Funketown
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Everything posted by Funketown
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Wisconsin is really good, that was probably UNC's best 3-shooting performance of the year. I'd consider myself a UNC fan first and then a Wisconsin fan, but I found myself pretty much indifferent between which team won; there's just no way UNC could have kept winning. Wisconsin can beat Arizona, and they can beat Kentucky, and they can beat dook (but hopefully dook loses).
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I think Wisconsin is a really, really bad match-up for UNC given their poor jump-shooting. They get a very large proportion of their offense on high-risk, high-reward passes (they rank 1st in assists, 329th in turnovers, non pace-adjusted so take it with a grain of salt) and also use Kennedy Meeks for long outlet passes after defensive rebounds. Meeks is doubtful for the game, and UNC's backup center Joel James is much-improved from last year, but foul-prone. UNC may need Justin Jackson to provide a few threes in addition to Marcus Paige in order to win the game. Their team 3P% is bad, but they've been much better as of late as their three freshman have finally gotten healthy (Berry & Pinson) or found their stroke (Jackson). Marcus Paige has also only been healthy-ish since the most recent Duke game, and since that game he's 22/50 from beyond the arc and averaging 17.8 PPG and 5.1 APG.
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Duke has not exactly been dominant in the past few years as they've been embracing the OAD model. Since their 2011 ACCT victory, here's a list of what they've won (ACC regular season, ACCT, NCAA regional): I actually think Wisconsin is a bad match-up for UNC if it comes to that, not the other way around. As has been a theme of recent years, UNC has been injury prone. Marcus Paige was playing at probably 50-75% for the first three-quarters of the season, and two of their Freshman have missed (or been limited in) a major chunk of the conference season, so their development hasn't been as strong as hoped. If either Justin Jackson or Joel Berry can hit a couple 3's they can be very good (see: win vs. Virginia), but if not it will be hard for them to beat a Wisconsin team that doesn't turn the ball over very often. They do sometimes turn to ball over way too much, but I don't think that's an issue of handling the ball poorly so much as it is a team philosophy in making a risky (60%) pass for a 95% field-goal attempt. Kentucky can be beat, and given even odds I'd bet they will get beat (of course, 45% odds to win the tourney is really high). Notre Dame could be an issue in the Elite 8 if they draw fouls (and convert) like they did vs. UNC and Duke in the ACCT (I think they hit 28/32 vs. UNC). Otherwise, their bracket is a cakewalk, but both Wisconsin and Arizona probably would have a 20-25% chance of winning in the final four should they meet.
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I suspect Duke will fall off the top line, and Virginia will remain on the top line. You can make a solid argument for any three of {Virginia, Wisconsin, Villanova, Arizona} as the last #1 seed. It's difficult to know what they'll get out of Justin Anderson in a week; he looked pretty much useless in the ACCT, it wouldn't surprise me if they give him the first game off and use him sparingly (if at all) in the second in hopes of having him healthy for the Sweet 16. I hadn't seen a team give Okafor that much room all season, and in retrospect I wonder why that hasn't been done more often (I think I counted 3-5 open looks beyond the arc in the entire game for Duke). They also employed a bit of hack-a-shaq late in the game, not at all a bad idea for a guy who shoots ~67% from the floor but barely 50% from the line. He also looked indifferent defensively at times (along with Winslow).
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UVA may have the #1 locked up today with a win. It's worth remembering that they've been without Justin Anderson, who is their best or second best player, for the past ten games. If I were the committee I'd just put Kansas (or the 8th team) in UK's bracket.
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Well, I haven't attended an MLB game since moving to Carolina. The Durham Bulls Athletic Park is a great place to catch a minor-league game though. Ten bucks for a great seat and a night of watching the likes of Bill Hall and Russell Branyan (and the much-loved Chris Dickerson), with a better beer selection than I remember at any MLB games (that's probably changed in five years).
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Double posts are weak. Also, let me briefly rant about my distaste for the 'play-in' among the 16-seeds. If you win your conference, you should get to go to the tourney (Dayton does not count). Let the mediocre bubble teams have play-in games if need be.
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That Horizon league tournament makes a lot of sense; I really only care about watching the finals as a viewer with no vested cheering interest in the conference, and that would usually lead to a raucous environment. I think most NCAA basketball fans can list their fondest memories of the tournament as coming from the likes of Vermont (Taylor Coppenrath!), Lehigh (CJ McCollum), FGCU, Mercer, Norfolk State, etc. Davidson could be a really scary team this year (they have tons of great outside shooters), but they aren't exactly flying under the radar anymore. I'll be favoring Wofford and Iona tonight as those are good teams which could give us some fun in a week (top-100 by kenpom).
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I think at this point both Duke and UVA get one seeds as long as they don't drop their first-round games in the ACCT. I doubt UVA can lose their one seed regardless of what happens on Wednesday. Virginia may be without Justin Anderson for a while due to an appendectomy, and if that's the case then it seems there about a half-dozen teams after Kentucky which are similarly strong. The conference tourneys are a lot of fun, but I have two complaints. First, smaller conference tourneys ought to be held on campus, I'm sure there's a financial reason why these conferences sometimes choose to host the tourneys at one venue, but it's a lot more fun to watch these games in a team's home gym. Second, I wish there was some way to keep the intrigue of these tournaments while giving a larger advantage to the regular-season conference winner. Murray State won their conference by SIX games, and lost by a point in a back-and-forth final, which makes the regular season seem like a pretty pointless exercise in these third-tier conferences. They shouldn't get an at-large bid (BPI around 70, 1-2 against top-100 teams with two blowout losses), but they deserve to be there more than any other team in that conference.
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I just started playing again about six months ago (I played a lot until I was 15, then played maybe fifteen rounds in ten years). I upgraded my ~25 year old Ping Zing knockoffs to a pretty much unused set of Mizuno MX-300's I found on ebay for $180 and I love them, great combination of workability with some forgiveness. I've put together a pretty solid bargain-bin set as those irons came 4 - GW with a (nearly unused) Mizuno MP-10 sand wedge, and I picked up a Tour Edge Exotics CB4 3-wood for about $20 bucks and I'm still gaming my old Rossie II putter. I drove the hour down to Dormie Club yesterday. That's a great track by Coore & Crenshaw if you're ever in the Southern Pines/Pinehurst area, and you can play it from about November to early March for $70 (it's $200 in the peak-season). Huge fairways with lots of undulation introduce a lot of interesting playing angles and there are a few really fun ~300 yard par fours which are drive-able but punishing around the green. Like Pinehurst #2, there is no Bermuda rough, and the waste areas are actually really fun to play out of as they introduce tough but playable lies that offer different recovery options just about every time.
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I think it comes down to whether the selection committee wants to give the ACC two #1 seeds. For my money, I view the resumes of Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Villanova on a similar level. I suspect that if two of those go undefeated from here on out (and the others don't), they'll get the final two one seeds. It seems like the country is top-heavy this season. Virginia got a #1 seed with 6 losses last season, Arizona got a #1 with 4 losses. Off the top of my head it seems like 4 losses in a major conference with a decent non-conference schedule is good enough for a 1-seed, but that won't do it this season.
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So...Rick Barnes' Texas squad has two first rounders (one a probable lottery pick), and they look like they'll be in the NIT. Lunardi moves Villanova up to a 1 seed with their win and Gonzaga's loss. I don't think Duke will be a 1-seed when all is said and done unless they win out; Virginia can probably lose once more (maybe twice?) and maintain their 1 seed. Time to think about gearing up for Championship Week.
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The Big East is undoubtedly one of the better conferences in the country right now. Sagarin has the Big East 2nd behind only the Big 12 in his conference ratings. Depending on how much you value strength at the top vs. depth, there's really no way you can argue it's worse than the 4th strongest conference this year. Right now bracketmatrix has 60% of the conference as 9-seeds or better. I don't know that they're that strong at the top, but it's a very deep conference.
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I'm not sure why everybody is acting like Kentucky is a guarantee to make the final four. They're really, really good, but they really haven't faced an elite opponent yet. It's certainly in anyone's interest to be as far away from Kentucky as possible int he bracket and hope some 5-seed goes 8/13 from beyond the arc and hits free throws.
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I watched the PGA Tour App while I worked yesterday which was stationed at #10 at Riviera. It's really amusing watching pros struggle with a clever little hole like that; given the drought in California everything seems to be rolling ridiculously fast. The pin placement was so tight yesterday between the two bunkers that most were just driving for the green as laying up would leave a really tricky wedge shot. I think I maybe saw one player hold the green on the drive.
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BABIP, PECOTA, VORP, and Eckstein have taken on some new partners: http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/the-greatest-fake-law-firm-ever-has-even-more-new-partn-1686550610/+bubbaprog I thought the Johnny-Karate episode would be terrible, but I ended up thinking they did a great job. I genuinely thought the Paunch Burger commercial was a Hardee's commercial for the first ten seconds or so.
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Gotta love auto-renew. I was pretty much indifferent between renewing and canceling last year. So when MLB added the minor annoyance of canceling I decided I'd keep the package. I always think about canceling, but then I typically realize that $110 (I keep my initial price) is pretty reasonable for the amount I use it.
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Pre-Spring Training MLB Season Predictions
Funketown replied to vegasbrewcrew1993's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
'Tis the season for unbridled, irrational optimism. Brewers 162 - 0 NLDS 3-0 NLCS 4-0 WS 4-0 St. Louis goes 0-162. -
Who also happened to go 26-14 against K after K's arrival in Durham. This is an interesting read on Dean Smith: http://thestacks.deadspin.com/a-credible-saint-how-dean-smith-became-north-carolinas-1684725181/+Tom_Ley
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I saw some of his front 9 yesterday...hitting 2/8 fairways to start will make it pretty tough.
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It would be neat to see the Cubs hold a service between two games of a (newly scheduled) Cubs-Cardinals double header at Wrigley. I really with MLB brought back scheduled double headers, maybe just one home scheduled double header for each team in a year. Sell it as an excuse to take a day off, play at 12:00 and 3:30; not sure how many fans there are like me but I'd happily pay 2.5x the price of a regular ticket to avoid having to get to the stadium twice. Odd statement from the family attorney:
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Michigan State vs. Maryland is ugly. UVA and Davidson in a barnburner. Davidson might be a team to look out for; they're in the high 30's in ESPN's BPI but it's a bit harder to fly under the radar in the A10.
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Odds are Kentucky will drop a stupid one at some point, but it's not that unlikely that they get through the regular season at some point. Florida (#14 kenpom), South Carolina, Georgia, and Arkansas (30's) could knock off Kentucky if they shoot lights-out (is that possible vs. UK's defense?). Just looked at Wisconsin's schedule and it's pretty bare until mid-February. They shouldn't lose more than 2-3 games in conference play.
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That's probably the most reasonable scenario in the next decade. It looks like they have a stadium which could reasonably host a few games: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estadio_Latinoamericano
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Obligatory: Let's keep this to baseball. Does anybody here follow the better Cuban ballplayers? I remember finding Jose Abreu's video game numbers a couple of years before he came over the pond and hoping the Brewers would make a run as he became a personal favorite. Given that most of what the Brewers need at this point are 'spare parts' I'm wondering if perhaps there are some new affordable options out there to take a bet on. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/sports/baseball/for-baseball-cuba-is-front-and-center.html?_r=0