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Everything posted by mkm13
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I agree Yuni is bad defensively, but can you provide some data that has a better year to year correlation than 0.5 (about half of OPS..despite the fact defense should be more consistent)? What does FieldFX have to say? Conisdering you are using 3 significant figures to describe Yuni's terribleness, I have a feeling you think they are much more accurate than they really are.
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Well they have the 5th best record in baseball, so maybe they have more very good pieces than other teams too. Every team is made up a little differently. In general, the elite players are given too much credit and the bad players are given too much blame. I still stand by what I said in that there was not really anything available that would bave been a clear and significant upgrade at either 3rd or SS.
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Some people are just so sure he shouldn't be playing..but nobody can give a better solution of someone that is definitely better that should be playing instead. Again, yes he is bad..but it is not like solid or even slightly below average SS's are readily available. This team is 65-50 and has the 5th best record in baseball. It has a couple negatives...all teams do. Be thankful for what we have and enjoy it. McGehee and Yuni will get significant PT the rest of the year..it is what it is..nobody is saying they are good..they are not...but people act like it is easy to find a replacement who will perform better.
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It is amazing the amount of negativity that surrounds him. Yes, he is a bad player and one of the worst starting SS in baseball. I won't argue that. Every team has below average players. Even the packers super bowl team last year had a few very below average players getting playing time. The brewers have 2 players who are starting that are very below average this year. It is not as easy to simply replace them as some people make it out to be. The person Yuni replaced was equally as bad last year. yes, escobar's defense is better..but even he struggled more defensively last year than people were expecting. Ideally, we wouldn't have Yuni..but I will take Grienke+Yuni over the other options. The truth is there are not many good SS or 3rd baseman available. This is not a video game. Yuni's biggest weakness by many here is his defense...based on the defensive metrics available he is terrible. While I agree his defense is bad for a SS...I am willing to put some trust in the brewers scouts that he might not be quite as bad as it shows and the brewers are using other defensive metrics that are better than a 0.5 correlation factor from year to year (about half that of OPS). On top of the rather poor correlation from year to year, it just seems like they could be skewed slighlty by perception as well. Not everyone on the team is meant to be above average..everyone has different roles..even on the packers team..I could argue they had a couple very bad players getting significant PT. It would be nice if people focused on the positives more than the negatives. We have a very good team overall..you would hardly no it based on the negativity of a couple of the worst players on the team.
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Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster
mkm13 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
For the 3rd time in this thread, Betancourt is bad defensively for a SS. Have never said otherwise. That said, I am pretty confident in saying MLB teams, which spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year...are now using better information to determine how good a player is defensively than the free defensive metrics available that most people like to reference. -
Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster
mkm13 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Did you even read what I wrote? The part you specifically quoted from me starts out with "His defense is not good for a SS". I was just pointing out that some people place too much value over defensive metrics over a smaller sample and place too much value over them overall. But yes, Betancourt is a bad defensive short stop, I agree. You wrote "His defense is not good for a SS, but..." I took that as a suggestion that perhaps Betancourt hasn't been as bad as some have said. Apparently am I am wrong so how does the first comment relate to the the subsequent ones? I was just making a comment about defensive metrics. Not really meant specifically toward you but some people on here. In my opinion the defensive metrics available for free are not as reliable and accurate as some people like to use them as. The fact that the correlation of the defensive metrics is about half of OPS is all I need to know to see they are far from perfect. Everyone knows how much can OPS fluctutes from year to year..and defense should be more consistent from year to year. But yet the correlation from year to year is a fair amount worse. I just find it hard to believe there is not better information out there that MLB teams use, such as fieldFX..that would be more accurate. -
Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster
mkm13 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Did you even read what I wrote? The part you specifically quoted from me starts out with "His defense is not good for a SS". I was just pointing out that some people place too much value over defensive metrics over a smaller sample and place too much value over them overall. But yes, Betancourt is a bad defensive short stop, I agree. -
Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster
mkm13 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I am not saying Betancourt is good, he is not. Just trying to limit the exaggeration. -
Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster
mkm13 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If you remove his terrible May, Betancourt was not bad offensively for a SS before the all star break. Not good...but not bad either. You must be forgetting how bad the average SS hits. -
Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster
mkm13 replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since you removed a week for Casey to try to prove a point..I will remove a month for Betancourt. Outside of the month of May, he has been pretty solid offensively for a SS: .282 BA, .305 OBP, .407 SLG, .712 OPS His defense is not good for a SS, but some people also place too much value on defensive metrics over a smaller sample. I know Betancourt has shown to be specifically bad defensively over a long period of time at SS, but I still do not believe the defensive metrics are as accurate as some people want them to be. -
The thing that most bothers me is some people take the WAR and UZR rankings too literally. They see a number and run with it, before evaulating how accurate it is. They see that Yuni ranks terrible in this and therefore, that makes them the worst player in the league. While I am not saying Yuni is good (I have said multiple times he is not), I do not think the UZR rankings are accurate enough to say he is the worst. There is a small gap between him and where the 30th worst player is (or the bottom 10%). Just read the link below.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/ Way too many assumptions and projections to be accurate to the point some people make them. I am a numbers guy, so I love looking at the data and I think they can be a good tool to use, but some people take it too far. I think the effort they do to determine UZR is great and how they analyze it as great..it makes logical sense. THEY understand it is not as accurate as some here make it. Generally, IMO a players performace year to year should be more consistent on defense than offense. It is like that for most sports. Offense can be streaky. Defense generally is always there. Given that, it is a red flag to me that even in that article it says it takes 2 years of UZR data to equal 1 year of OPS data in terms of year to year correlation. I won't disagree that Yuni has poor range for a SS, but I will disagree that the data available will give you the information to tell you he is the worst player in baseball. That is my biggest problem. There is not much difference between where he and Melky Cabrera are and a guy who is ranked in the bottom 10%. Everyone wants an exact number or ranking, but I do not believe the data available is accurate enough to give definite rankings like many throw out there. For me, since it is so close between Yuni and the other SS options that were available, I will give the brewers organization the benefit of the doubt, since they scout well beyond any of us actually do, and they actually deal with the players first hand. Again, I will say I think Yuni is not a good major league SS...but I think some people take the numbers too far. I think they are a good bench mark, and I love using them as a tool...but I do not think it is accurate to look at Yuni's numbers and automatically label him as the worst player in baseball. Given how close so many players are...and the variables in data, it is not that clear. If you wanted to say Yuni is in the bottom 10% of full time position players in baseball, fine..I would say you are probably correct. I do have a problem with people labeling him the worst and wanting him to be replaced...when there is really no clear better options available.
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Ennder, I am not just worried about the results. I do understand Yuni is a bad player. My biggest problem with people is the exaggeration by some and them not being able to understand that there was not a better replacement. And yes, I have seen the names floated around in this thread. IMO at best, they are basically the same...bad players.
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Right now out of qualified players this year, Yuni is 14th out of shortstops in the majors in OPS. If he hits for his career average (0.688 OPS), he would be 12th out of all the shortstops. His bat is not good, and his low OBP is an issue, but his poor offense is exaggerated for a SS, just like most other things regarding him on this site. Again, he is not good, but there is no need to exaggerate.
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Yes, he is one of the worst starting shortstops in baseball. Most will not deny it. I do not. I just have a problem (and I think a lot of people do to) with the people that seem to think there is an easy upgrade. There is not. Last year I knew that Escobar was one of the worst starting shortstops in baseball. I also understood it would not be easy to find someone better. I was content knowing every team has below average players and a few bad ones. You would think by how people are reacting Yuni was replacing an all star.
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I am not going to argue with the word "sucks" as I agree he is not a good player. Have never said otherwise. What I am arguing is the ability to find a better option after he was brought in as part of the Grienke deal. All of the names that I have seen floated around this thread are not upgrades (or if they are, it is by a very small amount and very debatable) overall.
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Where are all these short stops that would post what he did offensively and be an upgrade overall? Again, people overvalue the depth of quality short stops. The line so far is a small sample. I would expect them to come up slightly closer to his career averages (an OPS in the upper .600's). This year, with his OPS of just 0.605, he STILL ranks 16th in all of the majors..basically tied for 15th with Jeter. Also, there is only 11 SS's currently with an OPS of 0.700 or greater. There are not many good hitting short stops. He is not a good player. But he is not as bad as people make him out to be.
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You don't need to tell me how the stats work. I understand it. In the example I gave, player 1 would have had higher slugging because of the singles instead of walks. I simply stated that some people overvalue a walk. In this very thread you said that Fielder was way more valuable, and it was not even close. I have no clue how someone can come to that conclusion unless they overvalue walks. Because their OPS and wOBA are very close to the same over their career. I am not saying it is not very important, just that some people seem to overvalue it...or they are overstating things to try to prove a point?
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I feel like some people would view these 2 lines being equally good: Player 1 .320 BA, .360 OBP Player 2 .250 BA, .360 OBP The 2 players have the same amount of power, just that the higher BA comes from strictly singles. I think player 1 is a quite a bit better, even if the 0.070 higher batting average was all from extra singles. A single with a guy on 2nd and 3rd is often times worth 2 runs. A walk with a guy on 2nd and 3rd is just going to get you the bases loaded, hoping the next guy can hit them in. I think being able to hit for a higher average is undervalued by some on this board. I understand that often times a walk is no different than a single, but I think in general a guy with a high average and not as much patience is undervalued by some people here. I am not saying being patient and drawing walks is not very important...it is very important...just that in my opinion some people dismiss BA completely and just look at OBP.
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There are 2 reasons: 1. Because his lack of range which is described by many on here as being "horrible" is exaggerated. It is not good, but it is not nearly as extreme as some on here suggest. For example, the comments of him not being able to get to a ball unless it is hit right at him does not represent reality. 2. The talent level at short stop is not as deep as some make it out to be. It appears on here many people think it is easy to find an average SS. It is the most difficult position on the field and not many can do it very well. Every team has below average players on it. He happens to be on the lower end of that.
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I was responding to you saying "offense" and "not even close". I won't argue that Fielder might be slightly better at HITTING. You used the word offense which to me also includes base running. Braun is not a great base runner, but he is better than Fielder, who is well below average. In terms of hitting it is still close. I could believe a good argument on either side..but none that say it is not even close. I never said not making outs is not important, it is. I think pitchers try to pitch around Fielder more than they do Braun because Fielder follows Braun. So Braun might see some better pitches over the course of a year where Fielder might naturally draw more walks because of the situation he is in. I am not saying Braun is as patient as Fielder, because he is not and it is not even close, just pointing out the gap is probably a little wider than it would be otherwise in terms of walks. When the stats are as close as they are overall in terms of OPS, and they are not put in the same situation, I do not think it is as clear and one sided as you make it out to be.
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Come on, really? Why exaggerate? How can it not be close? If you are talking offense you have to also include base running, which Braun has a leg up on Fielder. I think in terms of overall offense, they are pretty close to the same. I would personally give the small edge to Braun.
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No, you have been exaggerating how bad he is. I do not see anyone here overestimating how bad the worst regular SS in baseball is. I don't think there is a huge difference, and I don't think others do either..which is why people have been responding to your exaggerations. You have been saying he can't get to anything not hit right at him, etc. It is you that is exaggerating. I agree, the worst defensive SS in baseball might miss 1 or 2 balls a week that an average major league SS might get. That is far from how bad you have been painting Yuni. You have been painting him of being basically incapable of doing anything other than an extremely routine play, which is not true. Nobody is saying Betancourt is good, he is not. People are just responding to how extreme people are abusing his ability.
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I don't see anyone that is defending him calling his defense good (or if there is, it is a very small amount). The people that are defending him know he is not good defensively, but are responding to the people who are exaggerating how bad he is and being unreasonable about it. The level at which people were getting on Hardy does not even come close to what people are saying about Betancourt.

