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TheCrew

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Everything posted by TheCrew

  1. TheCrew
    Your original response and subsequent responses also talked about wins quite a bit - which are pretty meaningless when it comes to pitchers and had nothing to do with my original post. Not to be an ass, but again - if he regresses slightly, playing in the NL should offset that and he should be able to put up similar numbers as to what he did last year (assuming he stays healthy of course). If he can put those numbers up or anything even remotely close, that is an absolute huge upgrade for the #4 spot in the rotation. A #4 pitcher with an era in the high 3's/low 4's? Yes, please. I also never said the move to the NL is something that should factor into offering him a contract - was just pointing it out that the move to the NL should help his numbers slightly and should offset any regression due to age (unless he completely hits a wall of course) - It should give us an idea of what to expect from him in 2011, simple as that....... I think your reading far too much into it. What should factor into offering him a contract - and ultimately the only thing - is his performance over the last few seasons and nothing else.
  2. TheCrew
    Just out of curiosity, when does assumed regression due to age become a valid argument in your opinion? 37? 39? 41? Just regression or the level of regression that some are implying that Pavano is going to have in 2011? I can't say I blame anyone, but I think too many posters on here are scared off of FA pitchers that are in their 30's because of the bad taste that Soup left in all of our mouths. If a guy is coming off a fantastic season at 41 - why should we assume he can't perform at a high level again at age 42? Perfect example is hoffman - many thought he was done in 2009 and many Brewer fans didn't like the signing and he went out and shocked even those that liked the signing. Then he shocked us again this past season - I think we all thought he'd regress, but nobody thought he'd completely fall of a cliff. Every player is different and they all hit a wall with performance at a different age. Contract length for older players is an entirely different beast and I don't think Pavano is worth the risk of a 3 year deal at all - He's been good over the past 2 seasons, but not good enough to warrant taking that risk. Pavano should be solid this year and even he does regress slightly, if he can put up a 4.00-4.25 ERA and eat up close to 200 innings it would be huge for this team.
  3. TheCrew
    94.7 pre TJ (fairly small sample size) 93.7 post TJ (full season) I think your splitting hairs on that one, especially if davemakovec is correct in saying that he was hitting 97 this season.
  4. TheCrew
    Never said it would improve his chances to win games - I said it should allow him to put up similar numbers and if the Brewers #4 pitcher can put up similar numbers to what Pavano did last season, it would be a huge improvement and would lead to more wins.
  5. TheCrew
    Wins are the least important stat when it comes to a pitcher - see Loopers 14 wins 2 seasons ago. Whether he is in the AL or NL, a pitcher can't control run support - but when in the NL, he'll face a weaker lineup than in the AL and pitchers, in theory, will put up slightly better numbers when in the NL.
  6. TheCrew
    Don't like the 3 year contract at all - but the "he will regress because he is 35" argument is pretty weak if you ask me.
  7. TheCrew
    My bad - I was just going off fangraphs where the highest AVG they have on there is 89.4 from 2005 (8 Innings pitched)
  8. TheCrew
    Marcum could never run his fastball up over 90........... and he's been just fine.
  9. TheCrew
    How is Liriano not back to pre-TJ status? Because he didn't match the 2.16 ERA he logged in his 2nd season when he pitched only121 innings? He still put up a 3.62 ERA (even with an unlucky .340 on BABIP) during a full season rather than 2/3rds of one. Carpenter, Hudson, Liriano, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner......... Just a few guys off the top of my head that have had TJ surgery and have come back just as good or better. It's a pretty common surgery now and with Marcum pitching as well as he did last season, it's pretty evident he is recovered and it should not be a major concern.
  10. TheCrew
    2 year deal for $22 million or less with a mutual option on the 3rd year and I'd be extremely happy - I think some people need to let the Suppan thing go, Pavano is a much better pitcher than Suppan ever was. Even if he regresses a bit, the move the NL should help his numbers.
  11. TheCrew
    His avg/obp dip about 30 points each against lefties compared to righties and his power numbers take a dip as well, but it's quite a stretch to say he absolutely can't hit lefties.
  12. TheCrew
    He's a career .296 hitter and has been over .300 5 of the last 6 seasons - OPS was over .800 those season as well - not sure how you seem him at .275. Steals 40-60 bags a year, 15+ HR's, good plate discipline and plays great defense - what's not to like? I was really hoping the Brewers would make a run at him to play CF but with Werth's deal there is obviously no chance at that happening.
  13. TheCrew
    I'd be ok if it was a 2 year deal with an option on the 3rd year with a relatively cheap buyout - He proved last year that he can still be effective and dominant in stretches, I think the 'only pitches well in contract years' thing is overblown a bit. Any commitment over 2 years and I'd be extremely disappointed.
  14. TheCrew
    Is his value likely to go up anymore though? Everyone knows he can hit - the only way it could go up is if he sticks at 2b and he rakes this next season. Even if he hits well this next season, but has to move to a different position - I'd say his value takes a hit.
  15. TheCrew
    IMO his value is at his peak because of 2b - I don't think he'll stick there and he'll end up as a corner OF'er and his bat is much easier to replace at that point and that is with the assumption that he continues to progress as a hitter.
  16. TheCrew
    Trade Cain+ for Garza Sign Crawford Rotation: Yo Marcum Wolf Garza Narv Lineup: Crawford Weeks Braun Prince Hart McGehee Lucroy Escobar
  17. TheCrew
    Melvin can't win with some people. He was bashed for not moving Hardy when his value was at his peak - same for Gamel, Hart and others. He was also bashed for not acquiring quality starting pitching as well. Then he goes and trades a prospect whose value is at it's peak for a legit #1 pitcher who has put up very respectable numbers in baseballs toughest division - and he still gets bashed by some. I think some people need to look at the numbers of some of the other top pitchers in the AL east - Marcum doesn't have the name recognition of a Sabathia or Beckett, but his numbers are comparable.
  18. TheCrew
    Per MLBTR - Brewers are dangling Cain in an effort to add a 2nd starter
  19. TheCrew
    MLBTR is saying it is Lawrie straight up for Marcum
  20. TheCrew
    I really don't get what any of this has to do with Weeks - nobody even knows if Lawrie is going to stick at 2b and even if he does, it's highly unlikely that he will be MLB ready next season (when Weeks would leave as a FA).
  21. TheCrew
    Marcum will be an ace in the NL - he put up a 3.64 ERA in the AL East last season (3.39 in 2008). He doesn't need to throw 95+ MPH to be an ace. Those are ELITE numbers playing in that division and it wouldn't surprise me in the least bit to see him outproduce Yo this season. If Lawrie doesn't stick at 2b, his bat won't be missed nearly as much.
  22. TheCrew
    Is seeking a 1 year deal - turned down a 2 year/$20 million deal - seems like he wants to prove he can still pitch at a high level next season and then cash in on one more big deal. Guy has been great in the NL - haven't heard anything at all on Melvin showing interest though, anyone else hearing anything?
  23. TheCrew
    If that is true, it just makes me wonder if there is something going on with ownership/organization/management/etc. that keeps players from wanting to come here - Melvin revealed that Halladay blocked a trade to come here and many other pitchers have listed Milwaukee as a no-trade team............. Just makes me wonder.
  24. TheCrew
    Sure is - but if Weeks leaves, he leaves. The point is that trading a prospect who many believe isn't expected to stick at 2b has no bearing on whether or not Weeks stays. If anything, making the team more competitive (which Greinke would do) might give him more incentive to stay.
  25. TheCrew
    Aren't there a number of questions on whether Lawrie will even stick at 2b? If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not Weeks is extended. If a package centered around Lawrie can land Greinke, I say go for it. Greinke - Yo - Wolf as the top 3 would be pretty darn good. Narv/Parra/Cappy could be the #5 and a FA signing could be the #4 - I'd like Pavano personally, but I wouldn't mind if they brought Bush back either..... or they could take a risk on a guy like Webb and if he bounces back, they'd easily have the best rotation in the league.
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