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brewjihad

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Everything posted by brewjihad

  1. brewjihad
    He should really be a left fielder, he's like -15 to -20 runs in center by a lot of metrics. You'd also be buying really high on him, he will probably drop some offensive production this year. He's a good option in left or maybe right, but he loses way too much of his value by playing center for me to even consider him.
  2. brewjihad
    Capuano's been at an average of about 86 in his three full years with the Brewers, per Fangraphs. Unless you think he won't be able to get that back because of the surgery, there's no reason to think he'll throw 84. Just to further reinforce how unlucky he was in 2007, we have a stat now that didn't exist then: tRA. Capauno put up a 4.02 tERA (tRA on the ERA scale, tRA * .93), over a full run off of his actual 5.10.
  3. brewjihad
    I actually don't hope they give up Escobar+ for Peavy (assuming the rumor has merit). Don't get me wrong, he would slide right up there with Yo at the top of the rotation nicely, but away from Petco, he's a career 3.70 ERA pitcher. I wouldn't totally object to a Peavy deal either, but I keep thinking of the Mariners last year and Erik Bedard. They gave up Adam Jones, though he's a CF he's regarded a lot like Escobar, and some other pieces for him and then fell of a cliff, in part because he got hurt. It'd be worth pursuing, but I wouldn't give up too much for Peavy.
  4. brewjihad
    He walked in 6 1/3 innings. This is a funny ESPN typo. It's like they wanted to say "He walked (OBSCENE) in 6 1/3 innings."
  5. brewjihad
    Because the Yankees have told the Brewers they cannot have any of pitchers on their 40-man roster, Igawa is the best the Brewers can do. Brewers asked for Phil Coke, Jose Veras and Mark Melancon and quickly were told no. I'm confused here. I don't object to trading Cameron for Cabrera and a pitcher. But if the Yankees don't want to give us a decent pitcher, why make the deal? Just hang onto Cam for a while, he'll have plenty of value later. If we're taking a worse pitcher and paying more money for him, I can't understand why Doug is so anxious to get this done. They either have to cover all of Igawa's salary, give us a better pitcher, or no deal. I really don't think this is how the negotiations went. Doug: We want one of these 3 players. Cashman: You cannot have them, here, take our worse player that is due a lot of money. Doug: OK. Now let's bicker about how much of the money you will pay for him. We'll wrap this up Monday. It is the New York Post, though. I'm not going to get too worked up about anything until it's official.
  6. brewjihad
    Even if Melvin's comment is true, it's unnecessary. It's not a Melvin quote, it's a quote from the article written by Haudricourt. Melvin had nothing to do with it, this was just Tom throwing an opinionated, unnecessary comment into a news story.
  7. brewjihad
    Then why would they be turning their attention to Pettitte, who is also a type A free agent that wouldn't let them get a big free agent hitter? Don't have time to look it up now, but wouldn't it be different if a team is signing one of their own type As as opposed to another team's? Maybe that's why they want Pettite.
  8. brewjihad
    If we're talking about who you'd rather have as a starting CFer, I'd actually take Melky because of the enormous difference in defense. If we're talking reserve, it's Gabe for me. You would think this, but UZR anyway disagrees. In his career, Gross is about 15 runs above average on the corners and -2 in limited time in center (all these numbers per 150 games). Cabrera is about -10 in center in his career and exactly average on the corners. This last year, though, Cabrera was average in center, so maybe he's improving. It will happen WAY before 2 years. Trade deadline.
  9. brewjihad
    Both are absolutely terrible in the field, about -15 to -20 runs, but Ibanez will be 40 by the end of this contract and isn't likely to get better. Another reason this is weird/dumb for the Phils is they didn't even offer Burrell arbitration, and they have to give up their first-round pick to get Ibanez.
  10. brewjihad
    UZR has him at -3.4 per 150 at third in his career. Bill Hall at third is at 7.1/150 career. I really hope they have a better plan than this. Lamb's career line vRHP is only .281/.336/.422/.758, and he had an absolutely terrible year last season with the Twins at .233/.276/.322. I could handle his production at third if he was a plus defender, but he's a below average hitter vRHP and a below average defender at third. I'm really not a fan of this platoon plan, I hope Melvin has something in the works.
  11. brewjihad
    http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/7280/BadAngle.gif http://i27.tinypic.com/28akex2.jpg These are from Lookout Landing. Ask any Mariner fan about Raul's D. That's why it wouldn't be so bad for the Cubs to sign him. He was 11 runs below average last year, 23 the year before according to UZR. Dunn's pretty bad, too-- -10 per year in his career per UZR.
  12. brewjihad
    I can't justify the money he'd require for the strikeouts. I realize he walks a lot, but I would rather see us go after Ibanez than Dunn frankly. I do think Braun Fielder Dunn in the middle is intriguing though Things Adam Dunn is better at than Raul Ibanez: - Getting on base - Hitting for power - Playing defense - Hitting home runs - Being consistent - Walking - Being younger Things Raul Ibanez is better at than Adam Dunn: - Hitting for average - Not striking out
  13. brewjihad
    For what it's worth, Abreu is a pretty terrible defensive right fielder these days by most metrics. Some AL teams might want him as a DH. He'd be a nice bat to add, but it should be considered that he has negative defensive value.
  14. brewjihad
    I'm still baffled as to how Chase Utley could hit .292/.380/.535 and by all accounts play better much defense than Pedroia, not to mention play for the World Series champion, and finish 15th in the NL. You might say Pedroia's .326/.376/.493 tends to be overrated because of the average, but they almost gave the NL MVP to Howard and he's certainly not a high-average guy.
  15. brewjihad
    Probably around 2, maybe 2.5 if Cabrera is more like 2008 than his previous years. That is not worth $9M I'd say that it almost is exactly worth $9 mil. The price of a win on the free agent market is about $4.5 million.
  16. brewjihad
    I don't understand this statement. Based on your graph, he had a better than league average BABIP in four of the last five seasons, with 2007 being the lone year above the average. Looks like a fine #3 man in a rotation. I would expect him to have a decent WHIP and ERA. Maybe not Carpenter-good, but decent enough for our rotation. Bush's career ERA is 4.45 2007 was 5.12 2008 was 4.18 Naturally, I think around 4.5 is a good projection considering he was pretty lucky last year, and pretty unlucky in '07. I think he's a fine 3 or 4. 200 innings of 4.4-4.5 ERA has a lot of value in the MLB. But I don't think it's reasonable to project him for another 4.18 because of the BABIP that was well below his norm and the fact that his K/9 have decreased, BB/9 have increased in the past few years.
  17. brewjihad
    I think we can expect about a 4.5 ERA and durability to go about 200 innings. I wouldn't expect him to keep the really low WHIP and a better than career ERA like he did last year because of this: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4635_P_season_full_7_20080930.png Considering that his k:bb and k/9 rates are going down a little bit, about a 4.5 ERA sounds right.
  18. brewjihad
    You aren't really comparing Mike Cameron to Vlad Guerrero are you? Not the point at all. Your generalization that adding a righty 'free swinger' was bad isn't true, and that's what I was trying to point. You stated that Cameron was a reason that the Brewers scored 50 less runs this year than last year. I disagree, and apparently you aren't willing to consider my point of view. (BTW, Cameron and Vlad were similar in value last year. Cam's .800 OPS and stellar CF is close to Vlad's .860 and below-average RF).
  19. brewjihad
    I hate disagreeing with you but the JS ran a poll on whether exercising Cameron's option was the correct move or not and 61% of the respondents thought it was the wrong move. BCB ran a poll too-- 133 said it was the right move, 27 said it was the wrong move to exercise the option. Who would you trust more? Read the JS blog comments some time to understand the kind of people that are voting at JSonline. Cameron was horrible down the stretch last year. So were Hart, Hardy, even Braun for a while, Kendall... everyone except Fielder, Weeks and Durham were bad in September. The Brewers scored 51 fewer runs in 2008 with Cameron than they scored in 2007 without him. This has nothing to do with Braun dropping .120 points of OPS, Fielder losing .130, and Hart losing .130. This is undoubtedly because we replaced a Jenkins/Mench (.790, .746 OPS) platoon with Mike Cameron (.808). (Please Note: Sarcasm) Part of that reason is that adding another free swinging righthanded bat to a group that included Hall, Hart, Weeks, Braun, etc, made it that much easier for opposing pitchers. Adding Vlad Guerrero to the Brewers would make them even worse next year by this line of reasoning. Do you really think this? If you put any kind of average lefthanded bat in his place, it's going to make it easier for those other guys because the pitcher at least has to think more. No. No it would not. The Brewers would score less runs in this scenario.
  20. brewjihad
    Ray Durham's defense doesn't hurt the team. Rickie Weeks' often does. The balls that Durham gets to, by and large he makes the plays. Same cannot be said about Weeks to anything near the same degree of certainty. There's a natural tendency to think that surehandedness balances out lack of range. You might think that they are equal because they have different strengths and weaknesses, but that's not really the case. Say that for every 100 balls hit to second, Durham gets a glove on 75 of them and converts every single one into an out. Weeks, given the same exact amount of opportunities, gets to 90 of the balls hit and converts 80 of them into outs. Weeks is plenty more valuable of a defender than Durham in that scenario. You can't look at a ball thrown away as hurting the team. It's a misconception.
  21. brewjihad
    Right, but I'm saying that if instread of striking out 100 times, surely if you put the ball in play half of those times you'd be getting more hits. So while you comparing these, you are assuming that if they put the ball in play all of them would be outs, which I dont think would be the case. I think some of them would turn into hits or errors, which would increase the run margin. Right, but every ball put in play eliminates the chance of drawing a walk or getting hit by a pitch. So you have to weigh this as well.
  22. brewjihad
    The Book Blog analyzed this a couple weeks ago. I was under the impression that he's decent defensively. If the Dodgers are stupid enough to move him to sign gritty veteran Jason Varitek to like a 5 year, $100 million deal, let them go right ahead.
  23. brewjihad
    In 464 ABs in 2007, he hit .218/.295/.343. If he's a cheap backup, I'd consider it, but not worth spending a whole lot on given the possibilty that he "improves" our team OBP with another .295.
  24. brewjihad
    Brewers first round picks since 2000: Krynzel Jones Fielder Weeks Rogers Braun Jeffress LaPorta Lawrie I guess my question is how you can say he "missed on first round picks five of nine years". You could say he missed on Krynzel, Jones, and Rogers. Who else are you including in this 5/9 miss rate? Jeffress is one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, LaPorta can't be discredited because he was traded, and Lawrie hasn't even played pro baseball yet. If you count Weeks, I don't see how drafting a league-average 2B can be considered 'missing'. Add in that he found some later http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif rounders like Yo, Hardy, Hart, and Gamel, and then hit on Parra through the draft and follow, and I really fail to see how you can criticize him for early draft picks. Edit: The rest of the NL Central's rate of 1st round picks contributing anything for their team in the majors: Cubs: 1- Prior Cards: 0 Pirates: 2- Burnett, Maholm Reds: 1- Bruce Astros: 1- Burke
  25. brewjihad
    Impact big leaguers: Prince and Brauner Solid big leaguers: Hardy Unproven big leaguers: Gallardo, Parra, Gwynn, Stetter Marginal big leaguers or notable busts: Hart (yes Jon Hart), [Weeks, Jones, Krynzel, Rogers, Jeffress - all rd 1] . . . . and on and on and on and on and on. Up and Coming prospects: Lawrie, LaPorta (gone), Gamel, Salome, Escobar Or you could look at it as if every first round pick to make the majors is somewhat of a success. Look at the track records of teams like the Pirates, Nationals, Astros, and the like who are happy when one of their picks gets to the majors. You'd count against him for picking Gallardo and Parra? Saying that picking Hart and Weeks were reasons he wasn't great and then lumping a AA pitcher like Jeffress in with them is a little excessive, I think. If you expect every first, second, and third round pick to be an all-star, you'll be very disappointed. Edit: Oh yeah, and Hardy isn't an "Impact Big Leaguer"? He was 4th in OPS among all shortstops this year.
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