CheezWizHed

Where did you get the $1.2M number from? This is what I came up with: [pre]Round Pick Name Position Signing Bonus Slot Allocation Savings 1 5 Corey Ray OF $4,125,000 $4,382,200 $257,200 2 46 Lucas Erceg 3B $1,150,000 $1,386,900 $236,900 2.5 75 Mario Feliciano C $800,000 $851,900 $51,900 3 82 Braden Webb RHP $700,000 $764,800 $64,800 4 111 Corbin Burnes RHP $536,400 $536,400 $0 5 141 Zack Brown RHP $401,700 $401,700 $0 6 171 Payton Henry C $550,000 $300,800 ($249,200) 7 201 Daniel Brown LHP $225,500 $225,500 $0 8 231 F. Thomas SS $200,000 $183,200 ($16,800) 9 261 Trey York 2B $25,000 $171,100 $146,100 10 291 Blake Fox LHP $10,000 $159,800 $149,800 Totals: $8,723,600 $9,364,300 $640,700[/pre] By that, we should have only $740,700 ($640,700+$100k base for post 10 draft pick) to sign one, $840,700 to sign two, etc..

I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule. Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.

Same on Noah... Pass. I didn't like him when he wouldn't work out for the Bucks; I didn't like him when he played dirty against the Bucks; I don't like him now.

I don't quite get why "the Bucks don't have a D-league team" is such a problem. They have placed players on other D-league teams before. Maybe they aren't coaching him directly, but certainly the coaches on his team will be working with him on the same goals the Bucks have for him. And as others have said, maybe just playing in practice with the big-boys is what he needs. As for the trade down concept... If we couldn't find a player that was clearly a good pick at #10, why in the world is anyone else going to want to trade UP with us? Boston giving up two picks for one pick, when all three picks are of similar quality is a stretch at best. Flip it around: Would you give up their two picks for our one? In this draft, I wouldn't. And my guess is that the Bucks tried and found no takers. So they picked their favorite player right at #10. Haha. I totally fell asleep while reading this thread last night. I'd delete it but it is to awesome not to. I wonder why I typed an F. Some people pocket dial. Some people pocket post...

I have to say that I was pretty surprised with Makes at #10 like most people. And I was upset at the thought that we won't get any better next year. But I looked at what came after us in the draft. After Poetl was gone, there wasn't really any one left that I liked much. Sure, there will be some surprises. And plenty of guys that will help next year. But this is a league that is won by superstars. And frankly, I think its worth the chance. Some of the video, Makes looks like a short Manute Bol. All arms and legs. But at the same time he handles the ball and moves decently. If he can put on some muscle and progress in is instincts, he could be a very interesting player. People talk a lot about how the league is a small ball league. But the players we are accumulating (except Monroe) are long, lean, quick type players. Specifically, players built for defense. That seems to be this team's MO. I also think that Vaughn will become that 3 point shooter everyone is looking for. He struggled his rookie year, but he started coming on late too.

Ugh! And he was getting hot again. Evidently, he can't handle success. He gets hurt every time he playing well.

I always thought the reads in cf were easier because you were more straight on.

What makes you think he can't stick in CF? Everything I've read says he has the speed.

But Lucroy was in that group, too. It's the nature of draft development. Many will fail, few succeed. But that doesn't mean signing an older player is a great idea.

I've been drooling over these smokers recently, but I can't imagine paying that price for the backyard versions: http://www.meadowcreekbbq.com/

Too often posters want to evaluate prospects with metrics the same way they would MLB players, but that's not realistic and never has been. I'll raise my hand as being guilty of this, but mostly, its all I have to go on.

Or Carlos Leal on the DL. A bit of a long shot now with being out for the season at this age, but played nicely at A-ball last year. Henry is very interesting with similarities to Nottingham (6th round HS pick, size, etc..)

Particularly for the higher strikeout high power types. So much of their potential value is just taken away that its pretty easy to kill a guys career good teaching or not. Only if you expect all metrics to be the same. Personally, I thought Coulter did enough last year (stat wise at least) to be promoted. This year, he fell off the table, but motivation could be a problem. Either way, its a way to find weak-spots in a player's approach by forcing them to adjust to adverse conditions. Its probably better to avoid these spots (especially if they are exaggerated beyond the MLB level), but I don't think its the end of the world either. Honestly, you would think Colorado would want Colorado Springs. Give the players a taste of what they will experience at the MLB level before coming up.

Miller and Guez were released earlier this season, CWH. Doh! I had to edit that post about 3x to fix issues like that... But I knew someone would find something I missed. Either they aren't playing anywhere or I missed the new team on the milb.com page. Our minor league affiliations at A+ and AAA are a big problem. Maybe Lopez would be struggling just as badly if he didn't have to pitch his home games on the moon, but no one can tell me this is optimal. I've always thought (maybe incorrectly, who knows) that extreme hitters' and pitchers' environments were bad for building successful teams, let alone developing talent, because your information is skewed and your strategies are accordingly distorted. I worry that we're rebuilding with one hand tied behind our back. I may be one of the few that disagrees with this (at least partially). I think you have to adjust expectations at A+ and AAA, but I don't think they are necessarily bad places to learn how to play ball. I like Brevard better than Colorado Springs, but I think each has their own challenges. The goal of the minors is teaching people to play baseball. Having people to learn in different environments can be advantageous if you teach the players appropriately: 1) In Colorado Springs you really have to learn to pitch with "bad" breaking pitches. Fastball location (keep it down) and change-ups are probably more desirable. Work on getting more groundballs. 2) In Brevard, your hitters should be focusing more on line drives and less on flyball hitters. It should also help people focus in on centering on the ball. I still would prefer to be out of Colorado Springs, but I don't think Brevard is a bad place. You just have to realize: 1) 800 OPS at Colorado Springs is "nothing", but is a great season at Brevard. 2) Pitchers with a 4-5 ERA in CS is pretty normal. And ERAs of 6 might not be the end of the world either (certain pitchers will do better than others depending on how they rely on their breaking stuff). 3) If you can't make it at Brevard with good numbers, you don't deserve a bump up. But the real make or break lies at AA.

In retrospect, Newcomb or Holmes would have been better takes at 12 for about the same amount (I was hoping for Holmes regardless), but Medeiros was not a huge reach. Not to mention that every team has examples of this. When we got Jack Z, it was a major upgrade from Dean Taylor. Then Bruce Seid was about equal (maybe a bit better). Ray Montgomery interests me, but its only been two drafts so its hard to rate. But certainly its been an upward path from were we used to be.

Todd Rosiak tweet -- For those who asked: C Carlos Leal is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, and 1B Tyrone Perry will open with Arizona Brewers. That really has to torpedo Leal's slim prospect hopes. He will be 25 and starting at A+ ball next year. This wasn't how I wanted to resolve the Houle/Leal fight for playing time at Brevard either...

My thoughts on mid-season promos: I look at mid-season promotions two ways: - Players that are out-classing their competition (there are only a few I could see this year) - Players playing decently, but benefit from the draft class pushing for room from below. (Most of what I bring up here). Wisconsin Burkhalterto A+ wouldn't surprise me. Edit: Forgot about Burkhalter's injury. Depending on how aggressive the Brewers are, any one of Miguel Diaz, Marcos Diplan or Freddy Peralta could go also. I doubt any of them based on age alone, but worthy based on numbers. There are a number of relievers at Wisconsin that are older and may warrant a bump: Nate Griep, Scott Grist, Drake Owenby. Blake Allemand is surely going back even without Neuhaus. I have to imagine we have a SS or 2B coming up from the draft to cover his departure. Denson might get some consideration also. He isn't lighting the world on fire, but the draft might push him up also. Brevard: At A+, I'd guess a few guys might get released. Older BPs that aren't pitching so well (Kaleb Earls, Brad Kuntz). Is it too early for Perrin to bump again? Maybe a Zack Hirsch(25), Gage Smith (25), or Jon Olczak (22) gets bumped to the AA BP. Edit: Sorry missed that Gage was moved up already. I can see getting Coulter to AA for good behavior and time served. Not so much on performance this year, but I thought he did enough last year to be promoted. Johnny Davis (26) already moved up. Less of a chance, but maybe on Dustin Demuth (24) too. Biloxi Cooper is an obvious one that is deserving. Brett Phillips isn't killing it as we would wish, but still worth AAA considerations. Stephen Kohlscheen (27), Tyler Spurlin (25), and Stephen Peterson (28) all could move up to the AAA BP. Colorado Springs More likely we will see some releases more than promotions as there aren't too many spots at the MLB level and this team represents the most older middling prospects; several of whom aren't performing well. - Some combination of Jim Miller (34), Brooks Hall (26), Ariel Pena (27), Sam Freeman (28), Ben Guez (29), Eric Young (31), or Andy Wilkins (27) might be released. - Manny Pina is a shoo-in to make the MLB squad if Lucroy is traded. Free Nate ORF!!! - No SP is worthy of bumping up to the MLB level yet (as an SP), but some SPs/RPs might make the MLB BP at some point: Mitch Lambson (25), Damien Magnifico (25), Austin Ross (27), Drew Gagnon (26), or Brent Suter (26)

Nice outing by Garza

More like turquoise. I'm not a fan. At all. But the shiny blue with charcoal gray on the hats and uniforms is really sharp. Happy Father's Day!

Ercog comes out like a Lou Palmisano with more Power.....He could make a leap. Webb is 2nd coming of Ben Sheets and proving it, he could jump. They would have to play almost exclusively at A-ball (like Ponce last year) to get a large enough sample to really be put in the top 10 consideration. Demolishing Helena as a college player means nothing to me. (As did Mr. Woah Solvdd himself)

I know this comes up every year, but my memory declines worse every year too... The money we save on picks #1-10 can be used to sign anyone else, but only up to some (fairly low) cap amount right? I seem to remember a cap of $100k or something like that. So its not like we can give #11 pick $1M to sign, right?

So going off last year this approach doesn't really make sense. We would have had 3 more extra 1st round talents, but minus two since that is what we lose in future draft picks. So in the end a net gain of one 1st round pick. While that sounds nice a team could probably do the same thing with underslot deals to get just as much overall talent. I guess I should have articulated it a bit better. But I meant that we drafted 3 of these types last year (without attempting the OP suggestion). Thus, I'm assuming other teams did similarly in the 20+ rounds. I wasn't suggesting that we ONLY draft those three... just that we at a minimum had 3 available. Another problem is the fact you don't know where those future picks are. If the Twins did this last year I am sure they were expecting to have a decent team this year and not pick in the Top 10. However they would lose a Top 3 pick if they tried this last year...oops. It's too risky to dangle the loss of what could be a high pick. Teams falter every year and play under expectations. Someone mentioned that it really only made sense if you were fairly certain that you had a good team for the next couple years. So for the Brewers, this might have been very interesting back in 2012 to do this. The MLB team was pretty strong, but the farm was growing pretty weak. If that condition coincides with a very deep draft, it would be tempting...

Last year, we drafted 7 players that could immediately be considered un-signable: 25 (751). Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle HS (CA) WILL NOT SIGN -> PerfectGame Projected as a 1st round pick (5-10 possible) but short on experience. 26 (781). Jon India, SS, American Heritage School (FL) WILL NOT SIGN -> PerfectGame ranked him 127 overall. 29 (871). Donny Everett, RHP, Clarksville HS (TN) WILL NOT SIGN -> PerfectGame Projected as a 1st or 1S pick. 30 (901). Charlie Donovan, SS, Westmont HS (IL) WILL NOT SIGN -> PerfectGame ranked him 405 overall. 32 (961). Sean Chandler, RHP, Papillion-La Vista HS (NE) WILL NOT SIGN -> Unsure 34 (1021). Tristan Beck, RHP, Corona Senior HS (CA) WILL NOT SIGN -> PerfectGame Projected as a 1st or 1S pick. 39 (1171). Nolan Kingham, RHP, Desert Oasis HS (NV) WILL NOT SIGN -> PerfectGame ranked him 121 overall. So, that makes 3 that were rated in the 1st round that we drafted alone. Seems like there should be enough quality players to make it work (assuming money is "enough" to get them to sign). But I would be looking back at history pretty heavily and comparing the rankings vs. succeeding at MLB level post college for these players before I attempted something like this.

You are going to be able to get fringe 1st round options and those flame out 9/10. The only way it would work is if you are signing high first round candidates that others pass on because of sign-ability. The Jared Horns, Carlos Rodons, Donny Everetts... The main question is if you could actually get 10 of them to sign. Risky yes, but very interesting strategy if you can pull it off. I think the worries about the effect on future drafts is backwards. It sounds like you are trying to target 10 possible 1st round players that will never be drafted in the 1st round because of sign-ability concerns. So losing 2 future first round picks and gaining 9 is a good trade (especially if you know they will be late 1st round picks). The risk of any one 1st round pick failing is essentially the same. If you have a 50/50 chance of making the MLB roster as a 1st round pick, gaining 5 (out of 10) in one year is better than gaining 1 (out of 2) over the next two years. The only exception is that you need a draft where you can actually get 9 guys worthy of a 1st round grade that others pass on. AND know they will sign for X million above slot. So you would REALLY need to do your homework. Or prepared to be fired...

Well, that was one signing bonus better (Brown's)! And certainly the search criteria makes it much easier to use. Thanks for that. I have to say that I had some concerns about signing a couple guys in the top 10 this year, but its looking like nothing right now. Only Ray, Feliciano, Webb and Burns remain unsigned (with Burns announcing he was going to Milwaukee to sign). So really only Feliciano might be the only question mark at this point and a small question mark at that. I was concerned about Henry and Thomas (at #6 and #8), but they were a couple of the earliest to sign.