Warning Track Power

Herrera for K-Rod?! Admittedly I don't know much about Rosario but DM should be executive of the year simply for finding someone who would even trade for Herrera given his 2 game performance for the Crew.

I think you see more of the powder blue because you cannot find the gray version. I've been dying for the gray to come back and I can't find them anywhere.

While I don't mind the new gold jersey, I think the Brewers FO should focus more on what the fans in the stands are telling them by their choice of Brewer apparel. In my opinion, the Brewers would be smarter to continue to capitalize on the ball and glove logo, and have an alternate retro gray away jersey similar to below than another version of the current set: http://www.americanmemorabilia.com/pics/42967_01_lg.jpg

Didn't see this posted anywhere else but the Cerveceros gold uniforms won't be the only gold jerseys the Brewers wear. Looks like we have a new alternate jersey.

I know that Schierholtz is hurt right now but with Beltran in RF, Cody Ross in CF and Brandon Belt and Aubrey Huff at 1B/LF, I think they are more than set for the time being. Rowand had his time and was pretty average. Once Schierholtz comes back, Rowand is the 5th OF and that is an awful lot of money to pay a 5th OF, even if the contract is guaranteed.

Given a scenario that includes Prince leaving and Reyes shopping for a deal in the 6 year/$90MM range, I think the Brewers would at least explore the possibility of signing Reyes. My approval of a deal such as this with Reyes would be completely dependent on the Brewers re-signing Greinke first. I don't think we could afford Marcum and Reyes. I'm not sure how I would feel about a Reyes deal without first locking up Greinke. The lineup sure would look amazing though... Reyes-Nyjer Gomez-Braun-Weeks-Hart-Gamel-Taylor McGehee-Lucroy

Couple thoughts on this: #1. I really hope Prince is sending a message that a deal is imminent because I love him as a player. #2. I really hope Prince wasn't sending a message to the Brewers FO. If the 5year/$100MM offer for Prince was rejected last year, he doesn't understand the economics of baseball as that offer is HUGE for a market the Brewers size. I will have lost some respect for him if that is what that was about because it isn't like the Brewers were lowballing him. They are extending out to as much as they can go without crippling the franchise. #3. If he isn't sending a message and a deal isn't imminent, I have to wonder the motivations. I can't imagine Prince being oblivious to the fans begging and pleading for him to stay and his possible FA casting a bit of a dark cloud on the horizon of this magical season. Using that medium to send a message right now about winning a bet with the players, messing with people or sending a message to the Cubs, as others have speculated, is in poor taste. Especially if it is being done to mess with people. Fans take this stuff seriously (too seriously sometimes) and to pull a stunt like this when the Brewers are so close to winning a division for the first time since 1982, would make Prince seem like a bad teammate and extraordinarily self-important. I don't think Prince is this way, but you never know.

You guys make this sound that Prince is just another guy and that his production level is merely a function of his place in the lineup. I understand that you believe RBI is a team function. I understand your prerogative. However, neither of you, Baldkin or Rawbecht, have given me a reason to believe that Gamel/Gindl could replace Fielder/Hart's production. Is this merely your perspective and opinion? I'm find it hard to believe that the Brewers can replace an MVP candidate and 2x All-Star's production with a couple of guys in Triple AAA that aren't even a blip on the top 100 prospects in baseball list.

Not saying I agree with putting 3 rookies in the lineup but using HR/RBI to strengthen your argument doesn't really work. RBI are affected by whether guys are on base in front of you, how many times that occurs, etc. If Gamel were hitting 4th this entire year (and assuming Prince wasn't there to drive in all those runs), I bet he would've finished around 100. Most cleanup guys should finish with at least 85 RBI just because of the number of opportunities. I'm not saying Gamel will hit clean-up next year or that I want him to but I just think RBI is a bad argument to use. And I also think you are ignoring any improvements that Gamel/Gindl would contribute to on defense. Yes I am absolutely excluding defense because I can't speak to it because I have never seen Gamel/Gindl v. Fielder/Hart. I can't make that comparison fairly. As for HR and RBI, to me HR is a demonstration of production and your ability to put a run on the board. RBI, while dependent on people being on base, also demonstrates your ability to produce, whether it be via a hit or out, in getting those runners in. Please use a different stat to prove me wrong that Gamel/Gindl can even approach half of Fielder/Hart's production? I would love for you to prove me wrong because I think that my current viewpoint makes the Brewers worse and I am all for any stat that makes the Brewers look better minus Fielder/Hart.

This I definitely agree with. Despite what I have said in other threads, I would be more than happy to play Gamel, Green and Gindl on Opening Day 2012 if that means Prince is re-signed. I'd trade Wolf, Hart and McGehee in a heartbeat if we could get a MLB-ready prospect SS. Our high priced offensive talent would include mega deals for Braun and Fielder, a big deal for Weeks and semi-costly CF in Nyjer Gomez. However, you have league minimum players in RF, 3B and SS, as well as a pre-arby Lucroy. You have your leadoff hitter in Nyjer and your 3-4-5 locked in. Sprinkle the rookies around the rest of the lineup (New SS #2, Gamel at #6, Lucroy #7, Gindl #8) and I would be happy. It makes some sense to me that the Brewers are exploring this idea: 2012: The pitching staff would have Narveson becoming the #4, Estrada being the #5 and Peralta having one more year in Triple AAA. 2013: Re-sign Greinke, let Marcum walk after 2012 for the draft picks. Narveson moves to #3, Peralta becomes #4 and Estrada stays #5, with Thornburg, Jungmann and Bradley in the mix for the end of 2013, beginning of 2014. Rotation gets a little thin, but you still have the #1-2 punch in Greinke-Gallardo.

Greg: While I buy into advanced metrics such as WAR, I am also very old school and hold a belief that Fielder, Hart and McGehee's role on the team extends greater than their production versus their replacement's production. I think that given a scenario where Gamel, Gindl and Green would be opening day 2012 starters on the Brewers, you would see Braun, Rickie, Lucroy and Nyjer all press and not be as relaxed in their roles on the team as they all would be looked at to be consistent all season to overcome the type of ups and downs that are inherent to almost all rookies* (save the true great rookie seasons like Pujols in 2001 or Braun in 2007). I don't believe Gamel, Gindl and Green would be terrible, I just think the Brewers and teams in general are better to bring along rookies 1 or 2 at the most, at a team. I especially think this would be better given that I don't believe anyone outside of the Brewers organization believes any of the three to be can't miss prospects. Look I wouldn't have a problem with these guys all getting a shot in 2012. I believe Gamel will be a solid if unspectacular option for us at 1B and I think Gindl and Green could be decent upon their arrival. However, given the scenario of all three being up at once. Let's say Green performs on par with McGehee and we receive on par production from our SS than YuBet has given us. Can a combination of Gamel and Gindl give us anything close to what Prince and Hart have to overcome those shortfalls at 3B and SS? Per FanGraphs, Prince is on pace for 35 HR, 121 RBI, Corey is on pace for 23 HR and 60 RBI. That is 58 HR and 181 RBI that Gamel and Gindl will have to make up. I think at best, we could realistically expect Gamel and Gindl to give us about half the HRs and 2/3 of the RBI that Prince and Hart would in 2012. Additionally, without Prince and Hart and McGehee in the lineup I strongly believe that Braun and Weeks production would dip. Am I against the idea of having all three by 2013? Absolutely not. I just am not ready to have all three starting at the same time when budget is there to keep Corey, especially if Prince leaves, and the team would still have a dynamic top of the rotation in Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum and a solid back end in Wolf and Narveson.

In my opinion sticking too many rookies in the lineup next season is a recipe to see Greinke and possibly Marcum walk away with Wolf after 2012 because I don't think the Brewers are competitive in 2012 in that scenario. If Prince walks, Gamel immediately becomes the 1B and Hart staying is a must. I like Gindl too but I think the best thing the Brewers did when Rickie, JJ, Prince, Braun and Hart started coming was to break them in individually and not all at once. JJ started 2005 as the SS, Rickie got some ABs about midway through 2005, Hart and Prince came in 2006, Braun in 2007. This team without Prince may not be a playoff front runner but it is a playoff contender. Subtract Prince AND Hart and replace them with Gamel and Gindl and I think we are destined to be a low 80s win team. Subtract Prince, Hart and McGehee and replace them with Gamel, Gindl and Green and my expectations are under .500. 3 rookies, while I believe they all will be decent, is not an effective strategy to compete and maximize their contributions. A gradual break-in plan where Gamel begins 2012 as the 1B and Gindl and Green being midseason callups next season is a much more effective strategy in ensuring long term success for the Brewers and Gamel, Gindl and Green.

Couple points from a couple different posts: "Brewers would be better off letting Taylor Green" "I'd rather allocate that money elsewhere and give Taylor Green a shot at 3B" Ok, I think Green could be good too but let's look at next year's lineup minus Prince if Green is inserted. Hart is #1, Nyjer/Gomez is #2, Braun is #3, Rickie is #5, McGehee/Gamel is #6, Green/Lucroy is #7/#8...Barring a deal for Tulo or Hanley or a megadeal for Reyes for SS, all unlikely, if we have Green at 3B, we will also have an enormous gap in the middle of the lineup. Who is your cleanup hitter? Rickie seems pretty good at #5, Hart can't hit anywhere other than #1 or #2 apparently. McGehee and Lucroy aren't good options and we sure aren't going to stick a rookie in Green or Gamel at #4. I'm struggling with next year's lineup short of adding an impact middle of the lineup bat. "We'll likely need to pay for a SS, and we're already gonna be paying Braun, Hart, and Weeks quite a bit of money." Agreed. Who is that SS though? There isn't a SS on the market this year that I would pay much for. If you want an immediate impact SS like Hanley, "payment" will be in prospects not $. Paying for an SS may be Wolf as well, which would lower our payroll as well because I doubt Wolf is traded for a $9MM/year SS. Also, you'd pay a SS but not a 3B? I'm not saying Wright is the answer but sticking with some combination of Green/Gamel/McGehee for 1b and 3B for next season sure looks like a pretty big piece short. It doesn't have to be Wright, but I think he's a viable option and someone like him will be considered heavily by Melvin if Prince walks. David Wright at 2 years (2012 and 2013) for $31MM isn't exactly a budget breaker especially given that Prince is gone and Greinke/Marcum could still be extended after 2012 because Wright comes off the books after 2013. Additionally, Wright will be 32 during the 2014 season and would probably not command a mega salary if we were to try and re-sign him.

Thismakes me upset. We should've put in a claim. David Wright is someone we should be targeting in my opinion for next season. He would be a HUGE upgrade at 3B and would be "relatively" affordable and under contract for the next two seasons ($15MM in 2012 and $16MM in 2013). Assuming Prince is gone after this season, a Braun-Wright 3-4 would be a nice fallback option. His numbers have fallen since going into Citi Field and I for one would see a big bump in those numbers if he called Miller Park home. I know the Mets would have likely pulled him back off waivers and would want a big return on him, but I think if we could get an impact bat like him at 3B it would help alleviate the pressure on Braun and Weeks once Prince leaves.

I think the Crawford contract will scare the price down. Crawford has been a huge disappointment and before the season everyone was comparing Reyes' situation to Crawford's. Plus Reyes' injury past will drive the price down as well. I see Reyes getting something along the lines of 6 years $110 million.

I'd take Carlos Santana's 2011 season with 30 games to play for Mat Gamel in 2012. AVG: .238 OBP: .347 SLG: .437 OPS: .784 HR: 19 RBI: 62 Not exactly all-star numbers, but seeing as Gamel should be hitting in the #6 spot or so, it's not the worst thing in the world. It is depressing when you think of replacing Prince's numbers with that though.

My question was more, if all rosters stayed the same in 2012 and the Brewers received identical production in 2012 that they did in 2011 ( i.e. McGehee .240, 10 HR, 60 RBI, Braun .330, 25 HR, 85 RBI, Gallardo 3.40 ERA) in 2012 and simply substituted Gamel for Fielder, how good should we expect the 2012 Brewers to be? No upgrades or boosts to SS or 3B. Identical production in 2012 that we are receiving from all positions minus 1B. The question is more about what should our expectations be in 2012 if our roster stays the same minus Fielder. Even with Greinke and Marcum in 2012, will the Brewers take that big of a hit minus Prince's production that they can still win the NL Central? Put another way, if Fielder was subtracted from the 2011 Brewers and Gamel was the 1B from Opening Day until now, what would our record be? Would we still be in 1st?

I disagree strongly about the Nationals not competing for a couple years. Even with Werth having a very down year and Zimmerman being injured for the first 3 months, they are only 4 games under .500 in a division with arguably the two best teams in all of baseball. Now add Prince to an everyday lineup that already has Zimmerman, Espinosa, Morse, Werth, Ramos and also an ace in Strasburg to an already decent rotation with Zimmermann, Lannan, Detwiler and Wang and you don't think they are in competition next season? As I stand here today, that could be an 85 win team.

I'm curious as to what you guys think our record would be in 2012 if we merely have a repeat of 2011 minus Fielder and an obvious FA departure in K-Rod. In this scenario, all 2011 MLB rosters transfer to 2012 because it is impossible to predict trades and FA. Assuming we receive equivalent production from our position players (minus subbing Gamel for Prince), our rotation gave us similar prodcution and our bullpen was the same (minus K-Rod), are the 2012 Brewers a 90 win team, an 85 win team or a sub .500 team? What should are expectations be in 2012 in that scenario?

In my opinion, Prince will only leave Milwaukee if the deal is for significantly more money like CC Sabathia in 2008. If the Brewers offer 5 years $100MM and another team's offer is say 6 years $120MM, I don't believe Prince will leave. If the Brewers offer 5 years $100MM and another team's offer is 6 years $150MM then Prince will leave. Warning Track Power's Handicapping of the Prince market on August 24: AMERICAN LEAGUE IN: Angels, Orioles MAYBE: Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays OUT: Athletics, Rangers, Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Rays, ANGELS I could see the Angels making a very hard push for Prince, however, a number of things make me doubt it. I think the Wells contract and Weaver extension will limit their finances. They will have to re-sign Santana after 2012 and Haren after 2013. Additionally, based on their past they will not make a signifcantly better offer than the Brewers (see Beltre and Crawford negotiations) which in my mind eliminates them. They also have their future at 1B on the roster already in Mark Trumbo at 1B. I don't see Prince signing anywhere to be even a part time DH. ORIOLES This is the most likely landing spot in my opinion. I don't buy Chris Davis or Mark Reynolds at 1B. Davis at DH, Reynolds at 3B, Prince at 1B. The Orioles went hard after Teixeira and I doubt the Orioles will stand idly by when a guy who will outproduce Teixeira and could hit .300 and possibly hit 40-50 HRs in Camden Yards for the next 5-7 years is available. They have young inexpensive pitching right now that will only get truly expensive near the end of Prince's deal. They have a solid nucleus in the lineup with JJ, Jones, Wieters, Markakis, Reynolds, Davis. This is the only team that I honestly feel will offer Prince something ridiculous like 7 years/$175MM. MARINERS, YANKEES, RED SOX, BLUE JAYS All of these teams don't make sense to me unless they go away from where they are currently. The Yankees have Teixeira and a plethora of candidates for DH (A-Rod, Jeter) coming. The Red Sox have Gonzalez and just gave massive deals to him and Crawford and will have Pedroia (2014), Lester (2013) and Ellsbury (2013) becoming FAs right in the middle of a Prince deal. The Blue Jays don't seem to be a place to give a mega deal, but for some reason represent a "mystery team" for Prince to me. The Mariners only because of their owners pockets and the need for power in Safeco. I doubt Prince wants to be part of a rebuilding project either and I don't see the Mariners being as close as say the Orioles. NATIONAL LEAGUE IN: Brewers MAYBE: Nationals OUT: Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Astros, Reds, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, D-Backs BREWERS Obvious. NATIONALS From my earlier post. The Nationals: 1. Are locked into that ridiculous Jayson Werth contract 2. Will have to sign Ryan Zimmerman, who is their Ryan Braun, to a mega-deal after 2013. 3. Could, if you believe he is for real, have a good portion of what Prince brings to the table in Michael Morse who is in arbitration until after 2013. CUBS, CARDINALS If Pujols leaves for some reason which I don't see, the Cardinals will not sign Prince especially if TLR is still there. Prince and TLR are not a match. Plus Pujols is going back there so its a non-starter. The Cubs will not sign Prince. They are too far away from competing and have too many bad deals like Soriano/Zambrano hamstringing them. If they are able to get out from under these type of contracts somehow then maybe Prince goes there, but like I said with the Mariners, the Cubs are in rebuilding mode and I seriously doubt Prince leaves a playoff contender like the Brewers to go to one of their bigger rivals that are rebuilding. GIANTS Have bigger fish to fry with Lincecum, Cain, Wilson extensions and Belt is at 1B for the future already. Reyes would be the more likely target if I were in the Giants FO. I don't know guys. I really am starting to believe that after this season, the Brewers will give it one more go with Prince and up their offer to something like 7 years $140MM. If they offer that, I don't believe that the Angels, Nationals, Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cubs or Giants will make an offer that will be signifcantly higher than that to persuade Prince to leave. They all may make him an offer of something close to that, but I don't see anyone other than the Orioles that will step up and offer him something crazy like a 7 year $175MM deal.

I love the guy but Prince doesn't strike me as the type to leave too much on the table in terms of dollars. If he was that guy, he would've already been re-signed for the 5 year $100MM contract that was reportedly offered last season. Even at that, a 5 year $100MM ($20MM AAV) would likely be stretching the Brewers ability to re-sign Greinke and Marcum. If Fielder were to re-sign, I would fully expect both a trade of Wolf and Hart, in effort to re-sign Greinke after 2012. Marcum would be the fall back option if Greinke were to walk. No chance they re-sign all three.

How does Desmond fix the SS position longterm? He's had one OK year and regressed from that to a .610 OPS. He's far from an long term answer. Besides I think the Nats will look for a more established CF and Desmond isn't going to bring them that. I'd rather have Nyjer Gomez/Ian Desmond in 2012 than a lot of the other options out there. Who else could fill fill the hole at SS? Judging by the list of FAs below, I'd take Desmond's potential upside if all it cost was Logan Schafer FA after 2011 from Cot's... Yuniesky Betancourt MIL * Ronny Cedeno PIT Adam Everett CLE Rafael Furcal LAD Alex Gonzalez ATL Cesar Izturis BAL John McDonald TOR Augie Ojeda ARI Jose Reyes NYM Nick Punto STL Edgar Renteria CIN Jose Reyes NYM Jimmy Rollins PHI Ramon Santiago DET Marco Scutaro BOS * Jack Wilson SEA

It actually makes perfect sense. The Nationals: 1. Are locked into that ridiculous Jayson Werth contract 2. Will have to sign Ryan Zimmerman, who is their Ryan Braun, to a mega-deal after 2013. 3. Could, if you believe he is for real, have a good portion of what Prince brings to the table in Michael Morse who is in arbitration until after 2013. I know their owner has big pockets, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me for them to go after Prince given the above three items. Additionally, they will likely have to give a large pre-arbitration deal to Strasburg. It doesn't completely rule them out but if I were a Nationals fan or in the Nationals front office, I would be more apt to give a mega-deal to Jose Reyes than Prince Fielder, and deal Ian Desmond for the CF (Denard Span) they are said to be after.

Topper: Hard to believe that was 8 years ago already! You'll thank me later for reminding us all to appreciate the journey, not the destination, while also guarding against overconfidence as fans. While the outcome of that game was gutwrenching, it taught me so many things about being a fan it may have been worth it in the end (at least to me...8 years and a Super Bowl championship later http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif).

Greinke has the ability to be one of the top 5 pitchers in the game. Prince, on the other hand, might be the 3rd best 1B in his own division. 1B production is relatively easy to find and replace. Maybe not at Prince's level, but if you can get 80% of Prince at 10% of the price....Greinke does have that ability but has arguably only shown that ability over an entire season once in his career. While I agree with you that an all-star 1B like Prince is more easily replaceable than an ace SP like Greinke, my point only was that I think the Brewers farm system as currently constituted is more likely to produce another Greinke than another Prince. With that being the case, it might make more sense to re-sign Prince. If we could pencil in Gamel (or equivalent) for 80% of Prince right now, and pay him 10% of Prince ($2MM-$2.5MM per year), I might be more apt to agree with you: (80% of Prince .300/.400/.550-.600, 40 HR, 120 RBI) AVG: .240 OBP: .320 SLG: .440-.480 HR: 32 RBI: 96 However, that line looks eerily similar to a $10MM year player named Carlos Pena. Whose numbers to date this season are: AVG: .225 OBP: .345 SLG: .455 HR: 23 RBI: 67 I think it may be a little more difficult to replace Fielder's production than we all, myself included, tend to let on. Additionally, Prince's departure could have a negative domino effect on the rest of the lineup surroudning the cleanup spot i.e. Braun, Weeks, Hart and McGehee.