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brewjihad

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Everything posted by brewjihad

  1. brewjihad
    Minor quibble with you here, X-- Scarpetta has an ERA over 4 in A ball. He has been a little bit of a disappointment. Peralta is interesting, but hasn't dominated either. Maybe your radar, but not mine. Is that all you go off is results? When do you consider a guys stuff? First of all, Peralta has struck out 11 per 9 and walked 2.5 per 9 while giving up 1 homer. I consider that absolutely dominating. Scarpetta's striking out 11/9 IP as well, he's walking 5 but that's understandable at his age. I'm a little confused at your philosophy-- you're looking at non-peripheral results and not the stuff and potential of those two, and then your justification for Rogers is his stuff? Peralta throws 94. Rogers, in 20 innings, has struck out 7.5 and walked 6.5. I'm anxious to see what he turns in to, but I think a guy like Peralta (especially when he's throwing 93 and 94) would undoubtedly be a better prospect than him at this point.
  2. brewjihad
    You can not be the biggest fan of UZR and still recognize that if he rated at -23 and -37 the past two years, and -6 so far this year, he probably has less than stellar range. He cancelled out his hitting value entirely last season.
  3. brewjihad
    7.43: 2.15 is about what I would expect out of him. His FIP is at 3.73, he's doing well with the things he can control. When I saw him pitch I was impressed with his offspeed stuff-- good curve and seemingly a pretty good change. He was throwing 88-89 then too.
  4. brewjihad
    I've been cued. I'm not on top of this as I thought I would be. Awesome, we'll see how the negotiations go.
  5. brewjihad
    The platoon split for Alcides is a concern, yes, but let's keep it in perspective-- even Hardy's career line is .258/.312/.404 vRHP, and Hart's is .263/.305/.464. He's a little beyond what you'd normally expect for a platoon split, but we shouldn't expect him to be hitting .300 against righties. And as TLB mentioned, that's one reason to keep him at AAA for a while yet. And in terms of BABIP, I did a long story at BCB a while back and eventually concluded that because of a bunch of factors we can expect a .330-.340ish BABIP for him (in the minors, anyway) due to his good rates of contact, rare popouts, frequent bunt hits, and speed.
  6. brewjihad
    Quite the answers from the scout: Adrian Gonzalez: Yes. Victor Martinez: Yes. Nick Johnson: No. Adam Dunn; No. Miguel Tejada: No. J.J. Hardy: No. Corey Hart: No. Jhonny Peralta: No. Brad Hawpe: Maybe. I would probably only say yes to Hardy and Gonzalez. I would have answered "absolutely not ever under any circumstances" to Brad Hawpe.
  7. brewjihad
    And I do agree with everything you say, but going back to my initial question... are there really 7 players to be ranked ahead of him? It seems like BA just forgot about him.
  8. brewjihad
    I just dont think his stuff is there yet. As a first-hand observer, he's been sitting 89-91 this spring and hit 93 a few times. One scout said said he had a "major-league curveball". And he's hit 6 homers in each of the last two FVA seasons, and is hitting about .450 again this year... for the second-best team in the state, and the FVA is a pretty good conference. And he only walked about 8 guys all year.
  9. brewjihad
    I know I'm biased towards Brad, but why wouldn't he make the BA top prospect list for Wisconsin, especially when two other HS pitchers, Suminski and Effertz, are on it? I'm curious as to what you guys know about these two, because I find it hard to believe they're better pro prospects than Schreiber right now, even if he does have a pretty strong commitment to Purdue.
  10. brewjihad
    Interesting... Minorleaguesplits.com. Up until your post, I was 100% sure thier MLE calc. was idiot-proof enough even for me. To clarify, I did enter in the league & park from their dropdown menus, so I think that means it's park-adjusted. Park and league adjusted, yes. If you go to an individual player page and click the tab for MLE, it automatically adjusts for luck as well.
  11. brewjihad
    Mauer was worth 5.9 wins and Morneau 3.5. Realize that fangraphs does not measure catcher defense at all, they only account for the difficulty of the position. You can probably add close to a win to that number, because Mauer is by most accounts one of the best defensive catchers in the league.
  12. brewjihad
    Just getting caught up on some link reports and I saw your link. I'm sure this is confusing, but brewjihad=jihad=Jordan M. I changed my BCB user name a while back. We're all the same person. About Nieves, maybe "big" isn't the right word, but he looks taller than 6' and I would still use the word lanky. I don't think he's 6', 165 right now. He seemed pretty tall to me, and as you know I was impressed with him.
  13. brewjihad
    Shouldn't that number be retired? Anyway, the last backup 3B to wear that number fared well.
  14. brewjihad
    Thanks. If anyone else is interested (and considering the forum, I'd assume yes) Jeff has recently added TotalZone defensive stats (compared to average runs) as well as spray charts to the Minor League Splits database. It's a great resource.
  15. brewjihad
    The difference is probably that Jeff's data is generated from minor league play-by-play logs, though he probably told you that already if you emailed him. Those can be prone to error. The disparities in the two you listed were only two at-bats and 1 hit. It's possible Jeff might exclude something from AB that B-R includes, like reached on fielder's choice or something obscure.
  16. brewjihad
    I liked when Micheal went into the park and started throwing bread for the birds. I loved two subtle things in this scene-- first, he says that there is "a man on a star", which made me laugh because that's something he would say, not planet but star. Then I almost died laughing when he says how the man looks at him through a "microscope" and feels sorry for him.
  17. brewjihad
    Chuck James won't pitch at all this year, he's out with an injury.
  18. brewjihad
    Fangraphs total value (WAR) estimates, which include offensive runs from wOBA, defense from UZR and positional + replacement adjustments, give these numbers for Hardy and Fielder: Hardy was worth 4.5 and 5.5 wins in 07 and 08. Fielder was worth 5 and 3 wins in 07 and 08. I'm guessing MLB GMs value Fielder higher, but I would value Hardy higher and the numbers agree with me. However, Hardy does have one less year of control, which would be a negative on his trade value.
  19. brewjihad
    Can I contribute something here? I really think some people are still under the impression that average=bad. Here's a nice little post from R.J. Anderson showing how that's not true. Weeks being a tick above average offensively and a little below defensively makes him about a just slightly below average player. That's still +15 to +20 wins above replacement overall, or 1.5-2.0 wins, for around $2 million. The going rate for 1.5-2.0 wins is around $8 million or so-- Hoffman projects right around 1.5 and got $6. Then, of course, you have to factor in the possibility that he improves defensively and/or offensively this year to get an accurate picture. If an upgrade falls into your lap for second base, you take it, but I really don't think you're going to find a better value.
  20. brewjihad
    Just for reference: Average NL 2B: .271/.338/.408/.746 Rickie 08: .234/.342/.398/.740 Rickie Career: .245/.352/.406/.758 Rickie was slightly above league average last year, and even more in his career. His .334 wOBA last year was a point above the overall league average.
  21. brewjihad
    Fangraphs has UZR and pretty much every other useful stat (except tRA maybe). Here are Hall's fielding numbers. Here's a quick explanation, from Fangraphs. The stat was developed by Michael Lichtman and only recently made available on fangraphs.
  22. brewjihad
    UZR includes errors in its calculation, and Hall was +6.3 runs above average at third in his playing time in 2008. He was +7 at short during the 2006 season. Hall is a very good infielder by almost any measure.
  23. brewjihad
    Miles has solid defensive numbers and a decent OBP He doesn't really have either of these things, though. His career OBP is .329, last year's .355 was fueled by an unsustainable line drive rate and a really high BABIP. If he hits .280-.290 like he should, he'll be right at .320 OBP again. I don't know what you're referencing for "solid defensive numbers". UZR says he's about -3 runs at second and quite a bit worse at shortstop. PRM didn't like him last year at all: 93 ratio.
  24. brewjihad
    Clancy, the suspense is killing us! This thread reminds me of one of those elementary school games. "Mike is taller than Cindy, Chris is taller than Jean, Suzie is shorter than Luke, Cindy is shorter than Jean, and Luke is taller than Mike. Who is the tallest?" I really hope Carlos George is on someone's ballot. If you've never heard of him, check out his hitting+fielding stats at MiLB or something.
  25. brewjihad
    The Rays are really only looking at Burrell as a DH, they're also looking at Dunn and Giambi. They acquired Matt Joyce from the Tigers to play right field. It's an interesting proposal, but I doubt they'd want Hart to DH.
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