Projections are fine and dandy, but it does not mean a thing until you play. A 3.83 era over 12 years makes me like his chances. I doubt he will be worse than last year's 4.40 era. Gasser, for example, has a 3.90 era in 31 starts at AAA. I just don't trust that he will be a great number 4 pitcher, he just has not proven that yet. I hope he does, but until so, I would rather have a proven yet older arm for insurance.