replacement player except for said stretch. I can see savings as reason to take the trade, but given that we won't be too active in free agency, unless the savings are being used to take a new risky/high-reward player on, I'd pass. Garza has been a valuable player in his career at many points. Do I see him ever hitting that again? Probably not. The chances of him getting there are much higher than Johnson, though. If he ever realizes that, he can be dealt for value.

Not impossible, but much harder to do. Look at the Mets. Sure, they got 38 games of a pretty good David Wright performance this year, but they cobbled together 3B out of a bunch of free agents/dump-offs at the deadline/etc. and Wright has been nothing special on offense at 3B in the postseason (this is not to rip him, but I'm just saying if there is a year or two of your contention window where you still need a 3B, you can string things along). The Astros platooned Valbuena there this year with replacement-level righties. I just feel like one or two offensive positions are relatively easy to fill with platoons or smart management. I just see all of this talk of signing veterans because there is a hole or trading for touted prospects because there is a hole. The desperation to fill the hole will end up in a losing result.

So much can happen in the next few years. I wouldn't be dying to strip away depth at another spot or trade pitching away to fill a hole when we shouldn't be worried about contending for a few years. We could find our next McGehee at 3B, we could draft a college 3B that is almost ready, we could net a 3B in a Lind trade, etc. Even if all roads fail and the team is young and ready to be good in 2018, you can overspend on some stopgap vets to platoon there.

I realize that you said "I know where they play" qualifier, but here is what their recent offenses (I kept some of the mainstays in it) would look like in a neutral field. CF - Ben Revere (Blackmon) RF - Carlos Beltran (current abilities) (Carlos Gonzalez) SS - Jhonny Peralta (Tulowitzki) 3B - Todd Frazier (Arenado) LF - Christian Yelich (Dickerson) - Stubbs platooned with him a few years ago to the most amazing H/A splits ever. 1B - Matt Adams/CJ Cron platoon (Morneau/Cuddyer) or Matt Clark/Jason Rogers platoon (Paulsen/Rosario) 2B - Adam Rosales or any AAAA caliber player (ALL STAR DJ LeMaheiu) C - Tyler Flowers (Hundley/Rosario)

I doubt Colorado would give away McMahon for Peralta, Nelson, or Jungmann. Peralta and Jungmann aren't good enough of prospects to fetch a top 50 young player and Nelson is still probably not good enough, plus, this sounds crazy, but the Rockies might be retooling again and probably don't want a guy that's already in the majors (I know that sounds silly, but when they come out of their rebuild he may be near the end of his contract).

I had a similar thought of the negative angle of their rotation recently. That said, they have 3-5 more years on all of these guys until they become free agents. Sure, you're probably going to lose 1 of them per year to arm issues, but you've still got 4 really good pitchers then. Even though the Mets are a big market, I would not keep really any of these guys around for their 2nd contract. I'd keep just drafting a ton of high-upside pitching and developing it. I'd overspend to get offense (guys that are all at least decent defenders, though). I'm going to list 6 pitchers because let's assume 1 TJ/shoulder issue each year. 2016: Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler (returns mid-season), Thor, Matz, Niese 2017: Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Thor, Matz, stopgap vet 2018: Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Thor, Matz, new prospect A 2019: deGrom, Wheeler, Thor, Matz, new prospect A 2020: deGrom, Thor, Matz, new prospect A, stopgap vet 2021: Thor, Matz, new prospect A, stopgap vet, prospect B 2022: Would look new unless they choose to pay Thor/Matz Yes, there is the Cubs scenario where Prior/Wood are just done, but barring that, they could have 4 of these guys in the rotation every year (with a lucky year or two where they have 5) for the next 5-6 years while they can just try to keep grooming prospects to fill in if necessary, even if you assume a guy sits out all year getting TJ. They even have guys like Montero who throws some gas but isn't a complete stud prospect waiting around for depth.