Duke has not exactly been dominant in the past few years as they've been embracing the OAD model. Since their 2011 ACCT victory, here's a list of what they've won (ACC regular season, ACCT, NCAA regional): I actually think Wisconsin is a bad match-up for UNC if it comes to that, not the other way around. As has been a theme of recent years, UNC has been injury prone. Marcus Paige was playing at probably 50-75% for the first three-quarters of the season, and two of their Freshman have missed (or been limited in) a major chunk of the conference season, so their development hasn't been as strong as hoped. If either Justin Jackson or Joel Berry can hit a couple 3's they can be very good (see: win vs. Virginia), but if not it will be hard for them to beat a Wisconsin team that doesn't turn the ball over very often. They do sometimes turn to ball over way too much, but I don't think that's an issue of handling the ball poorly so much as it is a team philosophy in making a risky (60%) pass for a 95% field-goal attempt. Kentucky can be beat, and given even odds I'd bet they will get beat (of course, 45% odds to win the tourney is really high). Notre Dame could be an issue in the Elite 8 if they draw fouls (and convert) like they did vs. UNC and Duke in the ACCT (I think they hit 28/32 vs. UNC). Otherwise, their bracket is a cakewalk, but both Wisconsin and Arizona probably would have a 20-25% chance of winning in the final four should they meet.